To view recording: http://youtu.be/BzuP1pAEDR0 or watch the video at end of the slides For other Informa Webinars: http://www.informa-mea.com/webinars This webinar will address the most topical areas such as: - The ability to predict significant events impacting a business and having strategies to deal with them is a business differentiator - Why then were most organisations not prepared for the recent change in the global oil prices? - What other major scenarios might have been missed? - What needs to be done? - What should the role of the assurance providers such as Internal Audit, Risk management and Compliance be in this regard?

1. Phil Griffiths
Why has the recent change
in the global oil price caught
so many organisations out?
The webinar will start shortly

2. Webinar Leader
Phil Griffiths
CEO
Business Risk Management Ltd
pg@businessrisk.co.uk

3. Agenda
• Welcome
• Housekeeping notes
• Session starts
• Q&A
• End of webinar

4. House Keeping
• Slides will be available on our SlideShare page, link will be
emailed to you
• Recording of the webinar will be available to download, link
will be emailed
• Take the time to complete post-webinar survey that will pop
up at the end
• You can type your questions throughout the session
• Time will be allocated in the end for the speaker to address
your questions

5. Predicting Major Events
• The ability to predict significant
events impacting a business and
having strategies to deal with them is
a business differentiator
• It is also a key element of the
Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)
process

6. Predicting major events
• Why then has the recent large fall in
global oil prices seemingly left
businesses unprepared?
• Buying oil forward at $95 per barrel
when the current price is $140 seems
like a good deal – but not when the
price falls to $45!

7. What has gone wrong?
• The last 10 years has shown us that
the world can expect business
volatility
• The depth of the recession in 2008
was not predicted
• We have had more frequent and
more devastating natural disasters
• Now the oil price fall?

8. What else could be missed?
• What other events could be lurking
out there?
• Whose job is it to look for them?
• What should the role of the
Assurance providers such as Risk
Management, Internal Audit and
Compliance be in this regard?

9. Characteristics of a mature ERM
process AON 2014 survey
• An ERM culture that encourages full
engagement and accountability at all
levels of the organization
• Engagement of stakeholders in risk
management strategy development
and policy setting

10. Characteristics of an Advanced
ERM process
• Identification of
new and
emerging risks
using internal
data as well as
information from
external
providers

11. Characteristics of an Advanced
ERM process
• A move from
focusing on risk
avoidance and
mitigation to
leveraging risk and
risk management
options that extract
value

12. Every business needs to ‘ring
fence’ exposure
• The Medici
principle
• No single part of
the business
should be able to
critically impact
the whole
organisation

13. What about ERM?
• Having a comprehensive ERM should
identify emerging risks?
• However, my experience is that
emerging risks particularly the
‘black swans’ are often not
recognised until it is too late
• A black swan is a rare but very high
impact event

14. The Reason that black swans
are not often recognised

15. RISK ASSESSMENT MATRIX
5 10 15 20 25
4 8 12 16 20
3 6 9 12 15
2 4 6 8 10
1 2 3 4 5
IMPACT
LIKELIHOODOFOCCU

16. The recommended approach

17. RISK ASSESSMENT MATRIX
11 16 20 23 25
7 12 17 21 24
4 8 13 18 22
2 5 9 14 19
1 3 6 10 15
IMPACT
LIKELIHOODOFOCCURRENCE

18. Managing emerging risks

19. Emerging risks
• Emergent Risks are those that have not
yet occurred or are at an early stage of
becoming known
• They are expected to grow greatly in
significance.
• They do not have the ‘track record’ of
other risks and usually arise in the
longer term.

20. Emerging risk examples
• Nuclear energy
• Climate change
• Flooding and
famine
• San Francisco
earthquake
• Social media
• Shale Oil

21. What should be done?
• How can lessons be learnt?
• What actions should be put in place?
• Who has to be involved?
• What else can be done?

22. Course Dates- 2015
ERM May 3-7 & Nov 15-19
Advanced ERM Apr 12-16 & Sep 13-17
Risk Based Audit Mar 15-19 & Oct 25-29