As part of its mandate to provide nonpartisan analyses to the Congress, CBO produces baseline projections for the economy and the federal budget. Those projections are used in CBO’s cost estimates for proposed federal legislation and in CBO’s analytical reports. This presentation describes how CBO produces its baseline projections.
Presentation by Theresa Gullo, CBO’s Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, and John McClelland, CBO’s Assistant Director for Tax Analysis, at a joint seminar with the Congressional Research Service.
A few times each year, CBO produces a baseline budget projection—a detailed projection of federal spending, revenues, and resulting deficits for the current year and the subsequent 10 years, reflecting an assumption that current laws generally remain unchanged. That baseline serves as a neutral benchmark for measuring the budgetary effects of proposed changes in federal revenues and mandatory spending. It is the basis for CBO’s cost estimates for proposed legislation, analyses of the President’s annual budget, volume of policy options that would reduce the deficit, and assessments of multiyear budget trends. It is often a starting point for development of Congressional budget resolutions.
This presentation describes those baseline projections and how they are formulated. It also summarizes CBO’s most recent projections.
Presentation by Theresa Gullo, Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, and John McClelland, Assistant Director for Tax Analysis, at a joint seminar by CBO and the Congressional Research Service for Congressional staff.
To support the Congressional budget process, CBO provides the Congress with objective, nonpartisan, and timely analyses of legislative proposals and of budgetary and economic issues. This presentation highlights CBO’s process for developing its economic forecast and baseline budget projections and provides an overview of the current forecast and projections.
Presentation by Robert Arnold, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, and Christina Hawley Anthony, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, at the NABE Foundation’s 15th Annual Economic Measurement Seminar.
The federal budget is a measure of the overall scope and magnitude of federal activities that involve the spending or collection of money. The net costs of those activities are shown in the budget mostly on a cash basis, but some transactions are recorded by means of accrual accounting. This presentation discusses the advantages and disadvantages of cash and accrual measures when accounting for various federal insurance programs and federal retirement programs.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, CBO’s Assistant Director for Macroeconomic Analysis, and Teri Gullo, CBO's Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 requires CBO to prepare cost estimates for legislation at certain points in the legislative process. CBO is also required to provide the Congress with annual reports on projected spending, revenues, and deficits under current law. This presentation highlights how CBO uses information from other agencies to prepare those cost estimates and baseline projections.
This presentation provides an overview of the Congressional Budget Office’s most recent budget and economic projections, which were published on January 28. In those projections, the federal budget deficit is about $900 billion in 2019 and exceeds $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022. Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 93 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2029.
Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019—down from 3.1 percent in 2018—as the effects of the 2017 tax act on the growth of business investment wane and federal purchases decline sharply in the fourth quarter of the year. Economic growth is projected to slow to an average of 1.7 percent through 2023 and to average 1.8 percent from 2024 to 2029.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, Robert Arnold, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, and Joshua Shakin, Chief of the Revenue Estimating Unit in CBO’s Tax Analysis Division, at a joint seminar with the Congressional Research Service.
Presentation by Peter Fontaine, CBO's Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, to a Global Network of Parliamentary Budget Offices Community Meeting Sponsored by the World Bank Institute
A few times each year, CBO produces a baseline budget projection—a detailed projection of federal spending, revenues, and resulting deficits for the current year and the subsequent 10 years, reflecting an assumption that current laws generally remain unchanged. That baseline serves as a neutral benchmark for measuring the budgetary effects of proposed changes in federal revenues and mandatory spending. It is the basis for CBO’s cost estimates for proposed legislation, analyses of the President’s annual budget, volume of policy options that would reduce the deficit, and assessments of multiyear budget trends. It is often a starting point for development of Congressional budget resolutions.
This presentation describes those baseline projections and how they are formulated. It also summarizes CBO’s most recent projections.
Presentation by Theresa Gullo, Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, and John McClelland, Assistant Director for Tax Analysis, at a joint seminar by CBO and the Congressional Research Service for Congressional staff.
