The document provides information on baseline studies for infrastructure development projects in Nepal. It defines a baseline study as a cross-sectional survey that quantifies the current status of a situation in a given population. It aims to measure the distribution of variables at a single point in time. The baseline establishes starting values that can be compared to endline data to assess changes resulting from a project. The document outlines the key components of conducting a baseline study, including objectives, research methodology, data collection and analysis.

1. Baseline Survey Study for
Projects on Infrastructure Developments
in Nepal
Umesh Kumar Mandal
Associate Professor
Central Department of Geography
Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur
Email: umesh_jee@hotmail.com
Training on Management of Land Acquisition, Resettlement and Rehabilitation (MLARR)
for the senior executives of DoR,17-20 January, 2013, Hotel Space Mountain, Nagarkot
Organized by Road Sector skill development Unit(RSSDU) & RHF

2. What is baseline Study ?
• A baseline study is a descriptive cross-sectional
survey that mostly provides quantitative information
on the current status of a particular situation - on
whatever study topic - in a given population
• It aims at quantifying the distribution of certain
variables in a study population at one point in time.
It involves the systematic collection and
presentation of data to give a clear picture of a
particular situation as it relates the following: What?
Who? Where? When? Why? How?
• A baseline normally covers only a sample of the
population. If a baseline study covers the entire
population it is called a census (FAO, 2004)

3. What is baseline Study ?
• In RAIDP, a baseline study generates information
on the socio-economic status of a given population
on selected indicators in a specific clusters.
• The baseline study is repeated at the completion of
the development project/programme
implementation to measure changes that have
occurred over time in the characteristics that were
studied before the beginning of the programme

4. What is baseline Study ?
• A baseline study involves providing a snapshot of
the standard of living in a community/population at
a given moment. Depending on the information
needs of the entity, a new snapshot is taken at
least every two to four years (depending on the
length of the project). These snapshots (and the
analysis of the changes in between the snapshots)
provide the information needed to (re)design a
project or programme( Oury 2008).

5. What is baseline data ?
• Baseline data are critical reference points for
assessing changes
• Baseline data is used as a starting point for
gauging progress towards the goal and objectives
and measuring the level and direction of change
• It establishes a basis for comparing the situation
before and after an intervention and making
inferences as to the effectiveness of the project
• Baseline data should include the kind of information
that would be appropriate for measuring changes in
accordance with the objectives of the programme
or intervention

6. What is baseline data ?
• Baseline data can be quantitative or qualitative or a
combination of both.
• The situation analysis and need assessment
can provide some information that can serve as
a baseline.

7. Question to ask about baseline
plan ?
• Does the baseline data describe the situation prior
to the intervention?
• Was it collected (will it be collected) within a
timeframe close enough to the intervention so that
meaningful conclusions can be reached regarding
changes measured? There is no standard,
recommended timeframe for meaningful, baseline
data. The value of data for gauging possible
change depends greatly on the context and
environment.
• Does the information describe the situation and
measure factors that the objectives address?

8. Question to ask about baseline
plan ?
• Does the data accurately reflect the situation for the
target population? If taken from a sample, can
meaningful inferences be made about the target
population?
• It is not always necessary or feasible for
organizations to conduct extensive baseline
studies. Keep in mind that baseline data can also
be collected from existing sources.

9. Illustrative Baseline Surveys
• Nepal Living Standard Survey 2003/04& 2010/11
• Poverty Alleviation Fund (PAF): M and E
Baseline Survey 2010
• Nepal Demographic Health Survey
• Labor force survey

10. Quantitative ?
Quantitative (or numerical) data provides
comparable data on “who” and “how much.
Methods for collecting quantitative data:
• Surveys
• Service provider records (health, justice, social
service records
• Demographic data
• Administrative records

11. Qualitative ?
Qualitative approaches provide contextual, in-depth
information on the “why” and “how.” Qualitative
information complements and provides greater
insight into quantitative data.
Challenges and limitations of qualitative methods:
• Qualitative participatory methods require more
time and resources
• Qualitative data is harder to analyze and compare
• Qualitative data is sometimes less “credible” to
policy makers and donors who prefer numbers

