The State of Climate Change Communications Paul Lussier #IPCCOslo

1. The State of Climate Change
Communications
Information
Deficit
Information
Surfeit
Data first: Give
enough information
and change will come
Drama first: Encourage
thinking and action
based on rhetorical
information and
emotional response
IPCC News
Coverage

3. Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the
Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850. In the
Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year
period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence).
UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis
*Pg 3, SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis by IPCC Working Group I
Contribution to AR5 (Page 3; Figure SPM.1b). http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf

4. Moving Towards a New
Paradigm
Information
Deficit
Information
Surfeit
Data first: Give
enough information
and change will come
VALUES
CONGRUENT
SCIENTIFICALLY
CORRECT
COMMUNICATIONS Drama first: Encourage
thinking and action
based on rhetorical
information and
emotional response

5. RECOMMENDATIONSFormation / Projection / Reception

9. Why is carbon dioxide increasing so
much?

10. How does increasing carbon dioxide impact
the choices a consumer makes?

11. How does increasing carbon dioxide impact
the choices a supplier makes?

12. Where will we run?

13. What will we grow?

14. Will we still get along?

15. Will I be free?

16. Will I be safe?

17. Will my home still even be here?

18. Will my wine taste the same?

19. What will this new world look like?

20. How much worse will the shoveling get?

22. SCIENCE MEDIA POLICY BUSINESS BELIEF
Accurate Dramatic Realistic Actionable Archetypal
Qualifying Engaging Speaks to Need Speaks to Revenue Circumscribing
Highlight
Uncertainty
Highlight Certainty Highlight Risk Highlight Benefit Highlight certainty
Cautious Certain Careful Candid Anthemic
Build Case for
Further Research
Build Audience and
Interest
Build Constituency Build Business Case Build following
Objective Persuasive Popular Visionary Persuasive
Generate
Understanding
Generate Ratings
Generate
Momentum
Generate
Shareholder
Interest
Generate action
Steer Clear of Policy
Commit to a
Conclusion
Commit to Policy
Recommendations
Build Science-Based
Business Scenarios
Community Ethos
Defining Language and Narrative Determinants
Science and Other Sectors

23. Humanistic Communications Narrative Hierarchy
Food & WaterGlobal Health
Resiliency
Media
Ethics
Economics
Science Anti-Science
Religion Homeland Security
Self-Fulfillment
Safety
Esteem
Social
Physiological

24. Source: Ken Wilber, Wicked
Problems

26. Four different ways to
connect one hundred people.
Each circle (“node”)
represents a person, and each
line (“tie”) a relationship
between two people. Lines
with arrows indicate a
directed relation- ship; in the
telephone tree, one person
calls another. Otherwise, ties
are mutual: in the bucket
brigade, full and empty
buckets travel in both
directions; in military squads,
the connections between the
sol- diers are all two-way.
Connected
Bucket Brigades, Telephone Trees and Military Squads

27. Research Action Cycle!
!
Reading(Note:(See(the(Appendix(for(narrative(flow(charts(that(correspond(with(each(labeled(

28. The deepest purpose of all
communication: to
exchangeideas and informao,
to heaand be heard, to create
understanding and foster
connection among us (some
would extend the circle beyond
humans), and, ultimately, to
ensure survival.

29. Upstream Communications
Substantial facilitation of communications went
on to prepare for the floods, even weather
forecasters were trained in the basic science
and worked to warn residents quite early on
about the link to climate change and the need
for long-term strategies as a result. The
message was that the floods were not going
away and werent anomalous weather events.
Additionally, communications workshops were
facilitated across all relevant sectors…
 Religion
 Economics
 Politics
 International
Relations
 Science and
Technology
 Engineering
 Sociology
 Psychology
 Community Health
 Risk Management
Etc….

