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Energy Demand
Projection 2030: A
MAED Based
Approach
FORECASTING
ENERGY MIX AND
ELECTRICITY
DEMAND
1
Contents
List of Figures ............................................................................................................................ 2
List of Tables ............................................................................................................................. 3
List of Abbreviations................................................................................................................... 4
Introduction................................................................................................................................ 5
About the Model......................................................................................................................... 7
Base Case: Assumptions and Results ......................................................................................10
Scenarios and Sensitivities: GDP Growth Rates .......................................................................15
Scenarios and Sensitivities: Sectoral Contribution to the GDP..................................................23
Conclusion................................................................................................................................26
2
List of Figures
Figure 1: The Variable list and output for the MAED model.........................................................7
Figure 2: The Output Sheet for the MAED model........................................................................9
Figure 3: Projections for the number of households ..................................................................10
Figure 4: Sectoral Split of GDP Projections...............................................................................10
Figure 5: Energy Sources for Household Sector Forecasts.......................................................11
Figure 6: Evolution of Energy Mix..............................................................................................12
Figure 7: Electricity Demand Forecast ......................................................................................12
Figure 8: Demand and Supply Forecast....................................................................................13
Figure 9: GDP Projections at 10% Growth Rate ........................................................16
Figure 10: Evolution of Energy Mix: High Growth Scenario ...........................................16
Figure 11: Electricity Demand Forecast: High Growth Scenario......................................17
Figure 12: Demand and Supply Forecasts: High Growth Scenario ..................................18
Figure 13: GDP Projections at 7% Growth Rate ........................................................18
Figure 14: Evolution of Energy Mix: Medium-High Growth Scenario ................................19
Figure 15: Electricity Demand Forecast: Medium-High Growth Scenario...........................19
Figure 16: Demand and Supply Forecasts: Medium-High Growth Scenario .......................20
Figure 17: Sensitivity of Final Installed Capacity on GDP, Transmission Losses and Outage ..21
3
List of Tables
Table 1: Energy Demand Forecast - Base Case Scenario ........................................................11
Table 2: Major Projects in the Pipeline ......................................................................................14
Table 3: Comparison of Electricity Demand Drivers across GDP Growth Scenarios .................15
Table 4: Energy Demand Forecast High Growth Scenario .....................................................16
Table 5: Energy Demand Forecast Medium-High Growth Scenario ..........................................19
Table 6: Electricity Demand and Required Installed Capacity (Agriculture Contribution to the
GDP Percentage Unchanged)...................................................................................................22
Table 7: Electricity Demand and Required Installed Capacity (Manufacturing Contribution to the
GDP Percentage Changed to 25%) ..........................................................................................22
Table 8: Electricity Demand and Required Installed Capacity (No Fuel Replacement at the
Household Level)......................................................................................................................23
Table 9: Electricity Demand and Required Installed Capacity (No Fuel Replacement)..............24
Table 10: Electricity Demand and Required Installed Capacity (Low Economic Growth and No
Fuel Replacement)....................................................................................................................24
4
List of Abbreviations
MAED Model for Analysis of Electricity Demand
IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GWyr Gigawatt Year
MW Megawatt
GWh Gigawatt Hour
GoN Government of Nepal
Kwh Kilowatt Hour
5
Introduction
Nepal has faced an increasing gulf between the demand and supply of energy in the past several
years. More than a third of the population does not have access to electricity and is forced to
depend on traditional fuels for energy requirements. Furthermore, Nepal’s electricity intensity is
around 175 KWh per capita, one of the lowest in the world.
A number of energy/electricity forecasts have been undertaken by multilateral as well as
government agencies. Although these forecasts have considered consumers’ ability and
willingness to pay for electricity, they have failed to take into consideration latent demand.
In order to address the issue of latent demand and come up with a more realistic demand for
energy, including electricity, The National Planning Commission and the Office of the Investment
Board have jointly conducted this study on energy demand. In this study, the MAED (Model for
Analysis of Energy Demand), developed by IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) has been
used. MAED is a scenario based planning tool, where each scenario can be considered a possible
long term development pattern of a country. MAED is a policy tool which is useful in forecasting
a country’s total energy (and electricity) demand given its economic, social and technological
evolution pattern. This approach takes into account the evolution of the social needs of the
population, such as the demand for transportation, lighting and air conditioning. The advantage
of MAED over other models is that it allows for flexibility in switching between energy sources,
thus reflecting structural changes in the economy over time.
The demand for energy comes from industry, transportation, household and service sectors. The
demand for energy in Industry sector is comprised of demand in the agriculture, construction and
mining and manufacturing sub-sectors. Energy demand in transportation encompasses of
demand generated for freight transport and passenger transport. The household section is broken
down into rural and urban households. Energy demand in the household sector takes into account
heating, cooking, and other appliances.
The main output in this context is the energy, and not solely electricity requirements, for Nepal in
the year 2030. Although electricity demand can be derived from the output, the readers must
realize that the model encompasses all form of energy sources. However, it does not take into
account the willingness and ability to pay for the energy/electricity.
6
The model includes certain scenarios around the base case. These scenarios consist of variability
in GDP (Low, Base case, High, Higher), Contribution of the manufacturing and service sub-
sectors to the economy, and fuel substitution in household as well as a combination of these.
7
About the Model
The MAED model forecasts medium- to long-term energy demand based on the following:
I. Socio-economy
II. Technology
III. Demography
The model presents a framework for
evaluating the impact on energy
demand by certain changes in the
overall macroeconomic picture of a
nation as well as the standard of
living of population. Demand for
energy is disaggregate into a
various end-use categories. The
demand for energy is affected by a
number of variables, such as
demography (urban/rural
population, population growth rate,
potential/active labour force), GDP
(Total GDP and GDP structure by
main economic sectors), Energy intensities for industry (agriculture, construction, and mining),
Modes of Freight Transportation and Passenger Transportation, Intra/Inter-city Transportation,
and household usages (Heating, Cooling, Kitchen, Water Heating). The total demand for energy
is combined into the following energy consumer sectors:
 Industry (includes Agriculture, Construction, Mining, and Manufacturing)
 Transportation
 Service
 Household
Since the model takes into account the macroeconomic as well as household-level picture, the
starting point of the model is the base year energy consumption patterns. This requires collection,
verification, and in some cases, estimation, of certain data. Since this exercise is extremely data-
Figure 1: The Variable list and output for the MAED model
8
heavy, a lot of compilation and reconciliation of data is a pre-requisite. Certain derivations and
calculation of input parameters should be completed before using the model in order to establish
a base year energy balance. The base year energy balance presents the current state of energy
in a country and thus contributes to the development of future scenarios, based on its situation,
legal framework, and development objectives. Such scenarios can be divided into two groups:
scenarios based on socio-economic objectives and scenarios based on technological factors,
such as efficiency and penetration of different energy sources, such as biomass, solar, hydro,
fuel, and thermal. The model, however, does not take into consideration the affordability of such
energy sources.
Proper estimates can be derived from the model if the assumptions, especially for social,
economic, and technology are consistent throughout. In order to use the model effectively, the
user should have a good understanding of the interplay among various driving forces and
determining factors. This is because the model output is a mere reflection of the assumptions-
based scenarios. Reasonable estimates are derived by evaluating the output and modifying initial
assumptions.
Since the model emphasizes on energy demand, various energy forms compete for a given end-
use category. For instance, fossil fuels and electricity compete for freight transportation. Similarly,
biomass and electricity compete for cooking purposes. Therefore, the model derives the end-user
demand, in terms of useful energy, and then converts the useful energy into final energy. This
process takes into consideration penetration and efficiency of all energy sources, including
electricity.
Since the demand for different types of fossil fuels depends on technological shifts as well as
relative prices, the model does not break down demand for fossil fuels into demand for coal, gas,
or oil. However, the model estimates substitution of fossil fuels by other energy forms, including
electricity, solar, and biomass. The substitution of fossil fuels largely depends on policy decisions
and the stage of formulation of such decisions; hence, this can be covered by scenarios.
