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The 2020 election

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An update heading into Iowa

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The 2020 election

  1. 1. January 2020 The 2020 Election: An Update Heading Into Iowa
  2. 2. State of the Nation
  3. 3. The Backdrop More Divided Than Ever There’s declining faith in government, leadership, and especially the media. Republicans and Democrats trust two very different sets of media sources, and think all others are biased.Those we follow on social media keep us in our “bubble.” Deep Distrust In Institutions & The Media “Fake News” Over half of Americans say it’s hard to differentiate between facts and misleading information. Most have little confidence in social media and search engines to stop the spread of misinformation. Polling shows deep divides by generation, education, race, urban/rural and economics. Republicans can win elections nationally with their base. Democrats need to appeal to a more diverse range of voters and knit together various constituencies. Sources: NORC, n = 1,032 adults, 10/15-28/2019 (https://static.usafacts.org/public/resources/AP_NORC_Poll_2019.pdf?_ga=2.76729936.432750882.1579812736-33060052.1579812736); Gallup, n = 1,015 US adults, 1/3-16/2019 (https://news.gallup.com/poll/1597/confidence-institutions.aspx); AP (https://www.ap.org/explore/divided-america/);New York Times, 1/24/2020 (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/24/opinion/sunday/democrats-republicans- polarization.html?searchResultPosition=1)
  4. 4. After dipping in late-2019, President Trump’s approval has returned to inauguration levels.29-Jan-17 28-Feb-17 31-Mar-17 30-Apr-17 31-May-17 30-Jun-17 31-Jul-17 31-Aug-17 30-Sep-17 31-Oct-17 30-Nov-17 31-Dec-17 31-Jan-18 28-Feb-18 31-Mar-18 30-Apr-18 31-May-18 30-Jun-18 31-Jul-18 31-Aug-18 30-Sep-18 31-Oct-18 30-Nov-18 31-Dec-18 31-Jan-19 28-Feb-19 31-Mar-19 30-Apr-19 31-May-19 30-Jun-19 31-Jul-19 31-Aug-19 30-Sep-19 31-Oct-19 30-Nov-19 31-Dec-19 January 2017 January 2020 47% disapprove 45% approve 53% disapprove 44% approve Source: Gallup, 1/29/2017-1/15/2020, n=1500 Adults Daily (https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx) Peak disapproval: 60% after Kavanaugh/during the 2018 midterms Peak approval: 46% after the release of the Mueller Report 15-Jan-20 Approval by party Democrats 10% Independents 37% Republicans 88%
  5. 5. Americans are divided on impeachment, and minds haven’t changed. 1-Sep-19 16-Sep-19 1-Oct-19 16-Oct-19 31-Oct-19 15-Nov-19 30-Nov-19 15-Dec-19 30-Dec-19 14-Jan-20 March 2019 January 2020 45% don’t support 45% support 46% don’t support 50% support Source: FiveThirtyEight, March 1, 2019 - January 15, 2020, (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/impeachment-polls/); CNN/SSRS, n = 1,156 adults, 1/16-19/2020 (http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/01/20/rel1a.-.trump,.impeachment.pdf); Pew Research, n=12,638 adults, 1/6/20-1/19/20 ( https://www.people-press.org/2020/01/22/by-a-narrow-margin-americans-say- senate-trial-should-result-in-trumps-removal/) Nov. 15: Ukraine call transcript released Nov. 13: House Intelligence Cmte. hearings begin Dec. 4: House Judiciary Cmte. hearings begin Sept. 18: News about Ukraine call breaks Sept. 26: Whistleblower complaint released 63% say the President has probably done things that are illegal, either in office or while running for President
  6. 6.  Economic confidence is at its highest point since 2000  GDP growth has consistently remained between 2% to 3%  Wage growth is up to 3%, the highest it has been since 2008  Unemployment is down to 3.5%, the lowest it has been in 50 years Farmers have taken a hit, with agricultural exports to China cut in half since 2017 Manufacturing continues to struggle with unemployment up in swing states (Michigan and Pennsylvania) The economy is stable even though trade wars have had negative impacts. Sources: Gallup Economic Confidence Index (https://news.gallup.com/poll/283940/economic-confidence-highest-point-2000.aspx);Markets Insider, 1/21/2020 (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/9-charts-comparing- trump-economy-to-obama-bush-administrations-2019-9-1028833119#unemployment-shot-up-dramatically-during-the-financial-crisis-at-the-end-of-george-w-bush-s-and-the-start-of-barack-obama-s-terms-before-steadily- dropping-for-most-of-the-decade-2);Markets Insider, 12/5/2019 (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-wars-tried-rescuing-manufacturing-agriculture-worse-off-now-2019-12-1028741598); Washington Post, 4/5/2019 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/04/05/trump-has-two-big-problems-pennsylvania-michigan/?arc404=true)
