Mobile-driven intelligence infrastructure is more developed than transportation infrastructure in most developing Asian countries. Entrepreneurs are using smartphones to retrofit intelligence onto existing transportation modes like motorcycle taxis to make them more efficient and demand-responsive. Early case studies show this approach has potential for unexpected impacts by improving transportation vehicles, attracting new investments, and producing valuable customer data. However, questions remain about how to accelerate this experimentation and whether current applications are sustainable and scalable enough to provide real alternatives to private car use.
Ride Sharing, Congestion, and the Need for Real SharingJeffrey Funk
Current ride sharing services are not financially sustainable. Although they provide more convenience than do taxi services, they are experiencing massive losses because they have the same cost structure as do taxis and thus must compete through subsidies and lower wages. After all, they use the same vehicles, roads, and drivers, and only GPS algorithms and phones are new.
They also increase congestion. Just as more private vehicles or taxis on the road will increase congestion, more ride sharing vehicles also increase congestion.
These slides describe new ways to use the technologies of ride sharing to reduce congestion along with costs while at the same time keeping travel time low. This can be done through changing public transportation systems or allowing private companies to offer competing services. For instance, current bus services, whether they are private or public, need to use the algorithms, GPS, phones and other technologies of ride sharing to revise routes, schedules and the premises that currently underpin public transportation. There is no reason a bus should be certain size, stop every 200 meters, or follow the same route all day. Algorithms and phones enable new types of routes in which designers simultaneously minimize time travel and maximize number of passengers transported per vehicle.hour.
Ride Sharing, Congestion, and the Need for Real SharingJeffrey Funk
Current ride sharing services are not financially sustainable. Although they provide more convenience than do taxi services, they are experiencing massive losses because they have the same cost structure as do taxis and thus must compete through subsidies and lower wages. After all, they use the same vehicles, roads, and drivers, and only GPS algorithms and phones are new.
They also increase congestion. Just as more private vehicles or taxis on the road will increase congestion, more ride sharing vehicles also increase congestion.
These slides describe new ways to use the technologies of ride sharing to reduce congestion along with costs while at the same time keeping travel time low. This can be done through changing public transportation systems or allowing private companies to offer competing services. For instance, current bus services, whether they are private or public, need to use the algorithms, GPS, phones and other technologies of ride sharing to revise routes, schedules and the premises that currently underpin public transportation. There is no reason a bus should be certain size, stop every 200 meters, or follow the same route all day. Algorithms and phones enable new types of routes in which designers simultaneously minimize time travel and maximize number of passengers transported per vehicle.hour.
This report looks at the disruptive potential of automated vehicles: their impact on commuters, car companies, vehicle design and urban planning. It warns of the potential dangers of their unbridled proliferation and prerequisites to their effective deployment.
Multiple Passenger Ride Sharing Changes Economics of CommutingJeffrey Funk
While Uber has challenged taxi drivers, multiple passenger ride sharing service can give us the both of best worlds: short travel times and low prices. They can provide the low prices of public transport with the short travel times of private cars or single passenger taxis. Different than Uber Pool or other crowd sourcing services, the key is for the startup to guarantee both short travel times and low prices, even if demand does not initially exist. This can be be done by having better data on the starting and ending points of travelers, which enables us to identify high demand routes and times and thus enable services that have few stops. The fewer stops enable short transit times and the multiple passengers in cars, vans, or mini-buses can reduce costs.
Disruptive Innovation & The Roadless Economy in New ZealandArturo Pelayo
This is the slide deck presented at the joint event by ARIA Logistics (presented by co-Founder Arturo Pelayo) and The Innovation Liberation Front in Auckland, New Zealand.
For updates on upcoming events and workshops, please follow @arialogistics on twitter, our website blog and facebook page.
Future of autonomous vehicles interim report summary - 29 august 2019-compr...Future Agenda
The Future of Autonomous Vehicles
Throughout 2019 we are undertaking a series of expert workshops around the world exploring the future of autonomous vehicles. To date 5 discussions have taken place in Los Angeles, Frankfurt, Singapore, Wellington and Melbourne.
This is the summary of a detailed interim report which is being shared from September 8th on www.futureautonomous.org
Additional events are taking place during Q4 of 2019 ahead of the release of a final report.
Presented at Communication World, Munich
- Intelligent networking of different means of transportation play a central role.
