COVID-19 analysis for June 19, 2020

1. Caveats and Comments
1
Overview:
This is my analysis, not Stanford’s. It is simply a set of regressions in R to understand the trajectory of COVID. It is not confidential and can be freely shared. The R
program code and all previous PowerPoint files are available at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19/. Please contact me at steven.shafer@Stanford.edu if
you would like to be added or removed from the recipient list. Suggestions are most welcome! You are welcome to use the R code on GitHub for any purpose. If
you create new graphs, please let me know, as I may want to add them to my analyses.
I am attempting to keep the analysis and commentary as apolitical as possible. I am now including partisan lean as a metric. This is just more data to understand
the COVID epidemic.
I try to provide a daily update in the morning. However, as an anesthesiologist at Stanford, when I have clinical duties and USAFacts has not updated the US data
by the time I leave for Stanford the analysis will be delayed.
There is a lot of information on the figures. If something isn’t clear, please see the explanation on slide 2.
Data sources:
• USA Case Data: https://usafactsstatic.blob.core.windows.net/public/data/covid-19/covid_confirmed_usafacts.csv
• USA Death Data: https://usafactsstatic.blob.core.windows.net/public/data/covid-19/covid_deaths_usafacts.csv
• USA Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-tracking-data/master/data/states_daily_4pm_et.csv
• Global Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv
• Global Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
• Global Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.csv
• Mobility Data: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/Global_Mobility_Report.csv
• Partisan Lean: MIT Election Data and Science Lab: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ/HEIJCQ
Models:
1. Future projections are based on the Gompertz function: log 𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 = 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 + 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 − 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 1 − 𝑒−𝑘 𝑡 . This is a
naïve asymptotic model. k is the rate constant, such that log(2) / k = time to 50% rise. t is the number of days. Wikipedia has a good description:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function. The Gompertz function is estimated from the last 3 weeks of data for cumulative cases. These points
appear as red dots in the figures.
2. The rate of changed is based on a simple linear regression of new cases over the last 10 days, divided by the number of new cases yesterday.
Locations
The locations for the modeling are where Pamela and I have family and friends, or locations of interest to friends and colleagues. Additionally, some locations
figure prominently in news reports (e.g., China, South Korea, Sweden, Brazil) or have significant economic impact on the United States (e.g., Japan, Canada,
Mexico). I am happy to add locations, just let me know.
Stay safe, well, resilient, and kind.
Steve Shafer
steven.shafer@Stanford.edu

2. 2,586,092
152,804
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-05-27
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,662,302 -- Deaths: 98,220 -- Deaths per 10,000: 3.1 -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change in Cases: -0.5%
2
Brown dots:
cumulative tests
Red dots: cumulative cases
used to estimate Gompertz
function, presently set to last
3 weeks
Red line: predicted cumulative
cases based on the Gompertz
function estimated from the red
dots
Red number: total cases
on June 30th, based on
the Gompertz function
estimated from the red
dots
Black number: total
cases on June 30th,
based on the total
cases (see above) *
case mortality (see
below)
Black line: predicted
cumulative deaths, calculated
as red line (above) * mortality
(see below)
Red line: predicted new cases
based on the Gompertz
function estimated from the
red dots
Axis for deaths / day, usually
1/5th of the axis for cases /
day on the left side of the
figure.
Funny bump: an artifact of the
Gompertz function, which
mathematically requires an
inflection in total cases.
Green line: linear regression
over 10 days, used to
calculate percent increase /
decrease (see below)
Daily change in cases,
calculated as the slope of the
green line (above left) /
number of new cases
yesterday.
Case mortality:
cumulative deaths
/ cumulative cases.
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
not used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Deaths / day,
axis is on the left
Cumulative deaths
/ population *
10,000
Blue line: today
Blue dots: cumulative cases not
used to estimate Gompertz
function
Yesterday’s
total cases
and deaths
Axis for cases / day.
Axis for deaths / day
appears to the right.
Geographic
location
Date of analysis,
also shown as
blue vertical line
below
Explanation of the figures

