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                                                                                                Quick take
 Bombay Dyeing                                                                               BUY
                                                                                             CMP                                `624
 Vintage gains                                                                               Target Price                       `894
 We believe that Bombay Dyeing monetising its legacy land bank in a timely                   Investment Period           12 Months
 manner will be a key trigger for its stock performance. Moreover, recovery in its
 manufacturing (textile and polyester units) business will be an additional catalyst         Stock Info
 for the stock. We have valued the real estate business at `940/share and                    Sector                        Diversified
 manufacturing business at 0.5x of its asset value fetching `112/share. Hence, we            Market Cap (` cr)                   2,410
 recommend a Buy on the stock with a Target Price of `894/share, which is at 15%             Beta                                  1.3
 discount to our NAV.                                                                        52 Week High / Low             692/344
 Legacy land bank at prime location to unlock value: Bombay Dyeing has ~65                   Avg. Daily Volume              253,826
 acres of historical mill land located in Central Mumbai. Both the properties have           Face Value (`)                        10
 ~9mn sq ft of saleable area (1mn sq ft already developed), which the company                BSE Sensex                         19,872
 intends to develop (mixed) over the next 8-10 years. The company has already                Nifty                               5,982
 entered into a contract with L&T to develop the properties. By end 2HFY2011,                Reuters Code                  BDYN.BO
 company intends to launch 1mn sq ft for residential purposes at Spring Mills                Bloomberg Code                     BD@IN
 (Dadar). In 1HFY2011, the company’s real estate segment reported EBIT of
 `41.4cr.
                                                                                             Shareholding Pattern (%)
 Signs of improvement in manufacturing business: Bombay Dyeing has undertaken
 measures to improve profitability of its manufacturing business by reducing                 Promoters                            47.1

 inventory, initiating cost reduction measures viz. switching over from liquid fuel to       MF / Banks / Indian Fls              19.0
 natural gas, shifting its manufacturing base and launching new products.                    FII / NRIs / OCBs                    12.7
 Consequently, EBIT loss was lower for Textile division at `14.4cr in 1HFY2011 v/s           Indian Public / Others               21.2
 `22.3cr in 1HFY2010 while the Polyester division reported a profit of `9.1cr in
 1HFY2011 v/s a loss of `39.6cr in 1HFY2010. Further, the demand has been
 reviving in the domestic segment, which has improved utilisation levels.                    Abs. (%)             3m      1yr      3yr
                                                                                             Sensex              11.2    15.4     13.2
 Trading at attractive valuations: We have conservatively assumed execution
                                                                                             Bombay Dyeing       22.2    45.6      2.0
 period of ten years for the 8mn sq ft of saleable area. Further, the promoters
 recently issued 4mn warrants at `527.83/share, which will increase their stake
 from 47.1% to 52.1% post conversion. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 41%
 discount to our NAV. Hence we recommend Buy.

 Key Financials (Standalone)
  Y/E March (` cr)                      FY2007        FY2008      FY2009    FY2010
  Net sales                                 505           973      1,324      1,652
  % chg                                                  92.6        36.1       24.8
  Net profit                                  36           17       (195)         18
  % chg                                                (53.6)                      -
  EBITDA (%)                                14.7          7.3         0.1       15.6
  EPS (`)                                    9.3          4.3      (50.4)        4.8
                                                                                         Param Desai
  P/E (x)                                   67.1       144.5            -     130.8
                                                                                         022-40403800 Ext:310
  P/BV (x)                                   6.0          5.9         6.5       11.5
                                                                                         paramv.desai@angelbroking.com
  RoE (%)                                    9.2          4.1      (50.0)        6.3
  RoCE (%)                                   4.7          2.2       (2.8)        9.7     Mihir Salot
  EV/Sales (x)                               6.8          3.9         3.0        2.5     022-40403800 Ext:307
  EV/EBITDA (x)                             46.1         52.9     4,996.4       16.1     mihirr.salot@angelbroking.com
 Source: Company, Angel Research


Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                                                                      1
Quick take
                                                                                         Bombay Dyeing



                   Valuation - Trading at significant discount to NAV

                       Spring Mill valued at `954/share: We have assumed 5mn sq ft as saleable
                       area from the 40 acre Spring Mill project. The selling price has been assumed
                       at `20,000/sq ft for the residential project and rental of `125/sq ft for the
                       commercial segment. From FY2012 onwards, we have factored in 5% price
                       escalation in the construction, capital and rental value of this project. We have
                       assumed that Bombay Dyeing will develop the entire Spring Mill project by
                       FY2021.

