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10 December 2023
Food, agriculture, land, and water: Insights from AR6 and knowledge gaps for AR7
COP 28, IPCC Pavillion
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Aditi Mukherji a.mukherji@cigar.org
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Climate change has led to changes in all components of the water
cycle
Resulting in impacts (mostly negative) in almost all sectors of the
economy and society
Majority of the people in the Global South in climate exposed
occupations experience climate change through water.
Most (~60%) of all adaptations are in response to water related
hazards, and many adaptation are about using water to improve
livelihoods, e.g. irrigation
Most mitigation measures, including nature based ones, can have
high water footprint, yet rarely discussed
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
• More than 60% of documented
adaptation is related to water
• Positive water-related outcomes have
been documented in several
dimensions
• Water-related adaptation occurs
across sectors, in particular the
agricultural sector
Source: IPCC WGII Ch04 Figure 4.29
Water is central to
adaptation
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
• Water-related adaptation is
most effective up to 1.5°C
and effectiveness decreases
with increasing warming
• Residual impacts remain,
especially at higher levels of
warming
Adaptation becomes less
effective with more
warming
Source: IPCC WGII Ch04 Figure 4.29
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Mitigation (emissions reduction) and Carbon Dioxide
Removals (CDR) approaches and technologies can have
trade-offs with water and food security
“Many mitigation measures (and CDR
approaches and technologies) have
considerable water footprint (high confidence),
which must be managed in socially and
politically acceptable ways to reduce the water
intensity of mitigation while increasing
synergies with sustainable development
(medium evidence, high agreement)” WGII
Chapter 4
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Bio-Energy Crops
• Bio-energy can help limit global temperature rise by replacing
fossil fuels, but can double the global area and population living
under severe water stress compared to the current baseline
(Senthil Kumar, 2020)
• Bio-energy crops can significantly impact food prices via demand
for land and water (Fuhrman et al., 2020; Muratori et al., 2016).
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Afforestation and re-forestation
• Hugely popular tool of mitigation, with some very optimistic estimates saying
additional 0.9 billion ha of canopy cover in suitable locations could store 205 Gt
of carbon (Bastin et al., 2019)
• If done at inappropriate locations, or inappropriate species, then can lead to
trade-offs between land, bio-diversity, and water resources
• Global Assessments on Forest and Water reiterated “afforestation and
reforestation should be concentrated in water-abundant locations and where
transpiration can potentially be captured downwind as precipitation”. (IUFRO,
2018)
• Extensive BECCS and afforestation/reforestation deployment can alter the water
cycle at regional scales (high confidence)
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Pathways for transition: That’s where knowledge gaps are!
Five Pathw ays for Achieving Transition in Agri-Food Sector
PATHW AY 1 PATHW AY 2 PATHW AY 3 PATHW AY 4 PATHW AY 5
Reduce unsustainable
consum ption w here such
consum ption has harm ful
effects on health, clim ate, and
the environm ent
Increase production of
sustainable, healthy and
nutritious food, particularly in
LMICs, w ithout expanding
agriculture into new lands
Reduce dam age to natural
resources such as soil, w ater,
and biodiversity
Reduce em issions, either
absolute em issions or
em issions intensity w ith the
ultim ate aim of reducing
absolute em issions
Prioritise the needs and
interests of sm alholder
producers
Reduce fertiliser use by
im proving NUE in high use
areas
Increase production
through crop and livestock
breeding
Im prove NUE of fertilisers
allow ing less pollutants to
leach into w ater bodies
Im prove NUE and adoption
of low em issions fertilisers
Digital services e.g. clim ate
advisory and indexed based
insurance for sm allholder
producers
Reduce unsustainable
intake of ASF in HIC
contexts by partial
replacem ent w ith
alternative proteins
Increase production
through optim al application
of low em issions fertilisers
in areas of underuse
Reduce food w aste and
loss
Reduce m ethane em issions
from livestock sector; and
prom ote adoption of
alternative proteins
Increase productivity and
incom es through crop and
livestock breeding for
sm allholder farm ers
Reduce food w aste
Increase production
through crop breeding in
areas of low productivity
Use digital services
to aid all above
Reduce food w aste and
loss
Im prove resilience of
sm allholder production
system s by adoption of
agroecological and other
sustainable approaches
Prom ote sustainable
healthy diets w ith low
carbon footprint
Increase production
through clim ate-sm art
livestock practices and
agroecological and other
sustainable approaches
Im prove agricultural w ater
m anagem ent
Use digital services
to aid all above
Invest in social safety nets
for sm allholder producers
Use digital services
to aid all above
Reduce m ethane em issions
from rice paddy
https://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/131852
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
THANK YOU
@IPCC
www.ipcc.ch
IPCC Secretariat: ipcc-sec@wmo.int
IPCC Press Office: ipcc-media@wmo.int
@IPCC_CH
linkedin.com/company/ipcc
For More Information: Follow Us:
/
#IPCCReport

