In a unique survey, Ipsos MORI will be interviewing a longitudinal panel of respondents on their attitudes to immigration throughout and after the election campaign. This will provide a much more detailed understanding of how and why views change. For the first wave we have also interviewed an unusually large sample of the public (over 4,500), which allows us to look at smaller sub-groups, including followers of all key parties and those who have switched parties since the last election.

1. Immigration
HOW VIEWS CHANGE
APRIL 2015

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Exploring Changes in Immigration Attitudes Over Time
In the first study of its kind, Ipsos MORI is conducting a longitudinal panel survey of
the British public on their attitudes to immigration throughout and after the election
campaign. This will provide a much more detailed understanding of how and why
views on immigration change.
In this presentation we highlight the key findings from our first panel wave of over
4,500 respondents as well as other trend data exploring immigration attitudes over
the past several decades. The large sample for our survey allows us to look at
smaller sub-groups, including followers of all key parties and those who have
switched parties since the last election.
The Fieldwork for the first longitudinal panel wave was completed online, from 25
February to 4 March 2015. Further waves will be released during and after the
campaign.
This initial wave identified 10 key trends in public opinion…
We would like to thank Unbound Philanthropy for their support of this study.

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2%
10%
25%
33%
28%
3%
Very satisfied Fairly satisfied
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Fairly dissatisfied
Very dissatisfied Don't know
6%
23%
71%
6 in 10 are dissatisfied with the government’s handling of
immigration, rising to almost all among Tory defectors to UKIP
Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015), UKIP base: 172
All respondents UKIP supporters who voted Tory in 2010
Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the current government is dealing with
immigration?

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3% 1% 3% 5% 4% 4%
28%
10%
33%
11%
33%
25%
71%
33%
35%
34%
36%
37%
40%
22%
25%
32%
23%
33%
20% 27%
6%10%
20%
6%
15%
3% 5%
1%2% 3% 2% 1% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total Conservatives Labour Lib Dem SNP Green UKIP
Very satisfied Fairly satisfied
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Fairly dissatisfied
Very dissatisfied Don't know
Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the current government is dealing with
immigration?
Even among Tory supporters, satisfaction is low, with
only 23% satisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)

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Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the current government is dealing with
immigration?
Consistent with previous measures – although lowest
satisfaction we’ve measured since 2007…
Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)
14% 14%
11%
16% 14% 15%
21%
23%
12%
67% 68%
72%
66% 67%
64%
62%
64%
61%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Satisfied Dissatisfied

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9% 4% 7% 9% 8% 13%
2%
12%
1%
25%
5%
19% 7%
15%
14%
3%
25%
13%
18%
21%
13%
39%
30%
36%
49%
43% 49%
47%
20%
44%
6%
20%
11% 8%
18%
7%
18%
1%
4%
2% 2%
5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total Conservatives Labour Lib Dem SNP Green UKIP
A much better job A slightly better job There's no difference
A slightly worse job A much worse job Don't know
Do you think the current government has done a better or worse job of handling immigration than the
previous Labour government?
The current government is generally seen as on a par with
previous Labour government on immigration
Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)

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7%
20%
39%
14%
12%
9%
A much better job now A slightly better job now
There's no difference A slightly worse job now
A much worse job now Don't know
6%
26%
48%
8%
11%
1%
Do you think the current government has done a better or worse job of handling immigration than the
previous Labour government?
And nearly half of Tory defectors to UKIP think there’s no
difference between this and previous Labour government
All respondents
Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015), UKIP base: 172
UKIP supporters who voted Tory in 2010

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Four in ten have shifted views since the last election and of
those, a majority are more worried, particularly UKIP supporters
1% 3% 4% 1% 5%
55%
58%
63%
42%
54%
33%
28%
29%
32%
29%
11% 11%
5%
25%
12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Conservatives Labour Lib Dems UKIP Total
Changed a lot Changed a little Stayed the same Don't know
Thinking back to the last general election in 2010, since
then would you say your views on immigration have
changed a lot, a little, or stayed the same?
18%
30%
33%
62%
36%
56%
50%
57%
34%
50%
18%
14%
8%
3%
10%
7%
4%
1%
2%
4%
2%
2%
1%
2%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Lib Dems
Labour
Conservatives
UKIP
Total
Much more worried A little more worried
A little less worried Much less worried
Don't know
And would you say you have become
more or less worried about immigration
since 2010?
Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)
Base: those who say their views have changed a lot or a little, 930 British adults 16+
(Feb-March 2015)

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23%
34%
22%
7%
3% 11%
It is being discussed a lot more now
It is being discussed a bit more now
It is being discussed about the same
amount
It is being discussed a bit less now
It is being discussed a lot less now
Don't know
Do you think that immigration is being discussed more, less or about the same amount now than it
was at the time of the last general election in 2010?
Over half think that immigration is being discussed
more now than at the last general election
Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)

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1 in 5 UKIP supporters think that immigration is being discussed
less now than in 2010
11%
4% 7% 8% 9%
3%
10% 2% 3% 1%
7% 11%
6%
8%
5%
22%
22%
23% 20%
20%
34%
35%
41%
32%
34%
23%
18% 21%
29% 32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total UKIP Conservatives Labour Lib Dems
It is being discussed a lot more now It is being discussed a bit more now
It is being discussed about the same amount It is being discussed a bit less now
It is being discussed a lot less now Don't know
Do you think that immigration is being discussed more, less or about the same amount now than it was at
the time of the last general election in 2010?
Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)