  7. 7. 3% 7% 17% 72% 11% 41% 37% 10% Not sure Getting worse About the same Getting better Republicans and Democrats have different takes on how the economy is doing. Source: The Economist/YouGov, n = 1,500 US adults, 1/19-21/2020 (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/alq58zq5zt/econTabReport.pdf) Feelings about the Economy Republicans Democrats
  8. 8. Most are confident in President Trump’s ability to handle economic policy and trade. 34% 43% 43% 43% 45% 46% 50% 53% Work effectively with Congress Make good decisions about health care policy Handle an international crisis Make wise decisions about immigration policy Use military force wisely Make good appointments to federal courts Negotiate favorable trade deals Make good decisions about economic policy Source: Pew Research, n=12,638 adults, 1/6/20-1/19/20 (https://www.people-press.org/2020/01/22/by-a-narrow-margin-americans-say-senate-trial-should-result-in-trumps-removal/) Confidence in PresidentTrump to…
  9. 9. The Presidential Race
  10. 10. Big implications beyond 2020 Cementing theTrump Doctrine PresidentTrump has appointed two Supreme Court justices, tipping the scales more to the right. Several new conservative-leaning federal judges will also shape American law beyond the next President’s term. The two oldest judges are also Dem appointees, so more retirements under PresidentTrump could transform the bench even further. Filling the Bench Who Draws the Congressional Maps? Whoever wins control in individual states this year will draw congressional district lines for the next 10 years. If PresidentTrump wins reelection, his controversial policies and style become doctrine. His mandate could continue to challenge or alter historically bipartisan democratic norms and processes.
  11. 11. Americans are focused on health care and the economy. 30% 32% 33% 39% 40% 41% Climate change Foreign policy Immigration Gun policy The economy Health care Source: CNN/SSRS, n = 1,156, 1/16-19/2020 (http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/01/22/rel1b.-.2020.pdf) Top Issues for Democrats: Health care Climate change Gun policy Top Issues for Republicans: The economy Gun policy Immigration Top Issues for Independents: The economy Health care Foreign policy
  12. 12. Analysts predict another close race decided in a few key states. Safe Democrat Likely Democrat Tossup Likely Republican Safe Republican Source: Cook Political Report (270towin.com) 188 28 32 85 42 38 125Electoral vote counter: Democrat: 248 Republican: 205
  13. 13. The Trump campaign’s online game is strong, and the base is enthusiastic. OnlineTactics  Taking geofencing and microtargeting techniques to new heights.  Online ad spending has been heavily focused on list building and fundraising. Source: New York Times, 1/29/2020 (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/29/opinion/trump-digital-campaign-2020.html); Washington Post, 12/9/2019(https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/12/09/critics-say-facebooks- powerful-ad-tools-may-imperil-democracy-politicians-love-them/). The Economist/YouGov, n – 1,500 US adults, 1/19-21/2020 (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/alq58zq5zt/econTabReport.pdf);Washington Post-ABC News, n=1,004 US adults, 1/20-23,2020 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/washington-post-abc-news-poll-jan-20-23-2020/50b73242-0f99-4709-b8bc-7e0d56bfe0f3/) 93% of those who say they’ll vote forTrump are enthusiastic about doing so in the general election this year. 81% (-12 deficit) of those who say they’ll vote for the Democrat in the general are enthusiastic about it.
  14. 14. Field of 2020 Democratic Presidential candidates is historically large. Democrats have already witnessed a protracted nomination fight. They started with 28 candidates; now down to 11.
  15. 15. Regardless of nominee, any match up against President Trump is close. President Trump: Source: Washington Post-ABC News, n=880 registered voters, 1/20-23,2020 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/washington-post-abc-news-poll-jan-20-23-2020/50b73242-0f99-4709-b8bc-7e0d56bfe0f3/) VP Joe Biden 50% 46% Sen. Sanders 49% 47% Sen. Warren 48% 48% Mayor Pete Buttigieg 45% 48% Sen. Klobuchar 48% 47% Mike Bloomberg 49% 46% Democratic nominee: All fall within the margin of error.