3. USA
2,436,357
131,694
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-06-19
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,191,052 -- Deaths: 118,434 -- Case Mortality: 5.4% -- Daily Change: +1.5% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
3

4. Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
34,295
1,308
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam projection as of 2020-06-19
0
200
400
600
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 33,377 -- Deaths: 1,273 -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: +1.0% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
4

5. Western Europe
1,360,763
164,336
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Western Europe projection as of 2020-06-19
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,325,733 -- Deaths: 160,106 -- Case Mortality: 12.1% -- Daily Change: +0.3% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
5

6. Change in New Cases per Day
New cases are:
Increasing > +3%
Increasing between +1% and +3%
No Change (-1% to +1%)
Decreasing between -1% and -3%
Decreasing > -3%
New cases by state as of 2020-06-19
6

7. Change in New Deaths per Day
New deaths are:
Increasing > +0.5%
Increasing between +0.1% and +0.5%
No Change (-0.1% to +0.1%)
Decreasing between -0.1% and -0.5%
Decreasing > -0.5%
New deaths by state as of 2020-06-19
7

8. Deaths per million
HI
WY
AK
ME
VT
WV
MT
ID
KS
ND
OK
OR
NV
WA
UT
TX
KY
WI
SC
VA
SD
TN
MI
CO
FL
NC
CA
AR
AL
OH
IA
MO
DE
MN
IN
NY
LA
NM
NH
NE
PA
MS
AZ
GA
CT
MD
IL
DC
MA
NJ
RI
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Averagedeathsperdaypermillionpopulation
Averaged over past 7 days
US COVID-19 Death Rates
8

9. Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
9

10. Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
10

11. Percent Population Tested
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
PercentPopulationTested
Percent Population
11

12. Percent Population Tested
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
PercentPopulationTested
Percent Population
12

13. Percent Positive Tests
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
PercentPositive(%)
Percent Positive Tests Over Last 28 Days
13

14. CDC Covid-NET Hospitalizations
Tennessee Utah
New Mexico New York Ohio Oregon
Iowa Maryland Michigan Minnesota
California Colorado Connecticut Georgia
0
10
20
30
40
0
10
20
30
40
0
10
20
30
40
0
10
20
30
40
WeeklyHospitalizationRate
CDC Covid-NET Hospitalizations
14

15. Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-06-19
NA = Inadequate data
15

16. Percent Change by Partisan Lean
-10
-5
0
5
10
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by 2016 presidential election results
Dark green line is a Friedman's supersmoother
16

17. Percent Change by Population
-10
-5
0
5
10
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Population
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by Population
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
17

18. Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Population
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
18

19. Cases as a Percent of Population
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
10%
20%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totalcases
Total Cases as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
19

20. Deaths as a Percent of Population
0.0001%
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totaldeaths
Total Deaths as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
20

21. Case Mortality vs. Population
0.1%
1%
10%
100%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Casemortality
Case Mortality vs. County Population
21

22. Alabama
34,326
986
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Alabama projection as of 2020-06-19
0
250
500
750
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 28,206 -- Deaths: 810 -- Case Mortality: 2.9% -- Daily Change: +0.3% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
22

23. Alaska
890
15
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Alaska projection as of 2020-06-19
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 708 -- Deaths: 12 -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: -3.1% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
23

24. Arizona
62,706
1,835
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Arizona projection as of 2020-06-19
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
100
200
300
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 43,443 -- Deaths: 1,271 -- Case Mortality: 2.9% -- Daily Change: +5.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
24

25. Arkansas
19,887
297
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Arkansas projection as of 2020-06-19
0
200
400
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 13,928 -- Deaths: 208 -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: -1.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
25

26. California
205,533
6,586
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
California projection as of 2020-06-19
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 167,115 -- Deaths: 5,355 -- Case Mortality: 3.2% -- Daily Change: +1.7% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
26

27. Colorado
32,266
1,768
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Colorado projection as of 2020-06-19
0
200
400
600
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 29,901 -- Deaths: 1,638 -- Case Mortality: 5.5% -- Daily Change: +2.6% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
27

