Delphimethod

The document describes the Delphi Method, a qualitative forecasting technique. It involves administering multiple rounds of questionnaires to a panel of experts to reach a consensus on predictions. The method was developed in the 1950s for the US Air Force to predict Soviet nuclear capabilities. It outlines the steps: 1) identifying a problem, 2) selecting experts, 3) distributing questionnaires, 4) evaluating responses, 5) interpreting results once consensus is reached. Examples of its use include forecasting terrorism impacts and information technology adoption.