                       Worli Mill valued at `720/share: We have assumed 3mn sq ft as saleable
                       area from its 20 acre Worli Mill project. The selling price has been assumed at
                       `25,000/ sq ft for the residential project and rental of `150/sq ft for the
                       commercial segment. From FY2012 onwards, we have factored in 5% price
                       escalation in the construction, capital and rental value for this project. We
                       have assumed that Bombay Dyeing will develop the entire Worli Mill project by
                       FY2021.

                       We have assigned 15% WACC and 10% capitalisation rate

                       We have assumed `4,000/sq ft of construction cost currently

                       We have assumed tax rate of 33% for its real estate business


                   Exhibit 1: Buy with a Target Price of `894
                   Valuation Summary                                                              (`/ share)
                   Spring Mill                                                                         954
                   Worli Mill                                                                          720
                   Textile and Polyester assets (0.5x its asset value)                                 112
                   GAV                                                                               1,785
                   Less Net debt                                                                      (414)
                   Less: Present value of taxes                                                       (320)
                   NAV/share                                                                         1,052
                   Target Price (15% discount to NAV)                                                  894
                   Source: Angel Research



                   Exhibit 2: Segment-wise break-up
                   (` cr)                            FY2007        FY2008       FY2009   FY2010    1HFY11
                   Revenue
                   Textiles                              368             351      321      294         182
                   Polyester                               30            387      766      819         539
                   Real Estate                           124             240      273      562         144
                   EBIT
                   Textiles                              (29)            (17)     (66)     (38)        (14)
                   Polyester                               (9)           (54)     (73)     (66)           9
                   Real Estate                           111             140      159      346           41
                   Source: Company, Angel Research




October 20, 2010                                                                                           2
Quick take
                                                                                                                    Bombay Dyeing



                                                   Scenario Analysis

                                                   Best case: We retain our base case pricing assumption (5% increase yoy from
                                                   FY2012 onwards), and assumed an 8-year execution pipeline. Further, we expect
                                                   recovery in the manufacturing business at a faster pace and thereby valuing it at
                                                   1x its assets. This gives an NAV of `1,480/share (including `224/share for its
                                                   manufacturing segment)


                                                   Base case: We have factored in 5% price escalation from FY2012 onwards in the
                                                   construction, capital and rental values for the Spring Mill and Worli Mill projects.
                                                   We have assumed that Bombay Dyeing will develop the projects entirely by
                                                   FY2021. This gives an NAV of `1,052/share (including `112/share for its
                                                   manufacturing segment, valuing it at 0.5x its assets).


                                                   Worst case: We have assumed 10% correction in the rental and capital values in
                                                   FY2012, 0% in FY2013 and 5% increase from FY2014 onwards. We have
                                                   assumed a two-year delay in complete execution pipeline from the Base case
                                                   scenario. We have assigned zero value to its manufacturing business. This gives an
                                                   NAV of `554/share.


Exhibit 3: Scenario Analysis
Assumptions                                                                       Best case           Base case             Worst case
Residential pricing in FY2011
Spring mill, Dadar                                                                  25,000              20,000                 20,000
Worli mill                                                                          30,000              25,000                 25,000


Commercial rentals
Spring mill, Dadar                                                                      125                 125                   125
Worli mill                                                                              150                 150                   150


Increase in rental and capital values from FY12 onwards (%)                                5                   5                  (10)
Execution of entire 2 properties                                                      FY19E               FY21E                 FY23E
Manufacturing business valuation                                              1.0x its assets     0.5x its assets           Zero value
1-yr forward NAV                                                                      1,480               1,052                   554
Source: Angel Research




October 20, 2010                                                                                                                     3
Quick take
                                                                              Bombay Dyeing