28. Connecticut
47,782
4,444
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Connecticut projection as of 2020-06-19
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 45,440 -- Deaths: 4,226 -- Case Mortality: 9.3% -- Daily Change: -6.6% Cases, -0.6% Deaths
28

29. Delaware
11,133
457
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Delaware projection as of 2020-06-19
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,499 -- Deaths: 431 -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: +1.4% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
29

30. District of Columbia
10,774
573
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
District of Columbia projection as of 2020-06-19
0
50
100
150
200
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,903 -- Deaths: 527 -- Case Mortality: 5.3% -- Daily Change: -5.0% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
30

31. Florida
102,666
3,657
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Florida projection as of 2020-06-19
0
1,000
2,000
0
200
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 85,926 -- Deaths: 3,061 -- Case Mortality: 3.6% -- Daily Change: +5.9% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
31

32. Georgia
70,483
2,999
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Georgia projection as of 2020-06-19
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 61,242 -- Deaths: 2,606 -- Case Mortality: 4.3% -- Daily Change: +0.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
32

33. Hawaii
809
18
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Hawaii projection as of 2020-06-19
0
10
20
30
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 762 -- Deaths: 17 -- Case Mortality: 2.2% -- Daily Change: +1.9% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
33

34. Idaho
4,173
99
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Idaho projection as of 2020-06-19
0
50
100
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,743 -- Deaths: 89 -- Case Mortality: 2.4% -- Daily Change: +10.0% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
34

35. Illinois
145,485
7,056
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Illinois projection as of 2020-06-19
0
1,000
2,000
0
200
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 134,778 -- Deaths: 6,537 -- Case Mortality: 4.9% -- Daily Change: -1.4% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
35

36. Indiana
46,279
2,573
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Indiana projection as of 2020-06-19
0
200
400
600
800
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 41,438 -- Deaths: 2,304 -- Case Mortality: 5.6% -- Daily Change: +0.4% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
36

37. Iowa
28,776
788
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iowa projection as of 2020-06-19
0
200
400
600
0
40
80
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 24,737 -- Deaths: 677 -- Case Mortality: 2.7% -- Daily Change: -2.6% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
37

38. Kansas
12,804
270
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Kansas projection as of 2020-06-19
0
100
200
300
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,719 -- Deaths: 247 -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: +2.4% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
38

39. Kentucky
15,810
623
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Kentucky projection as of 2020-06-19
0
100
200
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 13,197 -- Deaths: 520 -- Case Mortality: 3.9% -- Daily Change: +1.5% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
39

40. Louisiana
54,047
3,278
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Louisiana projection as of 2020-06-19
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 48,634 -- Deaths: 2,950 -- Case Mortality: 6.1% -- Daily Change: -1.7% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
40

41. Maine
3,304
117
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Maine projection as of 2020-06-19
0
20
40
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,877 -- Deaths: 102 -- Case Mortality: 3.5% -- Daily Change: -2.8% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
41

42. Maryland
71,538
3,459
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Maryland projection as of 2020-06-19
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 63,229 -- Deaths: 3,057 -- Case Mortality: 4.8% -- Daily Change: -3.3% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
42

43. Massachusetts
113,027
8,252
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Massachusetts projection as of 2020-06-19
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 106,422 -- Deaths: 7,770 -- Case Mortality: 7.3% -- Daily Change: -2.8% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
43

44. Michigan
75,622
6,862
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Michigan projection as of 2020-06-19
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 66,798 -- Deaths: 6,061 -- Case Mortality: 9.1% -- Daily Change: +3.5% Cases, -0.9% Deaths
44

45. Minnesota
37,187
1,577
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Minnesota projection as of 2020-06-19
0
200
400
600
800
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 31,675 -- Deaths: 1,343 -- Case Mortality: 4.2% -- Daily Change: -1.5% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
45

46. Mississippi
24,689
1,122
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Mississippi projection as of 2020-06-19
0
100
200
300
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,641 -- Deaths: 938 -- Case Mortality: 4.5% -- Daily Change: -2.5% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
46

47. Missouri
19,390
1,085
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Missouri projection as of 2020-06-19
0
100
200
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 16,908 -- Deaths: 946 -- Case Mortality: 5.6% -- Daily Change: +1.6% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
47

