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Two Years Under President Trump:
A Status Update on the United States
Dr. Josh Gellers
1.31.2019
Photo: Politico.com
Rules of Engagement
• No personal opinions (until the end)
• Good data only, as current as possible
• Only way to beat data is with more data
• No resignations/firings/investigations/scandals
• No impacts that can’t be quantified (yet)
• No tweets!
– Ok, SOME tweets
2
Anecdote 3
Areas Covered
Economy
National Security
Foreign Policy
4
Objective
Cause Effect
Presidential Powers/Actions Tangible Outcomes
5
Presidential Powers: Economy
Direct Indirect
Sole n/a - Nominate people to
Federal Reserve board
- Send signals to market
Shared - Levy taxes and
spend money
n/a
6
Economy
7
Presidential Actions
• Nominated 5 people to the Federal Reserve board:
Jerome Powell (chair), Richard Clarida (vice chair),
Michelle Bowman (confirmed), Nellie Liang (withdrew),
and Marvin Goodfriend (needs to be renominated)
• Signed Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (12/22/2017)
– Drops corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%
– Repeals the corporate alternative minimum tax
– Nearly doubles the standard deduction for individuals
– Keeps seven personal income tax brackets and lowers that
tax rates for most brackets, including dropping the top rate
to 37% from 39.6%
• Lots of tweets!
8
GDP Growth
Obama Sworn In
Trump Sworn In
9
Unemployment Rate
Obama Sworn In
Trump Sworn In
10
Jobs: Non-Farm Payrolls
11
Jobs: Manufacturing Payrolls
12
Government Debt
Obama Sworn In
Trump Sworn In
13
Trade Deficit
Obama Sworn In
Trump Sworn In
14
Corporate Profits
Trump Sworn In
Tax Plan Goes
Into Effect
15
Disposable Personal Income
Trump Sworn In
Tax Plan Goes
Into Effect
16
Average Hourly Earnings
Obama Sworn In Trump Sworn In
17
Inflation Rate
Powell Begins as
Fed Chair
Trump Sworn In
18
Stock Market
Obama Sworn In
Trump Sworn In
19
20
Economy: Verdict
• Many trends continuing since Obama
• Debt and deficit continue to rise under Trump
• Corporate profits are up, but they haven’t
translated into major gains for shareholders or
employees
21
National Security
22
Presidential Powers: National Security
Direct Indirect
Sole - Initiate military actions
- Issue pardons
- Issue executive orders
- Direct Federal agencies
- Commission
officers of the
armed forces
- Nominate heads of
government
departments and
Federal judges
Shared - Declare war n/a
23
Presidential Actions: National Security
• Issued a memo calling for a new plan to defeat
ISIS (1/28/2017)
• Issued Executive Order on immigration
(3/6/2017)
• Signed $717 billion Fiscal 2019 National Defense
Authorization Act (8/13/2018)
• Issued Executive Order on asylum seekers
(11/9/2018)
• Directed Justice Department to propose final rule
banning bump stocks (12/18/2018)
• Signed FIRST STEP Act into law (12/21/2018)
24
ISIS
End of Obama Admin Early Trump Admin
25
Unauthorized Immigration
Obama Sworn In
26
Illegal Border Crossings
27
Immigrant Deportations
28
Violent Crime
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Violent
crime
rate
Obama Sworn In Trump Sworn In
29
Domestic Terrorism
Number of
incidents
Trump In Office
Obama In Office
30
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
# Deaths
Mass Shootings
Obama In Office
Trump In Office
31
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
# Mass Shootings
Mass Shootings
Obama In Office
Trump In Office
32
37
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Obama (09-16) Trump (17-19)
Mass Shootings
4.6/yr
12.5/yr
33
National Security: Verdict
• ISIS has lost control of territory, but not
vanquished
• Illegal immigration already on a slight
downward trend
• Domestic terrorism has increased
• Number of mass shootings and number of
mass shooting deaths are up
34
Foreign Policy
35
Presidential Powers: Foreign Policy
Direct Indirect
Sole - Receive foreign
diplomats
- Impose economic
sanctions
- Negotiate trade deals
- Withdraw from
agreements
- Nominate
ambassadors
Shared - Make treaties n/a
36
Presidential Actions: Foreign Policy
• Signed Executive Order withdrawing from Trans-Pacific
Partnership (1/23/2017)
• Authorized an air strike on Syria (4/7/2017)
• Announced intent to withdraw from Paris Climate Accord
(6/1/2017)
• Reinstated restrictions on travel and trade with Cuba
(6/16/2017)
• Recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital (12/6/2017)
• Ended US participation in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (5/8/2018)
• Withdrew US participation in the UN Human Rights Council
(6/19/2018)
• Signed US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (11/30/2018)
• Announced U.S. withdrawal from Syria (12/19/2018)
37
US Stature in the World
38
US Stature in the World
39
Tweeting Foreign Policy
"The challenge is just getting caught up
because I don't even have a Twitter
account that I can follow when he's
tweeting. So my staff usually has to print
his tweets out and hand them to me,"
[Former Secretary of State Rex] Tillerson
said.
"It might be five minutes, or it might be
an hour before somebody hands me a
piece of paper and says, 'Hey, the
president's tweeted this out,'" he said. "It
allows me to now think about … is it a
foreign policy issue? What is it he's
tweeting about, and how do we take that
and now use it?"
Photo: AFP/Getty Images
40
Tweeting Foreign Policy
41
Foreign Policy: Verdict
• The US has successfully withdrawn from
several large international endeavors
• Focus has shifted from international
leadership to “America First”
• The President has sought to project strength,
but also create uncertainty
• Global stature of the US has diminished
42
Thank you! Questions?
Contact:
josh.gellers@gmail.com
www.joshgellers.com
@JoshGellers
43