                   Profit & Loss Statement (Standalone)
                   Y/E March (` cr)                       FY2007   FY2008    FY2009     FY2010
                   Gross sales                              509      998      1,368      1,699
                   Less: Excise duty                          4        25        44         46
                   Net Sales                                505      973      1,324      1,652
                   Other operating income                      -         -         -          -
                   Total operating income                   505      973      1,324      1,652
                    % chg                                     -      92.6      36.1        24.8
                   Total Expenditure                       (431)    (902)    (1,323)    (1,395)
                   Cost of construction incl land costs      (1)      (75)      (88)      (196)
                   Other Mfg costs                         (315)    (667)     (831)       (834)
                   Personnel                                (38)      (35)      (51)       (50)
                   Other                                    (77)    (125)     (353)       (316)
                   EBITDA                                    74        71       0.8        257
                    % chg                                     -      (4.3)    (98.9)   32,041.2
                    (% of Net Sales)                        14.7      7.3       0.1        15.6
                   Depreciation & Amortisation              (17)      (35)      (56)       (60)
                   EBIT                                      57        36       (55)       198
                    % chg                                     -     (37.1)         -    (459.7)
                    (% of Net Sales)                        11.3      3.7      (4.1)       12.0
                   Interest & other Charges                 (32)      (73)    (187)       (207)
                   Other Income                              27        47        50         33
                    (% of PBT)                              51.8    520.9     (26.1)     141.8
                   Recurring PBT                             52         9     (192)         24
                    % chg                                     -     (82.9)         -    (112.3)
                   Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.)             (12)        9        (2)        (1)
                   PBT (reported)                            40        18     (194)         22
                   Tax                                       (4)       (1)       (1)        (4)
                    (% of PBT)                              11.1      7.4      (0.5)       17.0
                   PAT (reported)                            36        17     (195)         18
                   Less: Minority interest (MI)                -         -         -          -
                   PAT after MI (reported)                   36        17     (195)         18
                   ADJ. PAT                                  48         8     (193)         20
                    % chg                                     -     (84.1)         -         -
                    (% of Net Sales)                         9.5      0.8     (14.5)        1.2
                   Basic EPS (`)                             9.3      4.3     (50.4)        4.8
                   Fully Diluted EPS (`)                     8.9      4.1     (48.0)        4.5
                    % chg                                     -     (53.6)         -          -




October 20, 2010                                                                              4
Quick take
                                                                  Bombay Dyeing



                   Balance Sheet (Standalone)
                   Y/E March (` cr)             FY2007   FY2008   FY2009   FY2010
                    SOURCES OF FUNDS
                    Equity Share Capital           39       39       39       39
                    Warrants/Share App. Money        -      12         -        -
                    Reserves& Surplus             364      357      332      172
                    Shareholder’s Funds           403      408      370      210
                    Minority Interest                -        -        -        -
                    Total Loans                  1,052    1,413    1,711    1,775
                    Deferred Tax Liability          2         -        -        -
                    Total Liabilities            1,457    1,821    2,081    1,985
                    APPLICATION OF FUNDS
                    Gross Block                   655     1,060    1,160    1,183
                    Less: Acc. Depreciation       513      124      179      231
                    Net Block                     142      937      981      952
                    Capital Work-in-Progress      736      304      219      208
                    Goodwill                         -        -        -        -
                    Investments                   154      127       60       60
                    Current Assets                661      751     1,167    1,092
                       Cash                        36       54      124       34
                       Loans & Advances           199      267      253      278
                       Other                      426      430      791      779
                    Current liabilities           302      300      347      327
                    Net Current Assets            359      451      820      765
                    Mis. Exp. not written off      67        3        1         -
                    Total Assets                 1,457    1,821    2,081    1,985




October 20, 2010                                                                5
Quick take
                                                                         Bombay Dyeing



                   Cash Flow Statement (Standalone)
                   Y/E March (` cr)                   FY2007   FY2008   FY2009   FY2010
                    Profit before tax                    40       18     (194)      22
                    Depreciation                         17       35       56       60
                    Other Adjustments                   (48)      33      199      207
                    Change in Working Capital             7      (20)     (47)    (201)
                    Less: Direct taxes paid              (6)     (11)      (5)     (13)
                    Cash Flow from Operations            11       55        9       75
                    Inc./ (Dec.) in Fixed Assets       (455)    (279)     (80)     (15)
                    Inc./ (Dec.) in Investments          18       31       70        0
                    Other income                         23       (5)       8        2
                    Cash Flow from Investing           (413)    (252)      (2)     (12)
                    Issue of Equity/Sh appl. Money        0       12         -        -
                    Inc./(Dec.) in loans                494      359      270       60
                    Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)           (22)     (23)     (16)      (5)
                    Others                              (66)    (134)    (191)    (207)
                    Cash Flow from Financing            406      214       63     (152)
                    Inc./(Dec.) in Cash                   3       18       70      (90)
                    Opening Cash balances                33       36       54      124
                    Closing Cash balances                36       54      124       34




October 20, 2010                                                                      6
Quick take
                                                                                 Bombay Dyeing