To support the Congressional budget process, CBO provides the Congress with objective, nonpartisan, and timely analyses of legislative proposals and of budgetary and economic issues. This presentation highlights CBO’s process for developing its economic forecast and baseline budget projections and provides an overview of the current forecast and projections.
Presentation by Robert Arnold, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, and Christina Hawley Anthony, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, at the NABE Foundation’s 15th Annual Economic Measurement Seminar.
The federal budget is a measure of the overall scope and magnitude of federal activities that involve the spending or collection of money. The net costs of those activities are shown in the budget mostly on a cash basis, but some transactions are recorded by means of accrual accounting. This presentation discusses the advantages and disadvantages of cash and accrual measures when accounting for various federal insurance programs and federal retirement programs.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, CBO’s Assistant Director for Macroeconomic Analysis, and Teri Gullo, CBO's Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 requires CBO to prepare cost estimates for legislation at certain points in the legislative process. CBO is also required to provide the Congress with annual reports on projected spending, revenues, and deficits under current law. This presentation highlights how CBO uses information from other agencies to prepare those cost estimates and baseline projections.
This presentation provides an overview of the Congressional Budget Office’s most recent budget and economic projections, which were published on January 28. In those projections, the federal budget deficit is about $900 billion in 2019 and exceeds $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022. Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 93 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2029.
Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019—down from 3.1 percent in 2018—as the effects of the 2017 tax act on the growth of business investment wane and federal purchases decline sharply in the fourth quarter of the year. Economic growth is projected to slow to an average of 1.7 percent through 2023 and to average 1.8 percent from 2024 to 2029.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, Robert Arnold, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, and Joshua Shakin, Chief of the Revenue Estimating Unit in CBO’s Tax Analysis Division, at a joint seminar with the Congressional Research Service.
Presentation by Peter Fontaine, CBO's Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, to a Global Network of Parliamentary Budget Offices Community Meeting Sponsored by the World Bank Institute
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, CBO’s Assistant Director for Macroeconomic Analysis, and Teri Gullo, CBO's Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, to Congressional Staff.
CBO provides formal, written estimates of the cost of virtually every bill approved by Congressional committees to show how the bill would affect spending or revenues over the next 5 or 10 years, depending on the type of spending involved. In May, the Congress adopted a concurrent resolution on the budget for fiscal year 2016 that requires CBO, to the greatest extent practicable, to incorporate macroeconomic effects into its 10-year cost estimates for major legislation that Congressional committees approve. Such estimates must also include, when practicable, a qualitative assessment of the budgetary effects for the following 20 years. Incorporating such macroeconomic feedback into cost estimates is often called dynamic scoring. This presentation describes how CBO will prepare such estimates.
The Budget and Economic Outlook, a recurring publication of the Congressional Budget Office, provides budget and economic projections that incorporate the assumption that current laws governing federal spending and revenues generally remain in place. Those baseline projections cover the 10-year period used in the Congressional budget process. The report generally describes the differences between the current projections and previous ones; compares the economic forecast with those of other forecasters; and shows the budgetary impact of some alternative policy assumptions. This presentation describes the projections and provides some recent examples.
On March 7, 2016, Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, will present at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
CBO has devoted significant effort to developing analytical tools that enable it to assess the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policies and how such effects, or "macroeconomic feedback," would affect the federal budget. When CBO incorporates such effects in its cost estimates of major legislation, the approach is often called dynamic scoring. This presentation describes how CBO prepares estimates of macroeconomic feedback, and provides a case study on proposed legislation to repeal the Affordable Care Act.
To show how transportation funding is handled in CBO's cost estimates, this slide deck provides a guide to the agency's 2012 estimate of the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act.
Presentation by Megan Carroll, an analyst for CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, at the Department of Commerce Resource Management Conference.
