Workshop on Alignment & implementation of National Action programmes with the UNCCD 10-year Strategy in the Arab Region League of Arab States (18- 20 June 2014), Dubai - UAE UN-ESCWA Mr Tarek Ismael

1. Tarek Sadek
Water Resources and Climate Change Officer
Sustainable Development and Productivity Division
Beirut, Lebanon
Alignment with the 10-Year Strategic Plan
of UNCCD: Climate Change, Water in
relation to Land Degradation

2. UNCCD: The 10-year Strategic Plan and
Framework
• Strategic objective 1: To improve the living
conditions of affected populations….
– Expected impact 1.2: Affected populations’ socio-
economic and environmental vulnerability to climate
change, climate variability and drought are reduced.
• Strategic Objective 2: to improve the affected
ecosystems….
– Expected impact 2.2: the vulnerability of affected
ecosystems to climate change, climate variability
and drought is reduced.
. 2

3. UNCCD: The 10-year Strategic Plan and
Framework…..(cont’d)
• Operational objective 1: Advocacy, awareness
raising and education
– Expected outcome 1.1: Desertification/land
degradation and drought issues and the synergies
with climate change adaptation and mitigation and
biodiversity conservation are effectively
communicated …...
– Expected outcome 1.2: Desertification/land
degradation and drought issues are addressed in
relevant international forums, including those
pertaining to … , climate change adaptation, ….
. 3

4. The UNCCD: The 10-year Strategic Plan and
Framework…..(cont’d)
• Operational objective 2: Policy Framework
– Outcome 2.5: Mutually reinforcing measures among
desertification/land degradation action programmes
and biodiversity and climate change mitigation and
adaptation are introduced or strengthened so as to
enhance the impact of interventions.
• Operational Objective 3: Science, technology
and knowledge
– Outcome 3.4: Knowledge of the interventions
between climate change adaptation, drought
mitigation and restoration of degraded land in
affected areas are improved to develop tools to
assist decision-making.. 4

5.  To assess the impact of climate change on freshwater
resources in the Arab Region through a consultative and
integrated regional initiative that seeks to identify the
socio-economic and environmental vulnerability caused by
climate change impacts on water resources based on
regional specificities.
The Regional Initiative aims to provide a common platform for
addressing and responding to climate change impacts on
freshwater resources in the Arab region by serving as the
basis for dialogue, priority setting and policy formulation on
climate change adaptation at the regional level.
Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Impact of
Climate Change on Water Resources and
Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region
(RICCAR)
Objective

6. Implementing Partners
RICCAR Partnerships
LAS
Donors Research Institutes supporting Climate Ensemble
• Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research/
King Abdulaziz University (CECCR/KAU) - KSA
• King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
(KAUST ) - KSA
• Climate Services Center (CSC) - Germany
Cairo Office

7. RICCAR Implementation Framework: Four Pillars
Climate Change
Impact Assessment
Climate Change
Vulnerability Assessment
Awareness Raising & Information Dissemination
Baseline Review & Knowledge Management
Capacity Building & Institutional Strengthening
for Water Ministries, Meteorological Offices, Arab Research Centers

8. Climate Change
modeling
Hydrological modeling
and water resources
management
- Impacts on water
resources
- Long term scenario
development in water
policies
Climate
database
Models (GCM
and RCM)
Integrated model-based approach for impact and
vulnerability assessments
Socio-economic
vulnerability and impact
assessment
Agriculture
Food Security
Health
Industry
Poverty &
Employment
Biodiversity
Human
Settlement

9. Impact Assessment Component:
Pursuing a Coordinated Ensemble for Climate & Hydrological Modeling
Different
GCMs
for the
Same RCP
GCMs at
300 km x 300 km
Ensemble
Average
used to
reduce
uncertainty
at level of
RCMs &
RHMs
Ensembles
compare
findings of
different
RCMs &
RHMs
applied for
same RCP
& Domain
ExtremeEvents

10. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
New basis for Climate Modeling & IPCC Projections for AR5
Worst Case Scenario
Graph adapted from: Meinshausen et al.,2010
CORDEX
CORDEX

11. Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change:
Areas considered for regional averages in IPCC AR5
IPCC WG1 Assessment Report 5 - Annex I
DRAFT – 30 September 2013