9
The final energy demand output is given in terms of GWyr. The final output page contains the
following sections:
I. Final Energy Demand By Energy Form
II. Final Energy Demand per Capita and per GDP
III. Final Energy Demand By Sector
Figure 2: The Output Sheet for the MAED model
10
Base Case: Assumptions and Results
Base Case Assumptions
Due to the exceptional events of 2015, 2014 is
considered as the base year for the demand
forecast. Nepal’s base year population of 27.6
million grows at 1.35% per year and reaches 39
million by 2030. Projected demographic trends
indicate increasing rates of urbanization and lower
family sizes. As a result, urban population grows
from 40% in 2014 to 49% in 2030 and the number
of households increases from 5.4 million in 2014
to 7. 7 million. Both demographic trends indicate
to higher per capita electricity usage over time.
GDP is assumed to grow at a constant real rate of
5%. The current constitution of GDP is heavily
dependent on agriculture. The agriculture sector’s
contribution to the GDP is 33%, and this share is
expected to decrease over time to 22% and be
replaced by mining and manufacturing. The share
of mining and manufacturing in GDP is expected
to increase from 7% currently to 12% in 2030. The service sector currently accounts for 52% of
GDP and is expected to contribute about the same (54%) in 2030.
The base case assumes that electricity will displace many of the currently used fuels over time.
By 2030, in the agriculture sector, irrigation will be powered exclusively by electricity. Electricity
will also partially replace fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, etc.) and motor fuels (diesel and petrol) in
the construction, mining and manufacturing sector. In the transportation sector, freight transport
consumes the most amount of energy (70%) and its share increases to 85% in 2030. Electricity
will replace a small fraction of total freight transportation energy requirement due to some usage
of electric powered trains and battery powered vehicles. Similarly, electricity will also displace
Figure 3: Projections for the number of
households
Figure 4: Sectoral Split of GDP Projections
11
motor fuels in the personal transportation with electric buses, cars and mass transit converting to
electricity and battery powered systems.
Electricity will also replace fossil fuels and
traditional fuels in urban households. Electricity
usage for space and water heating is expected to
grow over time. Moreover, electricity is also
expected to displace LP gas as the dominant
energy source for cooking; electricity will 52% of
total cooking energy for urban households in 2030
compared to a little over 3% at present. Similarly,
electricity usage for rural households also
increases, albeit at a slower rate. Electricity will
account for 45% of total household cooking energy
for rural households. Collectively, these changes in
the energy consumption pattern will decrease the
share of traditional sources of energy from 77% to 55%. The share of electricity consumption,
meanwhile, will grow from 4% to 19%.
Base Case Results
Table 1 shows Nepal’s total energy
demand. The share of electricity in
total energy gradually increases from
6% at present to 23% of total energy
demand in 2030. The share of
electricity in the current energy mix is
higher than statistics cited by WECS
estimates because the base demand
for electricity is assumed to constitute
energy obtained from the use of diesel
generators as well as demand that would otherwise exist in the event of reliable power supply.
The demand projection shows that due to increasing urbanization and consumer preferences, the
dominance of traditional sources of fuel will decline over time. Traditional sources of fuels will be
displaced by electricity, and other sources (solar and modern biomass). The energy share of fossil
Item Unit 2014 2020 2025 2030
Traditional fuels GWyr 7.636 7.271 5.635 5.648
Modern biomass GWyr 0.530 0.707 0.886 1.091
Electricity GWyr 0.707 1.493 2.462 3.817
Soft solar GWyr 0.281 0.339 0.397 0.464
Fossil fuels GWyr 1.654 1.884 2.082 2.257
Motor fuels GWyr 1.012 3.385 3.387 3.263
Total GWyr 11.821 15.079 15.849 16.540
Figure 5: Energy Sources for Household
Sector Forecasts
Table 1: Energy Demand Forecast - Base Case Scenario
12
fuels (primarily coal and LP gas) will remain constant. While demand for energy from fossil fuels
will increase due to manufacturing and domestic demand, it will be also decrease as electricity
will displace it as the default energy in manufacturing and cooking.
The share of motor fuels will initially increase
sharply because increased economic activity will
increase the demand for transportation services.
Over time, this share is reduced, because by 2030
one half of the total freight transport will be
powered by electricity (through vehicles such as
trains and cable cars).Electricity powered cars,
buses and trains will also replace diesel and
gasoline. However, share of motor fuels in the
transportation sector will still be very high (90%)
compared to electricity (10%) because of the
efficiency of electricity powered transport. Put
differently, although the same amount of freight
and passengers is transported using motor fuels and electricity, a lot more motor fuel is required
to do the same work because electricity is by far the more energy efficient source. Therefore the
relative share of motor fuels does not decline precipitously from the initial increase. Figure 6
outlines the trend of the share of motor fuels in Nepal’s energy mix.
The final electricity demand in 2030 is 3.817
gigawatt years, which is equivalent to 33,433
gigawatt hours (GWh). A final energy
demand of 33,433 GWh equates to 6,358
MW at 60% system capacity factor Since the
aforementioned installed capacity is for final
usage, a reserve capacity is required for
transmission losses (1,211 MW) and outages
(2,523 MW). Assuming that daily demand
load curve remains the same, the required
installed capacity to service demand in 2030
is 10,092MW.
Figure 7: Electricity Demand Forecast
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
GWh
Electricity Demand
Energy Demand (incl. Transmission Losses & Outage Reserve)
Peak Demand (MW)
Figure 6: Evolution of Energy Mix
13
The required installed capacity to service demand is sensitive to the system capacity factor. The
base case analysis assumes a capacity factor of 60%; this means that a 1MW plant will operate
at full capacity for 5,256 hours during any given year (60% of the time). Given the current
imperative of building storage plants and anticipated capacity increases in other renewables such
as wind and solar, the system capacity will likely be lower than 60%. At a system capacity factor
of 50% and 47%, the required installed capacities to service demand in 2030 will be 12,000MW
and 12,757MW respectively.
Similarly, in the base case scenario, per capita energy demand for electricity is approximately 980
KWh.
Energy Supply
The supply of electricity to meet demand
is primarily based on run of river hydro
power generation with storage projects
and renewables as supplementary
sources. According to the current supply
schedule, there will be sufficient
generation capacity to meet the base
case demand in 2030 but there will be
persistent deficits in the intervening
years. This points to the need for careful
planning in sequencing of projects in the
medium and long term to match supply
with demand. Efficient planning is all the more important because hydro power projects have long
development cycles and availability (reliable supply of power) is essential to sustained growth in
electricity demand.
Table 2 shows major projects (with installed capacities of over 100 MW) that are expected to
come into operation within 2030. Timely commissioning of these projects will be critical because
of their impact on the electricity supply.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Current
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Demand and Supply Scenario (MW)
Total Peak Demand
Total Installed Capacity
Figure 8: Demand and Supply Forecasts
14
Major Projects
Major Projects Installed Capacity CoD
Upper Tamakosi 456 2018
Rasuwagadi 111 2018
Middle Bhotekosi 102 2018
Tamakosi V 227 2022
Upper Karnali/Arun III 305 2023
Upper Arun 335 2023
Dudhkosi 228 2025
Budigandaki 1,200 2025
Nalsing Gad 410 2025
West Seti 750 2025
Tamakosi III 650 2025
Upper Trisuli 216 2025
Pancheshwar 3,360 2030
Table 2: Major Projects in the Pipeline
15
Scenarios and Sensitivities: GDP Growth Rates
Scenarios around the GDP
As mentioned in the introductory section, this study includes certain scenarios and sensitivities
around the base case. The GDP scenarios are based around the following average GDP growth
rates: 7%, and 10%. Table 3 below highlights some of the significant factors that lead to higher
demand for electricity when GDP growth rates are higher than the base case of 5%. Different
economic sectors grow at dissimilar rates. For example, when the overall economy grows at 7%
between 2020 and 2025, the mining sector grows at a rapid rate of 14% but the agriculture sector
exhibits a more muted growth rate of 4%. Since the energy intensities of different sectors of the
economy are also different from one another, the resulting change in demand is different from the
change in overall economic output. Energy intensive activities such as mining, manufacturing and
commerce (freight transport) grow at a more rapid rate than less energy intensive sectors such
as agriculture, services and household consumption. The net result is that the demand for
electricity grows at a faster pace than that of the overall economy.