48. Montana
723
24
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Montana projection as of 2020-06-19
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 667 -- Deaths: 22 -- Case Mortality: 3.3% -- Daily Change: +8.9% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
48

49. Nebraska
19,629
272
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Nebraska projection as of 2020-06-19
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
25
50
75
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 17,238 -- Deaths: 239 -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +0.6% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
49

50. Nevada
14,482
565
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Nevada projection as of 2020-06-19
0
100
200
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,169 -- Deaths: 475 -- Case Mortality: 3.9% -- Daily Change: +1.9% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
50

51. New Hampshire
6,113
371
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Hampshire projection as of 2020-06-19
0
30
60
90
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,450 -- Deaths: 331 -- Case Mortality: 6.1% -- Daily Change: -1.6% Cases, -0.6% Deaths
51

52. New Jersey
173,572
13,216
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Jersey projection as of 2020-06-19
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 168,107 -- Deaths: 12,800 -- Case Mortality: 7.6% -- Daily Change: -1.9% Cases, -0.7% Deaths
52

53. New Mexico
12,139
545
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Mexico projection as of 2020-06-19
0
50
100
150
200
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,153 -- Deaths: 456 -- Case Mortality: 4.5% -- Daily Change: -0.3% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
53

54. New York
395,741
31,518
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New York projection as of 2020-06-19
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 385,829 -- Deaths: 30,729 -- Case Mortality: 8.0% -- Daily Change: -1.9% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
54

55. North Carolina
63,448
1,547
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
North Carolina projection as of 2020-06-19
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 48,188 -- Deaths: 1,175 -- Case Mortality: 2.4% -- Daily Change: -1.1% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
55

56. North Dakota
3,651
86
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
North Dakota projection as of 2020-06-19
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,193 -- Deaths: 75 -- Case Mortality: 2.3% -- Daily Change: -2.6% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
56

57. Ohio
47,815
2,919
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Ohio projection as of 2020-06-19
0
300
600
900
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 43,123 -- Deaths: 2,633 -- Case Mortality: 6.1% -- Daily Change: +3.1% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
57

58. Oklahoma
10,568
432
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Oklahoma projection as of 2020-06-19
0
100
200
300
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,355 -- Deaths: 382 -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: +7.9% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
58

59. Oregon
7,645
225
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Oregon projection as of 2020-06-19
0
50
100
150
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,366 -- Deaths: 187 -- Case Mortality: 2.9% -- Daily Change: +3.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
59

60. Pennsylvania
85,960
6,815
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Pennsylvania projection as of 2020-06-19
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 80,236 -- Deaths: 6,361 -- Case Mortality: 7.9% -- Daily Change: -3.1% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
60

61. Rhode Island
17,193
935
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Rhode Island projection as of 2020-06-19
0
100
200
300
400
0
20
40
60
80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 16,269 -- Deaths: 885 -- Case Mortality: 5.4% -- Daily Change: -1.3% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
61

62. South Carolina
29,036
837
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Carolina projection as of 2020-06-19
0
200
400
600
800
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 21,533 -- Deaths: 621 -- Case Mortality: 2.9% -- Daily Change: +2.2% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
62

63. South Dakota
6,875
88
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Dakota projection as of 2020-06-19
0
50
100
150
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,109 -- Deaths: 78 -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: -1.7% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
63

64. Tennessee
38,988
604
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Tennessee projection as of 2020-06-19
0
200
400
600
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 32,326 -- Deaths: 501 -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +1.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
64

65. Texas
120,677
2,544
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Texas projection as of 2020-06-19
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 99,851 -- Deaths: 2,105 -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: +5.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
65

66. Utah
20,491
195
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Utah projection as of 2020-06-19
0
100
200
300
400
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 15,988 -- Deaths: 152 -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +3.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
66

67. Vermont
1,273
63
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Vermont projection as of 2020-06-19
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,135 -- Deaths: 56 -- Case Mortality: 4.9% -- Daily Change: -15.3% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
67

