The document outlines a project examining the strategic application of information and communication technologies (ICTs) to climate change adaptation in Africa. It discusses the global landscape of ICTs and climate change adaptation, then focuses on Africa, analyzing climate impacts and the potential role of ICTs to help countries adapt. Case studies from Senegal, Uganda, and Malawi explore early applications of ICTs in knowledge sharing, agriculture, and water management respectively.

1. Transformation-Ready: The Strategic Application of Information and Communication Technologies to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (eTransform Africa) Ben Akoh June 26-28, 2011

2. Outline Project Outlay Global Scan of ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation Landscape Analysis and Climate Change Adaptation in Africa Some Early Research Findings in Senegal, Uganda and Malawi Methodology Some preliminary findings The Framework Global Scan of ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation Landscape Analysis and Climate Change Adaptation in Africa Country Case Studies

3. Part 1: Global Scan of ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation The Changing Climate Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity A taxonomy for Adaptation to Climate Change Relationship between ICTS and Climate Change ICTs and Adaptation ICT tools relevant/Applicable to Climate Change Adaptation A Useful framework for examining ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation

4. Part 2: Landscape Analysis and Climate Change Adaptation in Africa Climate Change in Africa Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa The African ICT Environment ICTs in Senegal, Uganda and Malawi Implications for Considering ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation

5. Part 3: Some Early Research Findings in Senegal, Uganda and Malawi Senegal: AfricaAdapt – Knowledge Management and Information Sharing for Climate Change Adaptation Uganda: ICTs and Adaptation to Climate Change in Crop Production Malawi: ICTs, Climate Change and Water Management

6. Methodology Data sources: The Banks’own knowledge of ICTs and adaptation (African Development Bank; InfoDev). IISD’s current work in the area of adaptation, including: an on-going review of current and planned adaptation action in Africa, Asia-Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean. Concentrated literature review on ICTs and adaptation. Consultations with selected international organizations active in adaptation (IDS; DFID; IDRC; others): between 10 and 20 short email exchanges and phone/Skype interviews Consultations with IISD partners on the ground in Africa: up to 20 short email exchanges and phone/Skype interviews. A crowd sourcing/online survey of adaptation practitioners on global, continental and national level adaptation action

7. Methodology National Level Intervention Senegal Interviews with actors, policy makers, government officials, local NGOs, International Organizations in the field of CCA (UNDP, AfricaAdapt, UNECA) Building on IISD’s existing and ongoing inquiry and stocktaking of web-based knowledge platforms for the integration of climate change adaptation into development policy-making and planning

8. Methodology National Level Intervention Uganda Interviews with actors, policy makers, government officials, local NGOs, International Organizations in the field of CCA (UNDP) Build on IISDs work with UNDP in prioritizing climate risk management options for sustainable crop production in rural districts in Uganda Participatory Scenarios Process involving all actors Malawi Interviews with actors, policy makers, government officials, local NGOs, International Organizations in the field of CCA (DFID, Universities) Focus group event with key experts in the field

9. A few but important emerging points and issues A framework for examining ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation The broad range of ICTs in the Climate Change Adaptation Field. The absence of ICTs in most NAPAs.

10. The Framework Emerged from a Juxtaposing of A taxonomy for Adaptation to Climate Change (IPCC) Addressing the drivers of Vulnerability Building Adaptive Capacity of local and regional systems Reducing and managing risks related to Climate Variability and Change Confronting climate change A review of ICT Applications with Relevance to Climate Change Adaptation Large to small scale ICT implementations Early warning systems/Weather management/MET Smart Systems/Sensor Networks Geographic Information/Global Positioning systems Knowledge Management and Information Sharing

11. A useful Framework for examining ICTs and CCA

12. A few but important emerging points and issues A framework for examining ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation The broad range of ICTs in the Climate Change Adaptation Field. The absence of ICTs in most NAPAs. These findings indicate a disconnect between policy and practice and that the implementation of technology to address CCA must take on a more proactive approach than what presently exists.