- Mobile devices are growing strongly - in number as well as functionality, to provide the opportunity for new business models
- Companies need to develop a mobile strategy and address the new challenges on a broad basis
By Andreas Hein
Autonomous Driving (AD) has been said to be the next big disruptive innovation in the years to come. Considered as being predominantly technology driven, it is supposed to have massive societal impact in areas such as insurance, laws and regulations, logistics, automotive industry as well as all types of transportation methods, not only expected to have an enormous environmental and economic effect but also offer the possibility of saving millions of lives worldwide.
HYVE Science Labs, in cooperation with the Technical University Hamburg-Harburg and INSIUS have developed the unique worldwide study “Autonomous Driving: The User Perspective” focused on the customer view and acceptance of Autonomous Driving. The study analyses 106,305 comments on Autonomous Driving publicly posted in English on the Internet, finding a more positive than negative attitude towards this new technology in contrast to the most renowned surveys in the field. The focus was placed in the understanding of customer acceptance, a topic that until now under an Autonomous Driving context is limited. While a survey with more than 200 experts on autonomous vehicles by the IEEE (2014), the world's largest professional association for the advancement of technology, defines that the three biggest obstacles to reach the mass adoption of driverless cars are legal liability, policymakers and customer acceptance. Therefore it is essential to start understanding and integrating customers in order to build deep and meaningful customer insights which can be used to deliver the products they want and need. Furthermore it is important to understand the wants and needs of future users and who will the early adopters will be. They will influence how technologies evolve and if they provide enough benefits to reach the early majority.
Innovative Web Monitoring Technologies, User Generated Content (UGC) and the method of Innovation Mining were used within an Autonomous Driving context to understand user’s debate on the Internet. UGC is characterized by extensive volunteering effort, lack of central control and freedom of expression, while creating a basis for identifying and understanding opinions, desires, tastes, needs and decision-making influences of customers in a passive non-intrusive manner. UGC is perceived as being impartial and unbiased, while giving the chance to understand needs and doubts of the potential customers, as well as the used language within a certain topic. The method of Innovation Mining presented below reflects the process from the search for the UGC until the possible visualization and interpretation of the gained information.
• Analysis of the users language within an AD context
• Most relevant single sources of discussion
• Topic evolution including most impactful events
• Brand importance in the users perspective
• Most mentioned activities in an AD vehicle
• In depth language analysis of concepts and their drivers
Autonomous vehicles constitute a technological revolution, taking urban mobility to a new level. Used to supplement traditional
transport modes, autonomous vehicles offer a mobility solution that is accessible, environmentally friendly, flexible and cost-efficient.
Keolis has pioneered the first successful trials of driverless vehicles for public transport and is focused on the seamless integration of autonomous mobility into existing transport networks.
Future of autonomous vehicles initial perspective - 8 october 2018Future Agenda
Future of Autonomous Vehicles
With so much investment and tech development underway, many are asking where, how and when will we see self-driving cars, buses and trucks on the streets in earnest? A host of companies, cities and countries are competing and collaborating to move things forward – but is could be a decade or so before there is mass market traction. In addition, what about seaborne AV as well as drones, air-taxis and, maybe, pilotless planes?
Ahead of the launch of a detailed initial perspective in Shanghai in November this is a summary of 30 of the key issues that experts have already raised. As part of a major global open foresight programme we will be running 15 events around the world in the first half of 2019 exploring these and additional issues – building an informed, global view for all.
We have many key locations already defined, but if you are interested in hosting or co-hosting one of these events, do let us know and we can include as we work on the overall schedule. As with all our projects (e.g. www.futureofpatientdata.org) we will share all insights from each location and publish a global synthesis.
For more details contact tim.jones@futureagenda.org
There are great expectations around the future of autonomous vehicles (AVs) and equally much uncertainty. Some believe that AVs will transform safety and efficiency and are making significant investments in this area. Others are concerned that the technological developments are outpacing society’s ability to adapt, and there is an urgent requirement to develop better regulation before there is widespread deployment. A global Open Foresight project exploring the key issues for the future of AVs is being undertaken by Future Agenda. Expert workshops around the world are building the informed view.
This project was kicked-off with a global review of the emerging landscape for autonomous vehicles. As well looking at the historical context for self-driving cars and trucks, this initial perspective explores the benefits of AVs; different issues for the movement of people vs. goods; the three primary drivers of adoption and the primary centres for innovation. It also includes commentary on the parallel developments in seaborne and air-based autonomous vehicles. It ends with some of the key questions to be explored by the project.
This report looks at the disruptive potential of automated vehicles: their impact on commuters, car companies, vehicle design and urban planning. It warns of the potential dangers of their unbridled proliferation and prerequisites to their effective deployment.