                   Key Ratios
                   Y/E March                                 FY2007   FY2008    FY2009    FY2010
                    Valuation Ratio (x)
                    P/E (on FDEPS)                             67.1    144.5          -    130.8
                    P/CEPS                                     47.4     48.6          -     32.5
                    P/BV                                        6.0      5.9        6.5     11.5
                    Dividend yield (%)                          0.8      0.5        0.2      0.4
                    EV/Sales                                    6.8      3.9        3.0      2.5
                    EV/EBITDA                                  46.1     52.9    4,996.4     16.1
                    EV / Total Assets                           2.4      2.1        1.9      2.1
                    Per Share Data (`)
                    EPS (Basic)                                 9.3      4.3     (50.4)      4.8
                    EPS (fully diluted)                         8.9      4.1     (48.0)      4.5
                    Cash EPS                                   13.2     12.9     (34.3)     19.2
                    DPS                                         4.8      3.3        1.0      2.4
                    Book Value                                 104      106         96        54
                    Dupont Analysis
                    EBIT margin                                11.3      3.7      (4.1)     12.0
                    Tax retention ratio                        88.9     92.6     100.5      83.0
                    Asset turnover (x)                         35.6     55.1      67.6      84.7
                    ROIC (Post-tax)                             3.6      1.9      (2.8)      8.4
                    Cost of Debt (Post Tax)                     3.5      5.5      12.0       9.9
                    Leverage (x)                                2.0      2.9        3.8      5.7
                    Operating ROE                               3.7     (8.8)    (59.0)     (0.1)
                    Returns (%)
                    ROCE (Pre-tax)                              4.7      2.2      (2.8)      9.7
                    Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)                       13.3      2.8      (3.3)     11.3
                    ROE                                         9.2      4.1     (50.0)      6.3
                    Turnover ratios (x)
                    Asset Turnover (Gross Block)                0.8      1.1        1.2      1.4
                    Inventory / Sales (days)                   139        59        72        58
                    Receivables (days)                         148      101         95      115
                    Payables (days)                            115        92        60        48
                    Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days)     389      248        240      232
                    Solvency ratios (x)
                    Net debt to equity                          2.5      3.3        4.3      8.3
                    Net debt to EBITDA                         13.7     19.1    1,984.1      6.8
                    Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest)         1.8      0.5      (0.3)      1.0




October 20, 2010                                                                                7
Quick take
                                                                                                                          Bombay Dyeing



  Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800                E-mail: research@angeltrade.com                   Website: www.angeltrade.com

  DISCLAIMER

  This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
  decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
  such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
  referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
  risks of such an investment.

  Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make
  investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
  document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

  Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
  trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
  fundamentals.

  The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
  sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
  document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
  responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
  Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify,
  nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
  Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,
  compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
  This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
  redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.

  Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or
  other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in
  the past.

  Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
  connection with the use of this information.

  Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please
  refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and
  its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.




  Disclosure of Interest Statement                                            Bombay Dyeing
  1. Analyst ownership of the stock                                                No
  2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                         Yes
  3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock              Yes
  4. Broking relationship with company covered                                     No


  Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors



  Ratings (Returns):              Buy (> 15%)                      Accumulate (5% to 15%)                 Neutral (-5 to 5%)
                                  Reduce (-5% to 15%)              Sell (< -15%)


October 20, 2010                                                                                                                            8
Quick take
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Bombay Dyeing


     Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
                                                                                           Tel: (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800
Research Team
Fundamental:
Sarabjit Kour Nangra                                                        VP-Research, Pharmaceutical                                                                    sarabjit@angelbroking.com
Vaibhav Agrawal                                                             VP-Research, Banking                                                                           vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Vaishali Jajoo                                                              Automobile                                                                                     vaishali.jajoo@angelbroking.com
Shailesh Kanani                                                             Infrastructure, Real Estate                                                                    shailesh.kanani@angelbroking.com
Anand Shah                                                                  FMCG, Media                                                                                    anand.shah@angelbroking.com
Deepak Pareek                                                               Oil & Gas                                                                                      deepak.pareek@angelbroking.com
Sushant Dalmia                                                              Pharmaceutical                                                                                 sushant.dalmia@angelbroking.com
Rupesh Sankhe                                                               Cement, Power                                                                                  rupeshd.sankhe@angelbroking.com
Param Desai                                                                 Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping                                                               paramv.desai@angelbroking.com
Sageraj Bariya                                                              Fertiliser, Mid-cap                                                                            sageraj.bariya@angelbroking.com
Paresh Jain                                                                 Metals & Mining                                                                                pareshn.jain@angelbroking.com
Amit Rane                                                                   Banking                                                                                        amitn.rane@angelbroking.com
John Perinchery                                                             Capital Goods                                                                                  john.perinchery@angelbroking.com
Srishti Anand                                                               IT, Telecom                                                                                    srishti.anand@angelbroking.com
Jai Sharda                                                                  Mid-cap                                                                                        jai.sharda@angelbroking.com
Sharan Lillaney                                                             Mid-cap                                                                                        sharanb.lillaney@angelbroking.com
Naitik Mody                                                                 Mid-cap                                                                                        naitiky.mody@angelbroking.com
Amit Vora                                                                   Research Associate (Oil & Gas)                                                                 amit.vora@angelbroking.com
V Srinivasan                                                                Research Associate (Cement, Power)                                                             v.srinivasan@angelbroking.com
Mihir Salot                                                                 Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping)                                                       mihirr.salot@angelbroking.com
Chitrangda Kapur                                                            Research Associate (FMCG, Media)                                                               chitrangdar.kapur@angelbroking.com
Pooja Jain                                                                  Research Associate (Metals & Mining)                                                           pooja.j@angelbroking.com
Yaresh Kothari                                                              Research Associate (Automobile)                                                                yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com
Shrinivas Bhutda                                                            Research Associate (Banking)                                                                   shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com
Sreekanth P.V.S                                                             Research Associate (FMCG, Media)                                                               sreekanth.s@angelbroking.com
Hemang Thaker                                                               Research Associate (Capital Goods)                                                             hemang.thaker@angelbroking.com
Nitin Arora                                                                 Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate)                                                        nitin.arora@angelbroking.com