Base Case (5% GDP Growth) 7% GDP Growth Rate 10% GDP Growth Rate
2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030
Population (Millions) 29.89 31.97 34.18 29.89 31.97 34.18 29.89 31.97 34.18
GDP (USB billions) 24.11 30.78 39.28 27.01 37.88 53.12 31.88 51.34 82.69
GDP per Capita (USD
per person) 807 963 1,149 904 1,185 1,554 1,067 1,606 2,419
Sectoral GDP Growth
Rates
Agriculture 3% 2% 2% 5% 4% 4% 8% 7% 7%
Construction 6% 6% 6% 8% 8% 8% 11% 11% 11%
Mining 17% 12% 10% 19% 14% 12% 22% 18% 16%
Manufacturing 8% 8% 8% 10% 10% 10% 14% 13% 13%
Service 5% 5% 5% 7% 7% 7% 10% 10% 10%
Energy 19% 13% 11% 21% 15% 13% 25% 18% 16%
Total Electricity
Demand (GWhr) 13,079 21,567 33,437 13,666 23,521 38,299 14,664 27,217 48,706
Electricity Usage by
Sector
Agriculture 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Construction, Mining
and
Manufacturing 30% 30% 32% 32% 34% 37% 35% 40% 46%
Service Sector 6% 7% 9% 6% 7% 9% 6% 8% 8%
Freight Transport 4% 6% 6% 4% 6% 7% 5% 7% 9%
Passenger Transport 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Household 57% 54% 51% 55% 50% 44% 51% 43% 35%
Table 3: Comparison of Electricity Demand Drivers Across GDP Growth Scenarios
16
Case 1: High GDP (10% GDP Growth)
The GDP of Nepal at 10% average
annual growth rate is estimated to
reach USD 83 Billion, which is almost
5 times the GDP in 2014. A higher
GDP rate increases energy/electricity
requirements. A higher GDP growth
rate also alters the target energy mix.
As we can observe from the diagram on the right
(energy mix), motor fuels will increase sharply
because of increased economic activity, which in turn,
will increase the demand for transportation services.
Unlike the base case, the share of motor fuels will not
decrease over time, and will, instead, plateau at 27%.
Although there will be replacement of fuel in the
transport sector, the demand for energy will be so high
that the contribution of motor fuels to the energy mix
will not decrease. It can also be observed that the
share of the traditional fuels has gone
down considerably (from 65% in 2014 to
25% in 2015). In terms of energy mix,
the share of traditional fuels is lower in
this case than in the base case. High
economic growth mandates efficient
Item Unit 2014 2020 2025 2030
Traditional fuels GWyr 7.636 7.272 6.641 5.666
Modern biomass GWyr 0.53 0.709 0.896 1.121
Electricity GWyr 0.707 1.674 3.107 5.56
Soft solar GWyr 0.281 0.34 0.401 0.475
Fossil fuels GWyr 1.654 2.13 2.709 3.497
Motor fuels GWyr 1.012 4.181 5.097 6.055
Total GWyr 11.820 16.306 18.851 22.374
Figure 9: GDP Projections at 10% Growth Rate
Item Unit 2014 2020 2025 2030
Traditional fuels GWyr 7.636 7.272 6.641 5.666
Modern biomass GWyr 0.53 0.709 0.896 1.121
Electricity GWyr 0.707 1.674 3.107 5.56
Soft solar GWyr 0.281 0.34 0.401 0.475
Fossil fuels GWyr 1.654 2.13 2.709 3.497
Motor fuels GWyr 1.012 4.181 5.097 6.055
Total GWyr 11.820 16.306 18.851 22.374
18
32
51
83
5
25
45
65
85
105
2014 2020 2025 2030
USDBillions
GDP at 10% Growth Rate
65%
45%
35%
25%
6%
10%
16%
25%
14%
13%
14% 16%
9%
26% 27% 27%
7% 6% 7% 7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014 2020 2025 2030
Energy Mix
Traditional fuels Electricity Fossil fuels
Motor Fuels Others
Figure 10: Evolution of Energy Mix: High
Growth Scenario
Table 4: Energy Demand Forecast High Growth Scenario
17
energy sources; hence the decrease in the traditional fuels’ contribution to the energy mix.
The final energy demand for 2030, in this scenario is estimated to be 22.374 GWyr.
The final electricity demand in 2030 is 5.56 gigawatt years, which is equivalent to 77,312 gigawatt
hours (GWh). A final energy demand of 77,312 GWh equates to 14,702 MW. As discussed earlier,
the aforementioned installed capacity and demand takes into account transmission losses and
outages.
Keeping the supply situation
unchanged, the system will be in a state
of excess demand in 2030. In this
growth scenario, the peak demand is
estimated to surpass the installed
capacity by about 2000 MW. Under this
scenario, it is estimated that the system
will have severe power shortages until
2024, when the peak demand is
estimated to be more than double the
installed capacity. This gap will be reduced in 2025.
Figure 11: Electricity Demand Forecast: High Growth
Scenario
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
MW
GWh
Electricity Demand
Energy Demand (incl. Transmission Losses & Outage…
18
The required installed capacity to service
demand is sensitive to the system capacity
factor. If the peak demand were to be
addressed, the system would need an
installed capacity of 15,000 MW.
Case 2: Medium-High GDP (7% GDP Growth)
The GDP of Nepal at 7% average
annual growth rate is estimated to
reach USD 53 Billion, which is
almost 3 times the GDP in 2014.
As the GDP growth rate is higher
than that of the base case,
energy/electricity requirements
will also increase
correspondingly. The expected
energy mix in 2030 will also be altered.
As we can observe from the diagram in the next page (energy mix), motor fuels will increase
sharply because of increased economic activity, which in turn, will increase the demand for
transportation services. Like the base case, the share of motor fuels will decrease over time, albeit
by one percentage point.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Current
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Demand and Supply Scenario (MW)
Total Peak Demand
Total Installed Capacity
Figure 13: GDP Projections at 7% Growth Rate
Item Unit 2014 2020 2025 2030
Traditional fuels GWyr 7.636 7.272 6.641 5.666
Modern biomass GWyr 0.53 0.709 0.896 1.121
Electricity GWyr 0.707 1.674 3.107 5.56
Soft solar GWyr 0.281 0.34 0.401 0.475
Fossil fuels GWyr 1.654 2.13 2.709 3.497
Motor fuels GWyr 1.012 4.181 5.097 6.055
Total GWyr 11.820 16.306 18.851 22.374
18
27
38
53
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
2014 2020 2025 2030
USDBillions
GDP at 7% Growth Rate
Figure 12: Demand and Supply Forecasts: High
Growth Scenario
19
In addition, in this scenario as
compared to the base case scenario,
there will be a higher rate of traditional
fuel substitution (from 65% of the total
energy mix in 2014 to 31% of the total
energy mix in 2030). From the graph,
we can observe that the proportion of
fossil fuels will remain unchanged and
that there will be a certain rise in the
contribution from alternative energy
sources.
The final energy demand for 2030, in this scenario is estimated to be 18.399 GWyr, which is about
2 GWyr higher than in the base case and
about 3 GWyr less than the energy demand
for the high-growth scenario.
The final electricity demand in 2030 is 4.372
gigawatt years, which is equivalent to 60,793
gigawatt hours (GWh) after taking into
account transmission losses and reserve
outages. A final energy demand of 60,793 GWh
equates to 11,560 MW.
Keeping the supply situation unchanged from the
base case, the system will be able to meet peak
demand. Under this high growth scenario, the peak
demand is estimated to be almost equal to the
installed capacity. Under this scenario, it is estimated that the system will have severe power
Item Unit 2014 2020 2025 2030
Traditional fuels GWyr 7.636 7.272 6.637 5.654
Modern biomass GWyr 0.53 0.708 0.889 1.1
Electricity GWyr 0.707 1.56 2.685 4.372
Soft solar GWyr 0.281 0.339 0.398 0.467
Fossil fuels GWyr 1.654 1.975 2.299 2.653
Motor fuels GWyr 1.012 3.682 3.978 4.153
Total GWyr 11.820 15.536 16.886 18.399
Figure 15: Electricity Demand Forecast:
Medium-High Growth Scenario
65%
47%
39%
31%
6%
10%
16%
24%
14%
13% 14% 14%
9%
24% 24% 23%
7% 7% 8% 9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014 2020 2025 2030
Energy Mix
Traditional fuels Electricity Fossil fuels Motor Fuels Others
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
MW
GWh
Electricity Demand
Energy Demand (incl. Transmission Losses…
Table 5: Energy Demand Forecast Medium-High
Growth Scenario
Figure 14: Evolution of Energy Mix: Medium-High Growth
Scenario
20
shortages until 2024, when the peak demand is estimated to be more than double the installed
capacity. This gap will end in 2025; however, the system will run deficits after 2025 until 2030.