  16. 16. Several toss-ups in swing states. Democrats are up in Pennsylvania and Michigan. VP Joe Biden Sen. Sanders Sen. WarrenState Arizona Tie Trump +1 Trump +2 Trump +3 Not asked Florida Biden +2 Sanders +6 Warren +2 Tie Not asked Wisconsin Biden +4 Sanders +1 Trump +3 Trump +2 Not asked Pennsylvania Biden +9 Sanders +5 Warren +5 Not asked Not asked Michigan Biden +6 Sanders +5 Warren +3 Buttigieg +4 Bloomberg +7 Mayor Pete Buttigieg Source: Public Policy Polling, n = 706 Arizona voters, 1/2-4/2020 (https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ArizonaJanuary2020.pdf); FAU, n = 1,285 Florida voters, 1/9-12/2020 (https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2020/biden-widening-lead-in-florida-where-trunp-has-fallen-behind.php); Marquette Law Poll, n = 800 Wisconsin adults, 1/8-12/2020 (https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/MLSP57Toplines.pdf); Muhlenberg College, n = 410, 11/4-9/2019 (https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/academics/polisci/PA_PresElec_Fall2019__Report_Revised.pdf);EPIC-MRA, n = 600 likely Michigan voters, 1/9-12/2020 (https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/01/15/mike-bloomberg-other-democrats-lead-donald-trump-michigan-poll/4469175002/) Mike Bloomberg
  17. 17. The Democratic Primary
  18. 18. Biden has maintained his lead nationally. Sanders’ rise is getting a lot of attention. Bloomberg is gaining on the outside. 33% 40% 35% 32% 30% 28% 32% 31% 30% 26% 27% 29% 27% 26% 28% 28% 28% 27% 28% 19% 16% 17% 16% 17% 15% 16% 16% 18% 17% 14% 16% 17% 18% 16% 19% 19% 19% 23% 8% 7% 6% 8% 6% 5% 6% 5% 4% 5% 6% 5% 8% 8% 11% 9% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 11% 13% 15% 15% 17% 18% 17% 26% 23% 21% 21% 14% 16% 15% 16% 15% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 3% 4% 3% 5% 5% 7% 8% Rolling Monthly Polling Average Nationwide Pete Buttigieg Joe Biden Bernie Sanders ElizabethWarren Michael Bloomberg Amy Klobuchar Source: RealClearPolitics, 5/1-1/28/2020 (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html)
  19. 19. Although Sanders’ supporters have been consistently passionate, Biden is seen as the unifier. Source: CNN/SRSS, n = 1,156, 1/16-19/2020 (https://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/01/22/rel1b.-.2020.pdf) What the Democratic voters say 14% 15% 24% 29% 34% 38% Amy Klobuchar Michael Bloomberg Pete Buttigieg Elizabeth Warren Joe Biden Bernie Sanders -1 -9 -12 -3 n/a n/a Enthusiasm Change from Oct. Biden:  Best chance to beatTrump  Will unite the country  Will unite the party  Agrees with us on issues that matter  Better understands our problems Sanders: 57% say its more important for the party to nominate a candidate with a strong chance of beatingTrump.
  20. 20. Sanders leads Democrats in fundraising. $46m $35m $21m $25m $23m $17m $11m $3m DonaldTrump BernieSanders ElizabethWarren PeteButtigieg JoeBiden AndrewYang AmyKlobuchar TulsiGabbard Cycle total Q4 fundraising % change from Q3 Source: Yahoo Finance, 1/3/2020 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/andrew-yangs-65-fundraising-surge-tops-democratic-candidates-in-q-4-220201691.html?guccounter=1); Axios, 1/2/2020 (https://www.axios.com/trump-fundraising-4th-quarter-2019-ea9e6f65-1d6b-4bb8-8ec8-dca93ea0fe3d.html) Displaying amounts in millions. Only showing those who have reported Q4 fundraising as of January 31, 2020. $71m $76m $60m $32m $10m$25m -14% +65% +36% +45% $96m $144m +12% +29% +138% +13% This doesn’t factor Bloomberg’s self-funded campaign.