Since 1975, CBO has produced nonpartisan analyses of budgetary and economic issues to support the Congressional budget process. Each year, the agency’s economists and budget analysts produce dozens of reports and hundreds of cost estimates for proposed legislation. This presentation makes key points related to CBO’s cost estimates for proposed legislation and how they relate to budget enforcement procedures.
The Budget and Economic Outlook is one of the flagship publications of the Congressional Budget Office. The report provides economic and federal budget projections that incorporate the assumption that current laws governing federal spending and revenues generally remain in place. Those baseline projections cover the 10-year period used in the Congressional budget process. The report generally describes the differences between the current projections and previous ones; compares the economic forecast with those of other forecasters; and shows the budgetary impact of some alternative policy assumptions. This presentation describes how the report is produced and how it can be used for economic analysis, providing examples from the April 2018 edition.
Presentation by Jeffrey F. Werling, Assistant Director of CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, to the National Association of Forensic Economics, at the Southern Economic Association Annual Meetings, November 18, 2018.
The Budget and Economic Outlook, a recurring publication of the Congressional Budget Office, provides economic and budget projections that incorporate the assumption that current laws governing federal spending and revenues generally remain in place. Those baseline projections cover the 10-year period used in the Congressional budget process. The report generally describes the differences between the current projections and previous ones; compares the economic forecast with those of other forecasters; and shows the budgetary impact of some alternative policy assumptions.
This presentation describes how the report is produced and how it can be used for budget and economic analyses, providing examples from CBO’s most recent projections.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, CBO’s Assistant Director for Macroeconomic Analysis, and Teri Gullo, CBO's Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, to Congressional Staff.
CBO provides formal, written estimates of the cost of virtually every bill approved by Congressional committees to show how the bill would affect spending or revenues over the next 5 or 10 years, depending on the type of spending involved. In May, the Congress adopted a concurrent resolution on the budget for fiscal year 2016 that requires CBO, to the greatest extent practicable, to incorporate macroeconomic effects into its 10-year cost estimates for major legislation that Congressional committees approve. Such estimates must also include, when practicable, a qualitative assessment of the budgetary effects for the following 20 years. Incorporating such macroeconomic feedback into cost estimates is often called dynamic scoring. This presentation describes how CBO will prepare such estimates.
The Budget and Economic Outlook, a recurring publication of the Congressional Budget Office, provides budget and economic projections that incorporate the assumption that current laws governing federal spending and revenues generally remain in place. Those baseline projections cover the 10-year period used in the Congressional budget process. The report generally describes the differences between the current projections and previous ones; compares the economic forecast with those of other forecasters; and shows the budgetary impact of some alternative policy assumptions. This presentation describes the projections and provides some recent examples.
On March 7, 2016, Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, will present at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
CBO has devoted significant effort to developing analytical tools that enable it to assess the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policies and how such effects, or "macroeconomic feedback," would affect the federal budget. When CBO incorporates such effects in its cost estimates of major legislation, the approach is often called dynamic scoring. This presentation describes how CBO prepares estimates of macroeconomic feedback, and provides a case study on proposed legislation to repeal the Affordable Care Act.
To show how transportation funding is handled in CBO's cost estimates, this slide deck provides a guide to the agency's 2012 estimate of the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act.
Presentation by Megan Carroll, an analyst for CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, at the Department of Commerce Resource Management Conference.
Since 1975, CBO has produced nonpartisan analyses of budgetary and economic issues to support the Congressional budget process. Each year, the agency’s economists and budget analysts produce dozens of reports and hundreds of cost estimates for proposed legislation. This presentation makes key points related to CBO’s cost estimates for proposed legislation and how they relate to budget enforcement procedures.
The Budget and Economic Outlook is one of the flagship publications of the Congressional Budget Office. The report provides economic and federal budget projections that incorporate the assumption that current laws governing federal spending and revenues generally remain in place. Those baseline projections cover the 10-year period used in the Congressional budget process. The report generally describes the differences between the current projections and previous ones; compares the economic forecast with those of other forecasters; and shows the budgetary impact of some alternative policy assumptions. This presentation describes how the report is produced and how it can be used for economic analysis, providing examples from the April 2018 edition.