The demand in 2030 will be met since Pancheswar Multipurpose project is expected to
commission that year.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Current
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Demand and Supply Scenario (MW)
Total Peak Demand
Total Installed Capacity
Figure 16: Demand and Supply Forecasts
21
1,211
MW
2,523 MW → 10,092 MW
1,892 MW → 9,461 MW
1,336 MW → 8,904 MW
1,634
MW
2,664 MW → 10,655 MW
1,998 MW → 9,989 MW
1,410 MW → 9,401 MW
2,119
MW
2,826 MW → 11,302 MW
2,119 MW → 10,596 MW
1,496 MW → 9,973 MW
1,387
MW
2,890 MW → 11,560 MW
2,186 MW → 10,838 MW
1,530 MW → 10,200 MW
1,871
MW
3,051 MW → 12,206 MW
2,289 MW → 11,443 MW
1,615 MW → 10,770 MW
2,428
MW
3,237 MW → 12,947 MW
2,428 MW → 12,138 MW
1,714 MW → 11,424 MW
16%
SystemLosses 20%
25%
Outages&Reserves
25%
15%
20%
25%
15%
20%
25%
15%
20%
Figure 17: Sensitivity of Final Installed Capacity on GDP, Transmission Losses and Outages
SystemLosses
Outages&Reserves
SystemLosses
Outages&Reserves
16%
20%
25%
25%
15%
20%
25%
15%
20%
25%
15%
20%
16%
20%
25%
25%
15%
20%
25%
15%
20%
25%
15%
20%
22
1,764
MW
3,675 MW → 14,702 MW
2,757 MW → 13,783 MW
1,946 MW → 12,972 MW
2,380
MW
3,881 MW → 15,522 MW
2,910 MW → 14,552 MW
2,054 MW → 13,696 MW
3,087
MW
4,116 MW → 16,465 MW
3,087 MW → 15,436 MW
2,179 MW → 14,528 MW
23
Scenarios and Sensitivities: Sectoral Contribution to the GDP
In the base case we have assumed that the
agriculture sector’s contribution to the GDP will
decrease from the existing 33% to 22%. However,
there is a good chance that agriculture might still
contribute to a third of the economy. In this case,
keeping all other factors constant (as same as the
base case), the total energy demanded in 2030 is
expected to be 30,012 GWh, which is about 3,000
GWh lower than the energy demand in the base case. Similarly, the total required installed
capacity, after taking reserves for transmission losses and outages, is 9,059 MW, which is 10%
lower than the required installed capacity of the base case.
The second scenario around sectoral contribution to the GDP is the shift in manufacturing sector’s
contribution to the GDP. In this scenario, we have assumed that the manufacturing sector will
account for a fourth of the economy in 2030, from its current state of a mere 2.4%. The contribution
of certain other sectors, including agriculture,
mining, and services have been reduced to
accommodate for the growth in manufacturing’s
contribution to the GDP. The final energy
demanded in this scenario is 40,874 GWh and the
installed capacity required to meet this demand,
including reserve for transmission losses and
outages, is 12,338 MW. The electricity demanded
in this scenario is about 7,000 GWh greater than
the energy demanded in the base case scenario. Similarly, the installed capacity required to meet
the demand in this scenario is 22% greater than that of the base case scenario.
Scenarios around Fuel Substitution
In the base case scenario, in terms of fuel replacement at the household level, we have assumed
the following:
Agriculture Contribution to
the GDP Percentage
Unchanged
Electricity
Demand (GWh)
30,012
Required
Installed Capacity
(MW)
9,059
Manufacturing Contribution
to the GDP Percentage
Changed to 25%
Electricity
Demand (GWh)
40,874
Required
Installed
Capacity (MW)
12,338
Table 6: Electricity Demand and Required
Installed Capacity (Agriculture Contribution to
the GDP Percentage Unchanged)
Table 7: Electricity Demand and Required
Installed Capacity (Manufacturing Contribution
to the GDP Percentage Changed to 25%)
24
In urban households, electricity will replace fossil fuels and traditional sources of fuels
 Electricity will provide 63% of space heating requirements in 2030 compared to 20% in
2014
 Electricity will provide 8% of water heating requirements in 2030 compared to 3% in 2014
 Electricity will provide 52% of cooking requirements in 2030 compared to 3% in 2014
Similarly, electricity usage in rural households also increases over time, albeit at a slower
intensity
o Penetration of electricity for space heating, water heating, and cooking in 2030 is
25%, 4%, 45% respectively
In this scenario, we will assume that there will be
no fuel substitution at the household level. We will
assume that electricity will provide only 20% of the
space heating requirements, only 3% of the water
heating requirements, and only 3% of cooking
requirements at the urban household level.
Similarly, it is assumed that penetration of
electricity for space and water heating and cooking is zero. In this scenario, the final electricity
demand is estimated to be 24,239 GWh and the total required installed capacity to meet this
demand is 7,316 MW (28% less than the base case scenario).
In the base case, certain assumptions on fuel replacement in the transport sector are made. The
following assumptions were made:
 Freight transport consumes the most amount of energy (70% in 2014) in the
transportation sector and its share increases to 85% in 2030)
 Electricity will displace some amount of motor fuel based transport (6.5% of total
energy in required for freight)
 Electricity will also be displace motor fuels in the personal transportation sector (with
electric buses, cars and mass transit)
No Fuel Replacement at
the Household Level
Electricity Demand
(GWh)
24,239
Required Installed
Capacity (MW)
7,316
Table 8: Electricity Demand and Required
Installed Capacity (No Fuel Replacement at the
Household Level)
25
In this scenario, it is assumed that there is no fuel
substitution in the transport industry, combined
with no fuel substitution at the household level
(zero fuel substitution in aggregate). The final
electricity demand in this scenario is 21,357 GWh,
which is about 37% less than the base case.
Similarly, the installed capacity required to meet
this demand is 6,447 MW, which is about 4,000 MW less than the base case. Although the energy
demand and required installed capacity are significantly low in this scenario, the country will be
forced to import fossil fuels, and hence widen the trade deficit, in order to meet energy demand.
Low Growth and No Fuel Substitution
Under this scenario, we assume that there will be no fuel substitution (same as the case above)
combined with a low economic growth. For the low
economic growth part, an average growth rate of
4% is assumed. In this scenario, the final
electricity demand is estimated to be 19,692
GWh. Similarly, the total required installed
capacity to meet this demand, including reserve
for transmission losses and outages, is 5,944 MW
(41% less than the total required installed capacity
from the base case). The total installed capacity, excluding reserve for transmission losses and
outages, in this scenario is 3,745 MW. This figure is similar to the figure derived by Nepal
Electricity Authority in their electricity demand forecast.
No Fuel Replacement
Electricity Demand
(GWh)
21,357
Required Installed
Capacity (MW)
6,447
Low Economic Growth
and No Fuel
Replacement
Electricity Demand
(GWh)
19,692
Required Installed
Capacity (MW)
5,944
Table 9: Electricity Demand and Required
Installed Capacity (No Fuel Replacement)
Table 10: Electricity Demand and Required
Installed Capacity (Low Economic Growth and
No Fuel Replacement)
26
Conclusion
Nepal’s energy problems are severe: there is an increasing gap between demand and supply of
electricity and more than a third of the population does not have access to electricity. In the
absence of a proper supply mechanism, many believe that the demand for electricity has been
suppressed. Although many studies have been undertaken to come up with a realistic demand of
energy/electricity, these studies have failed to consider latent demand.
This energy demand forecast, jointly conducted by The National Planning Commission and the
Office of the Investment Board, tackles the latent demand issue, and has come up with a more
realistic demand for energy, including electricity. The study uses the MAED model, which is a
scenario-based planning tool. The energy demand, according to MAED, is derived from different
sectors of the economy, transport/freight preferences and household usages.
