Climate change
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This document provides an overview of climate change and links to various resources on the topic, including: - Summaries of the 5th Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the impacts, adaptation, vulnerabilities and mitigation of climate change. - Links to the IPCC website and presentations on their reports which assess the scientific basis of climate change. - Resources on the composition of the atmosphere, greenhouse gas emissions, and historical global temperature changes that can be explained by human and natural factors. - Examples of observed impacts from climate change in New York City like increased flooding and effects on infrastructure from Hurricane Sandy. - Principles of precaution in relation to climate policy and the
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Climate change
- 2. IPCC 5th Assessment Report http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/
- 4. https://www2.slideshare.net/IPCCGeneva/fifth-assessment-report-working-group-ii-presentation IMPACTS, ADAPTATION & VULNERABILITIES
- 7. Composition of the Atmosphere http://www.agci.org/classroom/atmosphere/
- 14. Summary Graph This figure shows a summary of estimated peak rates of climate change and sizes of changes associated with various classes of cause. Ice ages and tectonic movement would be considered slow, and volcanic eruptions and changes in solar heating would be relatively fast. Please note that the axes are logarithmic. Also, the plotted line is drawn to assist in seeing the relationship between speed, size, and duration of climate change. In this figure, human-caused climate change falls within natural variability. Projections of human influence, however, may place the human-caused climate change outside what is considered natural. http://climate-expeditions.org/public/human-impacts- on-climate-change.html
- 15. http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1081/ “Downscaling of Global Climate Models” – to provide risk assessments that are “actionable”
- 16. “What do we know today about how global temperature changes? “The temperature of the air near the surface has been measured by land, sea and satellite instruments, very accurately since the 1970s and fairly accurately since the late 19th century (black curve in GRAPH A, below). Four main influences are known, and combining these gives quite a good match to the observations (orange curve in A). The known influences are: irregular “El Niño” fluctuations in the upwelling of deep cold waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which cool or warm the air for a few years (purple curve in B); sulfate smog particles emitted in volcanic eruptions, such as El Chichón in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991, which bring temporary cooling (blue curve); a quasi-regular cycle in the Sun’s activity that changes the radiation received at Earth (green curve); and human ("anthropogenic") changes — primarily emission of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels, but also other greenhouse gases and pollution such as smoke, and land-use changes such as deforestation (red curve). Theorists can calculate the actual influence of each factor, but only approximately. The authors of the model shown in the graph adjusted the weights to give the best fit to the observations. In particular, the global heating since the 1970s can be explained only by humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions. Note, for example, how the temperature trend in the first decade of the 21st century was generally flat because an upward push by anthropogenic forces was temporarily offset by a downward pull as solar activity decreased and the oceans absorbed more heat than usual from the atmosphere (sea water temperatures in fact continued to rise).” http://www.aip.org/history/climate/summary.htm
- 20. New York City
- 26. New York City Subway Hurricane Sandy Recovery Service As of Nov 1 [2012] http://www.wnyc.org/story /286581-subway-flooding- predictable-eerily-matches- climate-change-model/
- 27. “Port Jefferson, NY” US National Weather Service http://www.weather.gov/images/okx/Sandy/ManhattanLexingtonAve_WzohaibFl ickrNHCReport.jpg
- 28. The Precautionary Principle “…the “precautionary principle” is a notion which supports taking protective action before there is complete scientific proof of a risk; that is, action should not be delayed simply because full scientific information is lacking. The “precautionary principle” or precautionary approach has been incorporated into several international environmental agreements, and some claim that it is now recognized as a general principle of international environmental law.”
- 29. BUT… what happens when two precautionary principles seem to collide….? An “Economic” Principle (Jobs!) and An “Environmental” Principle (Health!)