Multiple Passenger Ride Sharing Changes Economics of CommutingJeffrey Funk
While Uber has challenged taxi drivers, multiple passenger ride sharing service can give us the both of best worlds: short travel times and low prices. They can provide the low prices of public transport with the short travel times of private cars or single passenger taxis. Different than Uber Pool or other crowd sourcing services, the key is for the startup to guarantee both short travel times and low prices, even if demand does not initially exist. This can be be done by having better data on the starting and ending points of travelers, which enables us to identify high demand routes and times and thus enable services that have few stops. The fewer stops enable short transit times and the multiple passengers in cars, vans, or mini-buses can reduce costs.
Disruptive Innovation & The Roadless Economy in New ZealandArturo Pelayo
This is the slide deck presented at the joint event by ARIA Logistics (presented by co-Founder Arturo Pelayo) and The Innovation Liberation Front in Auckland, New Zealand.
For updates on upcoming events and workshops, please follow @arialogistics on twitter, our website blog and facebook page.
Future of autonomous vehicles interim report summary - 29 august 2019-compr...Future Agenda
The Future of Autonomous Vehicles
Throughout 2019 we are undertaking a series of expert workshops around the world exploring the future of autonomous vehicles. To date 5 discussions have taken place in Los Angeles, Frankfurt, Singapore, Wellington and Melbourne.
This is the summary of a detailed interim report which is being shared from September 8th on www.futureautonomous.org
Additional events are taking place during Q4 of 2019 ahead of the release of a final report.
Presented at Communication World, Munich
- Intelligent networking of different means of transportation play a central role.
- Mobile devices are growing strongly - in number as well as functionality, to provide the opportunity for new business models
- Companies need to develop a mobile strategy and address the new challenges on a broad basis
By Andreas Hein
Autonomous Driving (AD) has been said to be the next big disruptive innovation in the years to come. Considered as being predominantly technology driven, it is supposed to have massive societal impact in areas such as insurance, laws and regulations, logistics, automotive industry as well as all types of transportation methods, not only expected to have an enormous environmental and economic effect but also offer the possibility of saving millions of lives worldwide.
HYVE Science Labs, in cooperation with the Technical University Hamburg-Harburg and INSIUS have developed the unique worldwide study “Autonomous Driving: The User Perspective” focused on the customer view and acceptance of Autonomous Driving. The study analyses 106,305 comments on Autonomous Driving publicly posted in English on the Internet, finding a more positive than negative attitude towards this new technology in contrast to the most renowned surveys in the field. The focus was placed in the understanding of customer acceptance, a topic that until now under an Autonomous Driving context is limited. While a survey with more than 200 experts on autonomous vehicles by the IEEE (2014), the world's largest professional association for the advancement of technology, defines that the three biggest obstacles to reach the mass adoption of driverless cars are legal liability, policymakers and customer acceptance. Therefore it is essential to start understanding and integrating customers in order to build deep and meaningful customer insights which can be used to deliver the products they want and need. Furthermore it is important to understand the wants and needs of future users and who will the early adopters will be. They will influence how technologies evolve and if they provide enough benefits to reach the early majority.
Innovative Web Monitoring Technologies, User Generated Content (UGC) and the method of Innovation Mining were used within an Autonomous Driving context to understand user’s debate on the Internet. UGC is characterized by extensive volunteering effort, lack of central control and freedom of expression, while creating a basis for identifying and understanding opinions, desires, tastes, needs and decision-making influences of customers in a passive non-intrusive manner. UGC is perceived as being impartial and unbiased, while giving the chance to understand needs and doubts of the potential customers, as well as the used language within a certain topic. The method of Innovation Mining presented below reflects the process from the search for the UGC until the possible visualization and interpretation of the gained information.
• Analysis of the users language within an AD context
• Most relevant single sources of discussion
• Topic evolution including most impactful events
• Brand importance in the users perspective
• Most mentioned activities in an AD vehicle
• In depth language analysis of concepts and their drivers
Autonomous vehicles constitute a technological revolution, taking urban mobility to a new level. Used to supplement traditional
transport modes, autonomous vehicles offer a mobility solution that is accessible, environmentally friendly, flexible and cost-efficient.
Keolis has pioneered the first successful trials of driverless vehicles for public transport and is focused on the seamless integration of autonomous mobility into existing transport networks.
