This document discusses the potential impacts of autonomous vehicles on cities. It notes that AVs could significantly improve safety by removing human error, increase road capacity, and provide new mobility options. However, it also raises challenges around planning, legislation, public acceptance, and generational issues. A key point is that the price of accessing AVs will influence traffic volumes, public transport use, car ownership patterns, and urban structure. If prices are low it could lead to sprawl, but higher prices may concentrate development and constrain vehicle miles traveled. The document argues cities must carefully consider these impacts to shape a sustainable vision for autonomous vehicles.

1. Autonomous Vehicles and Impact on Cities
LEEDS UNIVERSITY
STELIOS RODOULIS

2. Introduction
What’s in a car?
• The Big Auto Manufacturers’ approach: ABS, cruise control, hazard
recognition, collision prevention, steering/parking assist, active lane keeping,
blind-spot identification, etc
• Google’s approach: ‘shooting for the moon’
• Incremental evolution VS Google’s disruptive approach
Nomenclature
• Autonomous Vehicles, Robocars
(Brad Templeton), Driverless
Cars, intelligent drive systems,
Self-Driving Cars, Unmanned
Ground Vehicles (MIRA)....
• “Driverless Car” = the new
“Horseless Carriage” ?

3. Levels of Automation
MIRA LTD

4. 10 Changes and Impacts of AV technology
1. Safety
• Human behaviour is a contributing factor in over 90% of
road accidents. AVs can mitigate against this trend by
largely removing human decision making behind the
wheel
2. Economics
• Economic cost of road accidents in 2010 in the US was
$277billion
• Lower operating costs
• ‘Value of Time’ in transport economics and appraisal
methods needs to be reconsidered
• Changes in car ownership & better vehicle utilisation
• The Sharing Economy and “Mobility as a Service”

5. 10 Changes and Impacts of AV technology
3. Smarter + Faster = Efficient
• Smoother, faster and more predictable traffic flows = reduction in congestion
4. Improved Quality of Life
• New mobility opportunities regardless of age, physical or driving ability
• Lower emissions (electric or combustion engine) due to the AV-controlled
optimal energy utilisation and lighter vehicles
Blind man sitting in the
driver's seat of Google's
self-driving Prius

6. 10 Changes and Impacts of AV technology
5. Road Capacity
• AVs will run closer together, increasing highway / junction capacity
• Road capacity is estimated to increase by a (conservative) factor of 2 or 3
• Real-time, data-driven traffic management
• This would materially affect the way transport infrastructure is appraised and planned

7. ‘Rush hour’ by Black Sheep Films (2014)

8. 10 Changes and Impacts of AV technology
6. Land Use Planning & improved urban realm
• Singapore is already constructing a 200 hectare ‘Autonomous Transit Oriented
Development’ at OneNorth.
• Blighted housing stock close to traffic, fumes, and noise may become more desirable
and increase in value.
• De-cluttering of hard traffic management measures (e.g. road signs, gantries)
• Streetscaping and shared space schemes may become more common

9. 10 Changes and Impacts of AV technology
7. Parking
• Cars with no drivers can park more closely together
• Decreased demand for parking near the destination
• City centre car parks: change in land use?

10. 10 Changes and Impacts of AV technology

11. 10 Changes and Impacts of AV technology
8. Public Transport
• Impact will vary according to density, provision, demand
• AVs as an extension of public transport?
• We must plan to avoid Transport Poverty
9. Infrastructure investments
• Increasing capacity on existing roads reduces the need for new road
infrastructure
10.Urban Sprawl
• More comfortable and potentially productive commuting = Urban Sprawl?
• Road pricing can be used to alleviate/control urban sprawl

12. The Challenges
Planning
• AVs impact will vary according to a city's age, size, morphology and
existing transport provision
Legislation and Liability
• Insurance Market: why would you need to pay for insurance in a
world with no accidents?
• Who would take responsibility in an accident: the occupant, vehicle
manufacturer or software company?
• New methods of risk management will be required and the insurance
industry will need to adapt to the technology

13. The Challenges - Safety
• The Trolley Problem: how will
an AV choose between
damaging itself and/or the
people in it, or a child in its
way?
• Hardware or software failures
and cyber-attack scenarios
• Artificial Intelligence may
provide some solutions

14. The Challenges – Generational Issues
• Generation Y is more
interested in owning and
using their latest
smartphone, than driving the
latest hot-hatch car or even
getting a driving licence.
• Breakdown of traditional
concepts of owning and
driving cars
• Driving as an activity:
enjoyment, chore or
inconvenience?