68. Virginia
65,941
1,860
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Virginia projection as of 2020-06-19
0
400
800
1,200
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 56,238 -- Deaths: 1,586 -- Case Mortality: 2.8% -- Daily Change: -1.6% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
68

69. Washington
30,816
1,411
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Washington projection as of 2020-06-19
0
200
400
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 27,192 -- Deaths: 1,245 -- Case Mortality: 4.6% -- Daily Change: +1.9% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
69

70. West Virginia
2,615
96
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
West Virginia projection as of 2020-06-19
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,400 -- Deaths: 88 -- Case Mortality: 3.7% -- Daily Change: +5.8% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
70

71. Wisconsin
27,909
840
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Wisconsin projection as of 2020-06-19
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
25
50
75
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 23,876 -- Deaths: 719 -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: +1.1% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
71

72. Wyoming
1,250
20
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Wyoming projection as of 2020-06-19
0
20
40
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,144 -- Deaths: 18 -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: +2.7% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
72

73. New York City
216,404
22,652
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
New York City projection as of 2020-06-19
0
2,000
4,000
0
300
600
900
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 211,260 -- Deaths: 22,114 -- Case Mortality: 10.5% -- Daily Change: -2.1% Cases, -0.6% Deaths
73

74. Westchester County, NY
35,038
1,436
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Westchester County, NY projection as of 2020-06-19
0
300
600
900
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 34,409 -- Deaths: 1,410 -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: -4.2% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
74

75. Bergen County, NJ
19,371
1,722
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bergen County, NJ projection as of 2020-06-19
0
200
400
600
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 18,949 -- Deaths: 1,684 -- Case Mortality: 8.9% -- Daily Change: -5.9% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
75

76. Hudson County, NJ
19,046
1,276
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Hudson County, NJ projection as of 2020-06-19
0
200
400
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 18,753 -- Deaths: 1,256 -- Case Mortality: 6.7% -- Daily Change: -15.5% Cases, -2.5% Deaths
76

77. King County (Seattle)
9,458
630
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
King County (Seattle) projection as of 2020-06-19
0
50
100
150
200
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,963 -- Deaths: 597 -- Case Mortality: 6.7% -- Daily Change: +6.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
77

78. Clark County, Washington
733
32
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Clark County, Washington projection as of 2020-06-19
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 638 -- Deaths: 28 -- Case Mortality: 4.4% -- Daily Change: -4.8% Cases, -0.7% Deaths
78

79. Los Angeles
95,948
3,713
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Los Angeles projection as of 2020-06-19
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 78,227 -- Deaths: 3,027 -- Case Mortality: 3.9% -- Daily Change: -0.4% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
79

80. Bay Area
13,318
394
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bay Area projection as of 2020-06-19
0
50
100
150
200
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,742 -- Deaths: 347 -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: +3.8% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
80

81. San Francisco
3,346
52
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Francisco projection as of 2020-06-19
0
20
40
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,020 -- Deaths: 47 -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: -0.7% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
81

82. Santa Clara and San Mateo
6,776
282
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Clara and San Mateo projection as of 2020-06-19
0
25
50
75
100
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,041 -- Deaths: 251 -- Case Mortality: 4.2% -- Daily Change: +1.1% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
82

83. Alameda County
5,553
140
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Alameda County projection as of 2020-06-19
0
25
50
75
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,638 -- Deaths: 117 -- Case Mortality: 2.5% -- Daily Change: +2.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
83

84. San Luis Obispo, California
429
1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Luis Obispo, California projection as of 2020-06-19
0.0
5.0
10.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 389 -- Deaths: 1 -- Case Mortality: 0.3% -- Daily Change: +11.3% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
84

85. Fresno, California
3,856
78
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Fresno, California projection as of 2020-06-19
0
25
50
75
100
125
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,058 -- Deaths: 62 -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: +7.3% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
85

86. Santa Barbara County
2,496
24
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Barbara County projection as of 2020-06-19
0
50
100
150
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,253 -- Deaths: 22 -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +9.0% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
86

87. Merced County
651
10
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Merced County projection as of 2020-06-19
0
10
20
30
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 538 -- Deaths: 8 -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +14.3% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
87

