The document discusses the need for a new paradigm in how we think about and build products for the Internet of Things, as relying only on existing models like mobile apps will not be sustainable as more smart devices proliferate. It proposes moving to a model focused on discovery of nearby smart devices, controlling them through simple interactions like web pages rather than apps, and coordinating data and functionality across devices through open standards. The document argues this approach will be needed to truly realize the potential of the Internet of Things.

1. Beyond Mobile, Beyond Web
The Internet of things needs our help
IA Summit 5 April 2013
@scottjenson
jenson.org

2. ?
Speed
Size
Cost
How do we, as a team, think and build new products? We are all interested about the future. We even come to conference like this to try to answer that
question, “What’s happening next?”
When we reflect on how far we’ve come, most people just focus on the holy trinity of speed size and cost. But these are *safe* predictions, of course things will
get smaller/faster/cheaper. That is incremental innovation and really are just extending the current paradigm.

3. Comfort vs Risk
What’s happening next? Easy, it’s the iWatch! Soon to be followed by the iRing and the iTieTack.
The reason people are so excited about the iWatch is that it makes so much sense (from a certain naive perspective) We can all see it, it’s not a huge leap so
we inherently like it. Of course, the iWatch, if it ever comes, will likely be fine product. We just need to be clear: it’s a fairly conservative extension of an existing
paradigm.
The really big changes are very hard to see. Most stare you right in the face as you walk by. A creative idea takes an equally creative person to understand it.
This is why people are so surprisingly conservative when it comes to innovation. While I was at frog, it became painfully clear that much of my job was coaching
as our clients all wanted innovation but at the same time, they were deathly afraid of risk. It’s a shocking paradox isn’t it? But it explains why, when thinking of the
future, we tend to fall back on known, existing patterns

4. Default Thinking
I’ve written about this before, in a few articles and a book chapter about how throughout the history of technology we never take a shiny new technology and
run with it. We almost always turn around and use it for an something were doing yesterday. We evaluate tomorrow’s technologies by yesterday’s tasks. A classic
example is how people initially read radio plays on TV. Of course, they quickly figured it out but that’s how we humans work: we stumble our way into
innovation. It’s why designers like to prototype, we don't know what we don’t know.

5. We look at the present
through a rearview mirror;
we march backwards into
the future
Marshall McLuhan
This is so beautifully phrased and explains why we get technology predictions so horribly wrong. We predict by looking backwards, we don’t appreciate how we
almost always stumble our way into the future.

6. So how have we been stumbling? What’s actually been happening recently? We haven’t seen the iWatch (yet) so what has been showing up in the mean time?

7. Things like the Nest come along

8. and the Twine hobbyist sensor, and GloCap, a smart pill bottle the calls you when you forget to take your pills, and about a dozen smart light bulb projects on
kickstarter. These are wacky crazy new directions that don’t fit with our current understanding.

9. But if you throw in the idea of a smart city, things really start to get confusing. We are in a situation where the world is running ahead of our ability to
conceptualize what is happening. The iWatch is a fine product that is extending and old model. It doesn’t help us make sense of this crazy explosion of new-
ness.

10. It took us more than 20 years, but computing has
finally moved from conserving resources ingeniously
to squandering them creatively.
David Gelernter

11. Gartner Hype Cycle
How many of you have heard of the Gartner Hype Cycle? It’s got it’s pros and cons but it’s a fairly entertaining look at how we explore and use any new
technology.

12. Gartner Hype Cycle
Technology
Trigger

13. Gartner Hype Cycle
Peak of
inflated
expectations

14. Gartner Hype Cycle
Trough of
disillusionment

15. Gartner Hype Cycle
Slope of
enlightenment

16. Gartner Hype Cycle
Plateau of
productivity

17. Gartner Hype Cycle
3D Printing
Internet of
Things App Stores
Speech
Recognition
Quantum
Computing
Virtual Worlds
And here are examples along this curve: Quantum Computing, 3d Printing, Virtual Worlds, speech recognition
Where do you think the internet of things is on this graph? It's still a trigger technology, Keep in mind this was their 2012 report… But I'd claim that the IoT is
very quickly rising right into 3D printing territory. The reason is simple, there is another technology that it is drafting behind: App Stores. It is the success of Smart
Phone in general, and apps specifically that is fueling this boom. It is allowing new devices to be created even easier and faster.
But there is a huge risk here. It's default thinking all over. We're taking the amazing crazy potential of the IoT and tying it to a technology that is quickly heading to
trough territory...

18. Why mobile apps must die?
It’s why I wrote Mobile Apps must die! People thought it was a rant about web vs native apps but that wasn’t it at all.
http://jenson.org/mobile-apps-must-die/

19. Apps just can’t be the only tool in the tool kit. Are we really going to have an app for every store we go to, every product we buy and every new interactive
device that is coming our way?
How many of you, in the last few weeks, have gone through your phones, deleting the old apps you’re not using any more? It’s a rhetorical question, we ALL do
this! We are gardening our phones. But why? We’re rational beings, what is the motivation? It’s simple, dead apps get in the way. Have any of you walked into a
store and seen a sign ‘We’re in the app store!” and just shrugged, you couldn’t be bothered? At frog, that type of user pain/apathy was design gold, you kill for that
type of insight but here we are experiencing this nearly every day.
There is a ‘thin crust of effort’ that is forming around apps, there is a certain amount of pain that is involved in using them today! Imagine when we are
surrounded by 100s of more smart devices, it’s clearly unsustainable.

