Climate change is impacting the global water cycle and leading to effects across many economic sectors and societies. Most documented adaptations relate to water, and water is central to adaptation, though effectiveness decreases with increased warming. Many mitigation measures have significant water footprints that must be managed to reduce impacts on water and food security. Knowledge gaps remain around transition pathways for the agricultural sector that balance mitigation, adaptation, and sustainable development.

1. [Axel Fassio/CIFOR_Flickr_CC BY-NC-ND / Unsplash]
10 December 2023
Food, agriculture, land, and water: Insights from AR6 and knowledge gaps for AR7
COP 28, IPCC Pavillion
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Aditi Mukherji a.mukherji@cigar.org

2. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Climate change has led to changes in all components of the water
cycle
Resulting in impacts (mostly negative) in almost all sectors of the
economy and society
Majority of the people in the Global South in climate exposed
occupations experience climate change through water.
Most (~60%) of all adaptations are in response to water related
hazards, and many adaptation are about using water to improve
livelihoods, e.g. irrigation
Most mitigation measures, including nature based ones, can have
high water footprint, yet rarely discussed

3. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
• More than 60% of documented
adaptation is related to water
• Positive water-related outcomes have
been documented in several
dimensions
• Water-related adaptation occurs
across sectors, in particular the
agricultural sector
Source: IPCC WGII Ch04 Figure 4.29
Water is central to
adaptation

4. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
• Water-related adaptation is
most effective up to 1.5°C
and effectiveness decreases
with increasing warming
• Residual impacts remain,
especially at higher levels of
warming
Adaptation becomes less
effective with more
warming
Source: IPCC WGII Ch04 Figure 4.29

5. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Mitigation (emissions reduction) and Carbon Dioxide
Removals (CDR) approaches and technologies can have
trade-offs with water and food security
“Many mitigation measures (and CDR
approaches and technologies) have
considerable water footprint (high confidence),
which must be managed in socially and
politically acceptable ways to reduce the water
intensity of mitigation while increasing
synergies with sustainable development
(medium evidence, high agreement)” WGII
Chapter 4

6. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Bio-Energy Crops
• Bio-energy can help limit global temperature rise by replacing
fossil fuels, but can double the global area and population living
under severe water stress compared to the current baseline
(Senthil Kumar, 2020)
• Bio-energy crops can significantly impact food prices via demand
for land and water (Fuhrman et al., 2020; Muratori et al., 2016).

7. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Afforestation and re-forestation
• Hugely popular tool of mitigation, with some very optimistic estimates saying
additional 0.9 billion ha of canopy cover in suitable locations could store 205 Gt
of carbon (Bastin et al., 2019)
• If done at inappropriate locations, or inappropriate species, then can lead to
trade-offs between land, bio-diversity, and water resources
• Global Assessments on Forest and Water reiterated “afforestation and
reforestation should be concentrated in water-abundant locations and where
transpiration can potentially be captured downwind as precipitation”. (IUFRO,
2018)
• Extensive BECCS and afforestation/reforestation deployment can alter the water
cycle at regional scales (high confidence)

8. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Pathways for transition: That’s where knowledge gaps are!
Five Pathw ays for Achieving Transition in Agri-Food Sector
PATHW AY 1 PATHW AY 2 PATHW AY 3 PATHW AY 4 PATHW AY 5
Reduce unsustainable
consum ption w here such
consum ption has harm ful
effects on health, clim ate, and
the environm ent
Increase production of
sustainable, healthy and
nutritious food, particularly in
LMICs, w ithout expanding
agriculture into new lands
Reduce dam age to natural
resources such as soil, w ater,
and biodiversity
Reduce em issions, either
absolute em issions or
em issions intensity w ith the
ultim ate aim of reducing
absolute em issions
Prioritise the needs and
interests of sm alholder
producers
Reduce fertiliser use by
im proving NUE in high use
areas
Increase production
through crop and livestock
breeding
Im prove NUE of fertilisers
allow ing less pollutants to
leach into w ater bodies
Im prove NUE and adoption
of low em issions fertilisers
Digital services e.g. clim ate
advisory and indexed based
insurance for sm allholder
producers
Reduce unsustainable
intake of ASF in HIC
contexts by partial
replacem ent w ith
alternative proteins
Increase production
through optim al application
of low em issions fertilisers
in areas of underuse
Reduce food w aste and
loss
Reduce m ethane em issions
from livestock sector; and
prom ote adoption of
alternative proteins
Increase productivity and
incom es through crop and
livestock breeding for
sm allholder farm ers
Reduce food w aste
Increase production
through crop breeding in
areas of low productivity
Use digital services
to aid all above
Reduce food w aste and
loss
Im prove resilience of
sm allholder production
system s by adoption of
agroecological and other
sustainable approaches
Prom ote sustainable
healthy diets w ith low
carbon footprint
Increase production
through clim ate-sm art
livestock practices and
agroecological and other
sustainable approaches
Im prove agricultural w ater
m anagem ent
Use digital services
to aid all above
Invest in social safety nets
for sm allholder producers
Use digital services
to aid all above
Reduce m ethane em issions
from rice paddy
https://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/131852

9. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
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