88. Yolo County
321
26
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Yolo County projection as of 2020-06-19
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 302 -- Deaths: 24 -- Case Mortality: 7.9% -- Daily Change: +11.2% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
88

89. San Diego County
11,959
392
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Diego County projection as of 2020-06-19
0
50
100
150
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,092 -- Deaths: 331 -- Case Mortality: 3.3% -- Daily Change: +2.7% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
89

90. Imperial County
7,154
92
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Imperial County projection as of 2020-06-19
0
50
100
150
200
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,659 -- Deaths: 60 -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: -5.2% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
90

91. Multnomah County (Portland)
1,992
81
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Multnomah County (Portland) projection as of 2020-06-19
0
10
20
30
40
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,665 -- Deaths: 68 -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: +0.3% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
91

92. Utah County
3,524
23
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Utah County projection as of 2020-06-19
0
20
40
60
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,861 -- Deaths: 19 -- Case Mortality: 0.7% -- Daily Change: +3.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
92

93. Summit County, Utah
482
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Summit County, Utah projection as of 2020-06-19
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 453 -- Deaths: NA -- Case Mortality: NA% -- Daily Change: -6.2% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
93

94. De Soto Parish, Louisiana
295
18
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
De Soto Parish, Louisiana projection as of 2020-06-19
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 275 -- Deaths: 17 -- Case Mortality: 6.2% -- Daily Change: -2.1% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
94

95. Dallas, Texas
18,920
375
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Dallas, Texas projection as of 2020-06-19
0
100
200
300
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 15,256 -- Deaths: 302 -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
95

96. Collin Texas
2,153
42
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Collin Texas projection as of 2020-06-19
0
20
40
60
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,967 -- Deaths: 38 -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: +13.4% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
96

97. Harris County, Texas
22,230
365
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Harris County, Texas projection as of 2020-06-19
0
100
200
300
400
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 18,157 -- Deaths: 298 -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: +3.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
97

98. McLean County, Illinois
263
14
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
McLean County, Illinois projection as of 2020-06-19
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 246 -- Deaths: 13 -- Case Mortality: 5.3% -- Daily Change: -7.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
98

99. Cook County, Illinois
92,268
4,639
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cook County, Illinois projection as of 2020-06-19
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 86,179 -- Deaths: 4,333 -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: -0.5% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
99

100. Suffolk County (Boston)
20,487
1,013
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Suffolk County (Boston) projection as of 2020-06-19
0
200
400
600
0
25
50
75
100
125
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,477 -- Deaths: 963 -- Case Mortality: 4.9% -- Daily Change: -1.3% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
100

101. Polk County, Iowa
6,191
192
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Polk County, Iowa projection as of 2020-06-19
0
50
100
150
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,297 -- Deaths: 164 -- Case Mortality: 3.1% -- Daily Change: -1.5% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
101

102. Johnson County, Iowa
683
8
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Johnson County, Iowa projection as of 2020-06-19
0
10
20
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 685 -- Deaths: 8 -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: +22.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
102

103. Erie County, New York
7,553
611
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Erie County, New York projection as of 2020-06-19
0
50
100
150
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,920 -- Deaths: 560 -- Case Mortality: 8.1% -- Daily Change: -2.5% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
103

104. Oakland County, Michigan
12,313
1,154
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Oakland County, Michigan projection as of 2020-06-19
0
200
400
600
0
30
60
90
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,425 -- Deaths: 1,071 -- Case Mortality: 9.4% -- Daily Change: -1.0% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
104

105. St. Louis (City)
2,266
161
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (City) projection as of 2020-06-19
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,086 -- Deaths: 148 -- Case Mortality: 7.1% -- Daily Change: +0.4% Cases, +0.7% Deaths
105

106. St. Louis (County)
5,979
592
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (County) projection as of 2020-06-19
0
25
50
75
100
125
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,603 -- Deaths: 555 -- Case Mortality: 9.9% -- Daily Change: +4.3% Cases, +0.8% Deaths
106

