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Copernicus
Atmosphere
Monitoring
Service
CAMS General Assembly, Athens, 14-16 June
2016
Matthieu Plu (Météo-France) and colleagues from
Météo-France, INERIS, KNMI, CNRS-LA and IUP-
Bremen
How do regional products
perform?
2
Plan
How are regional products evaluated?
How do regional forecasts perform?
How do regional analyses perform?
How do regional re-analyses perform?
Additional validation of regional products: columns
and profiles
3
How are regional products evaluated?
Monitoring
Filtering
Verification
of regional CAMS products
(NRT forecasts, analyses,
re-analyses)
Surface observations from EIONET
- « Near-Real time » (NRT) dataflow
- A posteriori validated dataflow Data assimilation
in regional models
(NRT analyses,
re-analyses)
Ozone
NO2
SO2
CO
PM10
PM2.5
4
How are regional products evaluated?
• Statistical indicators (bias, root-mean square error,
correlation, FGE) are reported on the regional CAMS
webpages and in quarterly (seasonal) reports,
• Scores computed for all models, and for the ENSEMBLE,
www.regional.atmosphere.copernicus.com
Ensemble and observations
of ozone concentrations
on 03.07.2015 at 15 UTC
5
How do regional forecasts perform?
• Performance of near-real time
(NRT) forecasts of ozone
during summer:
ENSEMBLE
biasrmse
correlation
Members
6
How do regional forecasts perform?
modifiedbias
rmsecorrelation
• Performance of NRT ensemble
forecasts of PM10 during winter:
7
How do regional analyses perform?
• Quarterly r.m.s.e of the ENSEMBLE ozone daily
maximum: Ozone
Forecasts
~ 13 µg.m-3
Analyses
~ 8 µg.m-3
(verification done
against un-assimilated
observations)
8
Plan
How are regional products evaluated?
How do regional forecasts perform?
How do regional analyses perform?
How do regional re-analyses perform?
Additional validation of regional products: columns
and profiles
9
How do regional re-analyses perform?
• ~2/3 observations for assimilation + ~1/3 observations for evaluation,
• Evaluation of individual and Ensemble outputs is systematically performed with
statistical indicators (RMSE, bias, correlation) with European mapping over 3
categories of stations (rural, suburban and urban).
Ozone
10
How do regional re-analyses perform?
• ~2/3 observations for assimilation + ~1/3 observations for evaluation,
• Evaluation of individual and Ensemble outputs is systematically performed with
statistical indicators (RMSE, bias, correlation) with European mapping over 3
categories of stations (rural, suburban and urban).
PM10
11
How do regional re-analyses perform?
• Scores are also described over 5 main European sub-regions:
• EUW (western), EUC (central), EUN (Northern), EUE
(Eastern), EUS (Southern)
12
How do regional re-analyses perform?
• Assessment of the ability to detect threshold (daily
exceedances for ozone and PM10)
13
Plan
How are regional products evaluated?
How do regional forecasts perform?
How do regional analyses perform?
How do regional re-analyses perform?
Additional validation of regional products: columns
and profiles
14
Additional validation of regional products: columns
and profiles
Observations considered:
IAGOS aircraft O3, CO
Ozone sondes
MAX-DOAS NO2 (SO2, HCHO, Aerosol)
Lidar and Ceilometer aerosol profiles
Total AOD
High-altitude in-situ observations
Satellite NO2, CO, O3
Comparisons between global & regional analyses
15
Additional validation of regional products: example
Anne Blechschmidt, IUP-Bremen
MAX-DOAS, De Bilt
MAX-DOAS: NO2 vertical column
Ensemble
Members
Hannah Clark, CNRS-LA
IAGOS profiles vs Members
Ozone CO
Hour of the day
16
Conclusion
• Validation of all regional products publicly available in
reports and website: www.regional.atmosphere.copernicus.com
• New: validation of regional products above the surface,
• Evaluation is important for users,
• Evaluation is also important for the service providers to
to identify shortcomings and improve their products.