Future of autonomous vehicles initial perspective - 8 october 2018Future Agenda
Future of Autonomous Vehicles
With so much investment and tech development underway, many are asking where, how and when will we see self-driving cars, buses and trucks on the streets in earnest? A host of companies, cities and countries are competing and collaborating to move things forward – but is could be a decade or so before there is mass market traction. In addition, what about seaborne AV as well as drones, air-taxis and, maybe, pilotless planes?
Ahead of the launch of a detailed initial perspective in Shanghai in November this is a summary of 30 of the key issues that experts have already raised. As part of a major global open foresight programme we will be running 15 events around the world in the first half of 2019 exploring these and additional issues – building an informed, global view for all.
We have many key locations already defined, but if you are interested in hosting or co-hosting one of these events, do let us know and we can include as we work on the overall schedule. As with all our projects (e.g. www.futureofpatientdata.org) we will share all insights from each location and publish a global synthesis.
For more details contact tim.jones@futureagenda.org
There are great expectations around the future of autonomous vehicles (AVs) and equally much uncertainty. Some believe that AVs will transform safety and efficiency and are making significant investments in this area. Others are concerned that the technological developments are outpacing society’s ability to adapt, and there is an urgent requirement to develop better regulation before there is widespread deployment. A global Open Foresight project exploring the key issues for the future of AVs is being undertaken by Future Agenda. Expert workshops around the world are building the informed view.
This project was kicked-off with a global review of the emerging landscape for autonomous vehicles. As well looking at the historical context for self-driving cars and trucks, this initial perspective explores the benefits of AVs; different issues for the movement of people vs. goods; the three primary drivers of adoption and the primary centres for innovation. It also includes commentary on the parallel developments in seaborne and air-based autonomous vehicles. It ends with some of the key questions to be explored by the project.
This technology brief was produced by Ricardo-AEA for the IEA.
ETSAP E-TechDS is an Energy Technology Data Source that offers consistent sets of data on energy demand and supply technologies to help analysts to build their own MARKAL-TIMES model. To put data in the right context, E-TechDS is conceived as a series of Technology Briefs, which provide basic information on process, status, performance, costs, potential and barriers for key energy technology clusters. Each brief consists of typically 5 to 10 pages including Highlights, full text and charts, and a summary data table.
The ETSAP Briefs are intended to offer essential, reliable and quantitative information to energy analysts, experts, policymakers, investors and media from both developed and developing countries.
Bike Sharing for Multi-modal Transit - oBikeIan Goh
The first/last-mile problem – that is getting to and from public transit stations – is a major obstacle to use of public transit and the uptake of multi-modal transit paradigm. Bike sharing initiatives can help address this issue.
Autonomous cars self-driving cars-driverless cars market 2020 to 2030Chandan Chaudhary
The Autonomous cars/Self-Driving Cars/Driverless Cars Market report offers a deep analysis of the Market Research Industry. It demonstrates a rapid summary of industry data and a key catalog of the market. The report highlights well-known performers from the Autonomous cars/Self-Driving Cars/Driverless Cars Market beside contribution to the market vocation progress within the estimated time. KACSK Market Research Report covers recent improvements while predicting the expansion of the players of the market.
Below is the detailed list of some of the major investments in the run of driverless technology
1. Ford $1 billion investment in Argo AI
2. Toyota Research Institute $1 billion
3. Uber purchased Otto for $680 million
4. GM acquired CRUZE AUTOMATION for $580 million
5. Intel to buy Mobileye for $15.3 billion
6. GM invests $500 million in LYFT- drive sharing startup
7. VOLVO and Uber $300 million JV
8. Hyundai $1.7 billion R & D
9. Intel $250 million in driverless AI tech.
Presentation by Stelios Rodoulis, of Jacobs Consulting, to a postgraduate audience at the Institute for Transport studies (ITS), University of Leeds UK. October 2015.
www.linkedin.com/in/rodoulis
www.its.leeds.ac.uk/courses/masters/programme-structure/#tabs-4
Improvements in information technology related technologies are encouraging and enabling greater use of public transportation and they are enabling new forms of transportation systems that have lower carbon emissions and use less resources. Improvements in information-related technologies such as mobile phones and GPS encourage greater use of public buses, bicycle sharing systems, and trains. These same improvements are making autonomous vehicles economically feasible and roads dedicated to them. Roads dedicated to them can reduce congestion, increase fuel efficiency, and reduce accidents and costs related to them. In combination with public transportation, autonomous vehicles can reduce the need for private vehicles and thus parking spaces. Similar types of improvements in power electronics are reducing the cost and improving the performance of charging stations and thus enable more rapid recharging with a denser number of charging stations. This rapid and more frequent recharging can overcome the existing bottleneck of lower battery storage densities and slow improvements in these storage densities. Overall, improvements in information technology are making possible new forms of sustainable systems that have a much higher chance of becoming economically feasible than more commonly discussed solutions such as hybrid vehicles and wind turbines.
