1. Tracking adaptation progress is crucial for informing the global stocktake and accelerating effective adaptation globally. 2. However, there is little knowledge on the effectiveness of adaptation policies and actions in reducing climate risks. 3. A new approach called GAP-Track is proposed to track adaptation beyond the country level and indicators, using expert judgement to assess adaptation challenges across multiple dimensions.

1. From IPCC insights to new,
complementary approaches to track
adapta
ti
on progress
A1. Adapta
ti
on in the global stocktake – Understanding e
ff
ec
ti
veness of adapta
ti
on ac
ti
on
Alexandre K. Magnan
Climate Change Expert Group (CCXG)
Global Forum on the Environment and Climate Change
13-14 September 2022
OECD Headquarters and Conference Centre, 2 Rue André Pascal, 75016 Paris
In-person Forum with option for remote participation
The Global Forum, organised by the OECD-IEA Climate Change Expert Group (CCXG)1
, aims to promote dialogue
and enhance understanding among a range of countries on key issues relevant to the international climate
change negotiations and implementation of the Paris Agreement. The CCXG develops analytical papers and holds
regular Global Forums and other events that bring together practitioners and negotiators from developed and
developing countries, as well as delegates from inter-governmental organisations, the private sector, research
organisations and other relevant institutions.
This Global Forum will focus on adaptation in the global stocktake, authorisation and confidentiality issues under
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, and the Mitigation Work Programme agreed to at COP26. There will also be
sessions on the outcomes of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement, and on key issues on finance for losses
and damages. The session on enhancing implementation of adaptation action is organised in partnership with
the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Global Network / International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).
The session on moving to successful outcomes of the global stocktake is organised in partnership with the
Independent Global Stocktake (iGST). Participants will also hear about recent OECD work under the Clean Energy
Finance and Investment Mobilisation (CEFIM) programme as well as recent IEA work on the World Energy
Global Forum on the Environment and Climate Change
13-14 September 2022
(alexandre.magnan@iddri.org)