107. Baltimore (City)
7,949
356
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Baltimore (City) projection as of 2020-06-19
0
50
100
150
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,906 -- Deaths: 309 -- Case Mortality: 4.5% -- Daily Change: -2.1% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
107

108. Durham County
3,913
77
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Durham County projection as of 2020-06-19
0
25
50
75
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,912 -- Deaths: 57 -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -1.4% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
108

109. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)
6,036
365
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) projection as of 2020-06-19
0
25
50
75
100
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,404 -- Deaths: 327 -- Case Mortality: 6.1% -- Daily Change: +2.7% Cases, -0.6% Deaths
109

110. Wayne County (Detroit)
23,188
2,832
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Wayne County (Detroit) projection as of 2020-06-19
0
200
400
600
800
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 21,941 -- Deaths: 2,680 -- Case Mortality: 12.2% -- Daily Change: -0.9% Cases, -2.5% Deaths
110

111. Miami-Dade
26,819
966
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Miami-Dade projection as of 2020-06-19
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
25
50
75
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 23,854 -- Deaths: 859 -- Case Mortality: 3.6% -- Daily Change: +4.8% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
111

112. Maricopa County
34,862
873
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Maricopa County projection as of 2020-06-19
0
500
1,000
0
100
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 23,880 -- Deaths: 598 -- Case Mortality: 2.5% -- Daily Change: +7.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
112

113. Denver County
6,988
394
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Denver County projection as of 2020-06-19
0
50
100
150
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,493 -- Deaths: 366 -- Case Mortality: 5.6% -- Daily Change: +3.7% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
113

114. Arapahoe County
5,245
365
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Arapahoe County projection as of 2020-06-19
0
30
60
90
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,885 -- Deaths: 340 -- Case Mortality: 7.0% -- Daily Change: +0.1% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
114

115. Montrose County
218
13
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Montrose County projection as of 2020-06-19
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 198 -- Deaths: 12 -- Case Mortality: 6.1% -- Daily Change: -0.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
115

116. Case Mortality vs. Testing
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HIID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
0 5 10 15 20
% Tested
%Mortality
Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-06-19
116

117. Italy
241,045
34,932
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Italy projection as of 2020-06-19
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 238,159 -- Deaths: 34,514 -- Case Mortality: 14.5% -- Daily Change: +1.0% Cases, -1.0% Deaths
117

118. Spain
248,263
29,103
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Spain projection as of 2020-06-19
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 245,268 -- Deaths: 28,752 -- Case Mortality: 11.7% -- Daily Change: +0.4% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
118

119. Portugal
41,589
1,664
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Portugal projection as of 2020-06-19
0
250
500
750
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 38,089 -- Deaths: 1,524 -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: +1.7% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
119

120. France
198,872
30,152
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
France projection as of 2020-06-19
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 195,272 -- Deaths: 29,606 -- Case Mortality: 15.2% -- Daily Change: +4.8% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
120

121. Germany
192,239
8,988
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Germany projection as of 2020-06-19
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
400
800
1,200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 189,817 -- Deaths: 8,875 -- Case Mortality: 4.7% -- Daily Change: +12.3% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
121

122. Switzerland
31,370
1,967
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Switzerland projection as of 2020-06-19
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 31,200 -- Deaths: 1,956 -- Case Mortality: 6.3% -- Daily Change: -1.1% Cases, +0.7% Deaths
122

123. Austria
17,528
700
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Austria projection as of 2020-06-19
0
250
500
750
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 17,223 -- Deaths: 688 -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: -0.2% Cases, +0.4% Deaths
123

124. Sweden
69,195
6,239
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Sweden projection as of 2020-06-19
0
500
1,000
0
100
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 56,043 -- Deaths: 5,053 -- Case Mortality: 9.0% -- Daily Change: +1.3% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
124

125. Netherlands
51,402
6,328
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Netherlands projection as of 2020-06-19
0
500
1,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 49,527 -- Deaths: 6,097 -- Case Mortality: 12.3% -- Daily Change: -4.0% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
125

126. United Kingdom
318,977
44,765
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
United Kingdom projection as of 2020-06-19
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
400
800
1,200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 301,935 -- Deaths: 42,373 -- Case Mortality: 14.0% -- Daily Change: -1.3% Cases, -0.7% Deaths
126