12. Regional Climate Modeling over the Arab Domain

13. LAS
RICCAR
RCM
(Institute)
GCM Historic
al
1950-
2005
RCP2.6
2006-
2100
RCP4.5
2006-
2100
RCP8.5
2006-
2100
RCA4
(SMHI)
EC-Earth
50km
✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
RCA4
(SMHI)
EC-Earth
25km
✔ ✔
RCA4
(SMHI)
CNRM
50km
✔ ✔ ✔
RCA4
(SMHI)
GFDL-
ESM
50km
✔ ✔ ✔
RCA4
(SMHI)
GFDL-
ESM
25km
✔ ✔
na
(Kaust)
GFDL-
ESM-1
25km
✔ ✔ ✔
na
(Kaust)
GFDL-
ESM-2
25km
✔ ✔ ✔
Remo
(CSC)
MPI-ESM
50km
✔ ✔ ✔
RegCM4
(Kau)
HadGEM2
50km
✔ ✔ ✔
RegCM4
(Kau)
MPI-ESM
50km
✔ ✔ ✔
RegCM4
(Kau)
GFDL-
ESM
50km
✔ ✔ ✔
✔ Completed ✔ Running ✔ Planned
CORDEX-MENA/Arab Ensemble Matrix

14. CORDEX-MENA domain and sub-regions
• sub-regions for evaluation and analysis represent different
climatology in the CORDEX-MENA region (annual cycle etc.)
• more sub-regions can be defined on regional/local scales

15. Projected changes in temperature: RCP45
• similar patterns in both global and regional ensembles
• some differences on regional scale
global - GCMs and regional – RCA4(GCMs) ensembles
SUMMER

16. Projected changes in temperature: RCP85
global - GCMs and regional – RCA4(GCMs) ensembles
SUMMER
• larger warming from 2041 for RCP85 than for RCP45
• in coming decades both RCP45 and RCP85 are similar

17. Projected changes in precipitation: RCP45
• differences in global and regional ensembles
• precipitation has larger variability than temperature
global - GCMs and regional – RCA4(GCMs) ensembles
SUMMER2006

18. Projected changes in precipitation: RCP85
• signal becomes stronger with stronger radiative forcing in both
global and regional ensembles but some differences
• local-scale process are more important for precipitation than for
temperature (soil moisture – atmospheric feedback etc.)
global - GCMs and regional – RCA4(GCMs) ensembles
SUMMER

19. Projected changes in Wind Extremes
• an increase in wind extremes in south-west of the Arab Peninsula
• wind extremes have large variability
• more simulations are necessary (different RCMs/GCMs pairs)
• 20-yr return values: an event which occurs once in 20 years
• based on the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

20. Maximum length of dry spell (days)

21. Hydrological Modeling
RCM generates:
• Temperature
(max, min, mean)
• Precipitation
• Evaporation rate
• Humidity level
• Atmospheric
pressure
A- Hydrological Modeling
B- Water Management
Hydro Models can
better generate:
• Stream runoff
• Soil moisture
• Groundwater
recharge
• Groundwater
level
Water Models
could then assess:
• Water Level
• Water Demand
• Consumption
by sector
• Water balance
• Reservoir level

22. LAS
RICCAR
Hydrological Modelling
Runoff - future
Season runoff in mm/seasonHype Model
Change

23. Vulnerability Assessment

24. Vulnerability Assessment Framework
Exposure Sensitivity
Impact
Adaptive
Capacity
Vulnerability
IPCC-oriented definition of vulnerability

25. 25
Vulnerability Assessment Impact Chain for Water
Availability
Source: Kerstin Fritzsche, adelphi advisor to VA-WG,
RICCAR EGM-5, 12 December 2013

26. 26
Vulnerability Assessment Impact Chain for Water
Availability
Source: Kerstin Fritzsche, adelphi advisor to VA-WG,
RICCAR EGM-5, 12 December 2013

27. Precipitation
Runoff
Temperature
Soil moisture
etc.
Vegetation cover
Change in landuse
LULC
Crop sensitivity
Soil erosion rate
Water–erosion
susceptibility
Linking CC to Land degradation
Land degradation Models
Remote Sensing &
GIS analysis
Vulnerability mapping
e.g. Water-erosion
susceptibility and sensitivity
Linkage of climate and Hydrological Models to Land
Degradation Models
Climate Change
Future Scenario
Inputs
Outputs

28. Thank you!
Additional information on the
Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on
Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region
(RICCAR)
available at:
www.escwa.un.org/RICCAR