20. Value > Pain
There is a subtle force at work here, it’s not always about technology, sometimes it’s also about design. There is a basic design axiom that is at the heart of
almost all design: Value must be greater than pain. Let me give you an example. In the 1990’s The UX for SMS was *horrible* but it’s value was so high that
people persevered

21. Value > Pain
At about the same time Google was able to reduce the page weight of google.com and got it to load 4 TENTHS of second faster. It was to the pixel, exactly the
same. What happened, usage went up multiple percentage points (That’s actually a REALLY big deal for Google) In this case Value was identical but just by
reducing pain, the product was improved.

22. Triumph of the Mundane
Value > Pain
When pain goes to zero, value can go to zero as well. I call this Triumph of the Mundane as it’s the LITTLE things that are going to have value, as long as we can
make them very very easy to use.
But when talking about the internet of things we are clearly into a full blow hype bubble. You just have to read any article about it and people are promising
crazy things. We’ve seen this movie before: Over promising, under delivery, and big disillusionment.

23. Coordination
Control
Discovery
Every time I talk about the IoT I get questions that show that people really, deeply don’t understand what it is about. My favorite example is the smart toaster,
the derogatory poster child of the IoT. When people say that “I don’t want apps on my toaster” I want to shake them by their shoulders! “That’s *your* old
paradigm, not mine. It’s too easy to criticize a new technology using old concepts. Smart devices are not about apps! They are about 3 basic layers of
functionality: Discovery, Control, and Coordination
Discovery: Finding my devices nearby. Most companies would kill for just this basic feature. Depending on how clever they are with the URL it can span goofy
marketing page (boring) to SPIME like deep interaction with my device history.
Control: A small increment in cost lets me control the device. This same URL model has moved us from web site directly to Nest because now I’m talking to
MY device. While prices are still high, finding the right balance will be tricky but as the costs fall, the choice will become trivial. This needs ‘another Apple’ to take
the chance because once it becomes clear it is possible, EVERYONE will want to jump into the pool.
Coordination: This is the hard one as it involves so much cooperation. I love the overall vision but it will take time for companies to get on board with enough
standards to make this happen. Think about today. I can hardly get Mint.com to access all of financial records, it’s constantly breaking down. We expect massive
data and control settings to work across every world wide manufacturer?
My point is that we need to start with the first two: Discovery and Control. They are very much within our reach and offer significant value.

24. Bears ....Big Screen + General OS
Bats .... focused function device
Bees ....only data
As a designer, I feel strongly there is power in words. The IoT is such a messy ball of stuff that it’s hard to talk about it. It’s useful to break it up into three basic
groups: Bears, bats, and bees.
http://jenson.org/of-bears-bats-and-bees-making-sense-of-the-internet-of-things/

25. Bats .... focused function device
Both Bears and Bees are somewhat old school. What they are trying to do is fairly well established. What I find most interesting are Bats as they are breaking
new ground and creating not only new product concepts but how to even things about functionality.

26. Just in Time
Interaction
There is a wide range of devices from the nest down to bus stops (which are just a steel pole stuck in concrete) There is a continuum of device from
standalone processor to a tagged object that points to a web page. But, from a design point of view, they are all the same: they want your attention and you
need to interact with them. The problem is that we are still using our old school paradigm of ‘native apps’ to deal with them. While I might be fine with an app
for my Nest, am i going to download an app for ever store I enter, every smart poster to see, or every smart museum I enter? As we move to single use
experiences, apps become hopelessly quaint.

27. Insanity is doing exactly the same thing....
and expecting a different result.
Einstein

28. Paradigm
Shift
We need a paradigm shift: to see things in a new way. Thomas Kuhn talked about how shifts occur in the scientific community. Before every great shift was a
‘model crisis’ where things started to fray at the edge. Nothing dramatic, the old guard always yells relax, thing are fine and the new blood keeps pushing for
something new. It’s a classic tension.

29. Model Paradigm
Revolution Change
Kuhn Cycle Normal
Model Science
Crisis
Model Drift
The Structure of Scientific Revolutions

30. What is our model crisis?
Software Buy Install Reuse
What is our model crisis? We are moving from a model based on Software, where we buy, install and reuse

31. What is our model crisis?
Software Buy Install Reuse
Experience Discover Use Forget
To one based on experience where we discover, use and forget.
When I buy a smart toaster I don’t want to buy the software, that is a meaningless concept

32. Discovery Control Coordination
QRCode RESTful API Data standards
NFC Hardware costs Storage standards
Wireless Standards Device vs Service
Bluetooth Protocols
Wifi
Battery life?
Security?