2. Global climate risk
Very high
High
Moderate
Undetectable
Today End 21st century
Low
emissions
High
emissions
a = Without adapta
ti
on
A = With ambi
ti
ous adapt.
Increasing adaptation efforts worldwide, but not at scale,
and incremental rather than transformational (IPCC, UNEP AGR)
Insights from the IPCC WG2 report (Feb. 2022)
1. Climate risk is increasing (and possibly
accelerating), today x2 to x4
2. Adaptation can substantially reduce
climate risk…
3. … but not fully eradicate risk (some risk
increase will remain, compared to today)
—> Residual risks are to be considered
4. This reveals the existence of adaptation
limits (institutional, financial, socio-
cultural, technological), hard vs. soft
5. Shrinking
solution
space
every community, nor will it address the
impacts of rising groundwater and river
flows in every coast (6) or the existing and
increasing residual risks (e.g., when levees
fail). In low-lying coastal areas across dif-
ferent geomorphologies and levels of de-
velopment, retreat offers an alternative
option (see the first figure) that ultimately
removes vulnerability and risk in situ.
A DYNAMIC STRATEGY
Retreat is not easy, for various reasons,
including attachment to place, high costs,
lack of risk awareness, impacts on inland
settlements, and political resistance (3).
For example, retreat means sunk costs of
existing investments in public infrastruc-
ture and private property and does not ad-
dress the risk to cultural assets that cannot
be relocated. However, among the reasons
that make managed retreat beneficial is
that it enables long-term change at the
cal approach developed to do exactly this
and is increasingly used to support cli-
mate change adaptation decision-making.
To date, DAPP planning has been used to
address adaptation to SLR in several loca-
tions, including the Netherlands, the UK,
the US, and New Zealand, where measures
have included no-build zones and com-
munity and assets relocation (5, 6, 8). The
long-term perspective puts retreat on the
table next to protection and accommoda-
tion measures (see the first figure), avoid-
ing increasing investments that eventually
become higher sunk costs.
A first step in pathways planning is to
assess the hazard, vulnerabilities, and
uncertainties and to identify adaptation
options. An adaptation option may fail
to achieve objectives and/or may reach a
performance limit or threshold (also re-
ferred to as an adaptation tipping point) as
conditions change (e.g., SLR); a new or ad-
ways design is often done in a staged ma
with increasing depth of analysis. For p
the city of Miami, Florida, potential path
were first developed using narratives, b
ing stakeholders: What could be short
mid-term, and long-term adaptation op
What is the next option? Promising op
and pathways were then further assess
ing detailed models. In the Netherlan
study assessed the solution space for m
ple meters of SLR before exploring path
The study concluded that spatial pla
that recognizes the consequences of
term SLR is needed, because of the unce
potentially high SLR.
Monitoring is typically used to e
ate success of implementation but is
needed for detecting early warning
nals on approaching thresholds and
dows of opportunities for preemptiv
tions (e.g., new insights on future ris
new social values). This helps to id
Lack of tim
Coastal
population growth
and migration
Salination threatens
fresh water for food
and drinking
Gravity drainage
not possible,
pumping required
Unaffordable
Lack of
available land
Attachment
to place
No-build
zones Socioeconomic
developments
outside coastal zone
Culture of living
with the sea
End of
infrastruc
lifetime
Effective retreat
to other areas
Lack of
insurance
Other solutions
no longer viable
or affordable
Funding, e.g.,
buyout
Salination threatens
fresh water for food
and drinking
Insufficient risk
reduction
Awareness
Sunk costs
History of
protection
Flooding of stormwater and
wastewater infrastructure
Flooding of storm-
water and wastewater
infrastructure
Culture of living at the coast
Sea level rise
International
funding
Insufficient risk reduction
Protect or advance
Retreat
Accommodate
Shrinking solution space
Widening the solution space
Urban atoll
islands
Large agricultural
tropical deltas
Resource-r
megacities
Stylized examples of coastal archetypes
Arctic
communities
The evolving and shrinking solution space to address sea level rise
The colored areas show how the solution space to protect or advance, accommodate, and retreat changes as sea level rises. Different drivers and soft or hard
limits shape this space.The figure highlights, first, a general narrowing of the solution space as a whole and, second, a change in the ratio between the three adapta
strategies, with retreat becoming dominant.This applies differently across coastal archetypes [derived from (1); see inset] owing to local contexts.
SPECIAL SECTION CLIMATE-INDUCED RELOCATION
Source:
Magnan
et
al.
2021
Source: Haasnoot et al. 2021

3. So, ambi
ti
ous adapta
ti
on is urgent,… but
where do we stand on this globally ?
Why is tracking so important?
In view of the GST, tracking adapta
ti
on is crucial/decisive to
(i) Re
fi
ne global needs and priori
ti
es for climate risk reduc
ti
on,
(ii) Support more e
ff
ec
ti
ve adapta
ti
on across regions, sectors
and popula
ti
ons (e
ff
ec
ti
ve here = in terms risk reduc
ti
on)
(iii) And ul
ti
mately support a sharp accelera
ti
on of e
ff
orts
towards more e
ff
ec
ti
ve and ambi
ti
ous adapta
ti
on globally.
E.g.: are we able to adapt to the impacts/risks of a 1.5/2°C warming?
And at what costs (residual risks, adapta
ti
on limits, etc.)
We need ‘‘More of Be
tt
er’’