Global Challenge Porjct Report -Coursework of University of Bristol ssusera0a3b6
Group work in MSc Engineering Management, University of Bristol. This report proposes optimized solutions to the challenges of commuter transport in cities in developing countries to promote a low-carbon transformation.
E-mobility trends in India: Challenges and OpportunitiesIET India
India is the 4th largest automotive industry in the world and is rapidly adopting connectivity and other advanced technologies in the mobility segment. The recent approval from the Government of India for the second phase of the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric vehicles (FAME 2) is a clear signal of the country’s positive intent in striding towards green mobility.
IET’s Future of Mobility and Transport Panel has brought together experts from the e-mobility industry in India to discuss the technological trends in the e-mobility space and ways of optimising e-mobility use for everyday life. This document gives a brief summary of the discussions that shed light on the progress of e-mobility in India, pressing challenges that lie ahead and the way forward for e-mobility in the country. Experts also discussed the technology driven trends faced by the Indian market and how these will impact mobility behaviour in India.
At Finpro's ITS and MaaS seminar on May 4, Martyn Briggs from Frost & Sullivan discussed the converging trends that are leading to shift away from private cars, the new mobility business models that are becoming well established, and the potential impacts these services can realise in our cities now and in the future.
The new mobility ecosystem is rapidly expanding, with new technologies, infrastructure, providers, and modes of transport. How to integrate them all and keep everything on track? With a mobility operating system. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/focus/future-of-mobility/urban-transport-mobility-platforms.html
Role of digital india in enhancing transportationAr. Avitesh
(SMART AND SAFE SOLUTIONS FOR ACCIDENT-FREE INDIA)
Digital India is a programme to prepare India for a knowledge future. The focus of digital India is on making technology central to enabling change.
Road infrastructure solutions can play an important part in helping cities become safer, greener, and smarter. Governments throughout the world have initiated plans to deploy technologies for Smart
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At iomob we seek to transform urban mobility from its current fragmented state towards a decentralised internet of mobility marketplace. This white paper seeks to explore emerging trends and future directions towards more seamless access to public and private mobility services.
The presentation provides an overall view of the urban transportation market in India. The presentation provides glimpse of development in different cities. It also tries to highlight the growth of ITS and AFCS market and the strategy of three key global players for India. You may send your feedback on jaaaspal@yahoo.com.
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Can owning a cell phone replace the desire to use a car? Field research ed
1. Can owning a cell phone replace the desire to own a car? The emerging entrepreneurs who are mashing-up intelligence + transportation in developing Asia Albert Ching Masters of City Planning Candidate, 2012 Research Assistant, Future of Urban Mobility Singapore
2.
3. Mobile environment extremely competitive with some applications like mobile banking ahead of most developed contexts
4.
5.
6. Entrepreneurs themselves may not want free access to technology since it helps preserve their competitive advantage and off the shelf technology still needs to be localized
10. The private auto lock-in* death spiral (city-scale) City expands “Transport infrastructure in the next 5-10 years to support motorization will lock-in transport-related CO2 emission patterns for the coming 20-30 years in Asia”(ADB 2009) 2 Poor pedestrian walkways Investment in road infrastructure* 1 “The poor typically make 20-30% less trips and rely much more on non-motorised and public transport. The poor have a more limited range of destinations, being more focused on core destinations”(GTZ Sourcebook 2002) Public transport poor Gov’t with limited resources Low ridership Mass transit extremely costly, difficult to implement, and does not reduce congestion (Gakenheimer 2011) Poor with limited mobility Increases congestion “Transport-related CO2 emissions expected to increase 57% worldwide from 2005-30 . . . the majority of these will come from private vehicles”(ADB 2009) Middle- & upper-class purchase private 2- or 4-wheeler* Air pollution 3 Unsustainable levels of CO2 + GHGs