30. Sketch of website
Aaron will have this by Friday afternoon cuz
he’s a superstar
YES
Patagonia: Vote the Environment

33. Ecology:(Afforesta0on(and(Reforesta0on(
Economic'Narra+ves' Policy'Narra+ves' Social'Co4Benefit'Narra+ves'
Growth'
Wood'products/
logging'
Government'
Benefits' Na+onal'Health'
Na+onal'
Security'
Reclama+on'
Beau+fica+on'
Carbon'Credits'
Farmers'Construc+on'
Hunger'
Reduc+on'
Water'
Protec+on'
Deser+fica+on'
Preven+on''
NGOs'
Conserva+on'
groups'
Soil'
rehabilita+on/'
management'
Ecosystem'
services'
Forest'
Conserva+on'
Environme
ntalists'
Local'&'
organic'
foods'
Mining'
industry'
Agroforestry'
US'Forest'
Service'
Urban'Forests'
Ci+es'
Community'
Leveraging'
Governments'(China'
and'Africa)'
At'risk'
Ci+zens'
Landowners'
Religious'
Adherence'
Educa+on'
Energy'
companies'
Biochar as Strategy
•
Biochar(as(a(CDR(strategy(
Economic'Narra+ve' Policy'Narra+ve' Environmental'Narra+ve'
Scale'
Carbon'
stability'
Research'
Investment'
Regula+on/'
Cer+fica+on'
Carbon'credits'
Reclama+on'
Sustainable'
Produc+on'
Agricultural'
Commodity'
Farmers'
Consumer'
Awareness'
Produc+on'
Equipment'
manufacturing'
Demonstrated'
economic'
viability'
Biochar'
producers'
Banks/lenders'Scien+fic'
community'
Public'
u+liza+on/'
promo+on'
Land'
restora+on/
landscaping'
Municipali+es'
Green'
building'&'
Sustainable'
Forestry/'
Agriculture'
'
LEED
/FSC'USDA'
Incen+ves'
Quan+fy'
Carbon'
Sequestra+on'
American'
Carbon'
Registry'
Conserva+on'
groups'
Soil'
remedia+on/'
management'
Ecosystem'
services'
Sustainable'
feedstocks'
Other'
biomass'
producers'
Local'&'
organic'
foods'
Mining'
industry'
Soil'fer+lity'
Outreach'
Agribusiness'
Famers/'
Ranchers'
Foresters'
Bioenergy''
co4produc+on'
Hea+ng/'
drying'
Electricity'
Bio4oil'
Regulators'

34. ARA-SUL, 2000
Mozambique Floods
March 2000 -2010

35. PREPARE

36. Main Pont
It’s not just how to communicate.
It’s about what to communicate and how those arenas
intersect.
POSITION

37. People survived by
moving up into trees
and tying themselves
up there, some were
stuck there for days or
even weeks. They
drank the contaminated
waters that flowed by,
grabbing crops or
anything else they
could eat.
PROVIDE

38. PROD
PRODUCE

39. Main Pont
PREVIEW

40. Main Pont
It’s not just how to communicate.
It’s about what to communicate and how those arenas
intersect.

41. AP, 2000
BBC, 2000
Global Media Coverage

42. • 2007 - two days of advance warning to evacuate
around 150,000 people, disbursed US$5 million
• 2008 - five days of warning to evacuate 150,000
people, disbursed US$3 million
• 2011 - ten days of warning, disbursed less than
US$1 million
Notable Improvement Over Time
Source: Reuters, 2013
World Bank, GFDRR
(2014)

43. US Air Force, 2000
Global Relief Effort

44. Mozambique National Institute for Disaster
Management Coordination Function
World Bank, GFDRR (2014)

45. Process of using communications to promote multi-
stakeholder engagement and drive on-the-ground
actions and outcomes
● Upstream communications can be used to
foster downstream outcomes
● Communications as part of the solution, not
communicating the solution
Upstream Communication Benefits

46. Upstream Communications
TakeAways
• Link sound science with beliefs and values
• Facilitate value-driven narratives

47. Possible IPCC Options:
• Bring together a network of multidisciplinary
scientists, NGOs, and other relevant
stakeholders.
• Act as a clearinghouse to processes and
translate scientific data and expertise into
actionable sustainability strategies.
• Facilitate science-based, action-oriented
communities, networks and working groups.