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Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
Nevada State Climate Office
Douglas P. Boyle
douglasb@unr.edu
Department of Geography
University of Nevada, Reno
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
2015 WY Precipitation
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
Precipitation % of Normal
Eastern
Nevada
Northern Great Basin
Lower
Humboldt
Southern Nevada
Walker
Carson
Owyhee River Snake
River
Clover
Valley
Upper
Humboldt
Truckee
Lake
Tahoe
51
78
69
68
83
48
48
83
52
77
53
Water Year (Oct 1)
to Date Precipitation
Basin-wide Percent
of 1981-2010 Average
unavailable *
<50%
50 - 69%
70 - 89%
90 - 109%
110 - 129%
130 - 149%
>= 150%
Prepared by:
USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center
Portland, Oregon
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov
Provisional data
subject to revision
Nevada/California SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal
0 75 15037.5
Miles
* Data unavailable
at time of posting
or measurement
is not representative
at this time of year
The water year to date precipitation percent of normal represents the
accumulated precipitation found at selected SNOTEL sites in or near the basin
compared to the average value for those sites on this day. Data based on
the first reading of the day (typically 00:00).
Apr 16, 2015
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
SWE % of Normal
Eastern
Nevada
Northern Great Basin
Lower
Humboldt
Southern Nevada
Walker
Carson
Owyhee River Snake
River
Clover
Valley
Upper
Humboldt
Truckee
Lake
Tahoe
16
27
26
6
1
17
24
37
15
58
0
Current Snow
Water Equivalent
Basin-wide Percent
of 1981-2010 Median
unavailable *
<50%
50 - 69%
70 - 89%
90 - 109%
110 - 129%
130 - 149%
>= 150%
Prepared by:
USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center
Portland, Oregon
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov
Provisional data
subject to revision
Nevada/California SNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) % of Normal
0 70 14035
Miles
* Data unavailable
at time of posting
or measurement
is not representative
at this time of year
The current snow water equivalent percent of normal represents the
snow water equivalent found at selected SNOTEL sites in or near the basin
compared to the average value for those sites on this day. Data based on
the first reading of the day (typically 00:00).
Apr 16, 2015
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
2015 WY Temperature
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
2014 Warm Temperatures
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
2014 Warm Temperatures
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
2014 Warm Temperatures
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
2014 Warm Temperatures
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
Reservoir Status
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
NRCS Volumetric Forecasts
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
U.S. Drought Monitor
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
U.S.D.M – Policy Impacts
2015 S ecretarial D ro u g h t D es ign atio n s -A ll D ro u g h t
Alaska 1:58,102,399
Hawaii 1:19,740,053
S ecretarial D rou gh t D es ign ation s for 2015
Disaster Incidents as of April 15, 2015
State Boundary
County Boundary
Tribal Lands
USDA Farm Service Agency
Primary Counties: 302
Production, Emergencies and Compliance Division
Washington, D.C. Contiguous Counties: 150
1:23,520,203 Puerto Rico 1:5,592,808April 15, 2015
Accuracy of Drought Monitor is important!
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
Assessing Drought Status
Questions from public about the DM
• Why is ____ D4?
• Why isn’t ____ D4?
• What does D4 mean?
• Is the drought over?
• How much precipitation do we need to end the drought?
• When will that happen?
• Is the drought due to global warming?
• Are we in the beginning (or middle) of a “mega-drought?
CA-NV DM & Water Conditions Discussion
• Discuss latest local water conditions, impacts, actions, and the DM
• Provide a coordinated response to DM authors and others
• Single most valuable resource for NSCO.
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
Death Valley
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
Recommendations to DM Authors
Move to D4 Move to D3 Move to D1
“As of the end of
December, Denio was
above 150% of normal
precipitation while
eastward at
McDermitt it was
closer to 50%”
We need help!
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
Availability of Information
Large number of weather &
climate products available
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
L.T. Drought Indicator Blend
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
S.T. Drought Indicator Blend
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
Availability of Information
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
Availability of Information
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
Availability of Analysis Tools
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
Availability of Observations
How accurate are these products
and tools?
The topography, geology, and
weather patterns in the West
require a large number of real
climate observations to characterize
the spatial and temporal variability.
We have the least number of
climate observations in these areas.
Desperately need more real
observations of climate variables to
understand and assess uncertainty
and product limitations.
We need your help!
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
3-month Temperature Forecast
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
3-month Precipitation Forecast
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle
Seasonal Drought Outlook
http://go.usa.gov/hHTe
U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook
Author:
Rich Tinker
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center
Drought Tendency During the Valid Period
Valid for April 16 - July 31, 2015
Released April 16, 2015
Depicts large-scale trends based
on subjectively derived probabilities
guided by short- and long-range
statistical and dynamical forecasts.
Use caution for applications that
can be affected by short lived events.
"Ongoing" drought areas are
based on the U.S. Drought Monitor
areas (intensities of D1 to D4).
NOTE: The tan areas imply at least
a 1-category improvement in the
Drought Monitor intensity levels by
the end of the period, although
drought will remain. The green
areas imply drought removal by the
end of the period (D0 or none).
