"Water for Agriculture in Latin America and the Caribbean Under a Changing Climate" is University of Nebraska research by Robert Oglesby, Clinton Rowe, Azar Abadi and Rachindra Mawalagedara. Please attribute accordingly. The research was presented Sept. 19, 2017 at the Faculty Fellow Dialogue, hosted by the Robert B. Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute at the University of Nebraska.

1. Water for Agriculture in Latin
America and the Caribbean
Under a Changing Climate
Robert Oglesby1,2,3, Clinton Rowe1,3, Azar Abadi1, and Rachindra Mawalagedara1,3,*
1Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
2School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
3Daugherty Water for Food Institute, University of Nebraska
*Former DWFI Postdoctoral researcher, now at ISU

2. Why Latin America and the Caribbean?
Potential Risks
• Regions potentially at severe risk due to future
climate change
• Need for properly resolved surface climate in
the region, due to its complex topography and
nearness to oceans
• Existing knowledge gaps in dynamical
downscaling
Extreme Events
• Latin America and the Caribbean are regions
presently at grave risk to a variety of extreme
climate events.
• These include flooding rains, damaging winds,
drought, heat waves, and in high elevation
mountainous regions, excessive snowfalls.
• Such extreme events are likely to become even
worse under projections of future climate
changes

3. Why use a Regional Climate Model?
Our results suggest that for proper simulation
of both mean climate and extreme events:
• A spatial resolution of 4 km is required in
regions of complex mountainous topography.
• A somewhat coarser resolution of 12 km is
adequate in regions without much
topographic relief and where differing land
cover accounts for most of the spatial
heterogeneity.
Leung et al., 2012

4. Background: What we have done so far
• Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)
model simulations for Mesoamerica and
the Caribbean.
• More comprehensive series of
individualized simulations for
Guatemala, Honduras and for Bolivia.
• Regional and country-level workshops
• Conducted a number of workshops to provide training to local users charged with
addressing climate change impacts for their countries.

5. High-Resolution Climate Change Scenarios for
Mesoamerica
Spatial resolution
of domains
d01: 36 km
d02: 12 km
d03-d06: 4 km
d01

6. Effects of Elevation on Temperature

7. GUATEMALA
Spatial resolution
of domains
d01: 36 km
d02: 12 km
d03: 4 km
d01
d02
d03

8. Historic Simulations
for Model Verification
• Purpose is to verify model capabilities by
comparing to actual station observations
• WRF driven by NCEP reanalyses as a proxy for
real large-scale forcing
• Two 10-year periods simulated
• 1971-1980
• 2001-2010
Climate Change
Downscaling Simulations
• Purpose is to compute changes forced by
increasing greenhouse gas forcing
• Forced by NCAR CCSM4 GCM simulation of the
RCP 8.5 emission scenario
• Two 10-year periods simulated
• ‘Present-day’ control (2011-2020)
• Future climate change (2061-2070)
Simulations for Guatemala

9. July
Temperature
GCM
WRF
Mean Temperature (PD) Difference (FT – PD)
PD: 2011-2020
FT: 2061-2070

10. July
Precipitation
GCM
WRF
Mean Precipitation (PD) Difference (FT – PD)
PD: 2011-2020
FT: 2061-2070

11. BOLIVIA
d01
Spatial resolution
of domains
d01: 36 km
d02: 12 km
d03: 4 km

12. Model Scenario Years # years
NCEP 1979-2012 33
CCSM4 RCP 2.6 2006-2020 2066-2080 30
RCP 4.5 2006-2040 2066-2080 50
RCP 8.5 2006-2020 2056-2080 40
ECHAM RCP 2.6 2006-2020 2066-2080 30
RCP 4.5 2006-2020 2066-2080 30
RCP 8.5 2006-2020 2056-2080 40
MIROC RCP 2.6 2006-2020 2066-2080 30
RCP 4.5 2006-2020 2066-2080 30
RCP 8.5 2006-2020 2056-2080 40
A comprehensive set of WRF simulations were carried out for Bolivia

13. Temperature Differences for July
Scenario: RCP8.5
Domain Resolution: 4 km
Difference = (2066-2075) – (2006-2015)

14. Precipitation Differences for July
Scenario: RCP8.5
Domain Resolution: 4 km
Difference = (2066-2075) – (2006-2015)

15. Lessons Learned
• Engaging countries across the region has been very productive, but we see
a real need for more specialized training and simulations for individual
countries.
• The LAC region contains a tremendous reservoir of talent. Our approach
both allows this talent to develop expertise and, most importantly, convey
that new knowledge to policy-makers.
• It is crucial at some point to have the technical and policy people together
in the same room.
• The technical people are highly motivated and highly skilled, but often
lacking in basic climate expertise. Back home, they wear several disciplinary
hats.

29. Model output download
• ability to select subset of output
• temporally
• spatially
• by variable