In the base case scenario, the energy demand in the year 2030, based on certain assumptions
related to socio-economy, technology, and demography is estimated to be 16.54 GWyr, out of
which the demand for electricity is 3.817 GWyr. The required installed capacity to meet this
demand, at 60% capacity factor, after considering reserve for transmission losses and outages,
is 10,092 MW. There are certain scenarios based on variable GDP growth rates, fuel substitution,
and composition of the GDP. The outputs from these scenarios hover around the base case
results.

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  • 1. Energy Demand Projection 2030: A MAED Based Approach FORECASTING ENERGY MIX AND ELECTRICITY DEMAND
  • 2. 1 Contents List of Figures ............................................................................................................................ 2 List of Tables ............................................................................................................................. 3 List of Abbreviations................................................................................................................... 4 Introduction................................................................................................................................ 5 About the Model......................................................................................................................... 7 Base Case: Assumptions and Results ......................................................................................10 Scenarios and Sensitivities: GDP Growth Rates .......................................................................15 Scenarios and Sensitivities: Sectoral Contribution to the GDP..................................................23 Conclusion................................................................................................................................26
  • 3. 2 List of Figures Figure 1: The Variable list and output for the MAED model.........................................................7 Figure 2: The Output Sheet for the MAED model........................................................................9 Figure 3: Projections for the number of households ..................................................................10 Figure 4: Sectoral Split of GDP Projections...............................................................................10 Figure 5: Energy Sources for Household Sector Forecasts.......................................................11 Figure 6: Evolution of Energy Mix..............................................................................................12 Figure 7: Electricity Demand Forecast ......................................................................................12 Figure 8: Demand and Supply Forecast....................................................................................13 Figure 9: GDP Projections at 10% Growth Rate ........................................................16 Figure 10: Evolution of Energy Mix: High Growth Scenario ...........................................16 Figure 11: Electricity Demand Forecast: High Growth Scenario......................................17 Figure 12: Demand and Supply Forecasts: High Growth Scenario ..................................18 Figure 13: GDP Projections at 7% Growth Rate ........................................................18 Figure 14: Evolution of Energy Mix: Medium-High Growth Scenario ................................19 Figure 15: Electricity Demand Forecast: Medium-High Growth Scenario...........................19 Figure 16: Demand and Supply Forecasts: Medium-High Growth Scenario .......................20 Figure 17: Sensitivity of Final Installed Capacity on GDP, Transmission Losses and Outage ..21
  • 4. 3 List of Tables Table 1: Energy Demand Forecast - Base Case Scenario ........................................................11 Table 2: Major Projects in the Pipeline ......................................................................................14 Table 3: Comparison of Electricity Demand Drivers across GDP Growth Scenarios .................15 Table 4: Energy Demand Forecast High Growth Scenario .....................................................16 Table 5: Energy Demand Forecast Medium-High Growth Scenario ..........................................19 Table 6: Electricity Demand and Required Installed Capacity (Agriculture Contribution to the GDP Percentage Unchanged)...................................................................................................22 Table 7: Electricity Demand and Required Installed Capacity (Manufacturing Contribution to the GDP Percentage Changed to 25%) ..........................................................................................22 Table 8: Electricity Demand and Required Installed Capacity (No Fuel Replacement at the Household Level)......................................................................................................................23 Table 9: Electricity Demand and Required Installed Capacity (No Fuel Replacement)..............24 Table 10: Electricity Demand and Required Installed Capacity (Low Economic Growth and No Fuel Replacement)....................................................................................................................24
  • 5. 4 List of Abbreviations MAED Model for Analysis of Electricity Demand IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency GDP Gross Domestic Product GWyr Gigawatt Year MW Megawatt GWh Gigawatt Hour GoN Government of Nepal Kwh Kilowatt Hour
  • 6. 5 Introduction Nepal has faced an increasing gulf between the demand and supply of energy in the past several years. More than a third of the population does not have access to electricity and is forced to depend on traditional fuels for energy requirements. Furthermore, Nepal’s electricity intensity is around 175 KWh per capita, one of the lowest in the world. A number of energy/electricity forecasts have been undertaken by multilateral as well as government agencies. Although these forecasts have considered consumers’ ability and willingness to pay for electricity, they have failed to take into consideration latent demand. In order to address the issue of latent demand and come up with a more realistic demand for energy, including electricity, The National Planning Commission and the Office of the Investment Board have jointly conducted this study on energy demand. In this study, the MAED (Model for Analysis of Energy Demand), developed by IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) has been used. MAED is a scenario based planning tool, where each scenario can be considered a possible long term development pattern of a country. MAED is a policy tool which is useful in forecasting a country’s total energy (and electricity) demand given its economic, social and technological evolution pattern. This approach takes into account the evolution of the social needs of the population, such as the demand for transportation, lighting and air conditioning. The advantage of MAED over other models is that it allows for flexibility in switching between energy sources, thus reflecting structural changes in the economy over time. The demand for energy comes from industry, transportation, household and service sectors. The demand for energy in Industry sector is comprised of demand in the agriculture, construction and mining and manufacturing sub-sectors. Energy demand in transportation encompasses of demand generated for freight transport and passenger transport. The household section is broken down into rural and urban households. Energy demand in the household sector takes into account heating, cooking, and other appliances. The main output in this context is the energy, and not solely electricity requirements, for Nepal in the year 2030. Although electricity demand can be derived from the output, the readers must realize that the model encompasses all form of energy sources. However, it does not take into account the willingness and ability to pay for the energy/electricity.
  • 7. 6 The model includes certain scenarios around the base case. These scenarios consist of variability in GDP (Low, Base case, High, Higher), Contribution of the manufacturing and service sub- sectors to the economy, and fuel substitution in household as well as a combination of these.
  • 8. 7 About the Model The MAED model forecasts medium- to long-term energy demand based on the following: I. Socio-economy II. Technology III. Demography The model presents a framework for evaluating the impact on energy demand by certain changes in the overall macroeconomic picture of a nation as well as the standard of living of population. Demand for energy is disaggregate into a various end-use categories. The demand for energy is affected by a number of variables, such as demography (urban/rural population, population growth rate, potential/active labour force), GDP (Total GDP and GDP structure by main economic sectors), Energy intensities for industry (agriculture, construction, and mining), Modes of Freight Transportation and Passenger Transportation, Intra/Inter-city Transportation, and household usages (Heating, Cooling, Kitchen, Water Heating). The total demand for energy is combined into the following energy consumer sectors:  Industry (includes Agriculture, Construction, Mining, and Manufacturing)  Transportation  Service  Household Since the model takes into account the macroeconomic as well as household-level picture, the starting point of the model is the base year energy consumption patterns. This requires collection, verification, and in some cases, estimation, of certain data. Since this exercise is extremely data- Figure 1: The Variable list and output for the MAED model
  • 9. 8 heavy, a lot of compilation and reconciliation of data is a pre-requisite. Certain derivations and calculation of input parameters should be completed before using the model in order to establish a base year energy balance. The base year energy balance presents the current state of energy in a country and thus contributes to the development of future scenarios, based on its situation, legal framework, and development objectives. Such scenarios can be divided into two groups: scenarios based on socio-economic objectives and scenarios based on technological factors, such as efficiency and penetration of different energy sources, such as biomass, solar, hydro, fuel, and thermal. The model, however, does not take into consideration the affordability of such energy sources. Proper estimates can be derived from the model if the assumptions, especially for social, economic, and technology are consistent throughout. In order to use the model effectively, the user should have a good understanding of the interplay among various driving forces and determining factors. This is because the model output is a mere reflection of the assumptions- based scenarios. Reasonable estimates are derived by evaluating the output and modifying initial assumptions. Since the model emphasizes on energy demand, various energy forms compete for a given end- use category. For instance, fossil fuels and electricity compete for freight transportation. Similarly, biomass and electricity compete for cooking purposes. Therefore, the model derives the end-user demand, in terms of useful energy, and then converts the useful energy into final energy. This process takes into consideration penetration and efficiency of all energy sources, including electricity. Since the demand for different types of fossil fuels depends on technological shifts as well as relative prices, the model does not break down demand for fossil fuels into demand for coal, gas, or oil. However, the model estimates substitution of fossil fuels by other energy forms, including electricity, solar, and biomass. The substitution of fossil fuels largely depends on policy decisions and the stage of formulation of such decisions; hence, this can be covered by scenarios.