11. The private auto lock-in* death spiral (rational consumer) Cost per trip Quality of mobility(no. of trips, accessibility to destinations, comfort, convenience, productivity) Private auto 1 Private 2-wheeler In developing Asia where public transport and non-motorised options are poor, the quality of mobility increases significantly with access to private vehicles 2 Once consumers are locked-in, they may not perceive the effective increase in cost per trip “The costs of a single automobile journey are systematically underestimated because they are perceived primarily in terms of fuel costs” (UNEP 2009) Para-transit Bicycle Public transport Walk -ing Private 2-wheeler Bicycle Private auto Personal income Auto lock-in*
12. The private auto lock-in* death spiral (aspirational consumer) The demand for private car use is inelastic and in part a result of the billions of dollars spent by the automotive industry (Gardener and Abraham 2007)
13. Most cities in developing Asia still with low per capita incomes and motorization rates Sydney / Melbourne ($34K, 630) Car ownership income threshold Acharya & Morichi(2007) $5-$6,000 PPP Autos per 1000 people 2 Unrestrained motorization In previous studies, strongest determinant of car ownership rates was income levels Tokyo*($30K, 275) Kuala Lumpur($12K, 270) Seoul*($23K, 220) Bangkok($7K, ~200) Singapore ($43K, 150) Restrained motorization 1 3 Low motorization Beijing / Shanghai($7K, 80) Hong Kong($39K, 80) Jakarta($4K, 50) Manilla($3K, 30) Bangalore($3K, 12) Per capita income (2009 Fixed $PPP) Dhaka($1K, 2) Source: Barter (1999) updated with current statistics from Wikipedia / Gapminder *Income figures only available at country level; Motorization 2004 figures Significant car ownership aspiration (Source: AC Nielson)
14. . . . although lock-in may happen at lower motorization rates due to developing Asia’s higher densities Sydney / Melbourne (630, 20) Autos per 1000 people Do higher densities limit short-term motorization and/or eventually lead to lower density development? Tokyo*(275, 50) Kuala Lumpur(240, 8) Seoul*(220, 90) Bangkok(~200, 65) Singapore (150, 93) Auto lock-in line Beijing / Shanghai (80, 150) Hong Kong(80, 70) Jakarta(50, 100) Manilla(30, 78) Bangalore(12, 130) Low motorization cities all expected to increase urban populations by 10-90% Dhaka(2, 89) Urban density(Persons per hectare) Source: Acharya and Morichi (2005) updated with current statistics from Wikipedia / Gapminder *Motorization 2004 figures
15. Improve Auto-Substitutes 2 1 Manage private motorization Improve mobility of the ‘car and 2-wheeler-less’ Invest in new public/shared transport assets & infrastructure Make private vehicles more costly to drive Make private vehicles less attractive to drive A (+) Vehicle taxes (+) Congestion pricing(+) Fuel taxes (+) Parking fees (-) Domestic car industry (-) Income growth (+) Compact land use(+) Car pool lanes (+) Congestion* (+) Difficult drivingconditions *(+) Vehicle theft* (-) Sprawling land use (-) Road construction (-) Car commercials and billboards* Most ‘sustainable transport’ efforts focus on larger scale public transport investments under the “Avoid, Shift, Improve” framework (+) BRT (+) Metro (+) Pedestrian, bicycle, and cycle rickshaw lanes *Unintentional Restrict Car Use
16. Enter the mobile phone, the fastest growing, perhaps most value-adding product in human history Tracks and locates user travel demand in real-time 1 Enables productive use of travel time 3 Provides real-time travel supply information for users 2 Provides information on new destinations 4 Personalization Can become a new vehicle for travel payments 5
17. Mobile phone-driven intelligence infrastructure way ahead of transportation infrastructure in most developing Asian cities Not just mobile devices India boasts not just 860 million phones vs. 13 million cars but also the most competitive mobile phone market in the world. the world’s lowest telephony rates and a new 3G network 3.9x 4.9x 4.7x 35x 66x 201x
