This document provides the results of a political opinion poll conducted in the United Kingdom by Ipsos MORI in October 2014. The key findings include: - The Conservative party led the Labour party by 3 percentage points among those certain to vote, with the Conservatives at 33% and Labour at 30%. - Satisfaction with party leaders was highest for Nigel Farage of UKIP at 39% and lowest for Nick Clegg at 25%. Satisfaction with David Cameron was 38% and Ed Miliband was 25%. - The economic optimism index was positive at +12, with 37% thinking the economy will improve in the next year, 31% thinking it will stay the same, and 25

1. POLITICAL MONITOR October 2014
Contacts:
Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com
Harry.Carr@ipsos.com
020 7347 3000

2. Voting Intentions

3. 3
Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative lead = -5
All giving a voting intention: 78%
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
29%
34%
8%
17%
12%
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 11th -14th October 2014, all certain to vote = 628
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
Other
All certain to vote: 60%
Conservative lead = -3
30%
33%
8%
16%
13%

4. 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
33%
8%
30%
16%
2005 General Election
Cameron elected (Dec 05)
Brown as PM (Jun 07)
2010 General Election
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through October 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Voting Intentions January ‘04 – October ‘14 (all certain to vote)
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

5. 5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
How certain are Labour and Conservative supporters in their intention to vote? January ‘08 to October ‘14
% of supporters “Absolutely certain to vote”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
2010 General Election
Labour
Conservative
71%
69%
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through October 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter

6. Satisfaction with the Coalition and Party Leaders

7. 7
55
62
59
43
60
38
25
25
39
31
Net
Satisfaction
Swing from September
2014
-17
-1
-37
+4
-34
-2.5
-4
+0.5
-29
-4.5
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th October 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister /Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?
David Cameron
The Government
Nick Clegg
Ed Miliband
% Satisfied
% Dissatisfied
Nigel Farage
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

8. 8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
25%
% satisfied
Cameron
Clegg
General Election
38%
Miliband
25%
Brown
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?
Satisfaction with Party leaders January ‘08 – October ‘14
Farage
39%

9. 9
Net satisfaction
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
THATCHER
BLAIR
MAJOR
BROWN
CAMERON
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to October 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from October 2008 was via telephone

10. 10
38%
55%
7%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
David Cameron (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister?
Note: Data collected prior to October 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from October 2008 was via telephone
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
October 2014
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -17
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th October 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
October 2006 – October 2014

11. 11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 231 Conservative supporters 18+, 11th -14th October 2014
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister?
83%
14%
3%
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +69
Note: Data collected prior to October 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from October 2008 was via telephone
October 2006 – October 2014
October 2014

12. 12
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
HAGUE (1997-2001)
DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2014)
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
CAMERON (2005-2010)
BLAIR (1994-1997)
MILIBAND (2010-2014)
HOWARD
(2003-2005)
Note: Data collected prior to October 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from October 2008 was via telephone
Net satisfaction

13. 13
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (Labour)
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
BLAIR (1994-1997)
MILIBAND (2010-2014)
Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone
Net satisfaction
CALLAGHAN (1979-1980)
SMITH (1992-1994)
FOOT (1980-1983)
KINNOCK (1983-1992)

14. 14
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month *Thatcher data starts in March 1977 (i.e. 25 months after becoming Conservative leader)
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
HAGUE (1997-2001)
DUNCAN SMITH (2001- 2003)
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (Conservatives)
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
CAMERON (2005-2010)
HOWARD
(2003-2005)
Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone
Net satisfaction
THATCHER*
(1975-1979)

15. 15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ed Miliband (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 11th -14th October 2014
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
October 2010 – October 2014
October 2014
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
25%
59%
17%
Net = -34

16. 16
42%
46%
12%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Base: 270 Labour supporters 18+, 11th – 14th October 2014
Ed Miliband (satisfaction among Labour supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
October 2014
Net = -4
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
October 2010 – October 2014

17. 17
Nick Clegg (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to October 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from October 2008 was via telephone
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
October 2008 – October 2014
October 2014
25%
62%
13%
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -37
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 11th -14th October 2014