- 30. IPCC 5th Assessment Report http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/ https://www.slideshare.net/IPCCGeneva/fifth-assessment-report-synthesis-report
- 31. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the international body for assessing the science related to climate change. The IPCC was set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to provide policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. IPCC assessments provide a scientific basis for governments at all levels to develop climate- related policies, and they underlie negotiations at the UN Climate Conference – the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The assessments are policy-relevant but not policy-prescriptive: they may present projections of future climate change based on different scenarios and the risks that climate change poses and discuss the implications of response options, but they do not tell policymakers what actions to take.” http://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/factsheets/FS_what_ipcc.pdf
- 33. Climate “Elevator Pitch”: Naomi Oreskes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rgapv3xDVDc
- 34. Climate “Elevator Pitch”: Eric Rignot http://climatecrocks.com/2015/02/09/climate-elevator-pitch-glaciologist-eric-rignot/
- 35. Climate Change: a Brief History
- 37. The Discovery of Global Warming (Feb 2015) • 1784 Benjamin Franklin, "Meteorological Imaginations and Conjectures (Paper Read 1784)." Memoirs of the Literary and Philosophical Society of Manchester 2nd ed., 1789: 373-77. REPRINTED Weatherwise 35, 262 (1982). • 1801William Herschel, "Observations Tending to Investigate the Nature of the Sun..." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 265: 265-318. • 1824 Joseph Fourier, "Remarques Générales Sur Les Températures Du Globe Terrestre Et Des Espaces Planétaires." Annales de Chemie et de Physique 27: 136-67. Translation by Ebeneser Burgess, "General Remarks on the Temperature of the Earth and Outer Space," American Journal of Science 32: 1-20 (1837) online here. • 1827 Joseph Fourier, "Mémoire Sur Les Températures Du Globe Terrestre Et Des Espaces Planétaires." Mémoires de l'Académie Royale des Sciences 7: 569-604. • 1838 Claude Pouillet, "Mémoire Sur La Chaleur Solaire..." Comptes Rendus de l'Académie des Sciences 7: 24-65. Translation by Richard Taylor, "Memoir on Solar Heat, the Radiative Effects of the Atmosphere, and the Temperature of Space," Scientific Memoirs 4 (London: Taylor and Francis, 1846), online here. • 1844 J. Sparks, Life of Benjamin Franklin, Vol. 6. Boston: Tappan & Dennett. • 1861 John Tyndall, "On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours..." Philosophical Magazine ser. 4, 22: 169-94, 273-85. Online here. • 1863 John Tyndall, "On Radiation through the Earth's Atmosphere." Philosophical Magazine ser. 4, 25: 200-206. • 1863 John Tyndall, "On the Relation of Radiant Heat to Aqueous Vapor." Philosophical Magazine ser. 4, 26: 30-54. • 1864 James Croll, "On the Physical Cause of the Change of Climate During Geological Epochs." Philosophical Magazine 28: 121-37. • 1873 W. Köppen, "Uber Mehrjährige Perioden der Witterung, Insbesondere Über die 11jährige Periode der Temperatur." Zeitschrift der Osterreichischen Gesellschaft für Meteorologie 8: 241-48, 141-50. • 1873 John Tyndall, Contributions to Molecular Physics in the Domain of Radiant Heat. New York: Appleton. • 1873 John Tyndall, "Further Researches on the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gaseous Matter (1862)." In Contributions to Molecular Physics in the Domain of Radiant Heat pp. 69-121. New York: Appleton. • 1875 James Croll, Climate and Time in Their Geological Relations. A Theory of Secular Changes of the Earth's Climate. New York: Appleton. • 1876 J.J. Murphy, "The Glacial Climate and the Polar Ice-Cap." Quarterly J. Geological Society of London 32: 400-06. • 1881 Franz von Czerney, Die Veränderlichkeit Des Klimas Und Ihre Ursachen. Vienna. • 1884 S.P. Langley, "Researches on Solar Heat and Its Absorption by the Earth's Atmosphere: A Report of the Mount Whitney Expedition." Professional Papers of the Signal Service 15: 1-242. • 1886 James Croll, Discussion on Climate and Cosmology. New York: Appleton. • 1886 S.P. Langley, "Observations on Invisible Heat-Spectra and the Recognition of Hitherto Ummeasured Wave-Lengths, Made at the Alleghany Observatory." Philosophical Magazine 31: 394-409. • 1888 George J. Symons, Ed. The Eruption of Krakatoa, and Subsequent Phenomena. Report of the Krakatoa Committee of the Royal Society. London: Trübner. • 1890 Eduard Brückner, Klimaschwankungen Seit 1700, Nebst Bemerkungen Über Die Klimaschwankungen Der Diluvialzeit. Vienna: Hölzel • 1890 Joseph Fourier, Oeuvres De Fourier, Edited by Gaston Darboux, Vol. 2. Paris: Gauthier-Villars. • 1890 E. Walter Maunder, "Professor Spoerer's Researches on Sun-Spots." Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 50: 251-52. • 1894 Arvid Högbom, "Om Sannolikheten För Sekulära Förändringar I Atmosfärens Kolsyrehalt." Svensk kemisk Tidskrift 6: 169-77. • 1895 Luigi De Marchi, Le Cause Dell'era Glaciale. Pavia: R. Istituto Lombardo. • 1895 Eugene Dubois, The Climates of the Geological Past and Their Relation to the Evolution of the Sun. London: Sonnenschein. • 1895 C.A. Young, The Sun. Akron, Ohio: Werner. • 1896 Svante Arrhenius, "On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air Upon the Temperature of the Ground." Philosophical Magazine 41: 237-76. Online here. http://www.aip.org/history/climate/bibdate.htm
- 39. The Evolution of Scientific Understanding of Climate Change • For over two centuries scientists have considered and studied why and how climate change occurs • Accumulations of data – driven by advances in methodology and in available technology – now provide strong support for currently accepted theories • But public skepticism continues…
- 41. Climate Change and Human Health https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap11_FINAL.pdf
- 42. “Figure 11-1 | Conceptual diagram showing three primary exposure pathways by which climate change affects health: directly through weather variables such as heat and storms; indirectly through natural systems such as disease vectors; and pathways heavily mediated through human systems such as undernutrition. The green box indicates the moderating influences of local environmental conditions on how climate change exposure pathways are manifest in a particular population. The gray box indicates that the extent to which the three categories of exposure translate to actual health burden is moderated by such factors as background public health and socioeconomic conditions, and adaptation measures. The green arrows at the bottom indicate that there may be feedback mechanisms, positive or negative, between societal infrastructure, public health, and adaptation measures and climate change itself… “ (courtesy of E. Garcia, UC Berkeley). https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap11_FINAL.pdf
- 43. Who is most affected??? https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap11_FINAL.pdf
- 44. Adaptation Strategies??? https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap11_FINAL.pdf
- 45. Co-Benefits of Mitigations Measures? https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap11_FINAL.pdf
- 52. THE PARIS CLIMATE ACCORDS
- 54. “[US-China] Climate Accord Relies on Environmental Policies Now in Place” “The United States and China should both be able to meet the stated goals by aggressively pursuing policies that are largely in place, these analysts said. For the United States, those include the Obama administration’s proposal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from coal plants, which would go into effect in 2017. Experts said that in practice it should be possible to wring more emissions cuts from that and other climate-related measures without adding to costs.” -- HENRY FOUNTAIN and JOHN SCHWARTZ Nov. 12, 2014 New York Times http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/11/13/world/climate-pact-by-us-and-china- relies-on-policies-now-largely-in-place.html?referrer&_r=0
- 55. NYT Video | “What the Climate Accord Could Change The possible effects for the coal and automobile industries of the landmark agreement between the United States and China.” http://www.nytimes.com/video/world/asia/100000003230992/what-the-climate-accord-could- change.html?playlistId=1194811622182®ion=video-grid&version=video-grid- thumbnail&contentCollection=Times+Video&contentPlacement=3&module=recent-