Drought persists/intensifies
Drought remains but improves
Drought removal likely
Drought development likely

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Nevada State Climate Office - Doug Bolye, Nevada State Climatologist, University of Nevada, Reno

  • 1. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle Nevada State Climate Office Douglas P. Boyle douglasb@unr.edu Department of Geography University of Nevada, Reno
  • 2. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle 2015 WY Precipitation
  • 3. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle Precipitation % of Normal Eastern Nevada Northern Great Basin Lower Humboldt Southern Nevada Walker Carson Owyhee River Snake River Clover Valley Upper Humboldt Truckee Lake Tahoe 51 78 69 68 83 48 48 83 52 77 53 Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation Basin-wide Percent of 1981-2010 Average unavailable * <50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% >= 150% Prepared by: USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center Portland, Oregon http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov Provisional data subject to revision Nevada/California SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal 0 75 15037.5 Miles * Data unavailable at time of posting or measurement is not representative at this time of year The water year to date precipitation percent of normal represents the accumulated precipitation found at selected SNOTEL sites in or near the basin compared to the average value for those sites on this day. Data based on the first reading of the day (typically 00:00). Apr 16, 2015
  • 4. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle SWE % of Normal Eastern Nevada Northern Great Basin Lower Humboldt Southern Nevada Walker Carson Owyhee River Snake River Clover Valley Upper Humboldt Truckee Lake Tahoe 16 27 26 6 1 17 24 37 15 58 0 Current Snow Water Equivalent Basin-wide Percent of 1981-2010 Median unavailable * <50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% >= 150% Prepared by: USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center Portland, Oregon http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov Provisional data subject to revision Nevada/California SNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) % of Normal 0 70 14035 Miles * Data unavailable at time of posting or measurement is not representative at this time of year The current snow water equivalent percent of normal represents the snow water equivalent found at selected SNOTEL sites in or near the basin compared to the average value for those sites on this day. Data based on the first reading of the day (typically 00:00). Apr 16, 2015
  • 5. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle 2015 WY Temperature
  • 6. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle 2014 Warm Temperatures
  • 7. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle 2014 Warm Temperatures
  • 8. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle 2014 Warm Temperatures
  • 9. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle 2014 Warm Temperatures
  • 10. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle Reservoir Status
  • 11. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle NRCS Volumetric Forecasts
  • 12. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle U.S. Drought Monitor
  • 13. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle U.S.D.M – Policy Impacts 2015 S ecretarial D ro u g h t D es ign atio n s -A ll D ro u g h t Alaska 1:58,102,399 Hawaii 1:19,740,053 S ecretarial D rou gh t D es ign ation s for 2015 Disaster Incidents as of April 15, 2015 State Boundary County Boundary Tribal Lands USDA Farm Service Agency Primary Counties: 302 Production, Emergencies and Compliance Division Washington, D.C. Contiguous Counties: 150 1:23,520,203 Puerto Rico 1:5,592,808April 15, 2015 Accuracy of Drought Monitor is important!
  • 14. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle Assessing Drought Status Questions from public about the DM • Why is ____ D4? • Why isn’t ____ D4? • What does D4 mean? • Is the drought over? • How much precipitation do we need to end the drought? • When will that happen? • Is the drought due to global warming? • Are we in the beginning (or middle) of a “mega-drought? CA-NV DM & Water Conditions Discussion • Discuss latest local water conditions, impacts, actions, and the DM • Provide a coordinated response to DM authors and others • Single most valuable resource for NSCO.
  • 15. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle Death Valley
  • 16. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle Recommendations to DM Authors Move to D4 Move to D3 Move to D1 “As of the end of December, Denio was above 150% of normal precipitation while eastward at McDermitt it was closer to 50%” We need help!
  • 17. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle Availability of Information Large number of weather & climate products available
  • 18. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle L.T. Drought Indicator Blend
  • 19. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle S.T. Drought Indicator Blend
  • 20. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle Availability of Information
  • 21. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle Availability of Information
  • 22. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle Availability of Analysis Tools
  • 23. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle Availability of Observations How accurate are these products and tools? The topography, geology, and weather patterns in the West require a large number of real climate observations to characterize the spatial and temporal variability. We have the least number of climate observations in these areas. Desperately need more real observations of climate variables to understand and assess uncertainty and product limitations. We need your help!
  • 24. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle 3-month Temperature Forecast
  • 25. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle 3-month Precipitation Forecast
  • 26. Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno Douglas P. Boyle Seasonal Drought Outlook http://go.usa.gov/hHTe U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook Author: Rich Tinker NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center Drought Tendency During the Valid Period Valid for April 16 - July 31, 2015 Released April 16, 2015 Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by short- and long-range statistical and dynamical forecasts. Use caution for applications that can be affected by short lived events. "Ongoing" drought areas are based on the U.S. Drought Monitor areas (intensities of D1 to D4). NOTE: The tan areas imply at least a 1-category improvement in the Drought Monitor intensity levels by the end of the period, although drought will remain. The green areas imply drought removal by the end of the period (D0 or none). Drought persists/intensifies Drought remains but improves Drought removal likely Drought development likely