Technicals:
Shardul Kulkarni                                                            Sr. Technical Analyst                                                                          shardul.kulkarni@angelbroking.com
Mileen Vasudeo                                                              Technical Analyst                                                                              vasudeo.kamalakant@angelbroking.com
Derivatives:
Siddarth Bhamre                                                             Head - Derivatives                                                                             siddarth.bhamre@angelbroking.com
Jaya Agarwal                                                                Derivative Analyst                                                                             jaya.agarwal@angelbroking.com


Institutional Sales Team:
Mayuresh Joshi                                                              VP - Institutional Sales                                                                       mayuresh.joshi@angelbroking.com
Abhimanyu Sofat                                                             AVP - Institutional Sales                                                                      abhimanyu.sofat@angelbroking.com
Nitesh Jalan                                                                Sr. Manager                                                                                    niteshk.jalan@angelbroking.com
Pranav Modi                                                                 Sr. Manager                                                                                    pranavs.modi@angelbroking.com
Sandeep Jangir                                                              Sr. Manager                                                                                    sandeepp.jangir@angelbroking.com
Ganesh Iyer                                                                 Sr. Manager                                                                                    ganeshb.Iyer@angelbroking.com
Jay Harsora                                                                 Sr. Dealer                                                                                     jayr.harsora@angelbroking.com
Meenakshi Chavan                                                            Dealer                                                                                         meenakshis.chavan@angelbroking.com
Gaurang Tisani                                                              Dealer                                                                                         gaurangp.tisani@angelbroking.com


Production Team:
Bharathi Shetty                                                             Research Editor                                                                                bharathi.shetty@angelbroking.com
Simran Kaur                                                                 Research Editor                                                                                simran.kaur@angelbroking.com
Bharat Patil                                                                Production                                                                                     bharat.patil@angelbroking.com
Dilip Patel                                                                 Production                                                                                     dilipm.patel@angelbroking.com

Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
    Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302




 October 20, 2010                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              9

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Bombay dyeing quick take-201010

