Chmyr Olha. WHY TEAMS ALWAYS F*CK UP WITH THEIR OWN ESTIMATES
1. WHY TEAMS ALWAYS
F*CK UP WITH THEIR
OWN ESTIMATES
OLHA CHMYR,
PROJECT MANAGER, SPD-UKRAINE (PitchBook)
2. ● 5 years of Project Management
● worked for startups, small/medium
companies, and FMCG corporations
● beautiful creatures and coffee lover
● Project Manager at SPD-Ukraine
(PitchBook)
ABOUT ME:
7. TIME ESTIMATES PROCESS
DEFINE THE TARGET
DIVE INTO DETAILS
● split into obvious subtasks;
● do not get brought away with
detailed detailing.
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8. DEFINE RISKY SUBTASKS
ESTIMATE TIME
FOR DETAILED TASK
● include non-productive hours;
● include time for code review, integration and other dev activities.
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TIME ESTIMATES PROCESS
9. LET’S TALK MORE ABOUT
NUMBERS AND UNKNOWNS
● Ask for at least 2 estimates –
min and max
(it is better to have even three –
min, max and most likely);
● More unknowns, less confidence
10. UNKNOWNS AND UNKNOWN
UNKNOWNS
● Do we understand the spec well?
● How many negative cases are
covered in the spec?
● How will we test the system?
● How will the system behave at the
moment of failure?
11. ● Can the architecture be scaled?
● What are the risks associated with this solution
and to the choices about to be made?
● How will we monitor the system?
● Is it possible to complete a task more
straightforwardly while still accomplishing
a business task?
UNKNOWNS AND UNKNOWN
UNKNOWNS
12. YOU CAN BREAK THE ANALYSIS PARALYSIS
● Can it last for a
half a year? ● Can it last for a
week?
● Can it last for a
month? ● Can it last for a
day?
14. HOW TO AVOID MISTAKES
● do not get brought away with detailed detailing;
● include risky tasks and increase their estimate;
● provide more specificity in the task;
● split into the subtasks until everyone feels
well comfortable about them;
15. HOW TO AVOID MISTAKES
● calculate individual coefficient of error
estimation;
● include the blocking dependencies between
the tasks of different devs.
● investigate tasks which are hard to estimate;
● include non-productive time expenditures;
27. If everything is as usual, how much time
do you need to finish the task
How did the events go, which of
them usually lead to the timing shift?
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