This document provides an overview of expert forecasting techniques for human resource (HR) demand, including index/trend analysis, the Delphi technique, and the Nominal Group Technique (NGT). It discusses the importance of forecasting future HR needs, describes how to conduct trend analysis using historical business indexes and workforce sizes, and outlines the key steps and advantages/disadvantages of the Delphi technique and NGT. These expert forecasting methods involve gathering input from relevant experts through questionnaires or group meetings to determine HR demand estimates.

1. HR Demand
Presented By: Karman Hoang, Krista Laurie
& Melanie Perera

2. Learning
Objectives
• Index/Trend Analysis
• Expert Forecasting
• Two Expert Forecasting
Techniques
a.) Delphi Technique
b.) Nominal Group Technique
• Participation/Game
• Conclusion

3. HR Demand
What are some reasons why is it
important for organizations to
forecast for the future?

4. No Organization is
Psychic …

5. Index/Trend
Analysis
• Reveals the historical
relationship between
the operational index
and the number of
employees required by
the organization
• Sales level is the most
common index used by
organizations
• Organizations also use
trend analysis to
confirm the demand
requirements for direct
and indirect labor

6. 5 Steps to Conduct an Effective Trend
Analysis
1) Select the
appropriate
business/operational
index
2) Track the business
index over time
3) Track the workforce
size over time

7. More Index/Trend
Analysis
4) Calculate the average ratio of the
business index to the workforce size
= Level of sales for each year of
historical data/ number of employees
required to produce that year’s level of
sales
5)Calculate the forecasted demand for
labor
= Annual forecast for business index /
average employee requirement ratio for
each year

8.
Expert
Forecasting
• Detailed process
for stating
assumptions,
considering
potential
organizational and
environmental
changes and
coming up with a
rationale to
support the
numerical
estimate

9. Individuals Considered to be
“Expert Forecasters”
1) Organizations line
managers
2) Organizations HR and
business planning
staff
3) Individuals
possessing detailed
knowledge of the
specific industries
and organizations
activities
4) Federal, provincial
and local government
staff and officials

10. Delphi
Technique

11. About
Delphi
• This forecasting technique was created in
1950
• This technique is a qualitative method for
deciding on specific detailed ideas of long-
run HR demand
• The Delphi Method is based on a structured
process for collecting and distilling
knowledge from a group of experts by means
of a series of questionnaires interspersed
with controlled opinion feedback
• A key aspect of this demand forecasting
technique is that the group of experts that
are chose never meet face to face

12. Advantages of
Delphi
• As the experts do not meet face
to face this avoids many of the
issues that may occur during
face to face communication
among groups as some may feel
reluctant to participate due to:
1.) shyness
2.) perceived lower status or
authority
3.) perceived communication
deficiencies
4.) issues of individual dominance
• Therefore this technique can
allow for each individual to
participate equally and allow for
valid feedback from everyone
• This technique also uses expert
from vase geographical regions
allowing for various inputs

13. Disadvantages of Delphi
• Can be timely and costly as opposed to
using other forecasting techniques
• Since the results cannot be validated
statistically, this process is greatly
dependent on the individual knowledge
and commitment of each of the experts
involved
• If the experts are from one particular
field, they may end up giving
information from this field only as
apposed to be more innovative and
creative

14. Six Steps of the Delphi
Technique
1.) Define and Refine the Issue or
Question
2.) Identify the Experts, Terms, and
Time Horizon
3.) Orient the Experts

15. Six Steps of the Delphi
Technique
4.) Issue the First-Round
Questionnaire
5.) Issue the First-Round
Questionnaire Summary and the
Second Round of Questionnaires
6.) Continue Issuing Questionnaires

16. Nominal Group
Technique

17. What Is
It?
• A long run forecasting technique that
uses expert assessments
• Studies have shown that NGT is effective
during brainstorming sessions because
it allows all participants to have an
equal voice
• The study also predicted that NGT will
replace focus groups as the qualitative
research method of choice and reduce
the need for administrative surveys

18. How Is It Different From
The Delphi Technique
• The group meets face to
face and interact
• Each demand estimate
is considered to be the
property of the group
minimizing potential for
negative behavior (i.e.
personal attacks,
dominance etc.)
• Expert forecast is
determined by a secret
vote of all members

19. The Seven Steps To
Carry Out The NGT
Process
There are seven steps to carry out the NGT process
3.Define and refine the issue or question and the
relevant time horizon
4.Select the experts
5.Issue the HR demand statements to the experts
6.Apply expert knowledge, state assumptions and
prepare an estimate
7.Meet face to face
8.Discuss the demand estimates and assumptions
9.Vote secretly to determine the expert demand
assessment

20. It’s Game Time!
BANK IT!

21. Reference
s
Belcourt, McBey, Strategic Human
Resources Planning, Nelson
Canada, 4th edition.