In this presentation, I examine President Trump's record during his first two years in office using data on the economy, national security, and foreign policy.

1. Two Years Under President Trump:
A Status Update on the United States
Dr. Josh Gellers
1.31.2019
Photo: Politico.com

2. Rules of Engagement
• No personal opinions (until the end)
• Good data only, as current as possible
• Only way to beat data is with more data
• No resignations/firings/investigations/scandals
• No impacts that can’t be quantified (yet)
• No tweets!
– Ok, SOME tweets
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3. Anecdote 3

4. Areas Covered
Economy
National Security
Foreign Policy
4

5. Objective
Cause Effect
Presidential Powers/Actions Tangible Outcomes
5

6. Presidential Powers: Economy
Direct Indirect
Sole n/a - Nominate people to
Federal Reserve board
- Send signals to market
Shared - Levy taxes and
spend money
n/a
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7. Economy
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8. Presidential Actions
• Nominated 5 people to the Federal Reserve board:
Jerome Powell (chair), Richard Clarida (vice chair),
Michelle Bowman (confirmed), Nellie Liang (withdrew),
and Marvin Goodfriend (needs to be renominated)
• Signed Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (12/22/2017)
– Drops corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%
– Repeals the corporate alternative minimum tax
– Nearly doubles the standard deduction for individuals
– Keeps seven personal income tax brackets and lowers that
tax rates for most brackets, including dropping the top rate
to 37% from 39.6%
• Lots of tweets!
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9. GDP Growth
Obama Sworn In
Trump Sworn In
9

10. Unemployment Rate
Obama Sworn In
Trump Sworn In
10

11. Jobs: Non-Farm Payrolls
11

12. Jobs: Manufacturing Payrolls
12

13. Government Debt
Obama Sworn In
Trump Sworn In
13

14. Trade Deficit
Obama Sworn In
Trump Sworn In
14

15. Corporate Profits
Trump Sworn In
Tax Plan Goes
Into Effect
15

16. Disposable Personal Income
Trump Sworn In
Tax Plan Goes
Into Effect
16

17. Average Hourly Earnings
Obama Sworn In Trump Sworn In
17

18. Inflation Rate
Powell Begins as
Fed Chair
Trump Sworn In
18

19. Stock Market
Obama Sworn In
Trump Sworn In
19

20. 20

21. Economy: Verdict
• Many trends continuing since Obama
• Debt and deficit continue to rise under Trump
• Corporate profits are up, but they haven’t
translated into major gains for shareholders or
employees
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22. National Security
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23. Presidential Powers: National Security
Direct Indirect
Sole - Initiate military actions
- Issue pardons
- Issue executive orders
- Direct Federal agencies
- Commission
officers of the
armed forces
- Nominate heads of
government
departments and
Federal judges
Shared - Declare war n/a
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24. Presidential Actions: National Security
• Issued a memo calling for a new plan to defeat
ISIS (1/28/2017)
• Issued Executive Order on immigration
(3/6/2017)
• Signed $717 billion Fiscal 2019 National Defense
Authorization Act (8/13/2018)
• Issued Executive Order on asylum seekers
(11/9/2018)
• Directed Justice Department to propose final rule
banning bump stocks (12/18/2018)
• Signed FIRST STEP Act into law (12/21/2018)
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25. ISIS
End of Obama Admin Early Trump Admin
25

26. Unauthorized Immigration
Obama Sworn In
26

27. Illegal Border Crossings
27

28. Immigrant Deportations
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29. Violent Crime
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Violent
crime
rate
Obama Sworn In Trump Sworn In
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30. Domestic Terrorism
Number of
incidents
Trump In Office
Obama In Office
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31. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
# Deaths
Mass Shootings
Obama In Office
Trump In Office
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32. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
# Mass Shootings
Mass Shootings
Obama In Office
Trump In Office
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33. 37
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Obama (09-16) Trump (17-19)
Mass Shootings
4.6/yr
12.5/yr
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34. National Security: Verdict
• ISIS has lost control of territory, but not
vanquished
• Illegal immigration already on a slight
downward trend
• Domestic terrorism has increased
• Number of mass shootings and number of
mass shooting deaths are up
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35. Foreign Policy
35

36. Presidential Powers: Foreign Policy
Direct Indirect
Sole - Receive foreign
diplomats
- Impose economic
sanctions
- Negotiate trade deals
- Withdraw from
agreements
- Nominate
ambassadors
Shared - Make treaties n/a
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37. Presidential Actions: Foreign Policy
• Signed Executive Order withdrawing from Trans-Pacific
Partnership (1/23/2017)
• Authorized an air strike on Syria (4/7/2017)
• Announced intent to withdraw from Paris Climate Accord
(6/1/2017)
• Reinstated restrictions on travel and trade with Cuba
(6/16/2017)
• Recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital (12/6/2017)
• Ended US participation in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (5/8/2018)
• Withdrew US participation in the UN Human Rights Council
(6/19/2018)
• Signed US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (11/30/2018)
• Announced U.S. withdrawal from Syria (12/19/2018)
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38. US Stature in the World
38

39. US Stature in the World
39

40. Tweeting Foreign Policy
"The challenge is just getting caught up
because I don't even have a Twitter
account that I can follow when he's
tweeting. So my staff usually has to print
his tweets out and hand them to me,"
[Former Secretary of State Rex] Tillerson
said.
"It might be five minutes, or it might be
an hour before somebody hands me a
piece of paper and says, 'Hey, the
president's tweeted this out,'" he said. "It
allows me to now think about … is it a
foreign policy issue? What is it he's
tweeting about, and how do we take that
and now use it?"
Photo: AFP/Getty Images
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41. Tweeting Foreign Policy
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42. Foreign Policy: Verdict
• The US has successfully withdrawn from
several large international endeavors
• Focus has shifted from international
leadership to “America First”
• The President has sought to project strength,
but also create uncertainty
• Global stature of the US has diminished
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43. Thank you! Questions?
Contact:
josh.gellers@gmail.com
www.joshgellers.com
@JoshGellers
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