Presentation by Jeffrey F. Werling, Assistant Director of CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, to the National Association of Forensic Economics, at the Southern Economic Association Annual Meetings, November 18, 2018.
The Budget and Economic Outlook, a recurring publication of the Congressional Budget Office, provides economic and budget projections that incorporate the assumption that current laws governing federal spending and revenues generally remain in place. Those baseline projections cover the 10-year period used in the Congressional budget process. The report generally describes the differences between the current projections and previous ones; compares the economic forecast with those of other forecasters; and shows the budgetary impact of some alternative policy assumptions.
This presentation describes how the report is produced and how it can be used for budget and economic analyses, providing examples from CBO’s most recent projections.
Presentation by Theresa Gullo, CBO's Director of Budget Analysis, to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's Committee of Senior Budget Officials.
Presentation by Jeffrey Kling, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania’s Independent Fiscal Office. (Canceled due to inclement weather.)
The transparency of CBO’s work has always been a priority, and this year the agency has added and shifted resources to redouble its efforts in that area. CBO has three goals in being transparent:
1. CBO aims to enhance the credibility of its work by showing how it relies on data, professional research, and expert feedback.
2. CBO seeks to promote a thorough understanding of its analyses by sharing information in an accessible, clear, and detailed manner.
3. CBO wants to help people gauge how its estimates might change if policies or circumstances were different.
Presentation by Kathleen Burke, John McClelland, and Jennifer Shand, analysts in CBO’s Tax Analysis Division, to the National Association of Legislative Fiscal Offices.
Since 1975, CBO has produced nonpartisan analyses of budgetary and economic issues to support the Congressional budget process. Each year, the agency’s economists and budget analysts produce dozens of reports and hundreds of cost estimates for proposed legislation. This presentation makes key points about CBO’s role and how its analyses—including the Budget and Economic Outlook and cost estimates for proposed legislation—relate to budget enforcement procedures.
Presentation by Megan Carroll, an analyst in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, at the Budget Line of Business 2018 Spring Forum.
CBO supports the Congressional budget process by providing the Congress with objective, nonpartisan, and timely analyses of legislative proposals and of budgetary and economic issues. From a macroeconomic perspective, CBO produces work in two areas. First, it provides baseline economic forecasts over 10- and 30-year projection windows. Second, it analyzes the short-term and longer-term effects on the overall economy of some proposed changes in federal tax and spending policies. This presentation describes that work and provides recent examples of forecasts and analysis.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Robert Arnold, and Joshua Shakin, CBO Unit Chiefs, at a joint seminar by CBO and the Congressional Research Service.
The transparency of CBO’s work has always been a priority, and this year the agency has added and shifted resources to redouble its efforts in that area. CBO has three goals in being transparent:
1. CBO seeks to promote a thorough understanding of its analyses by sharing information in an accessible, clear, and detailed manner.
2. CBO wants to help people gauge how its estimates might change if policies or circumstances were different.
3. CBO aims to enhance the credibility of its work by showing how it relies on data, professional research, and expert feedback.
Presentation by Mark Hadley, CBO’s Deputy Director, at the 11th Annual Meeting of the OECD Network of Parliamentary Budget Officials and Independent Financial Institutions.
CBO makes baseline economic and budget projections covering the next 10 years and also the next 30 years. The projections incorporate the assumption that current laws generally do not change. To produce the 30-year economic projections, CBO uses its policy growth model, which relies on a standard economic framework that focuses on the inputs that drive growth in the supply side of the economy: the amount of labor, the productive services provided by capital, and total factor productivity.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, and Jeffrey Werling, Assistant Director of CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the 2019 Social Security Technical Panel.
