Megatrends vs antitrends


Published on

We tend to see megatrends as moving exponentially in the future, forgetting that counter-movements can become quite predominant as well at some point. This presentation gives a preview into what would happen if either the trends or their 'antitrend' would prevail. Obviously, the real future will be somewhere inbetween, this is just a thought experiment... enjoy!

Published in: Technology

Megatrends vs antitrends

  1. 1. megatrends and antitrends how the extreme future might look likefrederic de meyerfounderinstitute for future
  2. 2. What this presentation is about• No trend will grow exponentially indefinitely … for most trends we investigate at the Institute for Future Insights, we can imagine (or actually see) ‘antitrends’ emerge. How the future will turn out at the end will depend on the dynamics between trends and antitrends (and on black swans, of course).• This presentation is a thought experiment to see what would happen if either trends or antitrends would become predominant. This is a ‘black and white’ story, the ultimate ‘truth’ will obviously lie somewhere in between….• This is a neutral investigation and does not intend at formulating any judgment !
  3. 3. globalization localizationThe world will become one An increasing portion of oursingle market without consumption will originateboundaries from our direct environmentMain drivers: Main drivers:• connectivity • protectionism• cheap labor and products • global warming, climate change• trading blocks • cost of transport (oil)
  4. 4. urbanization back to the countryVirtually all humankind will Increasing amount of people willlive in urban areas choose to live away from citiesMain drivers: Main drivers:• opportunities • health• access to education, health • connectivity (distant working)• communities
  5. 5. new forms of migration …will prove unfoundedGlobal warming will instigate New technologies will countermassive new migration global warming effectsMain drivers: Main drivers:• famine, desertification extreme weather • genetic engineeringconditions • social entrepreneurship• talent gap and aging population will make • increasing young population (as % of totaldeveloped countries attract new migrants population) increases growth potential
  6. 6. scarcity of natural people will learn to live resources with lessHumanity will keep on Humanity will learn to balanceconsuming scarce natural consumption and availability ofresources until they run dry natural resourcesMain drivers: Main drivers:• rise of middle class in emerging markets • scarcity of natural resources• globalization • sustainability becomes major business concern • green technologies
  7. 7. geographic mobility work and learn at homeGenY will massively move to Work and learning will bewhere the (economic) action is totally location-independentMain drivers: Main drivers:• decline of developed economies • technological advancements• long-lasting crises • virtual corporations• multicultural world • microtasking, crowdsourcing, open innovation
  8. 8. genY ~ genY = new paradigm (babyboomers)^(x)GenY will bring a completely GenY will revive some of thenew set of values to work and traditional values ofsociety (grand)parentsMain drivers: Main drivers:• self awareness (‘me’ generation) • aversion of complexity• ethically conscious, sensible to sustainability • social ‘not-working’• bring own technology to workspace • back to human touch
  9. 9. customization simplificationEvery product made will Consumers will return to ‘oneeventually be tailor-made size fits all’ productsMain drivers: Main drivers:• power of consumers • aversion of complexity• genY self-awareness • benefits do not match the cost• production sophistication
  10. 10. opting out becomesever more connected fashionable People will retract fromVirtually all people and things connected life in search of theare connected to a central grid ‘real’ experienceMain drivers:• digital divide Main drivers:• imperative to make a living • simplicity• social existence • traditionalists (back to ancestors’ values)
  11. 11. robotization and hands and crafts automation revivalVirtually all human (professional) Traditional work will be coolactivity will be automated or and very much sought-afterperformed by robots Main drivers:Main drivers: • increased risk (due to increased dependency on• efficiency gains tech)• technological advancements • personal touch / creativity• artificial intelligence
  12. 12. market state state controlPrivate companies will Government will increasinglyincreasingly take over public take over (troubled) privateresponsibility activitiesMain drivers: Main drivers:• public debt • crises• globalization • anti-globalism, anti-capitalism• social entrepreneurship
  13. 13. Discover our services… ° thought-provoking speeches for your strategic planning session or industry event ° training on how to manage a megatrend exercise in your company ° assist you all the way in conducting an in-house megatrend exercise ° audit your business in how future-proof you –and your competitors- are in the light of megatrendswebsite www.i4fi.comblog www.fredericdemeyer.commail frederic@i4fi.comPhone +32 478 68 13 08for useful long-term planning tools:
  14. 14. Are you prepared to make the maximum out of long-term trends? “Frederic offers a unique insight of how global changes translate into new business opportunities. This book is an essential tool for any future-oriented manager or entrepreneur and anyone involved in innovation strategies” Philippe De Ridder, co-founder, Board of Innovation “Designing and implementing a good strategy is quite a challenge. In an increasingly complex world, it is becoming increasingly difficult to recognize the core from the noise. This book on megatrends will help you do this. It will give you the necessary insights to focus on the themes that are crucial to the future of your company. A must read!” Jeroen De Flander, co-founder, The Performance Factory, author of Strategy Execution Heroes “This excellent book is a comprehensive overview of the major trends and also offers a methodology to better assess the future reality and master its consequences. The author provides an essential guide for any strategy exercise” Peter Corijn, Vice-President, Procter & Gamble Now available on click here (in presentation mode)