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Food, agriculture, land, and water: Insights from AR6 and knowledge gaps for AR7

  • 1. [Axel Fassio/CIFOR_Flickr_CC BY-NC-ND / Unsplash] 10 December 2023 Food, agriculture, land, and water: Insights from AR6 and knowledge gaps for AR7 COP 28, IPCC Pavillion SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Aditi Mukherji a.mukherji@cigar.org
  • 2. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Climate change has led to changes in all components of the water cycle Resulting in impacts (mostly negative) in almost all sectors of the economy and society Majority of the people in the Global South in climate exposed occupations experience climate change through water. Most (~60%) of all adaptations are in response to water related hazards, and many adaptation are about using water to improve livelihoods, e.g. irrigation Most mitigation measures, including nature based ones, can have high water footprint, yet rarely discussed
  • 3. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability • More than 60% of documented adaptation is related to water • Positive water-related outcomes have been documented in several dimensions • Water-related adaptation occurs across sectors, in particular the agricultural sector Source: IPCC WGII Ch04 Figure 4.29 Water is central to adaptation
  • 4. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability • Water-related adaptation is most effective up to 1.5°C and effectiveness decreases with increasing warming • Residual impacts remain, especially at higher levels of warming Adaptation becomes less effective with more warming Source: IPCC WGII Ch04 Figure 4.29
  • 5. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Mitigation (emissions reduction) and Carbon Dioxide Removals (CDR) approaches and technologies can have trade-offs with water and food security “Many mitigation measures (and CDR approaches and technologies) have considerable water footprint (high confidence), which must be managed in socially and politically acceptable ways to reduce the water intensity of mitigation while increasing synergies with sustainable development (medium evidence, high agreement)” WGII Chapter 4
  • 6. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Bio-Energy Crops • Bio-energy can help limit global temperature rise by replacing fossil fuels, but can double the global area and population living under severe water stress compared to the current baseline (Senthil Kumar, 2020) • Bio-energy crops can significantly impact food prices via demand for land and water (Fuhrman et al., 2020; Muratori et al., 2016).
  • 7. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Afforestation and re-forestation • Hugely popular tool of mitigation, with some very optimistic estimates saying additional 0.9 billion ha of canopy cover in suitable locations could store 205 Gt of carbon (Bastin et al., 2019) • If done at inappropriate locations, or inappropriate species, then can lead to trade-offs between land, bio-diversity, and water resources • Global Assessments on Forest and Water reiterated “afforestation and reforestation should be concentrated in water-abundant locations and where transpiration can potentially be captured downwind as precipitation”. (IUFRO, 2018) • Extensive BECCS and afforestation/reforestation deployment can alter the water cycle at regional scales (high confidence)
  • 8. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Pathways for transition: That’s where knowledge gaps are! Five Pathw ays for Achieving Transition in Agri-Food Sector PATHW AY 1 PATHW AY 2 PATHW AY 3 PATHW AY 4 PATHW AY 5 Reduce unsustainable consum ption w here such consum ption has harm ful effects on health, clim ate, and the environm ent Increase production of sustainable, healthy and nutritious food, particularly in LMICs, w ithout expanding agriculture into new lands Reduce dam age to natural resources such as soil, w ater, and biodiversity Reduce em issions, either absolute em issions or em issions intensity w ith the ultim ate aim of reducing absolute em issions Prioritise the needs and interests of sm alholder producers Reduce fertiliser use by im proving NUE in high use areas Increase production through crop and livestock breeding Im prove NUE of fertilisers allow ing less pollutants to leach into w ater bodies Im prove NUE and adoption of low em issions fertilisers Digital services e.g. clim ate advisory and indexed based insurance for sm allholder producers Reduce unsustainable intake of ASF in HIC contexts by partial replacem ent w ith alternative proteins Increase production through optim al application of low em issions fertilisers in areas of underuse Reduce food w aste and loss Reduce m ethane em issions from livestock sector; and prom ote adoption of alternative proteins Increase productivity and incom es through crop and livestock breeding for sm allholder farm ers Reduce food w aste Increase production through crop breeding in areas of low productivity Use digital services to aid all above Reduce food w aste and loss Im prove resilience of sm allholder production system s by adoption of agroecological and other sustainable approaches Prom ote sustainable healthy diets w ith low carbon footprint Increase production through clim ate-sm art livestock practices and agroecological and other sustainable approaches Im prove agricultural w ater m anagem ent Use digital services to aid all above Invest in social safety nets for sm allholder producers Use digital services to aid all above Reduce m ethane em issions from rice paddy https://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/131852
  • 9. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability THANK YOU @IPCC www.ipcc.ch IPCC Secretariat: ipcc-sec@wmo.int IPCC Press Office: ipcc-media@wmo.int @IPCC_CH linkedin.com/company/ipcc For More Information: Follow Us: / #IPCCReport

Editor's Notes

  1. Tabea: effective adaptation option exist, but higher warming makes adaptation less effectoive