This document discusses the challenges facing the major UK political parties leading up to the 2015 general election. It notes that voter support for the three main parties has declined, with only three-quarters now voting for one of them compared to nine in ten in 2010. No single party has a monopoly on the issues driving voter concerns. Both Labour and the Conservatives have weaknesses in how they and their leaders are perceived by the public. The election is positioned to be highly unpredictable with a fragmented vote.
5. Even in 2010, nine in ten voted for one of the three main parties – now it’s just three in four
6. 6
0
10
20
30
40
50
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
33%
7%
34%
15%
2005 General Election
Cameron elected (Dec 05)
Brown as PM (Jun 07)
2010 General Election
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through September 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Watch the share – not the lead!
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Lab 2012 average: 41%
Lab 2014 average: 35%
7. 7
70%
13%
3%
2%
12%
2014 Labour vote
2010 Labour
2010 LibDem
2010 Con
2010 UKIP
2010 Other
2010 DNV/too young/etc
Labour relying on LibDem switchers, but hardly any Tories
Base: 1,300 Labour supporters certain to vote, Jan – July 2014
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
8. 8
Share of governing party
Base: c. 500-1,000 British adults each month
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from new government taking power
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone. Data collected prior to Nov 2002 is based on all expressing an intention to vote, data from Nov 1992 is based on all certain to vote
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
In the past we have seen an electoral cycle effect….
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1987 GE
Conservatives: 1979-1997
(6 mth moving average)
1983 GE
1992 GE
9. 9
Base: c.1,000-3,000 British adults per poll, 1st March 2013 – 17th September 2014
Sources: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor, ICM, Populus, ComRes, BMRB, YouGov, Survation, Opinium, Angus Reid, Ashcroft
Conservative vote share
EOI
%
+/-
But so far the Conservative vote share isn’t moving much either
“How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?”
“Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next twelve months?”
-30
-15
0
15
30
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
+3
32%
-3
Proximity to 32%
Number of polls
% of polls
+/-3ppt
599/655
91%
+/-2ppt
517/655
79%
+/-1ppt
344/655
53%
10. 10
The system makes it harder for you
In 2005, Tony Blair won 36% of the vote and an overall majority of 64 seats
In 2010, David Cameron won 37% of the vote and was 20 seats short of a majority
If the Conservatives and Labour each had 33.4% of the vote, Labour would win 307 seats and the Conservatives would win 254 seats
Labour can win an overall majority with a lead of 2.8 percentage points, the Conservatives need an 11.1 point lead
11. 11
But that’s not the only reason –support concentrated in the South
38%
23%
16%
16%
7%
13. 13
Not a “women problem”, but a young women problem
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base Aggregated voting intention of 3,626 British adults 18+ Jan- July 2014
“How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?”* *All certain to vote
21
27
36
27
30
36
45
43
34
32
34
31
11
11
11
11
10
8
5
7
12
14
14
18
18-34
35-54
55+
18-34
35-54
55+
Conservative
Labour
Liberal Democrat
UKIP
Men
Women
14. 14
12%
12%
34%
23%
4%
16%
2014 UKIP vote
2010 Labour
2010 LibDem
2010 Con
2010 UKIP
2010 Other
2010 DNV/too young/etc
And the rise of UKIP is making it even harder
Base: 441 UKIP supporters certain to vote, Jan – July 2014
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
15. 15
UKIP is touching a nerve – will people still see it as a wasted vote?
On balance do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
26%
36%
8%
27%
14%
6%
6%
6%
8%
10%
20%
12%
26%
21%
63%
4%
3%
3%
Strongly agree
Tend to agree
Neither/nor
Tend to disagree
Strongly disagree
Don't know
34%
51%
14%
75%
UKIP is highlighting important issues which other parties aren't taking seriously enough
A vote for UKIP in a General election is a wasted vote
I would like my local MP to leave his/her party and join UKIP
50%
41%
53%
36%
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014
Down from 57% in May
17. 17
The dilemma: how to cover all the bases?
Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?*
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
5%
5%
6%
6%
6%
8%
10%
11%
12%
13%
23%
29%
30%
31%
Housing
Crime and ASB/ law and order
Pensions
Defence
Care for older/disabled
Taxation
Unemployment
Europe/ EU
Foreign policy/affairs
Benefits
Education/ schools
Healthcare/ NHS
Asylum and immigration
Economy
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014
*Showing only answers above 5%; see computer tables for full results
18. 18
You are increasing your lead on the economy
Which party do you think has the best policies on managing the economy the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan-00
May-00
Sep-00
Jan-01
May-01
Sep-01
Jan-02
May-02
Sep-02
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
20%
3%
45%
2%
55% among those who think it’s important
19. 19
UKIP is making the running on immigration
Which party do you think has the best policies on asylum/ immigration the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
18%
9%
19%
20%
40% among those who think it’s important
20. 20
While the NHS is Labour’s strongest card
Which party do you think has the best policies on healthcare the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jan-00
May-00
Sep-00
Jan-01
May-01
Sep-01
Jan-02
May-02
Sep-02
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
39%
4%
21%
1%
45% among those who think it’s important
21. 21
And people in marginals …..