  • 1.   Quick take Bombay Dyeing BUY CMP `624 Vintage gains Target Price `894 We believe that Bombay Dyeing monetising its legacy land bank in a timely Investment Period 12 Months manner will be a key trigger for its stock performance. Moreover, recovery in its manufacturing (textile and polyester units) business will be an additional catalyst Stock Info for the stock. We have valued the real estate business at `940/share and Sector Diversified manufacturing business at 0.5x of its asset value fetching `112/share. Hence, we Market Cap (` cr) 2,410 recommend a Buy on the stock with a Target Price of `894/share, which is at 15% Beta 1.3 discount to our NAV. 52 Week High / Low 692/344 Legacy land bank at prime location to unlock value: Bombay Dyeing has ~65 Avg. Daily Volume 253,826 acres of historical mill land located in Central Mumbai. Both the properties have Face Value (`) 10 ~9mn sq ft of saleable area (1mn sq ft already developed), which the company BSE Sensex 19,872 intends to develop (mixed) over the next 8-10 years. The company has already Nifty 5,982 entered into a contract with L&T to develop the properties. By end 2HFY2011, Reuters Code BDYN.BO company intends to launch 1mn sq ft for residential purposes at Spring Mills Bloomberg Code BD@IN (Dadar). In 1HFY2011, the company’s real estate segment reported EBIT of `41.4cr. Shareholding Pattern (%) Signs of improvement in manufacturing business: Bombay Dyeing has undertaken measures to improve profitability of its manufacturing business by reducing Promoters 47.1 inventory, initiating cost reduction measures viz. switching over from liquid fuel to MF / Banks / Indian Fls 19.0 natural gas, shifting its manufacturing base and launching new products. FII / NRIs / OCBs 12.7 Consequently, EBIT loss was lower for Textile division at `14.4cr in 1HFY2011 v/s Indian Public / Others 21.2 `22.3cr in 1HFY2010 while the Polyester division reported a profit of `9.1cr in 1HFY2011 v/s a loss of `39.6cr in 1HFY2010. Further, the demand has been reviving in the domestic segment, which has improved utilisation levels. Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex 11.2 15.4 13.2 Trading at attractive valuations: We have conservatively assumed execution Bombay Dyeing 22.2 45.6 2.0 period of ten years for the 8mn sq ft of saleable area. Further, the promoters recently issued 4mn warrants at `527.83/share, which will increase their stake from 47.1% to 52.1% post conversion. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 41% discount to our NAV. Hence we recommend Buy. Key Financials (Standalone) Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 Net sales 505 973 1,324 1,652 % chg 92.6 36.1 24.8 Net profit 36 17 (195) 18 % chg (53.6) - EBITDA (%) 14.7 7.3 0.1 15.6 EPS (`) 9.3 4.3 (50.4) 4.8 Param Desai P/E (x) 67.1 144.5 - 130.8 022-40403800 Ext:310 P/BV (x) 6.0 5.9 6.5 11.5 paramv.desai@angelbroking.com RoE (%) 9.2 4.1 (50.0) 6.3 RoCE (%) 4.7 2.2 (2.8) 9.7 Mihir Salot EV/Sales (x) 6.8 3.9 3.0 2.5 022-40403800 Ext:307 EV/EBITDA (x) 46.1 52.9 4,996.4 16.1 mihirr.salot@angelbroking.com Source: Company, Angel Research Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
  • 2. Quick take Bombay Dyeing Valuation - Trading at significant discount to NAV Spring Mill valued at `954/share: We have assumed 5mn sq ft as saleable area from the 40 acre Spring Mill project. The selling price has been assumed at `20,000/sq ft for the residential project and rental of `125/sq ft for the commercial segment. From FY2012 onwards, we have factored in 5% price escalation in the construction, capital and rental value of this project. We have assumed that Bombay Dyeing will develop the entire Spring Mill project by FY2021. Worli Mill valued at `720/share: We have assumed 3mn sq ft as saleable area from its 20 acre Worli Mill project. The selling price has been assumed at `25,000/ sq ft for the residential project and rental of `150/sq ft for the commercial segment. From FY2012 onwards, we have factored in 5% price escalation in the construction, capital and rental value for this project. We have assumed that Bombay Dyeing will develop the entire Worli Mill project by FY2021. We have assigned 15% WACC and 10% capitalisation rate We have assumed `4,000/sq ft of construction cost currently We have assumed tax rate of 33% for its real estate business Exhibit 1: Buy with a Target Price of `894 Valuation Summary (`/ share) Spring Mill 954 Worli Mill 720 Textile and Polyester assets (0.5x its asset value) 112 GAV 1,785 Less Net debt (414) Less: Present value of taxes (320) NAV/share 1,052 Target Price (15% discount to NAV) 894 Source: Angel Research Exhibit 2: Segment-wise break-up (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 1HFY11 Revenue Textiles 368 351 321 294 182 Polyester 30 387 766 819 539 Real Estate 124 240 273 562 144 EBIT Textiles (29) (17) (66) (38) (14) Polyester (9) (54) (73) (66) 9 Real Estate 111 140 159 346 41 Source: Company, Angel Research October 20, 2010 2