12. Qualitative
Methods for collecting qualitative data :
• Case Study
• Comparable views from diverse stakeholders
• Triangulation:(document review, individual
interviews and focus group discussions), informants
and researchers allowed for triangulation of the
data to corroborate and validate the findings
• Participation of key stakeholders
• Dialogue providing a neutral ground among some
sectors that rarely interacted( voiceless) and in the
consensus-building process around the

13. BASELINE STUDY END LINE STUDY/
FOLLOW UP STUDY
PROJECT AFTER
BEFORE INTERVENTIO
N
• CHANGE or IMPACT
ASSESSMENT

14. Why conduct a baseline Study ?
• To determine the extent of socio-economic
patterns in a population and the usage levels of
certain services, and to collect demographic
information ( production, travel time/cost to socio-
economic centers etc.)
• To draw conclusions that can be applied generally
to the whole population of a locality/intervention
zone

15. Why conduct a baseline Study ?
• To determine current indicator levels : transport ;
non-agriculture activities , income, expenditure,
- entrepreneurship ; education and health
before intervention to prepare the programme
objectives and to evaluate the
progress/accomplishment of the additional
objectives
• To establish the target level/objectives of the
project/programme or to provide base values for
the chosen indicators

16. The Stages Involved In A
Baseline Study
1. Rationale and objectives
2. Description of the research location/geographical
context
3. Methodology of the survey
4. Results
5. Conclusions and recommendations

17. Detailed Design of A Baseline
Study
1. Formulating the study purpose
2. Formulating the problem statement
3. Research justification/rationale
4. Literature review
5. Setting study objectives
6. Methodology
7. Implementation of the baseline study in the
field
8. Presentation of survey findings

18. 1.Rationale and objectives
• In formulating the study objectives, bear the
following in mind:
• Objectives must cover the different aspects of the problem
and its contributing factors in a coherent and logical
sequence.
• The objectives must be clearly phrased in operational
terms, specifying exactly what needs to be done, where and
for what purpose.
• Objectives must be realistic considering local conditions.
• Action verbs that are specific and measurable must be used
in formulating the objectives. Examples of action verbs
include: to determine, to compare, to verify, to calculate, to
describe and to establish. Avoid such verbs as to
appreciate, to understand or to study.

19. Setting study objectives using
the SMART principle
Specific
Measurable
Achievable
Realistic
Time-framed

20. For Example: Project
Development Objective (PDO) of
RAIDP Road Sub-project
• 20 percent increase in motorize and non-motorized
trips by beneficiaries by the end of the Project
(EOP), and
• 20 percent reduction in travel time by beneficiaries
by EOP
• 30 percent increase in annual average daily traffic
(AADT) with the project districts in the categories
bus, truck, micro bus and jeep

21. Project Output Indicators
• 15% increase in the number of people in
participating hill districts that live within four hours
of walking to an all-season road, and
• 10% increase in the number of people in
participating Tarai districts that live within two hours
of walking to an all-season road

22. 2. Description of the research
location/geographical context
• This section contains the criteria used for selecting
the location as well as gathering general
information on the study population

23. Illustration: RAIDP Participating
Districts
• Cluster I: Kailali, Bardiya, Banke, and
Salyan, Kanchanpur, Surkhet, Dang
• Cluster II: Kapilvastu, Rupandehi,
Nawalparasi and
Palpa,Pyuthan,Gulmi,Arghakhanchi
• Cluster III: Rasuwa, Kaski, Syangja,
Dhading, Nuwakot and
Makawanpur,Tanahu
• Cluster IV: Rautahat, Sarlahi, Mahottari,
Dhanusa, Siraha and Udayapur
,Bara,Parsa,Saptari ( Map)

24. 3. Methodology of the study
• This section must provide a detailed outline of
the overall study and describe the design of the
tools, the sampling strategies (including the
sizes of the samples) and the methods used for
gathering the data. It is necessary to explain
and justify the use of the research
specifications and the methods chosen and
also to discuss all the problems encountered

25. Experimental Design

26. Sampling methods and sampling
size
• Sampling: Sampling is essential because
populations tend to be large and resources and
time available limited with the result that it is usually
not possible to study each person. For this reason
there is little choice but to select a sample from the
population and from it make projections or
generalizations regarding the entire population
• Representativeness