Q. What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?
Base: 11,448 GB adults aged 18+, January-December 2013
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Economy/Economic situation
Race/Immigration
Unemployment
NHS/Hospitals
Crime/Law & order
Education/Schools
Pensions/Benefits
Inflation/Prices
Poverty/Inequality
Housing
Defence/Foreign
Safe Lab seats
Marginal seats
Safe Con seats
22. 22
And people in marginals sit in the middle on these issues too
Q. What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?
Base: 11,448 GB adults aged 18+, January-December 2013
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Economy/Economic situation
Race/Immigration
Unemployment
NHS/Hospitals
Crime/Law & order
Education/Schools
Pensions/Benefits
Inflation/Prices
Poverty/Inequality
Housing
Defence/Foreign
Safe Lab seats
Marginal seats
Safe Con seats
24. 24
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Labour the most liked party, but Cameron most liked leader
Miliband & the Labour Party
Cameron & the Conservative Party
%
%
Total like him
31
48
Total do not like him
63
49
Total like his party
50
42
Total do not like his party
44
55
Which of these statements come closest to your view of David Cameron/ Ed Miliband and the Conservative/ Labour party?
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014
25. 25
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
HAGUE (1997-2001)
DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
Ed’s approval ratings are low – IDS and Hague low...
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
CAMERON (2005-2010)
BLAIR (1994-1997)
MILIBAND (2010-2014)
HOWARD
(2003-2005)
Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone
Net satisfaction
26. 26
While Cameron still has the lead on key Prime Ministerial qualities
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…
67%
55%
55%
53%
43%
48%
43%
39%
46%
30%
43%
22%
36%
53%
32%
20%
55%
20%
26%
17%
26%
42%
45%
26%
39%
31%
58%
19%
24%
39%
52%
67%
A capable leader
Understands the problems facing Britain
Good in a crisis
Has sound judgement
Out of touch with ordinary people
More style than substance
Miliband
Cameron
Clegg
Has got a lot of personality
Has a clear vision for Britain
Farage
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th-9th September 2014
Split sample for Nick Clegg (496) and Nigel Farage (514)
27. 27
But the party still seen as out of touch – and divided
43%
35%
23%
61%
51%
40%
48%
46%
23%
52%
48%
27%
47%
41%
31%
48%
43%
14%
39%
32%
13%
56%
18%
20%
51%
39%
12%
38%
28%
24%
36%
16%
24%
39%
80%
64%
Looks after interests of people like me
Out of date
Fit to govern
Good team of leaders
Understands problems facing Britain
Different to other parties
Labour
Conservative
LibDem
Extreme
Keeps its promises
UKIP
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Divided
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014. Split sample question for UKIP (514) and the Liberal Democrats (496)
29. 29
The most unpredictable election in living memory?
What are the precedents?
–The last time a government increased its vote share after more than two years in office - 1955
–(It has only happened twice since 1900)
–The last time an opposition party was elected with an overall majority after just a single parliament out of office – 1931
–Successive hung Parliaments – only once (1910) since 1832
–In 6 out of 9 elections since the War when one party had a narrow poll lead one year out, the other party won.
30. 30
Who do you want to be?
Election
Winner
Party ahead in vote
Leader ahead in ratings
2015
?
Opposition
Government
31. 31
Only two previous occasions when opposition has led in vote but PM been ahead in ratings
Election
Winner
Party ahead in vote
Leader ahead in ratings
2015
?
Opposition
Government
2010
None
Opposition
Opposition
2005
Government
Government
Opposition
2001
Government
Government
Opposition
1997
Opposition
Opposition
Opposition
1987
Government
Opposition
Opposition
1983
Government
Government
Government
32. 32
Who do you want to be – Conservatives 1992 or Labour 1979?
Election
Winner
Party ahead in vote
Leader ahead in ratings
2015
?
Opposition
Government
2010
None
Opposition
Opposition
2005
Government
Government
Opposition
2001
Government
Government
Opposition
1997
Opposition
Opposition
Opposition
1992
Government
Opposition
Government
1987
Government
Opposition
Opposition
1983
Government
Government
Government
1979
Opposition
Opposition
Government