  • 10. 9 The final energy demand output is given in terms of GWyr. The final output page contains the following sections: I. Final Energy Demand By Energy Form II. Final Energy Demand per Capita and per GDP III. Final Energy Demand By Sector Figure 2: The Output Sheet for the MAED model
  • 11. 10 Base Case: Assumptions and Results Base Case Assumptions Due to the exceptional events of 2015, 2014 is considered as the base year for the demand forecast. Nepal’s base year population of 27.6 million grows at 1.35% per year and reaches 39 million by 2030. Projected demographic trends indicate increasing rates of urbanization and lower family sizes. As a result, urban population grows from 40% in 2014 to 49% in 2030 and the number of households increases from 5.4 million in 2014 to 7. 7 million. Both demographic trends indicate to higher per capita electricity usage over time. GDP is assumed to grow at a constant real rate of 5%. The current constitution of GDP is heavily dependent on agriculture. The agriculture sector’s contribution to the GDP is 33%, and this share is expected to decrease over time to 22% and be replaced by mining and manufacturing. The share of mining and manufacturing in GDP is expected to increase from 7% currently to 12% in 2030. The service sector currently accounts for 52% of GDP and is expected to contribute about the same (54%) in 2030. The base case assumes that electricity will displace many of the currently used fuels over time. By 2030, in the agriculture sector, irrigation will be powered exclusively by electricity. Electricity will also partially replace fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, etc.) and motor fuels (diesel and petrol) in the construction, mining and manufacturing sector. In the transportation sector, freight transport consumes the most amount of energy (70%) and its share increases to 85% in 2030. Electricity will replace a small fraction of total freight transportation energy requirement due to some usage of electric powered trains and battery powered vehicles. Similarly, electricity will also displace Figure 3: Projections for the number of households Figure 4: Sectoral Split of GDP Projections
  • 12. 11 motor fuels in the personal transportation with electric buses, cars and mass transit converting to electricity and battery powered systems. Electricity will also replace fossil fuels and traditional fuels in urban households. Electricity usage for space and water heating is expected to grow over time. Moreover, electricity is also expected to displace LP gas as the dominant energy source for cooking; electricity will 52% of total cooking energy for urban households in 2030 compared to a little over 3% at present. Similarly, electricity usage for rural households also increases, albeit at a slower rate. Electricity will account for 45% of total household cooking energy for rural households. Collectively, these changes in the energy consumption pattern will decrease the share of traditional sources of energy from 77% to 55%. The share of electricity consumption, meanwhile, will grow from 4% to 19%. Base Case Results Table 1 shows Nepal’s total energy demand. The share of electricity in total energy gradually increases from 6% at present to 23% of total energy demand in 2030. The share of electricity in the current energy mix is higher than statistics cited by WECS estimates because the base demand for electricity is assumed to constitute energy obtained from the use of diesel generators as well as demand that would otherwise exist in the event of reliable power supply. The demand projection shows that due to increasing urbanization and consumer preferences, the dominance of traditional sources of fuel will decline over time. Traditional sources of fuels will be displaced by electricity, and other sources (solar and modern biomass). The energy share of fossil Item Unit 2014 2020 2025 2030 Traditional fuels GWyr 7.636 7.271 5.635 5.648 Modern biomass GWyr 0.530 0.707 0.886 1.091 Electricity GWyr 0.707 1.493 2.462 3.817 Soft solar GWyr 0.281 0.339 0.397 0.464 Fossil fuels GWyr 1.654 1.884 2.082 2.257 Motor fuels GWyr 1.012 3.385 3.387 3.263 Total GWyr 11.821 15.079 15.849 16.540 Figure 5: Energy Sources for Household Sector Forecasts Table 1: Energy Demand Forecast - Base Case Scenario
  • 13. 12 fuels (primarily coal and LP gas) will remain constant. While demand for energy from fossil fuels will increase due to manufacturing and domestic demand, it will be also decrease as electricity will displace it as the default energy in manufacturing and cooking. The share of motor fuels will initially increase sharply because increased economic activity will increase the demand for transportation services. Over time, this share is reduced, because by 2030 one half of the total freight transport will be powered by electricity (through vehicles such as trains and cable cars).Electricity powered cars, buses and trains will also replace diesel and gasoline. However, share of motor fuels in the transportation sector will still be very high (90%) compared to electricity (10%) because of the efficiency of electricity powered transport. Put differently, although the same amount of freight and passengers is transported using motor fuels and electricity, a lot more motor fuel is required to do the same work because electricity is by far the more energy efficient source. Therefore the relative share of motor fuels does not decline precipitously from the initial increase. Figure 6 outlines the trend of the share of motor fuels in Nepal’s energy mix. The final electricity demand in 2030 is 3.817 gigawatt years, which is equivalent to 33,433 gigawatt hours (GWh). A final energy demand of 33,433 GWh equates to 6,358 MW at 60% system capacity factor Since the aforementioned installed capacity is for final usage, a reserve capacity is required for transmission losses (1,211 MW) and outages (2,523 MW). Assuming that daily demand load curve remains the same, the required installed capacity to service demand in 2030 is 10,092MW. Figure 7: Electricity Demand Forecast 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 MW GWh Electricity Demand Energy Demand (incl. Transmission Losses & Outage Reserve) Peak Demand (MW) Figure 6: Evolution of Energy Mix
  • 14. 13 The required installed capacity to service demand is sensitive to the system capacity factor. The base case analysis assumes a capacity factor of 60%; this means that a 1MW plant will operate at full capacity for 5,256 hours during any given year (60% of the time). Given the current imperative of building storage plants and anticipated capacity increases in other renewables such as wind and solar, the system capacity will likely be lower than 60%. At a system capacity factor of 50% and 47%, the required installed capacities to service demand in 2030 will be 12,000MW and 12,757MW respectively. Similarly, in the base case scenario, per capita energy demand for electricity is approximately 980 KWh. Energy Supply The supply of electricity to meet demand is primarily based on run of river hydro power generation with storage projects and renewables as supplementary sources. According to the current supply schedule, there will be sufficient generation capacity to meet the base case demand in 2030 but there will be persistent deficits in the intervening years. This points to the need for careful planning in sequencing of projects in the medium and long term to match supply with demand. Efficient planning is all the more important because hydro power projects have long development cycles and availability (reliable supply of power) is essential to sustained growth in electricity demand. Table 2 shows major projects (with installed capacities of over 100 MW) that are expected to come into operation within 2030. Timely commissioning of these projects will be critical because of their impact on the electricity supply. 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 Current 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Demand and Supply Scenario (MW) Total Peak Demand Total Installed Capacity Figure 8: Demand and Supply Forecasts
  • 15. 14 Major Projects Major Projects Installed Capacity CoD Upper Tamakosi 456 2018 Rasuwagadi 111 2018 Middle Bhotekosi 102 2018 Tamakosi V 227 2022 Upper Karnali/Arun III 305 2023 Upper Arun 335 2023 Dudhkosi 228 2025 Budigandaki 1,200 2025 Nalsing Gad 410 2025 West Seti 750 2025 Tamakosi III 650 2025 Upper Trisuli 216 2025 Pancheshwar 3,360 2030 Table 2: Major Projects in the Pipeline