27. Sampling methods
• Systematic random sampling
• Stratified random sampling
• Cluster sampling

28. Sample size
Total Suggested Percentage
number of number of
group sample
100 15 15
200 20 10
500 50 10
1000 50 5

29. Data collection tools and procedures
1. Sex 1. Female
2. Male
2. Age group 1. 15 - 20 years
2. 21 - 30 years
3. 31 - 40 years
4. 41 and above
3. Place of delivery 1. Home
2. General hospital
3. Private hospital

30. Preparing the baseline study
report
• The Executive Summary
• The Introduction
•Presentation of findings
•Conclusions and recommendations

31. Data analysis
• Univariate analysis
• Bivariate analysis
Multivariate analysis

32. Preparing the baseline study
report
• The Executive Summary
• The Introduction
•Presentation of findings
•Conclusions and recommendations

33. THANK YOU
For Comments and
Discussion

34. Review of project related documents
• Project Appraisal Document
• Proposed Additional Grant
• Social Screening
• Environmental and social management
framework

35. Review of Earlier Baseline Survey Methodology
• Nepal Living Standard Survey 2003/04
• Poverty Alleviation Fund (PAF): M and E
Baseline Survey 2010
• Rural Access Program 2009
• Impact Evaluation of rural road project, World
Bank, 2008
• Socio-economic baseline survey of rural road
in Afganistan,2009

36. Key components derived from earlier Baseline
Survey Methodology
• Census or Sample districts
• Defining primary sample unit(PSU)
• 12-15 sampled households selected from each
PSU

37. Developing baseline survey methodology of rural
roads for RAIDP districts
Bases of developing methodology mentioned
in TOR
• Sound statistical analysis to be performed on
baseline data
• Project (Treatment) and Control( Non-
treatment) Areas to be selected with the
consultation of DoLIDAR and DDCs
• Zone of Influences
• Acceptable sample household from
settlement( minimum 20 hh)
• Sampled HH to be contained social groups
• Piloting of survey designed

38. Developing baseline survey methodology of rural
roads for RAIDP districts
Multi- Stage Quasi- randomized design
Stage 1: one road from each 20 existing
district and all roads almost 20 are from 10
additional new districts). 40 roads from 30
districts
Stage 2: Total 80 PSUs , 2 PSUs from each
road for project and control areas
separately.
Stage 3: 20 sampled households, 15 for project
and 5 for control area

39. Data Sources
1. Secondary
• RAIDP documents/Various project reports
• District level statistical data
• Nepal Living Standard Survey
2. Primary data
• Household questionnaire Survey
• Settlement level FGD
• Traffic Flow Survey
• GPS survey
• SDC check list

40. Survey tools for Project areas
• Household level questionnaire survey
( 450 hh) ( Nepali Conversion)
• Focus group discussion (FGD) at
settlement level ( 30 FGDs)
• Accessibility or Traffic flow survey of
selected road ( 30)
• GPS location of HH intervened ( 600 hh)
• GPS location for PSU

41. Survey tools for control areas
• Household level questionnaire survey
( 150)
• Focus group discussion (FGD) at
settlement level( 30 FGDs)
• GPS location of HH intervened
• GPS location of PSU
• Pre-test of survey tools
• Cluster level orientation

42. Baseline Data Analysis
• Project and Control Areas Comparasion
• Ecological regions
• Clusters
• Caste and Ethnicity
• Descriptive statistical summary measures

43. Output of Baseline Survey Study
• Baseline Survey Report
• GPS location of surveyed HH &
Settlements
• Database of Study report
• Socio-economic Database:
– Household level
– Settlement level
– Traffic survey

44. Major Findings

45. Demography of Sampled Population
• Male population is seen higher both
program and control area (male 52.42% and
female 47.58%).
• Average household size in project area and
control villages was 6. 4 and 6.6
respectively
• Average family size of project area has
slightly decreased.
• average household size of project road
has increased than national level, 5.3
in2003/04. and 4.7 (NLSS 2010/11