18. 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 69 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 11th – 14th October 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
October 2014
48%
39%
13%
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +9
Nick Clegg (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister?
October 2008 – October 2014
Note: Data collected prior to October 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from October 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

19. 19
39%
43%
18%
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 11th -14th October 2014
All
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
March 2013 – October 2014

20. 20
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party?
Nigel Farage (satisfaction among UKIP supporters)
Base: 139 UKIP supporters, 11th -14th October 2014.
91%
4%
5%
UKIP supporters
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
March 2013 – October 2014
Net = +87

21. The economy

22. 22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Economic Optimism Index
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Improve
Stay the same
Get worse
Improve
Don’t know
Get worse
Stay the same
October 2014
EOI = +12
37%
31%
25%
6%
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 11th -14th October 2014

23. 23
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jan-97
Apr-97
Jul-97
Oct-97
Jan-98
Apr-98
Jul-98
Oct-98
Jan-99
Apr-99
Jul-99
Oct-99
Jan-00
Apr-00
Jul-00
Oct-00
Jan-01
Apr-01
Jul-01
Oct-01
Jan-02
Apr-02
Jul-02
Oct-02
Jan-03
Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
+28
-46
-56
-48
+23
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
Index (get better minus get worse)
-64
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
+12
+34

24. UKIP

25. 25
The utility of voting UKIP
Please tell me to what extent you agree or disagree with the following statement…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
“…a vote for UKIP in a general election is a wasted vote”
41%
36%
30%
16%
14%
11%
7%
6%
7%
19%
20%
24%
14%
21%
24%
2%
3%
4%
May 2014
September
2014
October 2014
Strongly agree
Tend to agree
Neither/nor
Tend to disagree
Strongly disagree
Don't know
33%
57%
48%
41%
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 11th -14th October 2014
41%
50%

26. Party conferences: the policies

27. 27
Support for the parties’ tax policies
Please tell me to what extent, if at all, you support or oppose the following policies
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 501 British adults 18+, 11th -14th October 2014
Increasing the amount people can earn before they pay income tax from £10,000 to £12,500 per year
36%
41%
40%
64%
25%
22%
24%
21%
7%
9%
10%
5%
14%
12%
12%
5%
16%
14%
10%
4%
2%
1%
4%
2%
Strongly support
Tend to support
Neither support nor oppose
Tend to oppose
Strongly oppose
Don't know
Increasing the amount people can earn before they pay the higher tax rate of 40% from £40,000 to £50,000 per year
A tax to be charged each year to owners of homes worth more than £2 million
Increasing the tax rate from 45% to 50% for earnings over £150,000 per year
30%
61%
26%
63%
22%
64%
9%
85%

28. 28
41%
15%
41%
15%
16%
15%
16%
15%
7%
15%
7%
15%
19%
15%
19%
15%
14%
15%
14%
15%
2%
15%
2%
15%
Strongly support
Tend to support
Neither support nor oppose
Tend to oppose
Strongly oppose
Don't know
38%
37%
37%
58%
21%
21%
22%
26%
6%
7%
7%
4%
15%
14%
16%
5%
16%
17%
13%
5%
4%
4%
5%
2%
Support for the parties’ tax policies, with the parties named
Please tell me to what extent, if at all, you support or oppose the following policies
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
The Liberal Democrats’ and Conservatives’ policy of Increasing the amount people can earn before they pay income tax from £10,000 to £12,500 per year
The Conservatives’ policy of increasing the amount people can earn before they pay the higher tax rate of 40% from £40,000 to £50,000 per year
The Liberal Democrats’ and Labour’s policy of charging a tax to each year to owners of homes worth more than £2 million
Labour’s policy of increasing the tax rate from 45% to 50% for earnings over £150,000 per year
10%
84%
59%
29%
58%
59%
31%
31%
Base: 501 British adults 18+, 11th -14th October 2014

29. 29
Who should get the credit for raising the tax-free allowance?
As you may know, the amount people earn before they pay income tax has risen from £6,475 in 2010 to £10,000 from this April. Who, if anyone, do you think deserves most credit for this policy, the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
18%
28%
33%
26%
45%
41%
March 2014
October 2014
March 2014
October 2014
March 2014
October 2014
Liberal Democrats
Conservatives
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 11th -14th October 2014
Don’t know