Technology and the quest for efficient and sustainable individual mobility wnevc 2019

The quest for efficient and sustainable
individual mobility will fundamentally
change the Automotive industry and
requires global cooperation
obility behaviour
utonomous driving tech
igital, connected live
lectric propulsion
1 JULY, 2019
BO'AO • HAINAN • CHINA
Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart, Senior Partner, Roland Berger GmbH • wolfgang.Bernhart@rolandberger.com

2Technology and the quest for efficient and sustainable individual mobility - WNEVC_2019.pptx
Despite significant progress in safety, little or no progress has been made
in other areas - today's individual mobility is neither efficient nor sustainable
…Inefficiencies and un-sustainability of current individual mobility
Source: ICCT; EPA; Eurostat; AARTI; Optisource; Statista; EuroMonitor; INRIX; WHO; TomTom; Expert Interviews; Desk research; Roland Berger Analysis
Where do we come from?

Four main trends change vehicle usage, and require all OEMs to change
vehicle technologies…
Mid-term expectationsProgress since 2017
Vehicle sales for shared mobility
expected to reach ~20% in US by 2025
vs. ~5% today
Ride-hailing firms scaling up fast,
OEMs trying to figure out their role in
mobility and merging activities
L41) autonomy as aMaaS expected to
become viable and achieve broader
application, starting 2020-2025
Rapid progress towards commercial
application of L41) autonomy but
challenges still looming
Penetration of connected cars expected
to reach 90% by 2025 – first vehicles
as open-innovation "software platforms
on wheels"
Digitalization and connectivity becoming
ubiquitous in vehicles, players in
traditional thinking still fail to monetize
its full potential
PHEV and BEV powertrains expected to
account for >10% globally / >20% in
EU by 2025
OEMs and suppliers continue to
invest, regulators apply pressure and
consumers become open to xEV
MADE trends
1) Level 4: Vehicles drive automatioally without driver intervention on certain roads and under defined environmental conditions
Source: Roland Berger
Mobility
The future of moving people
& goods
Mobility behaviour
Autonomous driving
Replacing drivers to improve
safety cost & efficiency
Autonomous driving
Digitalization
Vehicles as part of the AI-
empowered Internet-of-things
Digital, connected live
Hybrid or electric powertrains,
batteries, and electric actuation
Electric propulsion
Technology and changing behavior drive the future of mobility

… leading ultimately to a mobility ecosystem, where purpose-built, auto-
mated, modular, connected vehicles become part of a "System of Systems"
Characteristics of the "Mobility ecosystem in 2030 and beyond"

> High share
of electrified vehicles
(30%..>50% w/o ICE)
> 30%
share
in 2030

> High share
(30%..>50% w/o ICE)
SMART CITY
> AI-based optimization
of "super-systems"
(e.g. traffic flow plus grid load)

> High share
(30%..>50% w/o ICE)
SMART GRID
of "super-systems"

> High share
(30%..>50% w/o ICE)
SMART DELIVERY
of "super-systems"

> High share
(30%..>50% w/o ICE)
> AI-based optimization of
"super-systems"
> Lower share of
individual car ownership
While Chinese people would still buy a car even if robocabs were available at lower costs…

> High share
(30%..>50% w/o ICE)
"super-systems"
> Low share of
While Chinese people would still buy a car even if robocabs were available at lower costs,
they are far more open to use such a service than people in the Western world…

> High share
(30%..>50% w/o ICE)
"super-systems"
> Low share of
> MaaS using Purpose-built
mobility vehicles (PMV's):
- modular
- electric (BEV and/or FC)
- connected
- autonomous (L4/L5)

PMV's for autonomous "Mobility-as-a-service" (MaaS) could significantly
increase sustainability of individual mobility in all relevant dimensions
Modular "Purpose-build Mobility Vehicles" (PBVs) in the connected mobility ecosystem 2030+
Baseline – Global average passenger vehicle ICE Fully modular L4 PBV with e-powertrain, not related to AEV, Evelocity and similar concepts Indicative estimates
Example: © AEV Robotics
Example concept
shown at CES 2019
Resources used
[g resource demand per km driven]
Life-time CO2 emission
[g CO2 per km driven]
Safety
[Human deaths per 106 km driven]
Wasted lifetime
[Minutes of traffic jam per km driven]
Cost
[EUR per km driven]
PMV
for
MaaS