13. The changing climate Rising temperatures: 11 of 12 warmest in last 12 years since record keeping began in 1850 Rising sea levels: 17cm total global rise Melting ice caps: 2.7 percent shrinkage annually in arctic sea since 1978. Increased precipitation: More frequent floods and cyclones in the past 30 years. Increased precipitations from 1900 – 2005. Part 1: Global Scan of ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation

14. ICTs contributions: Effects of ICTs on CC Contributions of between 2 to 2.5% of total carbon emissions Increasing in a compounded annual growth rate of approx.. 6%, the fastest of any industrial sector Proportions of GHG emissions estimates will rise from 17% (0.53 gigatones of Co2 in 2002) to 27% (1.43 gigatones in 2020) – GeSI. Growth as a result of increased access to ICTs will have more (emissions based) impacts on the developing world. Part 1: Global Scan of ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation

15. Potential future s global emission scenarios (Nakicenovic et al, 2000) A1: Future world of rapid economic growth, plateaued and declining global population, and introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Emphasis on fossil-fuels, all energy sources (renewables and non-renewables). A2: Emergence of a heterogeneous world, fragmented economic growth and technological changes, continuously increasing global populations. B1: Same as A1 but with rapid changes in econmic structure towards service and information economy, introduction of clean and efficient resource-efficient technologies, emphasis on global solutions for economic, social and environmental sustainability. B2: Emphasis on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability. Continuously increasing population at a rate lower than A2, more diverse technological changes than in B1 and A1. Part 1: Global Scan of ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation

16. Potential significant climatic changes with ecological, economic and social impact to take place during the century with various degrees of probability (IPCC): Virtually certain (over 99% probability): Increase yields in colder environments; relying on snow melts; reduced energy demand for heating, increased demand for cooling, declining air quality in cities. Very likely (over 90% probability): Reduced yield in warmer regions, increased danger of wildfire, increased heat related mortality, reduction in quality of life. Likely (over 66% probability): Damage to crops and soil erosions, inability to cultivate land due to waterlogging, disruptions of settlements due to flooding, intense tropical cyclones, Part 1: Global Scan of ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation

17. Severity of impacts will depend on effectiveness of GHGs mitigations efforts at global level Overall development of present and future pathways Including vulnerability to stresses and availability of capacities to adapt Effectiveness of specific adaptation actions focusing on reducing impacts Recent cost estimates suggests that “that even with considerable mitigation efforts at the global level the cost between 2010 and 2050 of adapting to an approximately 2 o C warmer world by 2050 is in the range of $70 billion to $100 billion a year ” (World Bank). Equivalent to annual foreign aid from developed to developing countries. Part 1: Global Scan of ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation

18. Vulnerability, Adaptive Capacity (Some facts) Climate change will impact everyone Those in greater poverty are at greater risks from climate change impacts, and at a greater risks of being adversely affected at an earlier stage Poverty and development status are crucial determinants of access to entitlements and resources and directly shapes vulnerability to risks (Eriksen and O’Brien, 2009) Definitions Vulnerability to climate change: the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Adaptation to climate change: [an] adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities Adaptive capacity depends on access to resources that could help in responding to threats and exposures. Resilience: A systems ability to bounce back to a reference state after a disturbance Part 1: Global Scan of ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation

19. Adaptation to Climate Change involves A broad range of measures directed to a range of climatic stimuli Adaptation planning shares common features with risk management It is a collaborative process involving all stakeholders It is no substitute for mitigation of climate change Should be addressed as a proactive measure Intimately connected with sustainable development and to resilience Requires an integrated approach and a long term continual process involving all sectors of society Part 1: Global Scan of ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation

20. In developing responses to climate change we distinguish between: Addressing the drivers of vulnerability by reducing major underlying causes of vulnerability Building adaptive capacity of local and regional systems and communities Reducing and managing risks related to climate variability and climate change, e.g. by increasing awareness and knowledge of stakeholders Confronting climate change by taking actions which respond exclusively to impacts known to be cause by climate change. This responses led to the emergence of the taxonomy or framework for examining climate change adaption and ICTs presented earlier. Part 1: Global Scan of ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation

21. Relationships between ICTs and Climate Change Direct or first order effects – the directs impacts of ICTs to climate change – eg. Carbon emissions and use and disposal of ICT equipment and services Indirect or second order effects – the indirect impacts of ICTs that result from other industrial sectors or from the behaviours of end-users. Rebound effects – the elimination of gains resulting from apparent reduction in emissions, e.g. increased power consumption resulting from lower energy prices obtained through greater energy efficiency Societal or third order effects – resulting from large scale social and economic behaviour resulting from widespread and increased use of ICTs. Part 1: Global Scan of ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation

22. Facts about ICTs and Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa Fairly low references to ICTs are mentioned in National Adaptation Programme of Actions (NAPAs) of most countries In cases where ICTs are mentioned, they focus on: Creating climate change projections and databases of climatic data Developing and revising early warning systems Creating monitoring systems for water quality, health and diseases Developing capacity-building and awareness raising applications including information-sharing of climate date. Part 1: Global Scan of ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation

23. Part 2: Landscape Analysis and Climate Change Adaptation in Africa Implementations of regional projects with ICT components in Africa are at the following levels: National Regional Continental

24. Part 2: Landscape Analysis and Climate Change Adaptation in Africa: National

25. Part 2: Landscape Analysis and Climate Change Adaptation in Africa : National

26. Part 2: Landscape Analysis and Climate Change Adaptation in Africa : National

27. Part 2: Landscape Analysis and Climate Change Adaptation in Africa : National

28. Part 2: Landscape Analysis and Climate Change Adaptation in Africa : Regional

29. Part 2: Landscape Analysis and Climate Change Adaptation in Africa : Regional

30. The African ICT Environment Large growth in the mobile sector SSA: 88million , 12.3/100 in 2000 to 333million, 41.4/100 in 2010. Almost 1 subscription per adult Almost 100% network geographical coverage by 2015 – ITU Mobile networks will provide the principal communication medium in Africa. Backbone and backhaul infrastructure is shifting from wireless to fibre optic technology Mobiles will become the device of choice for internet access. 98% of internet subscriptions in Kenya are mobile internet subscriptions Broadband (fixed and mobile) is important for large scale interventions including application to climate change. However, broadband access is yet to match the pace in other regions – 4% density in Africa compared to 70% in Europe (mobile and fixed) in 2010 - ITU

31. The African ICT Environment Uganda Liberalised telecom sector. Strong competition Small and dense country hence almost 100% mobile coverage. Low teledensities – 32.8% (2009) 70% mobile connections in urban areas in a predominantly rural country Lack of affordable last mile access to rural areas Landlocked country – proactively accessing fibre through Kenya. Senegal Higher subscription rates than Uganda and across Africa – 68.5% in 2011 Liberalised sector but Orange (former Sonatel) has majority market share (60%) Better broadband implementation and more affordable pricing. Mobile devices offer greater confidence for use in Senegal than Uganda Regulatory challenges still exist. ARTP still dependent on government. Should implement more effective price regulation across the board

32. The African ICT Environment Malawi Less advance telecom sector than Senegal and Uganda Mobile subscription at 24% Mobile tariffs much higher. High cost of international bandwidth imply higher broadband pricing Transit negotiations ongoing. Might reduce international bandwidth, internet prices and enable greater use of broadband

33. The African ICT Environment Implications for Climate Change Adaptation Can be used for information dissemination for short term alarms such as flood warnings, guidance and to help people change behaviour or reduce vulnerability Can extend the potential for monitoring environmental risks and impacts Technical – Unattended remote monitoring by static devices, e.g. meteorological Human – Through crowdsourcing, monitoring of changing circumstances Adaptation Action based on information received Enable people to communicate and coordinate better

34. Country Case Studies Senegal. AfricaAdapt Independent bilingual network launched in 2009 focused exclusively on Africa Aim to facilitate the flow of CCA knowledge and sustainable livelihoods between researchers, policy makers, CSOs and communities vulnerable to climate variability Network is supported by a website listing face to face events allowing people to profile self and their adaptation actions Offers incentives to members to publish and develop specific adaptation projects from small grants Have ran 2 call for proposals. Received 500 responses from countries for $6.5 to 10K. Funded only 10. Places important emphasis on Indigenous knowledge and Adaptation (Banks may want to focus future research in this area – ICTs, IK and Adaptation).

35. Country Case Studies Senegal. AfricaAdapt Challenges: Harmonizing a few other knowledge sharing platforms that currently exists. Wealth of case studies exists in platform. However still lacks in attempts to fit this knowledge into typical adaptation planning steps and project cycles. Web based platforms invariable target a small subsector of the African Society. Cross platform communication mechanisms between prevalent broadcast and communications technology may be required.

36. Country Case Studies Uganda: Adaptation in Crop Production Limited research in understanding present and future potential impacts of climate risk in crop production for maize, beans and coffee. Project explores ICT use to support information sharing between key stakeholders to enhance adaptation action, and for environmental management such as irrigation, water flows and GIS for more efficient crop placement. Challenges Managing and communicating CCA information flows 9e.g changes in rainfall and temperature) from govt to people lack support. Broadcast technology still holds promise. And Human interface (community facilitators) significant as intermediary for disseminating information and knowledge

37. Country Case Studies Malawi: Water Management and ICTs Existing projects using ICTs to research/create water balance model for Lake Malawi Use of wireless sensor networs to develop and implement self sustained, low cost online water quality monitoring system in sewage treatment works. More analysis following country focus group event next week.

38. Thank You Ben Akoh, Project Manager, IISD [email_address]