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Leading in
Difficult & Uncertain Times
The Battle of Britain

Stephen Carver FAPM
School of Management
Cranfield University
Leading in
Difficult & Uncertain Times
“Eagles
may soar high

but…….
weasels don’t get sucked
into jet engines”
Leading in
Difficult & Uncertain Times
Want to do

Don’t want to
do

Strategic
Spontaneous
Projects &
Adventures Programmes

Crisis
Events

Compliance
Projects &
Programmes

Unplanned

Planned
68%
Project Failure Rate
Most projects and programmes
are doomed to fail....
Flying Analogy
Chesley B. “Sully” Sullenberger III
Chaos
Complex or
Complicated?
UK Airways System
PPM – Maturity Levels

5

4
3
2
1

World Class Continuous process
improvement , success is normal
Competitive Controlled and
measured processes, results more in
line with plans

Compliant Standardised, more predictable
Minimal Some process, inconsistent success

Ad Hoc Disorganised, accidental success
PPM – Strategic Advantage
Strategic
Contribution

Limit of process based approach

5

4
3
2
1

World-class: redefines delivery in the industry,
automatically improving, very hard to imitate by
competitors, drives business strategy.
Competitive: provides source of competitive
advantage, focused, metrics determine areas for
improvement, supports business strategy.
Compliant: follows industry-accepted norms,
improvements sporadic, process-focused, cost of
failure significant, little strategic contribution
Minimal: tasked with ‘not messing up’, some use
of standards, reactive, high cost of failure,
negative strategic contribution.

Ad hoc: unreliable delivery, very high cost of
failure, strongly negative strategic
contribution
Two Dimensions of Complexity

Programme

Complex
Dynamic

Project

Agile

High
Structural
Dimension
Low

Low

Dynamic
Dimension

High
1940
The Battle of Britain
1940
Huge number of great planes
Huge numbers of pilots
Lots of experience
Innovative tactics
Morale high
On a roll
Large number of rubbish planes
Limited number of pilots
Limited experience
Traditional tactics
Morale low
Defeatist
Hugh Dowding

Head of RAF
Fighter Command

Complex/Dynamic
More with less
Fighter Command System
Deals with
Structural
Complexity
Deals with
Dynamic
Complexity
Hugh Dowding

Head of Fighter Command

Leigh Mallory

Keith Park
Approach
Engage in pure fighter raids

Engage bomber raids after they bomb
Big Wing standing patrols
Shoot down lots of planes

Pursue stragglers over the sea

Douglas
Bader

Pilots are a individualistic risk taking heroes
Approach
Do not engage pure fighter raids

Engage bomber raids before they bomb
Scramble early – hit and run
Aim to break up formations

Do not pursue stragglers over the sea
Pilots are part of an integrated team
The Luftwaffe: strategically incoherent
• Bomb Ports
• Bomb Factories
• Bomb RAF

• Bomb London
Goering
The Blitz

Hitler expects to terrorise and
cow the people of this mighty
city…
Little does he know the spirit of
the British nation, or the tough
fibre of the Londoners.
Now Park could really do his stuff …
So What?

•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Have a clear vision/strategy
Do more with less - focus
Turn on the radar!
Know where you/the “enemy” are
Have simple/flexible/agile systems
Bend/make the rules
Communicate and integrate...
Lead/empower/trust
Embrace risk & complexity
But...
Leadership of Change

“There is nothing more difficult to arrange,
more doubtful of success and more
dangerous to carry through, than initiating
change.
The change leader makes enemies of all
those who prospered under the old order
and only lukewarm support is forthcoming
from those who would prosper under the
new.
Socio Political Complexity
Programme

Complex
Dynamic

Project

Agile

High
Structural
Dimension
Low

Low

Dynamic

High
“If ever any one man won the Battle of
Britain,
Keith Park did.
I don’t believe it is recognised how much
this one man, with his leadership, his calm
judgment and his skill, did to save not only
this country, but the world.”

Lord Tedder
Chief of the Royal Air Force
February 1947
Thank you!

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The Battle of Britain

  • 1. Leading in Difficult & Uncertain Times The Battle of Britain Stephen Carver FAPM School of Management Cranfield University
  • 2. Leading in Difficult & Uncertain Times “Eagles may soar high but……. weasels don’t get sucked into jet engines”
  • 3. Leading in Difficult & Uncertain Times Want to do Don’t want to do Strategic Spontaneous Projects & Adventures Programmes Crisis Events Compliance Projects & Programmes Unplanned Planned
  • 4. 68% Project Failure Rate Most projects and programmes are doomed to fail....
  • 6.
  • 7. Chesley B. “Sully” Sullenberger III
  • 10. PPM – Maturity Levels 5 4 3 2 1 World Class Continuous process improvement , success is normal Competitive Controlled and measured processes, results more in line with plans Compliant Standardised, more predictable Minimal Some process, inconsistent success Ad Hoc Disorganised, accidental success
  • 11. PPM – Strategic Advantage Strategic Contribution Limit of process based approach 5 4 3 2 1 World-class: redefines delivery in the industry, automatically improving, very hard to imitate by competitors, drives business strategy. Competitive: provides source of competitive advantage, focused, metrics determine areas for improvement, supports business strategy. Compliant: follows industry-accepted norms, improvements sporadic, process-focused, cost of failure significant, little strategic contribution Minimal: tasked with ‘not messing up’, some use of standards, reactive, high cost of failure, negative strategic contribution. Ad hoc: unreliable delivery, very high cost of failure, strongly negative strategic contribution
  • 12. Two Dimensions of Complexity Programme Complex Dynamic Project Agile High Structural Dimension Low Low Dynamic Dimension High
  • 14. 1940 Huge number of great planes Huge numbers of pilots Lots of experience Innovative tactics Morale high On a roll Large number of rubbish planes Limited number of pilots Limited experience Traditional tactics Morale low Defeatist
  • 15. Hugh Dowding Head of RAF Fighter Command Complex/Dynamic More with less
  • 19. Hugh Dowding Head of Fighter Command Leigh Mallory Keith Park
  • 20. Approach Engage in pure fighter raids Engage bomber raids after they bomb Big Wing standing patrols Shoot down lots of planes Pursue stragglers over the sea Douglas Bader Pilots are a individualistic risk taking heroes
  • 21. Approach Do not engage pure fighter raids Engage bomber raids before they bomb Scramble early – hit and run Aim to break up formations Do not pursue stragglers over the sea Pilots are part of an integrated team
  • 22. The Luftwaffe: strategically incoherent • Bomb Ports • Bomb Factories • Bomb RAF • Bomb London Goering
  • 23. The Blitz Hitler expects to terrorise and cow the people of this mighty city… Little does he know the spirit of the British nation, or the tough fibre of the Londoners.
  • 24. Now Park could really do his stuff …
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27. So What? • • • • • • • • • • Have a clear vision/strategy Do more with less - focus Turn on the radar! Know where you/the “enemy” are Have simple/flexible/agile systems Bend/make the rules Communicate and integrate... Lead/empower/trust Embrace risk & complexity But...
  • 28. Leadership of Change “There is nothing more difficult to arrange, more doubtful of success and more dangerous to carry through, than initiating change. The change leader makes enemies of all those who prospered under the old order and only lukewarm support is forthcoming from those who would prosper under the new.
  • 30. “If ever any one man won the Battle of Britain, Keith Park did. I don’t believe it is recognised how much this one man, with his leadership, his calm judgment and his skill, did to save not only this country, but the world.” Lord Tedder Chief of the Royal Air Force February 1947