Leading in difficult and uncertain times: The Battle of Britain, Stephen Carver, 2015

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This document discusses leadership in difficult times using the Battle of Britain as an example. It describes the strategic approaches taken by Hugh Dowding and Keith Park in leading the Royal Air Force's Fighter Command against the German Luftwaffe. Park was able to focus resources effectively and implement an agile defense strategy through clear communication and empowering pilots. This allowed the outnumbered British forces to defeat the Luftwaffe and turn the tide of the battle, demonstrating the importance of having a clear vision, focusing resources, communicating integrated plans, empowering teams, and embracing complexity when leading during a crisis.

Leading in
Difficult & Uncertain Times
The Battle of Britain
Stephen Carver FAPM
School of Management
Cranfield University

“Eagles
may soar high
but…….
weasels don’t get sucked
into jet engines”
Leading in
Difficult & Uncertain Times

Don’t want to
do
Want to do
PlannedUnplanned
Strategic
Projects &
Programmes
Spontaneous
Adventures
Compliance
Projects &
Programmes
Crisis
Events
Leading in
Difficult & Uncertain Times

68%
Project Failure Rate
Most projects and programmes
are doomed to fail....

PPM – Maturity Levels
1
2
3
4
5
Ad Hoc Disorganised, accidental success
Minimal Some process, inconsistent success
Compliant Standardised, more predictable
Competitive Controlled and
measured processes, results more in
line with plans
World Class Continuous process
improvement , success is normal

1
2
3
4
5
Competitive: provides source of competitive
advantage, focused, metrics determine areas for
improvement, supports business strategy.
Compliant: follows industry-accepted norms,
improvements sporadic, process-focused, cost of
failure significant, little strategic contribution
Minimal: tasked with ‘not messing up’, some use
of standards, reactive, high cost of failure,
negative strategic contribution.
Ad hoc: unreliable delivery, very high cost of
failure, strongly negative strategic
contribution
World-class: redefines delivery in the industry,
automatically improving, very hard to imitate by
competitors, drives business strategy.
Limit of process based approach
PPM – Strategic Advantage
Strategic
Contribution

Structural
Dimension
Dynamic
Dimension
Low
High
HighLow
Complex
Dynamic
AgileProject
Programme
Two Dimensions of Complexity

Huge number of great planes
Huge numbers of pilots
Lots of experience
Innovative tactics
Morale high
On a roll
Limited number of pilots
Limited experience
Traditional tactics
Morale low
Defeatist
1940
Large number of rubbish planes

Complex/Dynamic
More with less
Hugh Dowding
Head of RAF
Fighter Command

Hugh Dowding
Head of Fighter Command
Keith ParkLeigh Mallory

Approach
Engage in pure fighter raids
Engage bomber raids after they bomb
Big Wing standing patrols
Shoot down lots of planes
Pursue stragglers over the sea
Pilots are a individualistic risk taking heroes
Douglas
Bader

Approach
Do not engage pure fighter raids
Engage bomber raids before they bomb
Scramble early – hit and run
Aim to break up formations
Do not pursue stragglers over the sea
Pilots are part of an integrated team

The Luftwaffe: strategically incoherent
• Bomb Ports
• Bomb Factories
• Bomb RAF
Goering
• Bomb London

Hitler expects to terrorise and
cow the people of this mighty
city…
Little does he know the spirit of
the British nation, or the tough
fibre of the Londoners.
The Blitz

So What?
• Have a clear vision/strategy
• Do more with less - focus
• Turn on the radar!
• Know where you/the “enemy” are
• Have simple/flexible/agile systems
• Bend/make the rules
• Communicate and integrate...
• Lead/empower/trust
• Embrace risk & complexity
• But...

“There is nothing more difficult to arrange,
more doubtful of success and more
dangerous to carry through, than initiating
change.
The change leader makes enemies of all
those who prospered under the old order
and only lukewarm support is forthcoming
from those who would prosper under the
new.
Leadership of Change

Structural
Dimension
Dynamic
Low
High
HighLow
Complex
Dynamic
AgileProject
Programme
Socio Political Complexity

“If ever any one man won the Battle of
Britain,
Keith Park did.
I don’t believe it is recognised how much
this one man, with his leadership, his calm
judgment and his skill, did to save not only
this country, but the world.”
Chief of the Royal Air Force
February 1947
Lord Tedder

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The silent project disruptor: Building AI solutions

Association for Project Management

Kai-Fu Lee predicted that AI would change the world more than anything in the history of humanity – even electricity. It would disrupt how we live and work, how we operate our businesses, the core products and services on offer and the way in which we build technology. However, in 2024 the impact of AI can no longer be discussed in future tense. With Microsoft copilot now publicly available, the change is already upon us. There is no consultation period or ‘unsubscribe’ button. Project management professionals are likely to be asked to manage AI projects - and we are expected to skilfully use AI in our daily work lives. While overwhelming, this is not the first time we’ve had to adapt. Sarah helps her audience sharpen their cutting-edge skills by answering: What do I need to know about AI right now? If I’m asked to work on an AI project, what techniques do I need to be successful? Where do I start my own learning journey to upskill and prepare? Sarah’s expertise in advanced agile and experience in highly regulated Finance environments give her a unique perspective into balancing governance with technical innovation. She uses her own experience building an AI solution in 2023 to share practical, widely applicable concepts in an “AI for project managers” 101 style session.

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