33. Perspective is worth 80 IQ points
Alan Kay
We need to stop thinking of the mobile web as a shoehorned version of the desktop web. The mobile web is going to go where the desktop and native apps
can never go....

34. Silos are counter productive

35. Remember these guys? They were the ‘pre-web’, for a while, they were much better than the web. They competed, tried to encourage people to come to
them. The web, at least initially, was quite bad, but it eventually overran all of them for the simple reason of scope and reach: they all couldn’t have everything.

36. Yet this is what we’re doing today: we’re getting locked into silos of devices and content. If an open solution gets started, it will almost certainly be worse at
first, but it will structurally encourage a much better, broader approach. It will blow past these silos over time.

37. Malcom McLean
Do you know this guy? He is my hero! He single handedly invented the container ship business and then, realizing that it would only work if the world
standardized, he GAVE AWAY ALL OF THIS PATENTS! Of course this was very enlightened self interest as his company reaped the benefit of this but it was
still an overall plus for the world. He was voted ‘Maritime Man of the Century!” for his work.

38. Internet ≠ Web
Open Closed
Expansive Constricted
The internet is not the same as the web. The internet is build on basic open standards like DNS and HTTP. The web, while basically open, has quickly
encrouaged silo apps like amazon/facebook that try to keep you there, doing everything within that world.

39. All my data, in one place
I chuckle whenever people talk about ‘THE cloud’. That’s not quite right...

40. ...it’s really more about a sky FULL of separate clouds

41. API
We need to work towards a model where we have a single API that connects to OUR cloud. It’s not the devices’ data, its MY data. There are some great
companies that are exploring the personal storage space that are beginning to make this happen. I strongly suggest you check out Spark Devices as they are
building this model correctly. You can use their servers to store data but you can easily choose someone else.

42. Google your room

43. Next
‘Google’
We need an open source ‘Growl’ like app that finds all devices nearby and presents them to me. Eventually, this service will need a cloud component to rank it
but this too should be open so that Google, Bing, etc can all play. Indexing the physical world is the next google

44. Toyota Prius
68
Maria Jenson
Musée du Louvre
T-Mobile Clear
Bang & Olufson
Notifications Justine
Crêpes
Notifications from David
New SMS
Notifications
New SMS from David
New SMS from David
3G
2:12 PM
Here is a quick example but it applies just as much to Google Glass as to Smart phones, or even smart TVs... But if it were to find something smart nearby, it
just lists it in the notification bar. When I click on it, it just shows a browser ‘chrome’ (with no browser overhead) This is fast, quick and involves no app
download. Yes, the mobile web isn’t as functional as native apps but we’re talking about simple devices, we don’t need the power of WorldOfWarcraft to turn
on a light bulb. HTML5 is more than enough for the vast majority of needs. I’m not against native apps, I just pro instant-interaction. Anything that allows that is a
good step forward.

45. 68
Musée du Louvre
Crêpes Justine
Notifications
New SMS from David
3G
2:12 PM
T-Mobile Clear
Nearby
Toyota Prius
Maria Jenson
Bang & Olufson
Notifications
New SMS from David
Here is a quick example but it applies just as much to Google Glass as to Smart phones, or even smart TVs... But if it were to find something smart nearby, it
just lists it in the notification bar. When I click on it, it just shows a browser ‘chrome’ (with no browser overhead) This is fast, quick and involves no app
download. Yes, the mobile web isn’t as functional as native apps but we’re talking about simple devices, we don’t need the power of WorldOfWarcraft to turn
on a light bulb. HTML5 is more than enough for the vast majority of needs. I’m not against native apps, I just pro instant-interaction. Anything that allows that is a
good step forward.

46. 3G
2:12 PM
JIT ecosystem
But this is a bit naive, I’ll admit but what I’m ultimate asking for is a just in time ecosystem where many smart displays are looking for many more smart
objects.

47. Silos are counter productive
....and so very old school
All your data
Google your room
The overall message here is that the old school model of monolithic ecosystems is crumbling. The internet of things is just like the internet: by it’s very definition
it covers everything, there is no way a single company can encompass that. At the same time, we are an economy that loves the big players and we look to
them to lead the way.
What is more likely to happen is that kickstarter/indigogo will create a range of crazy and a bit weird products that, like the early web, will NOT be as good as
the siloed systems. However, as they crowdsource and grow, they will surprise and grow from the ground up, again, must like the original web did. Someone is
going to solve these two problems in a way that is good enough to kick start this movement.

48. In thinking about the future, it’s easy to be blinded the the giants of the day. The iPhone is great, it was a major step forward but it is not the model we need for
the internet of things. It still has a place, we just need to grow past it to a more flexibly and open model.

49. In thinking about the future, it’s easy to be blinded the the giants of the day. The iPhone is great, it was a major step forward but it is not the model we need for
the internet of things. It still has a place, we just need to grow past it to a more flexibly and open model.

50. Power to the people

51. scott@jenson.org
@scottjenson
jenson.org