18. In developed contexts, an intelligence layer is creating new possibilities that may potentially deter private auto ownership 1 2 3 4 Makes existing shared modes more efficient and on-demand Creates sharing systems for private modes Increases the opportunity cost of driving Makes sharing and shared transport super cool! Intelligence can enlarge the circle of trust by managing user behavior as well as fleet logistics The best thing to happen to public transit is the invention of the smartphone Mobile apps are making transit more convenient, personalized and integrated with the community (In less dense environments) intelligence can more efficiently match real-time para-transit supply and demand Provides economic benefit to drivers Can provide accessibility to more disadvantaged populations (women, poor) Responsive environments like piano-playing staircases and social networking may help to create new, attractive experiences that can only happen in shared space Most Asian cultures based in dense environments already very familiar with sharing Smartphones expect to be pervasive in developing Asia in 3-5 years Productivity-conscious commuter Special occasion commuter Social commuter Time-sensitive commuter
19. Entrepreneurs in developing Asia are beginning to pilot ways to use mobile-driven intelligence to create sustainable profit from these transport efficiency gains Normal motorcycle taxi utilization rate = 30% Go-JEK, on-demand motorcycle taxi and goods delivery service in Jakarta, launched February 2011
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21. Improve Auto-Substitutes 2 1 Manage private motorization Improve mobility of the ‘car and 2-wheeler-less’ Invest in new public/shared transport assets & infrastructure Make private vehicles more costly to drive Improve existing transport user experience Make private vehicles less attractive to drive B A (+) Vehicle taxes (+) Congestion pricing(+) Fuel taxes (+) Parking fees (-) Domestic car industry (-) Income growth (+) Compact land use(+) Car pool lanes (+) Congestion* (+) Difficult drivingconditions *(+) Vehicle theft* (-) Sprawling land use (-) Road construction (-) Car commercials and billboards* Most ‘sustainable transport’ efforts focus on larger scale public transport investments under the “Avoid, Shift, Improve” framework (+) BRT (+) Metro (+) Pedestrian, bicycle, and cycle rickshaw lanes “In most developing cities, public/shared transport share is very high – maintaining those market shares is the first priority” - ChhaviDhinga, GTZ Mobile-driven intelligence may help serve the last mile in transport user adoption *Unintentional Restrict Car Use
22. 3 Key Questions To what extent is mobile-driven transport experimentation happening across developing Asia? Are current experiments sustainable and scalable (enough to provide real alternatives to private car use)? Are there impacts of these experiments that go beyond its intended design? 1 2 3
23. 1 To what extent is mobile-driven transport experimentation happening across developing Asia? Fazilka Delhi Dhaka Mumbai Bangkok Bengalaru Kuala Lumpur Singapore Field Visit Jakarta | summer 2011 field research
24. 2 3 C 4 5 1 1 2 Private vehicle-sharing Makes driving a car easier Shared Transport Social Fun Makes existing shared modes more efficient and on-demand Safety / Payments MobileProductivity On-DemandAuto Taxi Navigation Bus Arrival SINGAPORE Car Sharing DID NOT VISIT KUALA LUMPUR Congestion Tracking Fare-Tracking On-DemandMotor-cycle On-DemandAuto Taxi BANGKOK Bus Arrival Car Pooling On-DemandCycle Rickshaw On-DemandAuto Rickshaw JAKARTA Fare-Tracking / Safety Alerts Rail Arrival BicycleSharing DELHI/MUMBAI/BANGALORE/ FAZILKA VehicleSecurity Constellation of Experiments | August 2011 DHAKA
25. Factors that encourage experimentation Significant user transport problem Money | Commercial application Transport partnership SINGAPORE Technical expertise Entrepreneurial activity, low density, government regulations DID NOT VISIT KUALA LUMPUR BANGKOK JAKARTA DELHI/MUMBAI/BANGALORE/ FAZILKA Constellation of Experiments | August 2011 DHAKA
26. 2 Are current experiments sustainable and scalable(enough to provide real alternatives to private car use)? Bengalaru Fazilka Delhi Jakarta Kuala Lumpur Selected Case Studies
27. Entrepreneurs = Low-Cost Leapfrog Strategy 3 Significant impact beyond intended design How scalable are current experiments beyond the intended context? Are there unexpected (and unintended) benefits to the intelligent retrofit? Are these experiments happening in developing Asia? 1 A 2 = Economic and/or social value Local entrepreneurs + Are current experiments sustainable? Poor transport user experience 3 1 4 2 5
28. 2 Case Study 1. Fazilka Eco-Cabs Rickshaw drivers in Fazilka, 2011
