Ipsos MORI’s last Political Monitor before party conference season and the Clacton by-election shows that UKIP’s popularity has risen by two percentage points, as other parties’ remain stable.

1. POLITICAL MONITOR September 2014
Contacts:
Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com
Harry.Carr@ipsos.com
020 7347 3000

2. Voting Intentions

3. 3
Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative lead = -3
All giving a voting intention: 85%
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
31%
34%
8%
14%
13%
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014, all certain to vote = 631
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
Other
All certain to vote: 59%
Conservative lead = +1
34%
33%
7%
15%
11%

4. 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
33%
7%
34%
15%
2005 General Election
Cameron elected (Dec 05)
Brown as PM (Jun 07)
2010 General Election
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through September 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Voting Intentions December ‘03 – September ‘14 (all certain to vote)
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

5. 5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
How certain are Labour and Conservative supporters in their intention to vote? January ‘08 to September ‘14
% of supporters “Absolutely certain to vote”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
2010 General Election
Labour
Conservative
69%
63%
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through September 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter

6. Satisfaction with the Coalition and Party Leaders

7. 7
54
66
58
44
56
39
21
29
39
36
Net
Satisfaction
Swing from August
2014
-15
+0.5
-45
-3.5
-29
n/c
-5
-0.5
-20
-1
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th – 9th September 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister /Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?
David Cameron
The Government
Nick Clegg
Ed Miliband
% Satisfied
% Dissatisfied
Nigel Farage
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

8. 8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
21%
% satisfied
Cameron
Clegg
General Election
39%
Miliband
29%
Brown
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?
Satisfaction with Party leaders January ‘08 – September ‘14
Farage
39%

9. 9
Net satisfaction
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
THATCHER
BLAIR
MAJOR
BROWN
CAMERON
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone

10. 10
39%
54%
7%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
David Cameron (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister?
Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
September 2014
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -15
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th – 9th September 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
September 2006 – September 2014

11. 11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 254 Conservative supporters 18+, 6th -9th September 2014
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister?
76%
20%
4%
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +56
Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone
September 2006 – September 2014
September 2014

12. 12
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
HAGUE (1997-2001)
DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2014)
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
CAMERON (2005-2010)
BLAIR (1994-1997)
MILIBAND (2010-2014)
HOWARD
(2003-2005)
Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone
Net satisfaction

13. 13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ed Miliband (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
November 2010 – September 2014
September 2014
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
29%
58%
13%
Net = -29

14. 14
42%
46%
12%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Base: 295 Labour supporters 18+, 6th – 9th September 2014
Ed Miliband (satisfaction among Labour supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
September 2014
Net = -4
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
November 2010 – September 2014

15. 15
Nick Clegg (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
September 2008 – September 2014
September 2014
21%
66%
12%
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -45
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014

16. 16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 70 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 6th – 9th September 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
September 2014
44%
51%
6%
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -7
Nick Clegg (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister?
September 2008 – September 2014
Note: Data collected prior to September 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from September 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

17. 17
39%
44%
17%
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014
All
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
March 2013 – September 2014

18. 18
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK Independence Party?
Nigel Farage (satisfaction among UKIP supporters)
Base: 127 UKIP supporters, 6th -9th September 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
90%
7%
3%
UKIP supporters
Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
March 2013 – September 2014
Net = +83

19. The economy

20. 20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Economic Optimism Index
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Improve
Stay the same
Get worse
Improve
Don’t know
Get worse
Stay the same
September 2014
EOI = +24
45%
29%
21%
4%
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014

21. 21
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Dec-97
Mar-98
Jun-98
Sep-98
Dec-98
Mar-99
Jun-99
Sep-99
Dec-99
Mar-00
Jun-00
Sep-00
Dec-00
Mar-01
Jun-01
Sep-01
Dec-01
Mar-02
Jun-02
Sep-02
Dec-02
Mar-03
Jun-03
Sep-03
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
+4
-46
-56
-48
+23
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
Index (get better minus get worse)
-64
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
+24
+34

22. UKIP

23. 23
The utility of voting UKIP
On balance do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
8%
41%
36%
26%
26%
6%
16%
14%
25%
27%
8%
7%
6%
9%
6%
12%
19%
20%
15%
10%
63%
14%
21%
19%
26%
3%
2%
3%
6%
4%
Strongly agree
Tend to agree
Neither/nor
Tend to disagree
Strongly disagree
Don't know
34%
51%
33%
57%
14%
75%
UKIP is highlighting important issues which other parties aren't taking seriously enough
A vote for UKIP in a General election is a wasted vote
I would like my local MP to leave his/her party and join UKIP
50%
41%
53%
36%
Sept 2014
May 2014
Sept 2014
May 2014
Sept 2014
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 6th -9th September 2014