4. Problem: actually li
tt
le knowledge on adapta
ti
on policy/prac
ti
ce e
ff
ec
ti
veness
(against risk reduc
ti
on)
Spurring domes
ti
c/na
ti
onal/
local/project-level ac
ti
on
Understanding climate risks Spurring/informing
Interna
ti
onal ac
ti
on
Assessing adapta
ti
on progress
- UNFCCC Adapta
ti
on Commi
tt
ee
- Global Commission on Adapta
ti
on
- UNEP Adapta
ti
on Gap Report
- OECD (coastal adapta
ti
on)
- Indep. Global Stocktake (iGST)
- UNEP Adapta
ti
on Gap Report
- UNFCCC analysis of Adapta
ti
on
Communica
ti
ons
- World Bank Resilience Ra
ti
ng System
- AFD (adapta
ti
on co-bene
fi
ts
assessment)
- Adapta
ti
on Communica
ti
ons
- UK Climate Change Commi
tt
ee
- Development banks (BAD, AFD, etc.)
- Etc.
- IPCC reports (WG2)
- Scien
ti
fi
c literature
- GermanWatch Climate Risk Index
- UK COP26 Presidency (science
program)
- ND-Gain Index
- INFORM Risk plateforme (EU)
How to track adapta
ti
on?
Several ini
ti
a
ti
ves (OECD, UNFCCC
AC, UNEP AGR, etc.), most o
ft
en
with:
- A county-level entry point
- Based on quan
ti
ta
ti
ve indicators
Facing similar issues rela
ti
ng to:
- Data/indicators (nature and
availability)
- Reluctancy from countries to be
ranked and compared (reading
their adapta
ti
on e
ff
orts)
There is a need for complementary approaches (not on a
country-base, not en
ti
rely relying on indicators, etc.)

5. - ‘‘Beyond countries’’: structured
around adaptation challenges/
priorities related to climate risks
GAP-Track (Global Adapta
ti
on Progress Tracker)
- Method works on 6
overarching questions reflect
multiple dimensions of
climate adaptation & context-
specificities
- ‘‘Beyond only indicators’’:
expert judgment approach
using a scoring system
(gathers multiple sources of
information) Literature (scientific, grey), policy documents, accumulated
human experience (expert’s own knowledge)

6. GAP-Track (Global Adapta
ti
on Progress Tracker)
0
2
1 2 3 4
Mauritius island
1.1.
Climate
hazards
1.2.
Natural
drivers
E&V 1.3.
Human
drivers
E&V
1.4.
Future
climate
risks
2.1.
Adaptation
plans
2.2.
Implementation
plans
2.3.
Contrib.
non-state actors
3.1.
Hazard-oriented
actions
3.2.
Natural
E&V-oriented
actions
3.3.
Human
E&V-oriented
actions
4.1.
Governance
arrangements
4.2.
Expertise
and technical
capacities
4.3.
Specific
& sustainable
funding
5.3.
Societal
awareness
6.3.
Sequencing
over time
6.2.
Synerg./trade-offs
across actions
6.1.
Adaptation
goals
5.1.
Evidence
of risk
reduction
5.2.
Minimized
risk of
maladaptation
1. KNOWLEDGE ON CURRENT
AND FUTURE CLIMATE RISK
2. PLANS IN PLACE AND
IMPLEMENTED
3. ADEQUATE
ACTIONS IN PLACE
4. INSTITUTIONAL, TECHNICAL
& FINANCIAL CAPACITIES
5. EVIDENCE ON ACTUAL
CLIMATE RISK REDUCTION
6. PATHWAY-LIKE
APPROACH
6.
PATHWAYS
1.
CLIMATE
RISK
2.
PLANS
3.
ACTIONS
4.
CAPACITIES
5.
RISK
REDUCTION
FIGURE 3. Detailed results for Mauritius.
In the process of running a test to:
- On 1 global system (coastal adaptation)
- Demonstrate the feasibility of the tool
- And relevance of the results to
complement other, country- and
indicator-based approaches
- By GST#1

7. So, in the end…
So that’s worth having mul
ti
ple approaches moving in
parallel (and coming together ahead of GST#1)
And others…
Without a clear understanding of where do we stand on adapta
ti
on globally,
the GST will likely not be a success…
Such informa
ti
on can be decisive to enhance collec
ti
ve ac
ti
on towards
‘‘More of Be
tt
er’’ (i.e. more e
ff
ec
ti
ve adapta
ti
on globally)
- Feed the GGA discussions (towards more speci
fi
c, system-level priori
ti
es?)
- Help direc
ti
ng support (
fi
nance, technology, capaci
ti
es) more
e
ffi
ciently and thus support on-going discussions (e.g. on L&D)
- Enhance consistency across scales on how to think adapta
ti
on (will
make bi-/mul
ti
-lateral and global coopera
ti
on easier + will help future GSTs)