#NOESTIMATES thinking #iad14 Massimo Iacolare
@iacoware

my journey

MYTH

Estimating
sucks!

Estimating sucks! End of story.
Questions?

Estimating sucks! End of story.
Questions? Relax, I’m kidding ;-)

Estimating sucks! End of story.
Questions? Relax, I’m kidding ;-) kind of…

just lazy?

from
#NoEstimates
to
#NoSalary

woody zuill @woodyzuill vasco duarte
@duarte_vasco Neil killick @neil_killick Ángel Medinilla @angel_m J.B. rainsberger @jbrains Chris R. Chapman @DerailleurAgile Joshua Kerievsky @JoshuaKerievsky Henri Karhatsu @karhatsu many more…

#NoEstimates is a hashtag for
the topic of exploring alternatives to estimates for making decisions in software development. That is, ways to make decisions with 'No Estimates' Woody Zuill

“#NoEstimates is a critique to
how estimates are usually handled not to how they should be done”

ED D

ED EVELOPMENT
STIMATES
RIVEN
D

WHY ESTIMATES
DON’T HELP

WRITING
SOFTWARE

DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY every project
brings something new

Domain Technology - tools process
people

Domain Technology - tools process
people + we learn by doing

UNCERTAINTY
&
upfront
ESTIMATES ?

Oil & water

unreliable

MOST useful at the beginning
maximum ignorance

Cost of a feature essential
complexity +

Cost of a feature essential
complexity accidental complexity + Foundamental theorem of agile software development

How much time do you
need to add “customer promotions” to our e-commerce?

How much time do you
need to add “customer promotions” to our e-commerce?

BIASES optimism bias anchoring bias
LOSS AVERSION AVAILABILITY BIAS sunk cost fallacy SELECTIVE PERCEPT. …many more

we suck at making
predictions

side effects

Set
Expectations

Foster plans detailed plans detailed
backlog

“estimating means you’re getting married
to a plan, which you know is wrong even when you start” vasco duarte

learn by doing “estimating means
you’re getting married to a plan, which you know is wrong even when you start” vasco duarte

Hinder
Adaptation

loss aversion
Hinder
Adaptation

promote
cost-based
mindset

cost ↳number ↳certain value ↳
??? ↳ UNcertain

availability bias cost ↳number ↳certain
value ↳ ??? ↳ UNcertain

Costs become the target to
Hit

same cost
more features

same cost
more features

more features
=
better software

more features
==
better software

more features == in case
you are a developer better software

more features
==
better software

more features == in case
you come from javascript = better software

more features == in case
you come from javascript = better software Fallacy

minimize output
maximize outcome

more features = bigger codebase
= Hinder ADAPTation

more features = bigger codebase
= Hinder ADAPTation again

BETTER SOFTWARE

BETTER features
=
BETTER SOFTWARE

RECAP

don’t help with uncertainty plagued
by fallacies foster detailed plans COST-based mindset hinder adaptation

Where’s the
exit, please?

step 0
sign the contract

get off to a good
start

get off to a good
start affect execution

the perils of
fixed-price
fixed-scope

fixed price - fixed scope
requirements (estimated plan) a price a delivery date

fixed price - fixed scope
requirements (estimated plan) a price a delivery date

premises requirements captured the problem
you understood the problem Uncertainty doesn’t exist estimates are correct execution goes smootly

premises requirements captured the problem
you understood the problem Uncertainty doesn’t exist estimates are correct execution goes smootly

premises requirements captured the problem
you understood the problem Uncertainty doesn’t exist estimates are correct execution goes smootly

customer problem fp-fs things go
wrong you fail you suck

customer problem fp-fs things go
wrong you fail you suck bigger penalty fees

customer problem fp-fs things go
wrong you fail you suck bigger penalty fees more analysis

you f*ck me, I F*ck
you fixed-price, fixed-scope contracts

Agile contracts Capped time-material incremental
delivery

the exit,
please?

adopt a development style which
doesn’t rely on estimates

we learn by doing so
we should hit the target iteratively

adopt a development style which
foster a healthy, mature relationship with my customers

do the right thing do
it right do it iteratively

do the right thing do
it right

do the right thing solve
the right problem the starting point matters

map the problem with story
mapping

jeff patton

communication tool whole point of
Xp: business people and technical people should talk help build customer trust Visualizing your strategy

story mapping
benefits

build a shared
understanding

spot story’s
holes

build effective releases prioritize by
outcome, not features walking skeleton plan to reduce uncertainty

avoid silos Users catalog cart
promo payments

avoid silos Users catalog cart
promo payments

avoid silos Users catalog cart
promo payments

avoid silos Users catalog cart
promo payments

avoid silos Users catalog cart
promo payments

avoid silos Users catalog cart
promo payments

avoid silos Users catalog cart
promo payments

avoid silos Users catalog cart
promo payments

avoid silos Users catalog cart
promo payments

avoid silos Users catalog cart
promo payments

avoid silos Users catalog cart
promo payments

avoid silos Users catalog cart
promo payments

keep plans lightweight embrace flexible
scope half life of requirements

do it right get better
at software development how hard can it be?

do it right get better
at software development how hard can it be?

support an iterative-incremental style of
development

what do we need?

tight feedback loop slice scope
exploit iterative development technical excellence to keep it all together

tight feedback loop tdd ↔
continuous delivery

slice everything generate options always
assume there’s a simpler way defer commitment

exploit iterative development don’t know
what i want Uncertainty-Jeff-Patton

“if you work on it
only once you are not doing iterative development”

tech. EXCellence you’ll need to
grow your design incrementally… …so you won’t get stuck and rewrite it every time you touch it

iterative development is the result
of your well trained technical abilities

nurture your
skills

technical xp practices pair programming
simple design refactoring tdd

“#NoEstimates is merely a call
to refocus on the agile manifesto” Woody Zuill

Individuals and interactions over Processes
and tools Working software over Comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over Contract negotiation Responding to change over Following a plan

Individuals and interactions over Processes
and tools Working software over Comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over Contract negotiation Responding to change over Following a plan #NoEstimates

Massimo Iacolare freelance .net and
js expert quality addicted love shipping features love making users happy co-founder of the awesome

Lambacon - marzo 2015, bologna

Thanks
Questions?
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