  • 3. Quick take Bombay Dyeing Scenario Analysis Best case: We retain our base case pricing assumption (5% increase yoy from FY2012 onwards), and assumed an 8-year execution pipeline. Further, we expect recovery in the manufacturing business at a faster pace and thereby valuing it at 1x its assets. This gives an NAV of `1,480/share (including `224/share for its manufacturing segment) Base case: We have factored in 5% price escalation from FY2012 onwards in the construction, capital and rental values for the Spring Mill and Worli Mill projects. We have assumed that Bombay Dyeing will develop the projects entirely by FY2021. This gives an NAV of `1,052/share (including `112/share for its manufacturing segment, valuing it at 0.5x its assets). Worst case: We have assumed 10% correction in the rental and capital values in FY2012, 0% in FY2013 and 5% increase from FY2014 onwards. We have assumed a two-year delay in complete execution pipeline from the Base case scenario. We have assigned zero value to its manufacturing business. This gives an NAV of `554/share. Exhibit 3: Scenario Analysis Assumptions Best case Base case Worst case Residential pricing in FY2011 Spring mill, Dadar 25,000 20,000 20,000 Worli mill 30,000 25,000 25,000 Commercial rentals Spring mill, Dadar 125 125 125 Worli mill 150 150 150 Increase in rental and capital values from FY12 onwards (%) 5 5 (10) Execution of entire 2 properties FY19E FY21E FY23E Manufacturing business valuation 1.0x its assets 0.5x its assets Zero value 1-yr forward NAV 1,480 1,052 554 Source: Angel Research October 20, 2010 3
  • 4. Quick take Bombay Dyeing Profit & Loss Statement (Standalone) Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 Gross sales 509 998 1,368 1,699 Less: Excise duty 4 25 44 46 Net Sales 505 973 1,324 1,652 Other operating income - - - - Total operating income 505 973 1,324 1,652 % chg - 92.6 36.1 24.8 Total Expenditure (431) (902) (1,323) (1,395) Cost of construction incl land costs (1) (75) (88) (196) Other Mfg costs (315) (667) (831) (834) Personnel (38) (35) (51) (50) Other (77) (125) (353) (316) EBITDA 74 71 0.8 257 % chg - (4.3) (98.9) 32,041.2 (% of Net Sales) 14.7 7.3 0.1 15.6 Depreciation & Amortisation (17) (35) (56) (60) EBIT 57 36 (55) 198 % chg - (37.1) - (459.7) (% of Net Sales) 11.3 3.7 (4.1) 12.0 Interest & other Charges (32) (73) (187) (207) Other Income 27 47 50 33 (% of PBT) 51.8 520.9 (26.1) 141.8 Recurring PBT 52 9 (192) 24 % chg - (82.9) - (112.3) Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) (12) 9 (2) (1) PBT (reported) 40 18 (194) 22 Tax (4) (1) (1) (4) (% of PBT) 11.1 7.4 (0.5) 17.0 PAT (reported) 36 17 (195) 18 Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - PAT after MI (reported) 36 17 (195) 18 ADJ. PAT 48 8 (193) 20 % chg - (84.1) - - (% of Net Sales) 9.5 0.8 (14.5) 1.2 Basic EPS (`) 9.3 4.3 (50.4) 4.8 Fully Diluted EPS (`) 8.9 4.1 (48.0) 4.5 % chg - (53.6) - - October 20, 2010 4
  • 5. Quick take Bombay Dyeing Balance Sheet (Standalone) Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 39 39 39 39 Warrants/Share App. Money - 12 - - Reserves& Surplus 364 357 332 172 Shareholder’s Funds 403 408 370 210 Minority Interest - - - - Total Loans 1,052 1,413 1,711 1,775 Deferred Tax Liability 2 - - - Total Liabilities 1,457 1,821 2,081 1,985 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 655 1,060 1,160 1,183 Less: Acc. Depreciation 513 124 179 231 Net Block 142 937 981 952 Capital Work-in-Progress 736 304 219 208 Goodwill - - - - Investments 154 127 60 60 Current Assets 661 751 1,167 1,092 Cash 36 54 124 34 Loans & Advances 199 267 253 278 Other 426 430 791 779 Current liabilities 302 300 347 327 Net Current Assets 359 451 820 765 Mis. Exp. not written off 67 3 1 - Total Assets 1,457 1,821 2,081 1,985 October 20, 2010 5
  • 6. Quick take Bombay Dyeing Cash Flow Statement (Standalone) Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 Profit before tax 40 18 (194) 22 Depreciation 17 35 56 60 Other Adjustments (48) 33 199 207 Change in Working Capital 7 (20) (47) (201) Less: Direct taxes paid (6) (11) (5) (13) Cash Flow from Operations 11 55 9 75 Inc./ (Dec.) in Fixed Assets (455) (279) (80) (15) Inc./ (Dec.) in Investments 18 31 70 0 Other income 23 (5) 8 2 Cash Flow from Investing (413) (252) (2) (12) Issue of Equity/Sh appl. Money 0 12 - - Inc./(Dec.) in loans 494 359 270 60 Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (22) (23) (16) (5) Others (66) (134) (191) (207) Cash Flow from Financing 406 214 63 (152) Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 3 18 70 (90) Opening Cash balances 33 36 54 124 Closing Cash balances 36 54 124 34 October 20, 2010 6