  • 16. 15 Scenarios and Sensitivities: GDP Growth Rates Scenarios around the GDP As mentioned in the introductory section, this study includes certain scenarios and sensitivities around the base case. The GDP scenarios are based around the following average GDP growth rates: 7%, and 10%. Table 3 below highlights some of the significant factors that lead to higher demand for electricity when GDP growth rates are higher than the base case of 5%. Different economic sectors grow at dissimilar rates. For example, when the overall economy grows at 7% between 2020 and 2025, the mining sector grows at a rapid rate of 14% but the agriculture sector exhibits a more muted growth rate of 4%. Since the energy intensities of different sectors of the economy are also different from one another, the resulting change in demand is different from the change in overall economic output. Energy intensive activities such as mining, manufacturing and commerce (freight transport) grow at a more rapid rate than less energy intensive sectors such as agriculture, services and household consumption. The net result is that the demand for electricity grows at a faster pace than that of the overall economy. Base Case (5% GDP Growth) 7% GDP Growth Rate 10% GDP Growth Rate 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030 Population (Millions) 29.89 31.97 34.18 29.89 31.97 34.18 29.89 31.97 34.18 GDP (USB billions) 24.11 30.78 39.28 27.01 37.88 53.12 31.88 51.34 82.69 GDP per Capita (USD per person) 807 963 1,149 904 1,185 1,554 1,067 1,606 2,419 Sectoral GDP Growth Rates Agriculture 3% 2% 2% 5% 4% 4% 8% 7% 7% Construction 6% 6% 6% 8% 8% 8% 11% 11% 11% Mining 17% 12% 10% 19% 14% 12% 22% 18% 16% Manufacturing 8% 8% 8% 10% 10% 10% 14% 13% 13% Service 5% 5% 5% 7% 7% 7% 10% 10% 10% Energy 19% 13% 11% 21% 15% 13% 25% 18% 16% Total Electricity Demand (GWhr) 13,079 21,567 33,437 13,666 23,521 38,299 14,664 27,217 48,706 Electricity Usage by Sector Agriculture 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Construction, Mining and Manufacturing 30% 30% 32% 32% 34% 37% 35% 40% 46% Service Sector 6% 7% 9% 6% 7% 9% 6% 8% 8% Freight Transport 4% 6% 6% 4% 6% 7% 5% 7% 9% Passenger Transport 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Household 57% 54% 51% 55% 50% 44% 51% 43% 35% Table 3: Comparison of Electricity Demand Drivers Across GDP Growth Scenarios
  • 17. 16 Case 1: High GDP (10% GDP Growth) The GDP of Nepal at 10% average annual growth rate is estimated to reach USD 83 Billion, which is almost 5 times the GDP in 2014. A higher GDP rate increases energy/electricity requirements. A higher GDP growth rate also alters the target energy mix. As we can observe from the diagram on the right (energy mix), motor fuels will increase sharply because of increased economic activity, which in turn, will increase the demand for transportation services. Unlike the base case, the share of motor fuels will not decrease over time, and will, instead, plateau at 27%. Although there will be replacement of fuel in the transport sector, the demand for energy will be so high that the contribution of motor fuels to the energy mix will not decrease. It can also be observed that the share of the traditional fuels has gone down considerably (from 65% in 2014 to 25% in 2015). In terms of energy mix, the share of traditional fuels is lower in this case than in the base case. High economic growth mandates efficient Item Unit 2014 2020 2025 2030 Traditional fuels GWyr 7.636 7.272 6.641 5.666 Modern biomass GWyr 0.53 0.709 0.896 1.121 Electricity GWyr 0.707 1.674 3.107 5.56 Soft solar GWyr 0.281 0.34 0.401 0.475 Fossil fuels GWyr 1.654 2.13 2.709 3.497 Motor fuels GWyr 1.012 4.181 5.097 6.055 Total GWyr 11.820 16.306 18.851 22.374 Figure 9: GDP Projections at 10% Growth Rate Item Unit 2014 2020 2025 2030 Traditional fuels GWyr 7.636 7.272 6.641 5.666 Modern biomass GWyr 0.53 0.709 0.896 1.121 Electricity GWyr 0.707 1.674 3.107 5.56 Soft solar GWyr 0.281 0.34 0.401 0.475 Fossil fuels GWyr 1.654 2.13 2.709 3.497 Motor fuels GWyr 1.012 4.181 5.097 6.055 Total GWyr 11.820 16.306 18.851 22.374 18 32 51 83 5 25 45 65 85 105 2014 2020 2025 2030 USDBillions GDP at 10% Growth Rate 65% 45% 35% 25% 6% 10% 16% 25% 14% 13% 14% 16% 9% 26% 27% 27% 7% 6% 7% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2014 2020 2025 2030 Energy Mix Traditional fuels Electricity Fossil fuels Motor Fuels Others Figure 10: Evolution of Energy Mix: High Growth Scenario Table 4: Energy Demand Forecast High Growth Scenario
  • 18. 17 energy sources; hence the decrease in the traditional fuels’ contribution to the energy mix. The final energy demand for 2030, in this scenario is estimated to be 22.374 GWyr. The final electricity demand in 2030 is 5.56 gigawatt years, which is equivalent to 77,312 gigawatt hours (GWh). A final energy demand of 77,312 GWh equates to 14,702 MW. As discussed earlier, the aforementioned installed capacity and demand takes into account transmission losses and outages. Keeping the supply situation unchanged, the system will be in a state of excess demand in 2030. In this growth scenario, the peak demand is estimated to surpass the installed capacity by about 2000 MW. Under this scenario, it is estimated that the system will have severe power shortages until 2024, when the peak demand is estimated to be more than double the installed capacity. This gap will be reduced in 2025. Figure 11: Electricity Demand Forecast: High Growth Scenario 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 MW GWh Electricity Demand Energy Demand (incl. Transmission Losses & Outage…
  • 19. 18 The required installed capacity to service demand is sensitive to the system capacity factor. If the peak demand were to be addressed, the system would need an installed capacity of 15,000 MW. Case 2: Medium-High GDP (7% GDP Growth) The GDP of Nepal at 7% average annual growth rate is estimated to reach USD 53 Billion, which is almost 3 times the GDP in 2014. As the GDP growth rate is higher than that of the base case, energy/electricity requirements will also increase correspondingly. The expected energy mix in 2030 will also be altered. As we can observe from the diagram in the next page (energy mix), motor fuels will increase sharply because of increased economic activity, which in turn, will increase the demand for transportation services. Like the base case, the share of motor fuels will decrease over time, albeit by one percentage point. 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Current 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Demand and Supply Scenario (MW) Total Peak Demand Total Installed Capacity Figure 13: GDP Projections at 7% Growth Rate Item Unit 2014 2020 2025 2030 Traditional fuels GWyr 7.636 7.272 6.641 5.666 Modern biomass GWyr 0.53 0.709 0.896 1.121 Electricity GWyr 0.707 1.674 3.107 5.56 Soft solar GWyr 0.281 0.34 0.401 0.475 Fossil fuels GWyr 1.654 2.13 2.709 3.497 Motor fuels GWyr 1.012 4.181 5.097 6.055 Total GWyr 11.820 16.306 18.851 22.374 18 27 38 53 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 2014 2020 2025 2030 USDBillions GDP at 7% Growth Rate Figure 12: Demand and Supply Forecasts: High Growth Scenario
  • 20. 19 In addition, in this scenario as compared to the base case scenario, there will be a higher rate of traditional fuel substitution (from 65% of the total energy mix in 2014 to 31% of the total energy mix in 2030). From the graph, we can observe that the proportion of fossil fuels will remain unchanged and that there will be a certain rise in the contribution from alternative energy sources. The final energy demand for 2030, in this scenario is estimated to be 18.399 GWyr, which is about 2 GWyr higher than in the base case and about 3 GWyr less than the energy demand for the high-growth scenario. The final electricity demand in 2030 is 4.372 gigawatt years, which is equivalent to 60,793 gigawatt hours (GWh) after taking into account transmission losses and reserve outages. A final energy demand of 60,793 GWh equates to 11,560 MW. Keeping the supply situation unchanged from the base case, the system will be able to meet peak demand. Under this high growth scenario, the peak demand is estimated to be almost equal to the installed capacity. Under this scenario, it is estimated that the system will have severe power Item Unit 2014 2020 2025 2030 Traditional fuels GWyr 7.636 7.272 6.637 5.654 Modern biomass GWyr 0.53 0.708 0.889 1.1 Electricity GWyr 0.707 1.56 2.685 4.372 Soft solar GWyr 0.281 0.339 0.398 0.467 Fossil fuels GWyr 1.654 1.975 2.299 2.653 Motor fuels GWyr 1.012 3.682 3.978 4.153 Total GWyr 11.820 15.536 16.886 18.399 Figure 15: Electricity Demand Forecast: Medium-High Growth Scenario 65% 47% 39% 31% 6% 10% 16% 24% 14% 13% 14% 14% 9% 24% 24% 23% 7% 7% 8% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2014 2020 2025 2030 Energy Mix Traditional fuels Electricity Fossil fuels Motor Fuels Others 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 MW GWh Electricity Demand Energy Demand (incl. Transmission Losses… Table 5: Energy Demand Forecast Medium-High Growth Scenario Figure 14: Evolution of Energy Mix: Medium-High Growth Scenario