But MaaS will also change profit pool distribution – service platforms, AI-/
software- and other tech companies capture major share from Auto industry
9%
20%
38%
30%
3%
Independent
retail &
aftersales
OEM
OES
MaaSCaaSCar as-
an-Asset
Profit pool distribution, if 30% of km's driven using own vehicles are replaced by automated MaaS
Car-as-a-Service (CaaS)
includes
> Connected services
> Independent FS
From "ownership" to "usership"
Global mobility profit pool
distribution 20171) EUR 400 bn
Profit pool distribution 2030+ EUR 590 bn
Note: Assuming a replacement of 30% of km's driven with own car by MaaS
Mobility-as-a-Service includes (MaaS)
34% =
EUR 200 bn
(+190 bn)
= ("Auto")
EUR 390 bn
(+/- 0)
> Autonomous RoboCabs
> Car/ride hailing(w/driver)
> Carsharing and car-rental
> B2C mobility services (e.g. taxi services)
> AI-driving system incl. sensors
> Training simulation & backend
> Data collection, transportation and distribution
> HD real-time learning maps
> Mobility platform services incl. payment
> Operational fleet management services
> …
1) Tier 1 supplier, OEM, retail, spare parts& repair, financial services and other Auto Services

The path towards sustainable individual mobility is bumpy, requiring thought-
ful policy support to dampen the side-effects of necessary structural changes
Summary and implications
MADE trends will ultimately disrupt traditional
"Automotive business models" as we know them Impact and benefits of global cooperation
Long-term, a mobility ecosystem based on aMaaS allows
sustainable individual mobility for everybody, but
Summary and implications
2030+………….today
• Increased coordinated global efforts to drive sustain-
nability of people, goods and food transportation
• Exchange on results in and collaborative
fundamental research across regions
• Free trade and free market access to reap benefits of
global cooperation and work distribution for everybody
• Regional investments by global companies to ensure
local value add and increase prosperity / reduce
impacts of structural changes respectively
• Faster progress in crucial technology areas to pave
the way to sustainable individual mobility
• Necessary technology developments in AI, Sensors and
SemCo's, as well as materials (e.g. for energy storage),
require strong R&D efforts
• Increasing eMobility-share will reduce value-add and
profitability for incumbent OEMs in next 5..7 years signi-
ficantly, necessary technology investments (combined
increase cost pressure even more
• Expected decline in jobs within the Automotive industry
with their important role for employment especially in
Western countries lead to questioning of benefits of
globalization by populists

Dr.
Wolfgang
Bernhart
Senior Partner
Stay tuned with our Automotive publications: https://www.rolandberger.com/en/Dossiers/MADE.html
Your contact for further questions and discussions
1988-1993 KIT (Techn. University Karlsruhe),
Institute for Production
Technology (wbk), Ph.D. in
Engineering
1993-1996 Diebold Deutschland GmbH
1996-2002 Arthur D. Little, since 2001
Head of Auto Practice GER
2002-2003 COVISINT B.V., Amsterdam
2003-2006 Arthur D. Little, Head of
Automotive Practice CEE
since 2007 Senior Partner @ Roland Berger
Head of Industrial Technology
Team | Global Automotive
Competence Center
1983-1988 KIT (Techn. University Karlsruhe),
Master in Mechanical
Engineering
(Production Science)
Over 40 projects on eMobility and LiB, e,g,
> Strategy projects for most leading global cell suppliers,
active material companies, refiners and mining in LiB
> Growth strategies for multiple major global suppliers with
respect to electric powertrain components / subsystems
> Various eMobility- and LiB-related projects for major
OEMs
Over 30 projects around electronics, HAD,
Connectivity, and software e.g.
> New EE architecture for OEM
> Electronics strategy for various leading system suppliers
> Strategy connected vehicles / IVI for 2 leading global
OEMs
> Connected vehicle strategy for leading West-Coast SW
company
> "SW-Enabled company" – Transformation program for
leading premium OEM
Over 20 projects around new mobility
Wolfgang.Bernhart@rolandberger.com
+49 (160) 744 7421

Technology and the quest for efficient and sustainable individual mobility wnevc 2019

Technology and the quest for efficient and sustainable individual mobility wnevc 2019

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (20)

Similar to Technology and the quest for efficient and sustainable individual mobility wnevc 2019

Similar to Technology and the quest for efficient and sustainable individual mobility wnevc 2019 (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (17)

Technology and the quest for efficient and sustainable individual mobility wnevc 2019