46. Demography of Sampled Population
• Average household size of High hill caste
in project is 5.85 ,Muslim ( 7.92)
• In control , Terai caste (5.6), muslim ( 9.38)

47. Dependency ratio of Sampled Population
Region Survey Dependency ratio
clusters
Terai 1 56.48
2 55.93
4 56.75
Terai total 56.52
Hill 1 57.79
2 46.69
3 52.96
4 61.76
Hill total 51.72
Grand Total 54.30
The overall dependency ratio of the survey districts in
different clusters is 54.30 (see Table 2.2a & Table 2.2b),
which is much lower than the decreasing trend of
national average figure of both periods 84.4 ( NLSS
2010/11) and 89 (NLSS 2003/4).

48. Degree of spatial mobility
Table-2.3a: Degree of spatial mobility by eco-regions and project
& control area
Survey Eco- Sample People
Regions Population migrated Migration (%)
Terai 2074 159 7.67
Hill 1760 154 8.75
Project 3834 313 8.16
Terai 734 30 4.09
Hill 581 40 6.88
Control 1315 70 5.32
Total 5149 383 7.44

49. Degree of spatial mobility
Project area Control area
Caste/ethn Sample Sample People Migrat
icity and Populati People Migrati Populat migrat ion
area on migrated on (%) ion ed (%)
High hill
caste 1289 114 8.84 308 18 5.84
Hill Dalits 311 27 8.68 135 8 5.93
Hill
Janajati 723 70 9.68 413 26 6.30
Terai
caste 590 31 5.25 140 4 2.86
Terai
Dalit 539 38 7.05 160 10 6.25
Terai
Janajati 156 15 9.62 84 2 2.38
Musalman 198 18 9.09 75 2 2.67
Other

50. Degree of spatial mobility
Project area Control area
No
of No of
Caste/ethni People People
city and Travell Other Travell Other
Area ed Nepal India countries ed Nepal India countries
High hill
caste 114 27.19 33.33 39.47 18 11.11 27.78 61.11
Hill Dalits 27 3.70 62.96 33.33 8 12.50 75.00 12.50
Hill Janajati 70 28.57 34.29 37.14 26 7.69 15.38 76.92
Terai caste 31 12.90 16.13 70.97 4 50.00 50.00 0.00
Terai Dalit 38 31.58 28.95 39.47 10 60.00 30.00 10.00
Terai
Janajati 15 0.00 53.33 46.67 2 50.00 50.00 0.00
Muslim 18 5.56 22.22 72.22 2 0.00 50.00 50.00
Other caste 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sub-total 313 22.04 34.19 43.77 70 20.00 31.43 48.57
Total 383 21.67 33.68 44.65

51. Literacy Rate
Surveyed Sample % 0f Literate people
clusters Populatio Male Female Both
ns 6years
and
above
N0 % N0 % N0 %
Cluster -I 985 480 92.13 364 78.45 844 85.69
Cluster -II 842 413 94.94 325 79.85 738 87.65
Cluster -III 698 332 91.71 264 78.57 596 85.39
Cluster -IV 951 442 86.84 313 70.81 755 79.39
Project 3476 1667 91.24 1266 76.77 2933 84.38
Cluster -I 358 168 91.30 135 77.59 303 84.64
Cluster -II 348 158 89.77 133 77.33 291 83.62
Cluster -III 199 90 88.24 69 71.13 159 79.90
Cluster -IV 304 149 88.69 101 74.26 250 82.24
Control 1209 565 89.68 438 75.65 1003 82.96

52. THANK YOU
For Comments and
Discussion

53. Why developing methodology for baseline survey
of rural road for RAIDP by World Bank
• Evaluation of impact assessment
• No concrete methodology developed by World
Bank but guidelines.
• Methodological drawbacks in earlier baseline
survey
• developing statistical sound methodology

54. Drawbacks of Earlier Baseline Survey
• Three level of zone of influence is not covered.
• Control village selected is not based on similar
existing level of accessibility to main road network,
basic economic and social facilities
• Questionnaire developed is not in form of
questionnaire rather draft table.
• Household interviewed can not be identified now
because of lack of data base

55. Required data for road alignment and covering
VDCs