127. Iceland
1,816
10
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iceland projection as of 2020-06-19
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,816 -- Deaths: 10 -- Case Mortality: 0.6% -- Daily Change: +17.2% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
127

128. Israel
21,441
324
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Israel projection as of 2020-06-19
0
200
400
600
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,036 -- Deaths: 303 -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +3.0% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
128

129. Canada
108,636
8,916
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Canada projection as of 2020-06-19
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
100
200
300
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 101,877 -- Deaths: 8,361 -- Case Mortality: 8.2% -- Daily Change: -2.4% Cases, -0.7% Deaths
129

130. Australia
7,479
104
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Australia projection as of 2020-06-19
0
100
200
300
400
0
20
40
60
80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,409 -- Deaths: 103 -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +8.0% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
130

131. New Zealand
1,507
22
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Zealand projection as of 2020-06-19
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,507 -- Deaths: 22 -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +18.8% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
131

132. China
84,559
4,642
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
China projection as of 2020-06-19
0
2,000
4,000
0
300
600
900
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 84,494 -- Deaths: 4,638 -- Case Mortality: 5.5% -- Daily Change: +8.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
132

133. South Korea
12,764
290
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Korea projection as of 2020-06-19
0
200
400
600
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,306 -- Deaths: 280 -- Case Mortality: 2.3% -- Daily Change: -0.0% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
133

134. Singapore
46,549
29
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Singapore projection as of 2020-06-19
0
300
600
900
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 41,473 -- Deaths: 26 -- Case Mortality: 0.1% -- Daily Change: -5.1% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
134

135. Japan
18,009
957
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan projection as of 2020-06-19
0
200
400
600
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 17,588 -- Deaths: 935 -- Case Mortality: 5.3% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
135

136. South Africa
135,022
2,796
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Africa projection as of 2020-06-19
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 83,890 -- Deaths: 1,737 -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: +3.0% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
136

137. Iran
230,625
10,819
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iran projection as of 2020-06-19
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 197,647 -- Deaths: 9,272 -- Case Mortality: 4.7% -- Daily Change: +2.2% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
137

138. Brazil
1,342,825
65,550
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Brazil projection as of 2020-06-19
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 978,142 -- Deaths: 47,748 -- Case Mortality: 4.9% -- Daily Change: +0.4% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
138

139. Russia
677,983
9,256
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Russia projection as of 2020-06-19
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 560,321 -- Deaths: 7,650 -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -0.7% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
139

140. India
514,889
17,012
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
India projection as of 2020-06-19
0
5,000
10,000
0
1,000
2,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 380,532 -- Deaths: 12,573 -- Case Mortality: 3.3% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
140

141. Pakistan
238,724
4,670
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Pakistan projection as of 2020-06-19
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
500
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 165,062 -- Deaths: 3,229 -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: +1.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
141

142. Mexico
219,283
26,171
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Mexico projection as of 2020-06-19
0
2,000
4,000
0
300
600
900
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 165,455 -- Deaths: 19,747 -- Case Mortality: 11.9% -- Daily Change: +1.3% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
142

143. Case Mortality vs. Testing
BHR
LUX
ISL
DNK
LTU
RUS
QAT
PRT
ISR
BLRKWT
ITA
IRL
USA
EST
AUS
BEL
LVA
MDV
NZL
KAZ
ESP
AUT
CAN
GBR
DEU
SGP
CHE
NOR
CZE
SRB
CHL
SVN
FIN
SWE
SVK
SAU
TUR
ROU
NLD
GRC
POL
HUN
KORPANZAF
MYS
SLV
HRV
BGR
IRN
URY
CUB
UKR
COL
RWA
PRY
THA
GHA
PER
TUN
ARG
ECU
CRI
IND
NPL
PAK
PHL
BOL
SENBGDTWN
JPN
MEX
UGAVNM
MAR
BRA
KEN
ETH
ZWE
IDN
MMR
NGA
0
5
10
15
0 10 20
% Tested
%CaseMortality
Case Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-06-19
143