  21. 21. Newspaper Location Endorsed National ElizabethWarren and Amy Klobuchar Des Moines, IA ElizabethWarren Davenport, IA Amy Klobuchar Sioux City, IA Joe Biden Storm Lake, IA ElizabethWarren Manchester, NH Amy Klobuchar Keene, NH Amy Klobuchar Endorsements in early states favor Warren and Klobuchar.
  22. 22. A Closer Look At Iowa
  23. 23. What you need to know about the Iowa Caucus Date: Monday, February 3 Things to keep in mind: Candidates who do not receive at least 15% during the first expression of support will not be viable at that precinct. Supporters of those receiving less than 15% will realign to a viable candidate or can join with other non-viable groups to reach 15%. Number of delegates: 49 (41 pledged, 8 super) Registration details: Participants must be registered with the party they are caucusing. Iowans can register and change party registration at their caucus precinct until the caucus begins. Chance for record turnout: Recent Iowa polling shows a close race, so turnout will be key – especially for candidates like Buttigieg and Klobuchar. Source: Monmouth University, n – 405 likely Iowa Democratic voters, 1/9-12/2020 (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_ia_011320.pdf/); 270 to win (https://www.270towin.com/2020-democratic-nomination/iowa-caucus); Morning Consult, n = 5,000, December 2019 (https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/)
  24. 24. 19% 15% 10% 11% 6% 24% 20% 16% 15% 10% 30% 25% 18% 19% 13% Bernie Sanders Joe Biden Pete Buttigieg Elizabeth Warren Amy Klobuchar Recent Iowa polling has been volatile, but more competitive. It’s still anyone’s race. Lowest polling Highest polling Average polling Source: Real Clear Politics Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus averages, 1/20-27/2020 (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html) Latest Iowa Polling – January 20-27, 2020
  25. 25. A look ahead to February: Sanders and Biden ahead. STATE LATEST POLLING RATING New Hampshire Sanders: 29% Biden: 22% Warren: 16% Buttigieg: 10% Lean Sanders Nevada Biden: 19% / Sanders: 18% Warren: 11% Buttigieg: 8% Toss-up South Carolina Biden: 36% Steyer: 15% Sanders: 14% Warren: 10% Biden Source: Emerson, n = 407 likely New Hampshire Democratic voters, 1/23-26/2020 (https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/01/27/bernie-sanders-surges-to-top-in-latest-poll/); Suffolk University, n = 500 Nevada Democratic caucus-goers, 1/8-11/2020 (https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2020/1_14_2020_marginals_pdftxt.pdf); Fox News, n – 808 South Carolina Democratic primary voters, 1/5-8/2020 (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox- news-poll-january-5-8-2020)
  26. 26. Keep in Mind… Iowa is first, but it doesn’t reflect the entirety of the Democratic party (neither does New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina). SuperTuesday is only one month away.
  27. 27. What to Watch  Three tickets out of Iowa, but who will be 1, 2, and 3?  Biden and Sanders are the clear front-runners and need to meet those expectations. Can Sanders sustain his momentum? Has the impeachment narrative hurt Biden’s chances? If either finish below second, pundits and top Democrats will signal trouble.  Warren, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar will be looking to break through and propel their campaign through February. Who will exceed expectations and become the story of the night?  Bloomberg’s rise. Bloomberg’s poll numbers are rising but he’s new to the ballot, skipping the early states, and focusing on SuperTuesday.  Tweeter-in-Chief. What will PresidentTrump have to say about the results and the candidates? It’s anyone’s guess.
  28. 28. Upcoming calendar Date Event Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses Feb. 7 Debate in Manchester, NH (ABC News, WMUR, andApple News) Feb. 11 New Hampshire primary Feb. 19 Debate in LasVegas, NV (NBC News, MSNBC, andThe Nevada Independent) Feb. 22 Nevada caucuses (Democrats only) Feb. 25 Debate in Charleston, SC (CBS News, the Congressional Black Caucus Institute, andTwitter) Feb. 29 South Carolina primary (Democrats only) March 3 SuperTuesday (Alabama, California, Massachusetts, N. Carolina,Oklahoma,Tennessee,Texas,Vermont,Virginia) July 13-16 Democratic convention in Milwaukee, WI Aug. 24-27 Republican convention in Charlotte, NC Nov. 3 Election Day
  29. 29. GPG Research & Insight GPG has a full-service research and insight team offering an innovative suite of qualitative, quantitative, digital and analytics services. We go beyond the standard Q&A and use research to make strategic recommendations on complex issues and political topics that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: publicopinion@gpg.com

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