This document discusses future trends and opportunities in mobile innovation. It provides 10 tricks for succeeding in mobile, including: (1) Innovate where it matters by focusing on key trends, (2) Experiment and start even if most startups fail, and (3) Lower user friction by building towards customers' needs. It also examines shifts in the balance of power to experience platforms and cloud computing. Emerging areas like augmented reality, sensors, and identity/privacy are tipped as possible mobile 3.0 inflection points.

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Future mobile innovations....
@pgolding
The Big M - Bath, 21st March
http://wirelesswanders.com Copyright Paul Golding, 2011

2. W(ho)TF is Paul G? - He’s from the “future” 2
21st year in mobile (Indie for 14)
Surfing the bleeding edge...
16 patents (GSM chipsets)
Founded mobile apps ISV in 1996
PhD research mobile AR
In...Europe, Asia, Africa, Middle
East, N. Am, LatAm
Chief Apps Architect Motorola
Advised €10K-€10B companies
Mentor @ SpringBoard
“Intrapreneur” @ O2’s “The Lab”
Founded O2 Incubator

3. Whose future? 3
Whose future?
Your “developer”
future...
Open agenda:
Two of my kids at MWC 2011:
Android developers, ages 11,13

4. Which future? 4
$
2011 2014
Innovation lessons, trends & tricks
“skating to where the puck ($) will go”
sorry - no holodeck predictions this time...

5. Where is the future? 5
“The future has already arrived.
It's just not evenly distributed yet.”
William Gibson
1997 2002 2003 2008 2010
Being first is often a bad idea...
Trick #1 Be first to win, not to market!
tip: copy something else that appears to work;
do it better! analyse case studies! project forward!

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BUT...Innovation dilemma
“fish don’t know water exists...
until beached”
Marshall McLuhan

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BUT...
“fish don’t know water exists...
until beached”
Marshall McLuhan
thought we now we can’t do
needed this... without this...
Trick #2 - Experiment! Start!
tip: ROI of doing nothing is nothing - most start-ups fail because they never started!

8. Lower the friction as much as possible... 8
1 million?
Source: Crossing the Chasm
(Geoffrey Moore)
Trick #3 - Code towards customers (users)!
1. Reduce operational friction - Run fast as possible - fail fast, pivot often
tip: read Steve Blank, Eric Ries, Dave McLure, Osterwalder
And.. 2. lower user friction -->

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Trick #4 - Don’t code the future into the product
a “whole product” (e.g. Blackberry not POP3) does not mean every feature
constantly test (early) your hypotheses! (Stealth = scared.)
build the future into the process, not product, and instrument early

10. Recognise when and where to innovate... 10
Source: Dealing with Darwin
(Geoffrey Moore)
Trick #5 - Innovate where it matters!

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Trick #6 - Master the whole apps journey
Analytics,
retailing, chomp
marketing, flurry
support, allify
CRM...
Conceive Choose Develop Deliver Engage
Product Platforms Product Product Market
tip: BIG opportunity in the applications ecosystem itself
tip: Become app analysts & developers
tip: follow Ahonen, Asymco, VisionMobile, Nielsen blog,
other devs...

12. Where are we headed with devices? 12
“freedom”
Utility Experience
“freedom”
Post PC?
Local Cloud
“freedom”
Source: Asymco
interesting side-note:
42% tablets shared by their owners

13. Shift in the balance of power... 13
2007 2011 2014
Experience
apps apps
Platforms
Web Web apps
OS OS Web
comms comms OS
comms
Telco OEM Internet

14. The emergent mobile ecosystem... 14
Right-time Personalized
Computer Computer
Social Status Wallet Context Multi-UX Interests Apps
“Experience Platforms”
HTML5 Android iOS ?
Right-time Augmented Web
SaaS PaaS
“The Web Operating System”
Real-time bus “Social Stack” Identity/oAuth Linked Data Payments
IaaS CaaS NaaS
BIG DATA Cloud Platforms Telco

15. Developer ecosystem opportunities... 15
Facebook
Apple?
gnip XaaS O2?
John Lewis?
IMified
SaaS chargify
New entrants
apigee flurry
allify
Nodester mSaaS apigee
Duostack New entrants
PaaS Heroku
Force.com connFu
dotcloud Tropo
mPaaS Corona/Appcelerator?
AWS
New entrants
IaaS Rightscale
Rackspace
Jajah
CaaS Skype/Viber
NaaS BlueVia
New entrants

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global voice mash-ups platform
“re-inventing” comms

17. Voice still has a BIG future.... 17
2010 2012
Closed voice Open voice
plus “Voice as content” (2014)

18. Platform domination... 18
Trick #7 - know when you’re really a platform
Advertisers
Developers
OEMS
Operators
tip: still need a “killer” app tip: read Spolsky,
(orthogonal to the market) Hagiu, Eisenmann
Users

19. Business model enablers versus tech enablers... 19
App stores v HTML5
Identity v oAuth
Check-in v Location
Open platform v Open source
Bit.ly v Redirects
Android v MeeGo
Analytics v “No-SQL”
Trick #8 - Think biz models, not technology
tip: try Osterwalder’s biz model canvas

20. Possible Mobile 3.0 tipping points (TP)... 20
Apps
Hardware,
OS Experience
Platforms Hardware,
Post PC Sensor AR,
Devices Proliferation Health
Network,
LTE Key trends
Abundant “Mobile 3.0” Cloud
Access Computing
when mobile really is first
“Right-time” Seamless PaaS
Real-time web Computing SaaS
Identity,
& meta-data
Privacy
abundance of developer opportunities throughout the ecosystem

21. Future of start-ups... 21
Taken from Steve Blank - SXSW 2011
2011 - 2014
Rules for the New Bubble
• Founders/VC’s can engineer financial transactions
• Transactions economically or usage accretive
• Still require Agile, Cust Dev & Bus Model
• Add: Adoption, Order of Battle and Visibility
Trick #9 - Leverage the start-up ecosystem
tip: go read the whole presentation http://slidesha.re/gqa9KG
tip: get a really good mentor or join an incubator

22. Future of work... 22
Trick #10 - Start the future today!

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Thank You
Paul Golding
paul@wirelesswanders.com
wirelesswanders.com
@pgolding
(C) Copyright Paul Golding, 2010