This document discusses declining trust in and attachment to political parties and institutions in the UK. It finds that younger generations feel less connected to political parties than older generations. Trust in politicians has declined long-term. Support for third parties like UKIP and the Greens is rising as the dominance of Labour and the Conservatives falls. The public is increasingly divided on issues like the structure of government and the welfare state. The document concludes that the 2015 UK general election may see no party winning an outright majority due to these trends in public opinion.

1. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Political Leadership
How much does it matter?
Dear Westminster
We need to talk….

2. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Ben Page
Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI

3. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
We’re drifting apart

4. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
The dominance of the two main parties is falling
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month to November 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter. Figures based on all voting pre-November 2002,
all certain to vote from November 2002 onwards
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
1976 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014

5. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Our age gap is too
big

6. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
All data points represent > 200 responses
Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party?
By 2025, only 24% of population will feel attached to a
particular political party
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Pre war (born before 1945) Baby boomers (born 1945-1965) Generation X (born 1966-1979)
Generation Y (born 1980-) Generation Z (born after 2000) Total
% Yes
51%
24%

7. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Fear versus hope

8. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Which of these has been more important in your decision to vote – because you are hopeful for the future if your side wins, or
fearful if it loses?
The Scottish referendum wasn’t a resounding result
in favour of the status quo
All expressing an opinion (923). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014
Hopeful
80%
Fearful
16%
Neither
2%
Don't know
3%
Hopeful
36%
Fearful
58%
Neither
2%
Don't know
3%
Yes supporters No supporters
Source: Ipsos MORI

9. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
2%
19%
24%
26%
23%
6%
2%1 0%
24%
23%
31%
11%
3%
23%
28%
24%
14%
7%
Strongly
disagree
Neither
agree nor
disagree
Government distrusted at all levels
How strongly, if at all, do you agree or disagree with each of the following
statements? “[xxx] acts in the best interests of people like me”
Base: 1,967 British adults 16+, 26 September – 3 October 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI
Strongly
agree
Tend to
disagree
Don’t know
Tend to
agree
Local government UK Government European Parliament
21%
49%
26%
38%
12%
54%

10. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Although we’re confused about what we want instead
Which, if any, of the following statements best represents your views on how laws ONLY affecting England
should be made?
Base: 2,008 British adults 15+, 18th- 24th July 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI
22%
33%
33%
Laws only affecting England should be made
by a separate English Parliament
Laws only affecting England should be made
by the House of Commons, but only English
MPs should be able to vote on them
Laws only affecting England should be voted
on by all MPs in Parliament, as they are now

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I’ve found someone
else

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So far this year…..
UKIP have taken third place and reached a record high.
Those thinking they are a wasted vote have fallen from 57% to 41%.
The SNP have taken a record lead over Labour in
Westminster voting intentions in Scotland.
The Greens equalled their best ever
performance, matching the LibDems for three months and attracting
LibDem switchers who were going to Labour.

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You don’t trust me
any more

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...would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not?
No new crisis of trust in politicians?
Base: c.1,000-2,000 Source: Ipsos MORI
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Doctors
Pollsters
Civil servants
Journalists
Politicians

15. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
How much do you trust a British government of any party to place the needs of this
country above the interests of their own political party?
But long-term decline in trust in “government”
Source: British Social Attitudes, 1986-2009
0
10
20
30
40
%
% “almost never”

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It’s not you it’s me

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All data points represent > 200 responses
Do you regard yourself as belonging to any particular religion?
It’s not just politics – similar generational issues in
attitudes to religion
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
% Yes
Pre war (born before 1945) Baby boomers (born 1945-1965) Generation X (born 1966-1979) Generation Y (born 1980-) Total
Source: Ipsos MORI reanalysis of British Social Attitudes

18. © Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
All data points represent > 200 responses
“How much do you agree or disagree that … the creation of the welfare state is one of Britain's
proudest achievements.”
% “Agree”
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000) Trend
Source: Ipsos MORI reanalysis of British Social Attitudes
And in our attachment to the welfare state

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And as for 2015?
A loveless election…

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No one will win!
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
March 2010
Thinking ahead to the next general election, which of the following outcomes do you think is most likely?
24%
37%
22%
10%
1%6 %
Base: 1,011 British adults 18+, 8th -10th November 2014
Con majority
Hung – Con biggest
party
Hung – Lab biggest
party
Lab majority
Other
Don’t know
Lab largest
= 32%
Con largest
= 61%
November 2014
9%
27% 46%
9%
1%
9%
Con largest
Lab largest = 55%
= 36%
Hung Parliament =
73%
Hung Parliament =
59%

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Political Leadership
How much does it matter?
Thank you
ben.page@ipsos.com
benatipsosmori