Mark Howden from the ANU Climate Change Institute discussed challenges and opportunities for adapting to climate change. He summarized that the impacts of climate change on crop yields are increasingly understood, but there is still significant uncertainty and gaps in knowledge. Adaptations considered have largely been incremental changes to existing systems, but more transformational and systemic adaptations may be needed. Effective adaptations consider social and institutional factors like information networks, norms, and adoption paths. Looking at whole food systems and value chains can help integrate climate issues with other opportunities and pressures. Research to operations requires addressing potential conflicts of interest and clearly communicating a diverse range of adaptation options and their risks and benefits.

1. Challenges
ahead as a
result of climate
change: what
works and how
has the
challenge
changed?
Mark Howden
ANU Climate Change Institute
Addis Ababa, 12-14 April 2016

2. ANU CCI / ANU ECI Porter et al. 2014
Impacts of climate change on major crop yield
increasingly understood
• High level of variation and uncertainty
• Limited range of adaptations assessed
• Issues not included (e.g. pests and diseases, climate
variability), timescales problematic

3. ANU CCI / ANU ECI Porter et al. 2014
Yield variability likely to increase

4. ANU CCI / ANU ECI
• livestock
• minor and ‘orphan’ crops
• nutrition and quality aspects
• value chains
• social norms and institutional arrangements
• less is known of the stability dimension of food
security than availability and access
• these gaps often align with issues most
important to poor people and to less-developed
regions
• the likelihood of rapidly closing these gaps
seems low
Limitations and gaps

5. ANU CCI / ANU ECI
From research to an operational system
Lacey et al. 2014, Howden et al. 2013

6. ANU CCI / ANU ECI
• the consequence of not matching genetics,
management or strategy to the climate is either
underperformance and/or increasing risk
• often single, simple, technical and short-term
adaptations to existing systems with little
attention to the more complex, compound, highly
contextual, strategic, tacit, socially and
institutionally-mediated changes that often
characterise real-world change processes
• Link to mitigation and other dimensions of
change
Adaptation: a ‘no-brainer’ often not well-covered

7. ANU CCI / ANU ECI
• Subtle pressures to focus on existing systems
only may result in maladaptation
– and in missed opportunities
• Need to consider more systemic and
transformational adaptations
– increasingly so as changes continue
Incremental Systemic
Transformational
Howden et al. (2010), Rickards and Howden (2012), Vermuelen et al. (2013), Ripphe et al. (2016)
Comprehensiveness: More than incremental

8. ANU CCI / ANU ECI
• Relative advantage
• Compatibility
• Complexity or simplicity
• Trialability
• Observability
• All challenging if framed as only for future risk
• Therefore need to focus on existing systems and
managing climate variability and trends and
integrating with other issues
• Address path-dependency
Rogers (1962)
Designing better adoption paths

9. ANU CCI / ANU ECIHowden et al. 2004, Crimp et al. 2016
Ignore 100-year Decadal -
Adaptive
Mean gross margin (Wagga) $119/ha +$8/ha +$17/ha
Mean gross margin (Emerald) $34/ha -$5/ha +$18/ha
50s
60s
70s
80s
00s
Adapting to trends in frost risk is profitable

10. ANU CCI / ANU ECI
2007 2009 2011 2012
 no cultivation, no-
till and stubble
retention
 guidance systems
 press wheels for
water harvesting
 inter-row sowing
 opportunity
cropping
 less canola and
pulses
 hay
 soil testing for N
and water
 sowing by the
calendar not on
moisture (dry
sowing)
 containment
areas for
livestock
 low P rates and
N only just in
time
 postpone
machinery
purchases
 no burning of
stubbles
 shorter season
and heat
tolerant
varieties
 variable sowing
rate
 improve sheep
production
 canola only on
soil moisture
 bought and
leased more
light (sandy)
country
 concentrate on
marketing
(futures and
foreign
exchange rates)
 decrease debt
 off-farm income
 reduce costs
 improve harvest
efficiency
 simplify all
operations
 larger
paddocks –
easier
management
 improve
labour
efficiency
 improve
financial
management
 requirement
for more
information
and
knowledge
Crimp et al. 2012
The climate adaptation journey

11. ANU CCI / ANU ECI
A. Incremental
adaptor
B. Transformational adaptor
Social norms and social learning is important
Dowd et al. (2014) reflecting Rogers (1962), Becker (1970), Granovetter (1973)

12. ANU CCI / ANU ECI
A. Incremental
adaptor
B. Transformational
adaptor
Dowd et al. (2014)
Information networks

13. ANU CCI / ANU ECI
FUTURE IMPACTS?
CURRENT
IMPACTS Sudden
demand
for
alternative
product
stream
Less
predictabl
e farming
conditions
Road
closures
and
disruption
s
Increased
energy
costs
Increased
demand
for low-
carbon
products
Increased
fuel costs
Non-viable
farming
regions
Worker
heat
stress
Increased
pressures
for low-
carbon
New
varieties;
variation in
quality
Lim Camacho et al. 2014
• Climate issues integrated with other issues/opportunities
Look at food systems and value chains

14. ANU CCI / ANU ECI
• potential conflicts of interest (e.g. disciplinary bias,
researchers advocating their own research, preferencing
career metrics over value to decision-makers)
• mechanical adherence to quantitative modelling and focus
on the explicit rather than the tacit
• mis-representation of research results as uncontroversial
inputs into the operational decision-making of end-users
• lack of unbiased and comprehensive communication of
the diverse options and the benefits/risks associated with
them
• lack of awareness of the very different relationship a
researcher and a decision-maker have to the adaptation
decision itself in relation to risk and responsibility
• lack of clarity between research and operational aspects
Ethics in research
Lacey et al. 2015

15. ANU CCI / ANU ECI
Summary: real, robust, options, talk

16. Thankyou
Prof Mark Howden
ANU Climate Change Institute
mark.howden@anu.edu.au
+61 2 6125 7266
Vice Chair, IPCC Working Group II