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CAMS GA Regional Performance

  • 1. Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service CAMS General Assembly, Athens, 14-16 June 2016 Matthieu Plu (Météo-France) and colleagues from Météo-France, INERIS, KNMI, CNRS-LA and IUP- Bremen How do regional products perform?
  • 2. 2 Plan How are regional products evaluated? How do regional forecasts perform? How do regional analyses perform? How do regional re-analyses perform? Additional validation of regional products: columns and profiles
  • 3. 3 How are regional products evaluated? Monitoring Filtering Verification of regional CAMS products (NRT forecasts, analyses, re-analyses) Surface observations from EIONET - « Near-Real time » (NRT) dataflow - A posteriori validated dataflow Data assimilation in regional models (NRT analyses, re-analyses) Ozone NO2 SO2 CO PM10 PM2.5
  • 4. 4 How are regional products evaluated? • Statistical indicators (bias, root-mean square error, correlation, FGE) are reported on the regional CAMS webpages and in quarterly (seasonal) reports, • Scores computed for all models, and for the ENSEMBLE, www.regional.atmosphere.copernicus.com Ensemble and observations of ozone concentrations on 03.07.2015 at 15 UTC
  • 5. 5 How do regional forecasts perform? • Performance of near-real time (NRT) forecasts of ozone during summer: ENSEMBLE biasrmse correlation Members
  • 6. 6 How do regional forecasts perform? modifiedbias rmsecorrelation • Performance of NRT ensemble forecasts of PM10 during winter:
  • 7. 7 How do regional analyses perform? • Quarterly r.m.s.e of the ENSEMBLE ozone daily maximum: Ozone Forecasts ~ 13 µg.m-3 Analyses ~ 8 µg.m-3 (verification done against un-assimilated observations)
  • 8. 8 Plan How are regional products evaluated? How do regional forecasts perform? How do regional analyses perform? How do regional re-analyses perform? Additional validation of regional products: columns and profiles
  • 9. 9 How do regional re-analyses perform? • ~2/3 observations for assimilation + ~1/3 observations for evaluation, • Evaluation of individual and Ensemble outputs is systematically performed with statistical indicators (RMSE, bias, correlation) with European mapping over 3 categories of stations (rural, suburban and urban). Ozone
  • 10. 10 How do regional re-analyses perform? • ~2/3 observations for assimilation + ~1/3 observations for evaluation, • Evaluation of individual and Ensemble outputs is systematically performed with statistical indicators (RMSE, bias, correlation) with European mapping over 3 categories of stations (rural, suburban and urban). PM10
  • 11. 11 How do regional re-analyses perform? • Scores are also described over 5 main European sub-regions: • EUW (western), EUC (central), EUN (Northern), EUE (Eastern), EUS (Southern)
  • 12. 12 How do regional re-analyses perform? • Assessment of the ability to detect threshold (daily exceedances for ozone and PM10)
  • 13. 13 Plan How are regional products evaluated? How do regional forecasts perform? How do regional analyses perform? How do regional re-analyses perform? Additional validation of regional products: columns and profiles
  • 14. 14 Additional validation of regional products: columns and profiles Observations considered: IAGOS aircraft O3, CO Ozone sondes MAX-DOAS NO2 (SO2, HCHO, Aerosol) Lidar and Ceilometer aerosol profiles Total AOD High-altitude in-situ observations Satellite NO2, CO, O3 Comparisons between global & regional analyses
  • 15. 15 Additional validation of regional products: example Anne Blechschmidt, IUP-Bremen MAX-DOAS, De Bilt MAX-DOAS: NO2 vertical column Ensemble Members Hannah Clark, CNRS-LA IAGOS profiles vs Members Ozone CO Hour of the day
  • 16. 16 Conclusion • Validation of all regional products publicly available in reports and website: www.regional.atmosphere.copernicus.com • New: validation of regional products above the surface, • Evaluation is important for users, • Evaluation is also important for the service providers to to identify shortcomings and improve their products.