  • 7. Quick take Bombay Dyeing Key Ratios Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 67.1 144.5 - 130.8 P/CEPS 47.4 48.6 - 32.5 P/BV 6.0 5.9 6.5 11.5 Dividend yield (%) 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.4 EV/Sales 6.8 3.9 3.0 2.5 EV/EBITDA 46.1 52.9 4,996.4 16.1 EV / Total Assets 2.4 2.1 1.9 2.1 Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) 9.3 4.3 (50.4) 4.8 EPS (fully diluted) 8.9 4.1 (48.0) 4.5 Cash EPS 13.2 12.9 (34.3) 19.2 DPS 4.8 3.3 1.0 2.4 Book Value 104 106 96 54 Dupont Analysis EBIT margin 11.3 3.7 (4.1) 12.0 Tax retention ratio 88.9 92.6 100.5 83.0 Asset turnover (x) 35.6 55.1 67.6 84.7 ROIC (Post-tax) 3.6 1.9 (2.8) 8.4 Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 3.5 5.5 12.0 9.9 Leverage (x) 2.0 2.9 3.8 5.7 Operating ROE 3.7 (8.8) (59.0) (0.1) Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) 4.7 2.2 (2.8) 9.7 Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 13.3 2.8 (3.3) 11.3 ROE 9.2 4.1 (50.0) 6.3 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.4 Inventory / Sales (days) 139 59 72 58 Receivables (days) 148 101 95 115 Payables (days) 115 92 60 48 Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days) 389 248 240 232 Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity 2.5 3.3 4.3 8.3 Net debt to EBITDA 13.7 19.1 1,984.1 6.8 Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest) 1.8 0.5 (0.3) 1.0 October 20, 2010 7
  • 8. Quick take Bombay Dyeing Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Disclosure of Interest Statement Bombay Dyeing 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock Yes 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%) October 20, 2010 8
  • 9. Quick take Bombay Dyeing Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel: (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Research Team Fundamental: Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical sarabjit@angelbroking.com Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com Vaishali Jajoo Automobile vaishali.jajoo@angelbroking.com Shailesh Kanani Infrastructure, Real Estate shailesh.kanani@angelbroking.com Anand Shah FMCG, Media anand.shah@angelbroking.com Deepak Pareek Oil & Gas deepak.pareek@angelbroking.com Sushant Dalmia Pharmaceutical sushant.dalmia@angelbroking.com Rupesh Sankhe Cement, Power rupeshd.sankhe@angelbroking.com Param Desai Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping paramv.desai@angelbroking.com Sageraj Bariya Fertiliser, Mid-cap sageraj.bariya@angelbroking.com Paresh Jain Metals & Mining pareshn.jain@angelbroking.com Amit Rane Banking amitn.rane@angelbroking.com John Perinchery Capital Goods john.perinchery@angelbroking.com Srishti Anand IT, Telecom srishti.anand@angelbroking.com Jai Sharda Mid-cap jai.sharda@angelbroking.com Sharan Lillaney Mid-cap sharanb.lillaney@angelbroking.com Naitik Mody Mid-cap naitiky.mody@angelbroking.com Amit Vora Research Associate (Oil & Gas) amit.vora@angelbroking.com V Srinivasan Research Associate (Cement, Power) v.srinivasan@angelbroking.com Mihir Salot Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) mihirr.salot@angelbroking.com Chitrangda Kapur Research Associate (FMCG, Media) chitrangdar.kapur@angelbroking.com Pooja Jain Research Associate (Metals & Mining) pooja.j@angelbroking.com Yaresh Kothari Research Associate (Automobile) yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com Shrinivas Bhutda Research Associate (Banking) shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com Sreekanth P.V.S Research Associate (FMCG, Media) sreekanth.s@angelbroking.com Hemang Thaker Research Associate (Capital Goods) hemang.thaker@angelbroking.com Nitin Arora Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) nitin.arora@angelbroking.com Technicals: Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst shardul.kulkarni@angelbroking.com Mileen Vasudeo Technical Analyst vasudeo.kamalakant@angelbroking.com Derivatives: Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives siddarth.bhamre@angelbroking.com Jaya Agarwal Derivative Analyst jaya.agarwal@angelbroking.com Institutional Sales Team: Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales mayuresh.joshi@angelbroking.com Abhimanyu Sofat AVP - Institutional Sales abhimanyu.sofat@angelbroking.com Nitesh Jalan Sr. Manager niteshk.jalan@angelbroking.com Pranav Modi Sr. Manager pranavs.modi@angelbroking.com Sandeep Jangir Sr. Manager sandeepp.jangir@angelbroking.com Ganesh Iyer Sr. Manager ganeshb.Iyer@angelbroking.com Jay Harsora Sr. Dealer jayr.harsora@angelbroking.com Meenakshi Chavan Dealer meenakshis.chavan@angelbroking.com Gaurang Tisani Dealer gaurangp.tisani@angelbroking.com Production Team: Bharathi Shetty Research Editor bharathi.shetty@angelbroking.com Simran Kaur Research Editor simran.kaur@angelbroking.com Bharat Patil Production bharat.patil@angelbroking.com Dilip Patel Production dilipm.patel@angelbroking.com Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 October 20, 2010 9