Using megatrends for future success


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Using megatrends for future success

  1. 1. using megatrends to ensure the future success of your businessfrederic de
  2. 2. let’s start with a challenge:what do these have in common?
  3. 3. here’s a hint… In 2002 Barbie lost its Until 2006 Coca ColaFord almost got out of market predominance was boycotted GM’s Hummer saw business in the early to a new competitor multiple times in India sales drop 85% from1900’s for sticking to it who just entered this due to its water 2006 to 2009standardized products market the year before mismanagement practices
  4. 4. sometimes long-term shifts canhave short-term consequences!
  5. 5. but megatrends offer concrete opportunities as well Siemens Crowdsourcing, Tata’s Nano-car reorganization aligns specifically designed philanthropic activities desintermediation and each business unit to a open innovation arefor rising middle class challenge linked to mixes core product in India with social good creating complete megatrends new industries
  6. 6. so why understanding and assessingmegatrends is crucial for the future of your business?
  7. 7. before we start… what are megatrends exactly? one hurricane is not a trend, it’s an event... an increasing number of hurricanes in the US is a trend, not necessarily a megatrend a worldwide increase in number and intensity of hurricanes would be a megatrend and the consequences might trigger new (mega)trends
  8. 8. look beyond the obvious… megatrends sometimes do have unsuspected consequences ageing populationimpact obvious health care governments need to prepare for massive elderly need to find a solution for worsening population with specific needs worker/retired ratio retail need to adapt to changing consumption patterns education needs to develop specific programs to transport keep elderly at work entertainment/leisure public transport need to adapt to needs need to prepare for specific needs and of elderly population time of retired people finance/insurance manufacturing specific offering for elderly people needs to find solutions for skills gap/ talent shortage marketing elderly people will keep at work through crowdsourcing.? utilities adapt services to specific needs of elderlyimpact less obvious
  9. 9. look beyond the obvious… megatrends sometimes do have unsuspected consequences desintermediationimpact obvious retail shops did loose some business already through direct selling/ ecommerce music industry some fan-funding models have gone banking broke, others getting successful peer-to-peer lending growing from 800m$ to 3b$ this year marketing crowdsourcing and open innovation eating away share head hunting recruitment websites and social media are being used for talent search IT services „do it yourself‟ concepts are getting mainstream health care „peer-to-peer‟ health provision projects arise in US Consulting get instant / online / mass-customized advise? Governments direct redistribution of wealth?impact less obvious
  10. 10. it‟s the crucial first step to ensure your future success 2. Business Model 1. Megatrend exercise 3. Strategy execution innovation Mega trends generate strategic make strategic make strategy ideas decisions work
  11. 11. in fact, megatrends could potentially transform manyareas of your business…external new new business new needs of new customer competitors models customers segments megatrendsinternal new talents and new marketing new go-to- new production new ecosystems competencies mix market models processes
  12. 12. …and there are plenty megatrends to take into account…
  13. 13. how to assess the impact of megatrends on your company and draw meaningful conclusions for your business strategy
  14. 14. here‟s a simple process to assess the impact of megatrends onyour company: #1 identify Mega trends Megatrends to discuss #2 discuss Megatrends internally #3 draw conclusions and recommendations #4 Communicate results internally and externally
  15. 15. but the devil is in the detail…
  16. 16. guidelines for selecting trends to assess in your company Mega trends • don’t select (solely) trends with an obvious impact on your industry or company… the most successful ideas for innovation will come from elsewhere; • get your ideas and selection from a combination of internal (survey) and external (consultants) input; • generate 50 ideas for megatrends, select 20 to discuss.
  17. 17. guidelines for discussing trends in your company • Invite people with different background, functions and seniority • follow a discussion template (though don’t stick to it); • take notes during the discussion; • 5-6 persons per theme, 30-60 min. per trend; • also look at anti-trends; • keep it fun !
  18. 18. guidelines for drawing conclusions from the trendsdiscussions • segment the trends so as to show which ones need action or a close monitoring • map the way megatrends impact your customer segments and stakeholders
  19. 19. guidelines for communicating the conclusions of themegatrends exercise • Set up different documents dependent on target group and aim:
  20. 20. long-term shifts do have a shortterm effect… prepare your business now!
  21. 21. do you want to use megatrend assessments to ensure the future success of your company? Get some help… ° thought-provoking opening keynote for your strategic planning session ° train you on how to manage a megatrend exercise in your company ° assist you all the way in conducting an in-house megatrend exercise ° audit your business in how future-proof you –and your competitors- are in the light of megatrendswebsite www.i4fi.comblog www.fredericdemeyer.commail frederic@i4fi.comPhone +32 478 68 13 08
  22. 22. Preliminary reactions to the book:discover more… “Frederic offers a unique insight of how global changes translate into new business opportunities. This book is an essential tool for any future-oriented manager or entrepreneur, and anyone who is… in depth coverage of the impact of 20 megatrends on involved in innovation strategies.” Philippe De Ridder, co-founder, Board of Innovationindustries and companies; "Its a challenge to design a great strategy. In an world with… more than 10 case studies constant information overload, leaders have to learn to separate the core from the noise. Megatrends will help you get this job… full details and best practices on the megatrend-exercise done. This book will give you all necessary insights to identify those themes that are crucial for the future of your company. A must read!” Jeroen De Flander, co-founder, The Performance Factory, “The impact of megatrends on your company” author of “Strategy Execution Heroes” “Looking at the future with an open mind is an essential ingredient of leadership. This book has the merit of enabling this competence in a very pragmatic way. The reality is too complex Available in Dutch at Die Keure Business & and dynamic to leave it to specialized bureaus and top Economics publishers management to deal with. Sustainable companies have all their employees aligned to a common view of the future” ISBN: 978 90 4861 210 9 Koen Marichal, Director The Future Leadership Initiative, Antwerp Management School “This book is an excellent overview of the major trends, but on top of that offers a methodology to better assess the future reality and master its consequences. The author provides an essential guideline for any strategy exercise” English version available on in Peter Corijn, Vice-President, Procter & Gamble Available December in English “A clear and comprehensible summary of the major trends that (send me an e-mail at if you makes you think about adapting your corporate strategy to the as from want to get notified when the book becomes new reality” November Ralph Van Lysebeth, Country Manager, Packard Bell available)