Climate Refugees: Uncertainty and Insecurity
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This lecture presents the precarious state of climate refugees, whose status is not defined under current international law. It examines several case studies (Syria, Tuvalu, and Kivalina) in which populations are on the move or are under imminent danger as a result, directly or indirectly, of climate change. The presentation also evaluates several possible solutions devised by legal scholars and political scientists to address to what many regard as an impending crisis.
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Climate Refugees: Uncertainty and Insecurity
- 1. Climate Refugees: Uncertainty and Insecurity Josh Gellers, PhD University of North Florida International Studies Senior Seminar Lecture Series September 25, 2015 Photo: Munem Wasif
- 2. Agenda Define climate refugees Examine current scientific knowledge Explore status under international law Evaluate potential solutions Discuss future prospects 2
- 3. What is a climate refugee? Photo: www.ccema-portal.org 3
- 4. Population Mobility 4 Totally Voluntary Migration (Gradual Environmental Change) Totally Forced Migration (Natural Disasters) Photo: Sönke Kreft, UNU-EHS
- 5. Environmental Refugees Climate Refugees “People who have to leave their habitats, immediately or in the near future, because of sudden or gradual alterations in their natural environment related to at least one of three impacts of climate change: sea- level rise, extreme weather events, and drought and water scarcity.” (Biermann & Boas, 2010) “[P]eople who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently, because of a marked disruption (natural and/or triggered by people) that jeopardized their existence and/or seriously affected the quality of their life.” (UNEP, 1985) 5
- 6. Climate Change Sea-Level Rise Extreme Weather Drought/Water Scarcity Temporary or Permanent Migration 6 Causal Connection
- 7. Examples(?) 7 Syria Photo: Julien Goldstein, NYT Tuvalu Photo: Kyodo, AP Kivalina Photo: Wikicommons
- 8. What does current science tell us? Impacts • Almost no reliable evidence on out-migration. (Bilsborrow, 2009) • Slow-onset disasters impact more people than sudden events. (IOM, 2010) • 2008: 20 million+ displaced due to climate- related disasters. (IDMC, 2009) Projections • 200-250 million climate refugees by 2050. (Biermann & Boas, 2010) • Most climate refugees will come from Africa and Asia. (GACGC, 2006) • “Climate change…is expected to increase displacement of people (medium evidence, high agreement).” (IPCC, 2014) 8
- 9. Q: Are climate refugees protected under international law? A: No. Neither of the two main international laws on refugees cover climate refugees. 9
- 10. Teitiota v. Climate Change 10 Photo: Birgit Krippner, FP
- 11. Is there a solution? Expand Refugee Convention Add climate refugee protocol to UNFCCC Create new international treaty Establish ad hoc regional regimes 11
- 12. What does the future hold? • Issue will be brought up later this year at COP21 in Paris • UN Advisory Group on Climate Change and Human Mobility has pledged to provide technical assistance to countries • Current refugee crisis in Europe a ‘rehearsal’ for the climate refugee crisis? 12
- 13. Additional Information • Visit UN High Commissioner for Refugees • Watch Do Climate Change ‘Refugees’ Exist? • Watch Climate Refugees (2010) 13
Editor's Notes
- There is no universally agreed upon definition.
- 1951 Geneva Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees and 1967 Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees deal exclusively with people fleeing their countries due to state-led persecution. Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement of the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights leaves main responsibility with state, not international community.
- Claimed “passive persecution”