29. Case Study 1. Fazilka Eco-Cabs Fazilka – Compact city of 100K in the northwest Indian province of Punjab, 10km from the Pakistan border, “where India begins” 1 km 50-60 rickshaw drivers + 1 chai wallah call center Launched in 2008 by NavdeepAsija, an IIT-Delhi PhD student and traffic safety expert and the Graduate Welfare Association of Fazilka 1 km Problem – Originally inspired as a way for entrepreneur’s mother to access the local market. A majority of younger population moving out of Fazilka towards larger urban hubs like Chandigarh and New Delhi. Solution – World’s first dial-a-rickshaw service. 500 independent cycle rickshaw drivers operating in Fazilka divided into 9 one sq km sectors and slowly incorporated into a more demand-responsive networked fleet. Users dial the local chai wallah in their zone when they require service and the first available rickshaw driver in the queue is dispatched. Waiting times usually under 10 minutes. Figure is illustrative; zone demarcations and call center location may not be exact Overview
42. Management of larger fleet including scaling technology to centralised call centers in bigger cities
43. Linguistic and political differences in state of Haryana(10k population) 3 3 1 Patiala (1.9M) 55 eco-cabs launched in 2011 Sangrur (80k) 20 eco-cabs launched India Express, a leading newspaper in Punjab publishes a front-page article on the Fazilka eco-cab experiment Scalability
44. Case Study 1. Fazilka Eco-Cabs Car-free zones 6 On-demand eco-cab Walking Cycling On-demand cycle rickshaw Cycle rickshaw 6 5 1 4 2 3 Leapfrog Impact
45. India is an ancient society. For many years, only few people had knowledge. It was blood by chance. The mobile phone is a godsend . . . [and]information can break the stranglehold of the ovarian lottery sealed in India’s old hierarchies and shackles. - Sachin Pilot, India Minister of Communications and Information Technology
46. Role of Cutting-Edge Technologies Technology has NOT been the panacea to solve user transport problems -- most observed innovation required has been incremental - the localization of existing technologies to a specific context Google CIO Douglas Merrill’s 3 Types of Innovation . . . but incremental innovation can have positive side effects beyond solving a specific user problem and may pave the way for more transformational innovations . . .
47. Next Steps . . . 1 How to and how fast to accelerate experimentation? Where is the next big opportunity to seed an intelligent retrofit of transport? Can this be in part developed externally in Singapore or at MIT? 2
48. Custom, One-Off Tech Development GPS, algorithmic optimization Radio broadcast Territory-based queuing Avg wait time range: 4-30 minutes Wait time range: 5-10 minutes User request geo-coded to a location – algorithm matches the closest, available taxi in the area based on GPS location; Taxi sends SMS or signal to confirm request Ex. Comfort Delgro User request broadcast to entire fleet over radio– first driver to respond takes the request Ex. Taxis in Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok User request called into locally-based chai wallah – first driver in fixed territory based queue takes the request Ex. Fazilka Eco-cabs
50. Acknowledgements Sponsor Singapore-MIT Alliance for Future Urban Mobility Principal AdvisorsChris Zegras, MIT Asst. Prof. of Urban Studies and Planning Paul Barter, NUS Asst. Prof. at LKY School of Public Policy Entrepreneurs NavdeepAsija, Fazilka Eco-Cabs RaveeAahluwalia, Patiala Eco-Cabs Sundara Raman, Ideophone Anenth Guru, Ideophone SandeepBhaskar, Ideophone SanjeevGarg, Delhi Cycles Atul Jain, Delhi Cycle HR Murali, Namma Cycle Anthony Tan, My Teksi Hooi Ling Tan, My Teksi NadiemMakarim, GO-Jek Arup Chakti, NITS Leading Thinkers ApiwatRatanwahara, Chulalongkorn University SorawitNarupiti, Chulalongkorn University Zia Wadud, BUET Charisma Chowdhury, BUET Moshahida Sultana, University of Dhaka GeetamTewari, IIT-Delhi AnvitaArora, IIT-Delhi Rajinder Ravi, cycle rickshaw expert Tri Tjahjono, Univesiti Indonesia JamillahMohamad, University of Malaya Advocates Debra Efroymson, Work for a Better Bangladesh MarufRahman, Work for a Better Bangladesh Akshay Mani, EMBARQ MadhavPai, EMBARQ ChhaviDhingra, GTZ-India Eric Zusman, IGES Yoga Adiwinarto, ITDP Indonesia RestitiSekartini, ITDP Indonesia Government AnisurRahman, Dhaka Transport and Coordination Board Rajendar Kumar, Indian Dept of Information Technology Anil Sethi, Mayor of Fazilka ProdyutDutt, ADB India Penny Lukito, BAPPENAS Indonesia FirdausAli, Jakarta Water Provision Industry RD Sharma, HI-BIRD Bicycles Comfort Cab Malaysia PornthipKonghun, Googlers Thailand GautamAnand, Google Singapore Rahul Desai, Google Singapore Evan Sidarto, Google Singapore James McClure, Google Singapore KapilGoswami, Google India
51. For the aspiring Asian, however, compared to a private automobile, the alternatives leave much to be desired Un-Marketed Perception that only poor people cycle in India