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Two Years under President Trump: A Status Update on the United States

Editor's Notes

  1. Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth
  2. Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
  3. In thousands. Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls
  4. In thousands. Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-payrolls
  5. In millions of USD. Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt
  6. In millions of USD. Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/balance-of-trade
  7. In billions of USD. Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/corporate-profits
  8. In billions of USD (after taxes). Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/disposable-personal-income
  9. In percentage change. Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/average-hourly-earnings
  10. Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
  11. Source: https://www.yardeni.com/pub/buybackdiv.pdf
  12. Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/dow-tumbles-nearly-800-points-as-trade-jitters-return-1543959007?mod=hp_lead_pos1&tesla=y
  13. Source: http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/search/label/ISIS
  14. Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/646261/unauthorized-immigrant-population-in-the-us/
  15. Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/11/us/politics/trump-border-crisis-reality.html
  16. Source: https://www.ice.gov/removal-statistics/2017
  17. Per 100,000 inhabitants. The violent crime figures include the offenses of murder, rape (legacy definition), robbery, and aggravated assault. Source: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2017/crime-in-the-u.s.-2017/tables/table-1
  18. Source: https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/
  19. Mass shootings defined as events in which a lone perpetrator took at least 3 lives in a public place (not counting gang violence, armed robberies, or domestic incidents). Sources: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/12/mass-shootings-mother-jones-full-data/; https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports/mass-shooting
  20. Mass shootings defined as events in which a lone perpetrator took at least 3 lives in a public place (not counting gang violence, armed robberies, or domestic incidents). Sources: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/12/mass-shootings-mother-jones-full-data/; https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports/mass-shooting
  21. Mass shootings defined as events in which a lone perpetrator took at least 3 lives in a public place (not counting gang violence, armed robberies, or domestic incidents). Sources: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/12/mass-shootings-mother-jones-full-data/; https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports/mass-shooting
  22. Source: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/10/09/how-the-world-views-the-u-s-and-its-president-in-9-charts/
  23. Source: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/10/09/how-the-world-views-the-u-s-and-its-president-in-9-charts/
  24. Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/tillerson-prints-out-trump-tweets-2018-1