  • 21. 20 shortages until 2024, when the peak demand is estimated to be more than double the installed capacity. This gap will end in 2025; however, the system will run deficits after 2025 until 2030. The demand in 2030 will be met since Pancheswar Multipurpose project is expected to commission that year. 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 Current 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Demand and Supply Scenario (MW) Total Peak Demand Total Installed Capacity Figure 16: Demand and Supply Forecasts
  • 22. 21 1,211 MW 2,523 MW → 10,092 MW 1,892 MW → 9,461 MW 1,336 MW → 8,904 MW 1,634 MW 2,664 MW → 10,655 MW 1,998 MW → 9,989 MW 1,410 MW → 9,401 MW 2,119 MW 2,826 MW → 11,302 MW 2,119 MW → 10,596 MW 1,496 MW → 9,973 MW 1,387 MW 2,890 MW → 11,560 MW 2,186 MW → 10,838 MW 1,530 MW → 10,200 MW 1,871 MW 3,051 MW → 12,206 MW 2,289 MW → 11,443 MW 1,615 MW → 10,770 MW 2,428 MW 3,237 MW → 12,947 MW 2,428 MW → 12,138 MW 1,714 MW → 11,424 MW 16% SystemLosses 20% 25% Outages&Reserves 25% 15% 20% 25% 15% 20% 25% 15% 20% Figure 17: Sensitivity of Final Installed Capacity on GDP, Transmission Losses and Outages SystemLosses Outages&Reserves SystemLosses Outages&Reserves 16% 20% 25% 25% 15% 20% 25% 15% 20% 25% 15% 20% 16% 20% 25% 25% 15% 20% 25% 15% 20% 25% 15% 20%
  • 23. 22 1,764 MW 3,675 MW → 14,702 MW 2,757 MW → 13,783 MW 1,946 MW → 12,972 MW 2,380 MW 3,881 MW → 15,522 MW 2,910 MW → 14,552 MW 2,054 MW → 13,696 MW 3,087 MW 4,116 MW → 16,465 MW 3,087 MW → 15,436 MW 2,179 MW → 14,528 MW
  • 24. 23 Scenarios and Sensitivities: Sectoral Contribution to the GDP In the base case we have assumed that the agriculture sector’s contribution to the GDP will decrease from the existing 33% to 22%. However, there is a good chance that agriculture might still contribute to a third of the economy. In this case, keeping all other factors constant (as same as the base case), the total energy demanded in 2030 is expected to be 30,012 GWh, which is about 3,000 GWh lower than the energy demand in the base case. Similarly, the total required installed capacity, after taking reserves for transmission losses and outages, is 9,059 MW, which is 10% lower than the required installed capacity of the base case. The second scenario around sectoral contribution to the GDP is the shift in manufacturing sector’s contribution to the GDP. In this scenario, we have assumed that the manufacturing sector will account for a fourth of the economy in 2030, from its current state of a mere 2.4%. The contribution of certain other sectors, including agriculture, mining, and services have been reduced to accommodate for the growth in manufacturing’s contribution to the GDP. The final energy demanded in this scenario is 40,874 GWh and the installed capacity required to meet this demand, including reserve for transmission losses and outages, is 12,338 MW. The electricity demanded in this scenario is about 7,000 GWh greater than the energy demanded in the base case scenario. Similarly, the installed capacity required to meet the demand in this scenario is 22% greater than that of the base case scenario. Scenarios around Fuel Substitution In the base case scenario, in terms of fuel replacement at the household level, we have assumed the following: Agriculture Contribution to the GDP Percentage Unchanged Electricity Demand (GWh) 30,012 Required Installed Capacity (MW) 9,059 Manufacturing Contribution to the GDP Percentage Changed to 25% Electricity Demand (GWh) 40,874 Required Installed Capacity (MW) 12,338 Table 6: Electricity Demand and Required Installed Capacity (Agriculture Contribution to the GDP Percentage Unchanged) Table 7: Electricity Demand and Required Installed Capacity (Manufacturing Contribution to the GDP Percentage Changed to 25%)
  • 25. 24 In urban households, electricity will replace fossil fuels and traditional sources of fuels  Electricity will provide 63% of space heating requirements in 2030 compared to 20% in 2014  Electricity will provide 8% of water heating requirements in 2030 compared to 3% in 2014  Electricity will provide 52% of cooking requirements in 2030 compared to 3% in 2014 Similarly, electricity usage in rural households also increases over time, albeit at a slower intensity o Penetration of electricity for space heating, water heating, and cooking in 2030 is 25%, 4%, 45% respectively In this scenario, we will assume that there will be no fuel substitution at the household level. We will assume that electricity will provide only 20% of the space heating requirements, only 3% of the water heating requirements, and only 3% of cooking requirements at the urban household level. Similarly, it is assumed that penetration of electricity for space and water heating and cooking is zero. In this scenario, the final electricity demand is estimated to be 24,239 GWh and the total required installed capacity to meet this demand is 7,316 MW (28% less than the base case scenario). In the base case, certain assumptions on fuel replacement in the transport sector are made. The following assumptions were made:  Freight transport consumes the most amount of energy (70% in 2014) in the transportation sector and its share increases to 85% in 2030)  Electricity will displace some amount of motor fuel based transport (6.5% of total energy in required for freight)  Electricity will also be displace motor fuels in the personal transportation sector (with electric buses, cars and mass transit) No Fuel Replacement at the Household Level Electricity Demand (GWh) 24,239 Required Installed Capacity (MW) 7,316 Table 8: Electricity Demand and Required Installed Capacity (No Fuel Replacement at the Household Level)
  • 26. 25 In this scenario, it is assumed that there is no fuel substitution in the transport industry, combined with no fuel substitution at the household level (zero fuel substitution in aggregate). The final electricity demand in this scenario is 21,357 GWh, which is about 37% less than the base case. Similarly, the installed capacity required to meet this demand is 6,447 MW, which is about 4,000 MW less than the base case. Although the energy demand and required installed capacity are significantly low in this scenario, the country will be forced to import fossil fuels, and hence widen the trade deficit, in order to meet energy demand. Low Growth and No Fuel Substitution Under this scenario, we assume that there will be no fuel substitution (same as the case above) combined with a low economic growth. For the low economic growth part, an average growth rate of 4% is assumed. In this scenario, the final electricity demand is estimated to be 19,692 GWh. Similarly, the total required installed capacity to meet this demand, including reserve for transmission losses and outages, is 5,944 MW (41% less than the total required installed capacity from the base case). The total installed capacity, excluding reserve for transmission losses and outages, in this scenario is 3,745 MW. This figure is similar to the figure derived by Nepal Electricity Authority in their electricity demand forecast. No Fuel Replacement Electricity Demand (GWh) 21,357 Required Installed Capacity (MW) 6,447 Low Economic Growth and No Fuel Replacement Electricity Demand (GWh) 19,692 Required Installed Capacity (MW) 5,944 Table 9: Electricity Demand and Required Installed Capacity (No Fuel Replacement) Table 10: Electricity Demand and Required Installed Capacity (Low Economic Growth and No Fuel Replacement)
  • 27. 26 Conclusion Nepal’s energy problems are severe: there is an increasing gap between demand and supply of electricity and more than a third of the population does not have access to electricity. In the absence of a proper supply mechanism, many believe that the demand for electricity has been suppressed. Although many studies have been undertaken to come up with a realistic demand of energy/electricity, these studies have failed to consider latent demand. This energy demand forecast, jointly conducted by The National Planning Commission and the Office of the Investment Board, tackles the latent demand issue, and has come up with a more realistic demand for energy, including electricity. The study uses the MAED model, which is a scenario-based planning tool. The energy demand, according to MAED, is derived from different sectors of the economy, transport/freight preferences and household usages. In the base case scenario, the energy demand in the year 2030, based on certain assumptions related to socio-economy, technology, and demography is estimated to be 16.54 GWyr, out of which the demand for electricity is 3.817 GWyr. The required installed capacity to meet this demand, at 60% capacity factor, after considering reserve for transmission losses and outages, is 10,092 MW. There are certain scenarios based on variable GDP growth rates, fuel substitution, and composition of the GDP. The outputs from these scenarios hover around the base case results.