Keynote speech at Cisco Plus Luxembourg, March 2012

1. The extreme future of organizations
and what it means for your business
frederic de meyer
founder
institute for future insights
frederic@i4fi.com
www.i4fi.com
www.fredericdemeyer.com

2. why do I have to bother about
long-term trends?

3. let’s start with a challenge:
what do these have in common?

4. here’s a hint…
In 2002 Barbie lost its Until 2006 Coca Cola
Ford almost got out of market predominance was boycotted GM’s Hummer saw
business in the early to a new competitor multiple times in India sales drop 85% from
1900’s for sticking to it who just entered this due to its water 2006 to 2009
standardized products market the year mismanagement
before practices

5. sometimes long-term shifts can
have short-term consequences!

6. Building a vision of the future is about
connecting the dots

7. There’s different types of megatrends
trends we can be trends that are taking shape but a tiny bit
relatively certain of: future impact relatively uncertain: speculative:
DEMOGRAPHIC TECHNOLOGY
• aging population • ubiquitous computing • disintermediation
• increasing world population • disintermediation • crowdsourcing
• genY/Milennials • crowdsourcing • social Media
• urbanization/geographic mobility • social Media • augmented Reality
• multi-ethnic society • SaaS, DIY • 3D
• widening gap rich-poor • cloud Computing • enhanced humans
SUSTAINABILITY BUSINESS TRENDS
• global warming • shared value (CSR) • decentralization
• scarcity of resources • social Entrepreneurship • gamification
• energy dependency • Cause marketing • virtualization
• declining biodiversity • social Business • new business models
• green technologies • open inno/sourcing
CONSUMER GEOPOLITICS
• mass customization • radical transparency • power shift to East • trade blocs and unions
• social buying • globalization 3.0 • trade blocs and unions
• the Market State
• sustainable/ethical buying • rising middle class • the Market State
• Virtual currencies
SOCIETY
• dematerialization • talent shortage
(digitization) • boundary blurring
• digital divide

8. The future of professional organizations
can a $40b company be run by a
single person?

9. The world becomes your R&D center
Open innovation User generated
Open sourcing
platforms innovation
Most of Fortune 500 use Open sourcing spreads even Fiat Mio made through input
open innovation now to pharmaceutical market of +10,000 customers

10. Manufacturing without factories
3D printing impact on manufacturing, spare parts, transport, logistics, …
New opportunities in design and software

11. Can marketing tasks be done more efficiently with
alternative business models?
Open
Open
Innovation
Innovation
Open
Open
source
source
Outsourcing
Outsourcing
3D Printing
3D Printing

12. The world is your sales team

13. Technology becomes pervasive
Are Cloud computing, consumerization of IT and Do-it-Yourself
Taking away control and responsibility of IT?

14. What would a virtual company look like?
Disadvantages: Advantages:
R&D
• complexity • cost-efficiency gains
• loss of control • lean company
• less loyalty from contributors • constant innovation
Open
Open • more loyalty from customers
Innovation Manufact
Innovation
ICT Open uring
Open
source
source
Cloud,
Outsourcing
Outsourcing
Consumerization,
3D Printing
3D Printing
DIY
Virtual
Virtual company
Crowdsourcing
Crowdsourcing
Self help
Social buying
Social buying
Social media
Cust.
Marketing
Service
Affiliate
Micro-tasking programs
‘Crowd-selling’
Admin Sales

15. What would a virtual company look like?
R&D
Open
Innovation
Open
Manufac
ICT source turing
Cloud Outsourcing
Consumeri 3D Printing
zation
Virtual
company
Virtual
Social media Crowdsourcing
Self help Social buying
Cust. Marketing
Service
Affiliate
programs
Micro-tasking
‘Crowd-selling’
Admin Sales

16. What would a virtual company look like?
R&D
Open
Innovation Manufact
ICT Open uring
source
Cloud
Outsourcing
Consumerization
3D Printing
Virtual
Crowdsourcing
Social media
Social buying
Self help
Cust.
Marketing
Service
Affiliate
Micro-tasking programs
‘Crowd-selling’
Admin Sales

17. But what does it mean for your business?
R&D
Open
Innovation
Open
Manufac
ICT source turing
Cloud Outsourcing
Consumeri 3D Printing
zation
Virtual
company
Virtual
Social media Crowdsourcing
Self help Social buying
Cust. Marketing
Service
Affiliate
programs
Micro-tasking
‘Crowd-selling’
HRM Sales

18. Building your vision of the future is about
connecting the dots

19. The future cannot be predicted
…but it can be made !
(ancient African saying)
www.i4fi.com
www.fredericdemeyer.com
additional questions: frederic@i4fi.com

20. Are you prepared to make the maximum
out of long-term trends?
“Frederic offers a unique insight of how global changes
translate into new business opportunities. This book is an
essential tool for any future-oriented manager or
entrepreneur and anyone involved in innovation strategies”
Philippe De Ridder, co-founder, Board of Innovation
“Designing and implementing a good strategy is quite a
challenge. In an increasingly complex world, it is becoming
increasingly difficult to recognize the core from the noise.
This book on megatrends will help you do this. It will give
you the necessary insights to focus on the themes that are
crucial to the future of your company. A must read!”
Jeroen De Flander, co-founder, The Performance
Factory, author of Strategy Execution Heroes
“This excellent book is a comprehensive overview of the
major trends and also offers a methodology to better assess
the future reality and master its consequences. The author
provides an essential guide for any strategy exercise”
Peter Corijn, Vice-President, Procter & Gamble
Now available on
click here (in presentation mode)

21. Are you prepared to make the maximum
out of long-term trends?
40 megatrend fact-sheets that
will:
 prepare your team for long-
term planning session;
 help you understand the
long-term challenges of your
business;
 discover new opportunities
for your business;
 generate innovative ideas to
ensure your long-term success!
Now available at:
www.i4fi.com/useful_tools