15. The Challenges - Acceptability
• Potential resistance to the
technology by the ‘Top Gear’
demographic
• Race Tracks & Motorsports
can be one outlet for car
enthusiasts who prefer control
and like to drive ‘manually’
• People’s acceptability of
driverless technology is likely
to be gradual, becoming more
positive as people or society
experience the range of
benefits

16. Conclusion
• Significant societal, economic and environmental benefits but
also barriers to the deployment of AVs
• The profile of AVs is promoted in the mainstream by Google et
al, but it is largely ignored in current urban and transport
planning thinking
• Cities need to understand and incorporate AVs into their future
visions, from today onwards

17. Charging for AVs = a new smart urban
management tool ?

18. Charging for AVs = a new smart urban management tool ?
The price set for using or
accessing an AV will have a
direct impact on how cities
experience the benefits (or
disbenefits) of AVs.
What are the advantages and
disadvantages of each pricing
scenario?
Charging for AVs
Impact on Low Price Scenario High Price Scenario
Traffic Volumes
Public
Transport
Car Ownership
Patterns
Urban Structure

19. Impact on
Charging for AVs
Low Price Scenario High Price Scenario
Traffic Volumes Massive increase in car traffic
(VKT), offset by improvement in
ability of road network to handle it
Price as a deterrent for km
travelled or an incentive to change
time of travel (e.g. cheaper in off
peak). Price to constrain car use
Charging for AVs = a new smart urban management tool ?

20. Impact on
Charging for AVs
Low Price Scenario High Price Scenario
Traffic Volumes Massive increase in car traffic
(VKT), offset by improvement in
ability of road network to handle it
Price as a deterrent for km
travelled or an incentive to change
time of travel (e.g. cheaper in off
peak). Price to constrain car use
Public Transport Public Transport subtraction. Death
of local bus networks, except on
very dense transport corridors
AV technology used mainly to
lower fares for driverless
bus/shared taxi networks – through
a reduction of operating costs.
Charging for AVs = a new smart urban management tool ?

21. Impact on
Charging for AVs
Low Price Scenario High Price Scenario
Traffic Volumes Massive increase in car traffic
(VKT), offset by improvement in
ability of road network to handle it
Price as a deterrent for km
travelled or an incentive to change
time of travel (e.g. cheaper in off
peak). Price to constrain car use
Public Transport Public Transport subtraction. Death
of local bus networks, except on
very dense transport corridors
AV technology used mainly to
lower fares for driverless
bus/shared taxi networks – through
a reduction of operating costs.
Car Ownership Patterns
Variety of car ownership models:
outright ownership, on-demand hire
(from a private or public operator),
car sharing
Few people own an AV outright,
most share or hire on-demand.
Charging for AVs = a new smart urban management tool ?

22. Impact on
Charging for AVs
Low Price Scenario High Price Scenario
Traffic Volumes Massive increase in car traffic
(VKT), offset by improvement in
ability of road network to handle it
Price as a deterrent for km
travelled or an incentive to change
time of travel (e.g. cheaper in off
peak). Price to constrain car use
Public Transport Public Transport subtraction. Death
of local bus networks, except on
very dense transport corridors
AV technology used mainly to
lower fares for driverless
bus/shared taxi networks – through
a reduction of operating costs.
Car Ownership Patterns
Variety of car ownership models:
outright ownership, on-demand hire
(from a private or public operator),
car sharing
Few people own an AV outright,
most share or hire on-demand.
Urban Structure
People may be more inclined to
travel farther distances.
Geographical decoupling of home
/ work location, resulting in urban
sprawl and higher energy
consumption
Concentration of homes /
workplaces leading to urban
containment which may also
constrain energy consumption
Charging for AVs = a new smart urban management tool ?

23. • Price of AVs must be balanced and ensure that transport is inclusive for
all and avoid transport poverty
• AV pricing has the potential to contribute or control urban sprawl
• Cities will face many dilemmas regarding road capacity:
• Allow more vehicles on the road OR reallocate road space to more
sustainable transport modes, such as walking and cycling or
other uses?
• Will induced demand create need for more roads?
• City authorities need to have a clear appreciation of what land is likely to
become available (or not) and a strong vision/leadership for its re-use or
management
Charging for AVs = a new smart urban management tool ?

24. www.jacobs.com | worldwide
“…I THINK THERE'S A VISION HERE, A NEW
TECHNOLOGY, AND I'M REALLY LOOKING
FORWARD TO A TIME WHEN GENERATIONS AFTER
US LOOK BACK AT US AND SAY HOW RIDICULOUS
IT WAS THAT HUMANS WERE DRIVING CARS”
SEBASTIAN THRUN (GOOGLE)
Stelios Rodoulis
stelios.rodoulis@jacobs.com