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7% 8%
62%
37%
20%
28%
11%
27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr-11 Feb-15
Too much About the right amount Too little Don't know
Source: YouGov, April 2011; Ipsos MORI, Mar 2014, Dec 2014, Feb 2015
Generally speaking, do you think that the issue of immigration has been discussed in Britain too
much, too little or about the right amount over the last few years/months?
By party (Feb 2015)
Views about level of discussion are polarising – three in four UKIP supporters
think it is discussed too little, half of Lib Dems say too much
4%
7%
6%
2%
8%
41%
28%
17%
74%
37%
37%
28%
28%
21%
28%
18%
38%
48%
4%
27%
0% 50% 100%
Conservatives
Labour
Lib Dems
UKIP
Total

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72%
23%
4%
1%
Immigration is not as much of a
problem as politicians and the
media make out
There is too much talk but not
enough action to control
immigration
Neither
Don't know
You said that immigration has been discussed too much over the last few months. Which of these two
statements best explains why you think that?
And most who think we discuss it too much are generally
not worried about it
Base: 1,215 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)

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Foreign born population is overestimated across the board. Lib
Dem and Green supporters closer to actual proportion (c13%)
What percentage of the United Kingdom population do you think are immigrants to this country (i.e. not
born in the UK)? MEAN
Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Green
Lib Dem
SNP
Labour
Conservatives
UKIP
Total

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Party supporters that are least positive about the impact of immigration
are most likely to overestimate immigration levels
R² = 0.7767
.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
14.00 16.00 18.00 20.00 22.00 24.00 26.00
Lib Dems
Plaid Cymru
Labour
SNP
Total
Conservatives
UKIP
Greens
What percentage of the United Kingdom population do you think are
immigrants to this country (i.e. not born in the UK)? MEAN
On a scale of 0 to 10, has migration had a positive or
negative impact on Britain? (0 is “very negative”, 10 is “very
positive”) MEAN
Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)

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But the opposite is true for generations – younger
generations more positive but less accurate
R² = 0.7411
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
16.00 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00 23.00 24.00 25.00
What percentage of the United Kingdom population do you think are
immigrants to this country (i.e. not born in the UK)? MEAN
On a scale of 0 to 10, has migration had a positive or
negative impact on Britain? (0 is “very negative”, 10 is
“very positive”) MEAN
Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)
Pre-war
Gen X
Baby-boomers
Gen Y
Pre-war: born before 1945
Baby-boomers: born between 1945 and 1965
Gen X: born between 1966 and 1979
Gen Y: born since1980

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0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pre-war (born
before 1945)
Baby boomers
(born between
1945 and 1965
Gen X (born
between 1966
and 1979)
Gen Y (born
since 1980)
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
What would you say is the most important issue/other important issues facing Britain today?
RACE RELATIONS/IMMIGRATION
Generations have diverged in their views on the salience
of immigration since the last election
GE2010

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Most Britons still prefer to stay in the EU, even when
considering the ability to control immigration
22%
22%
12%
17%
22%
20%
26%
15%
Strongly agree
Tend to agree
Tend to disagree
Strongly disagree
Don’t know
Base: 2,287 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)
19%
21%
20%
27%
12%
I would like Britain to leave the European Union I would like Britain to leave the European
Union as that is the only way we can
control the number of immigrants coming
To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement…?
Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 2,287British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)

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Which issues will be very important when voters cast their
ballots?
66%
47%
46%
45%
40%
36%
36%
35%
34%
32%
Healthcare/NHS/hospitals
Asylum and immigration
The economy
Care for older/disabled people
Benefits
Education/schools
Europe/EU
Pensions
Crime/law and order
Taxation
Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to
you in helping you decide which party to vote for?
Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)

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Only 23% say Immigration AND Europe will be
important to them
13% 23% 24%
Europe Only Both Europe and Immigration Immigration only
Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)
Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to
you in helping you decide which party to vote for?

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In 2005, the top four factors related to thinking
immigration is an issue were all newspapers…
Immigration
Read the Daily Mail
Owner-occupier
Vote Conservative
Read the Daily Express
Read the Sun
Work full-time
More likely to see as
important issue to Britain
Social classes AB
Read the Guardian
Satisfied with gov
1.81
1.65
1.65
1.32
1.29
1.16
0.63
Less likely to see as
important issue to Britain
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index, Jan-Oct 2004
0.68
0.58
Figures show odds ratios – i.e. how much more/less likely each group is to think immigration is an issue

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Reflected in the massive divergence of views across
readers of different newspapers
• Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Daily
Express
Daily Mail
Daily Mirror
Daily
Telegraph
The
Guardian
The
Independent
The Sun
The Times
None of
these
What would you say is the most important issue/other important issues facing Britain today?
IMMIGRATION

32. © Ipsos MORI
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Immigration
Vote UKIP
Read the Sun
Vote Conservative
Read Daily Mail
White ethnic group
Aged 65+
More likely to see as
important issue to Britain
Read the Guardian
Degree/post-grad
Vote Labour
Scotland
Aged 18-24
Greater London
Vote Green
4.75
1.69
1.67
1.61
1.44
1.41
0.55
0.56
0.63
0.68
0.68
0.52
0.74
Less likely to see as
important issue to Britain
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index, Jan-Oct 2014
But now political affiliation is the strongest predictor of
views on immigration
Figures show odds ratios – i.e. how much more/less likely each group is to think immigration is an issue

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0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Conservative
Labour
Liberal Democrats (Lib
Dem)
UK Independence Party
Would not vote
Undecided
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
What would you say is the most important issue/other important issues facing Britain today?
IMMIGRATION
Our long term trends show that UKIP supporters more likely
to say immigration an important issue

34. Immigration
HOW VIEWS CHANGE
For more details contact: Bobby.duffy@ipsos.com
Kully.kaur-ballagan@ipsos.com
Tom.frere-smith@ipsos.com
Glenn.gottfried@ipsos.com