This presentation provides an overview of the Congressional Budget Office’s most recent budget and economic projections, which were published on August 21. In those projections, the federal budget deficit is nearly $1 trillion in 2019 and averages $1.2 trillion each year between 2020 and 2029. Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 95 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2029.
Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019, supporting strong labor market conditions that feature low unemployment and rising wages. Economic growth is projected to slow to an average of 1.8 percent through 2029, which is less than the long-term historical average. That slowdown occurs primarily because the labor force is expected to grow more slowly than it has in the past.
Presentation by Lara Robillard, Principal Analyst, CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, to the Leadership Fellowship Program at the National Hispanic Medical Association.
Since 1975, CBO has produced nonpartisan budgetary and economic analyses that support the Congressional budget process. Taking a number of steps to ensure that all of its work is objective, impartial, and nonpartisan, CBO works hard to make its analysis transparent.
Publications go well beyond simply presenting results; instead, the agency explains the basis of its findings so that Members of Congress, their staff, and outside analysts can understand the results and question the methodologies used.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the University of Virginia’s Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy.
Presentation by Ben Page, CBO's Fiscal Policy Studies Unit Chief, at the National Tax Association 108th Annual Conference on Taxation.
In May, the Congress adopted a concurrent resolution on the budget for fiscal year 2016. That resolution requires CBO, to the greatest extent practicable, to incorporate macroeconomic effects into its 10-year cost estimates for major legislation that Congressional committees approve. Such estimates must also include, when practicable, a qualitative assessment of the budgetary effects for the following 20 years. Incorporating such macroeconomic feedback into cost estimates is often called dynamic scoring. This presentation describes how CBO will prepare such estimates.
Presentation by Lara Robillard, an analyst in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, to the Leadership Fellowship Program at the National Hispanic Medical Association.
CBO makes baseline economic and budget projections covering the next 10 years and also the next 30 years. The projections incorporate the assumption that current laws generally do not change. To produce the 30-year economic projections, CBO uses its policy growth model, which relies on a standard economic framework that focuses on the inputs that drive growth in the supply side of the economy: the amount of labor, the productive services provided by capital, and total factor productivity.
Presentation by Mark Hadley, CBO's Chief Operating Officer and General Counsel, at the 2nd NABO-OECD Annual Conference of Asian Parliamentary Budget Officials.
In CBO’s projections, economic output is expected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019, supporting strong labor market conditions that feature low unemployment and rising wages. After 2019, economic growth averages 1.8 percent per year, which is less than the historical average.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit for 2019 will be $960 billion. Under current law, budget deficits are projected to average $1.2 trillion a year between 2020 and 2029, boosting debt held by the public to 95 percent of GDP in that year—its highest level since just after World War II.
Presentation by Jared Jageler, David Adler, Noelia Duchovny, and Evan Herrnstadt, analysts in CBO’s Microeconomic Studies and Health Analysis Divisions, at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Summer Conference.
Presentation by Daria Pelech, an analyst in CBO’s Health Analysis Division, at the Center for Health Insurance Reform McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University.
This slide deck highlights CBO’s key findings about the outlook for the economy as described in its new report, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034.
Presentation by CBO analysts Rebecca Heller, Shannon Mok, and James Pearce, and Census Bureau research economist Jonathan Rothbaum at the American Economic Association Annual Meeting, Committee on Economic Statistics.
Presentation by Eric J. Labs, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Bank of America 2024 Defense Outlook and Commercial Aerospace Forum.
Presentation by Elizabeth Ash, William Carrington, Rebecca Heller, and Grace Hwang of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis and Health Analysis divisions to the Children’s Health Group, American Academy of Pediatrics.
Presentation by Molly Dahl, Chief of CBO’s Long-Term Analysis Unit, at a meeting of the National Conference of State Legislatures’ Budget Working Group.
In the President’s 2024 budget request, total military compensation is $551 billion, including veterans' benefits. That amount represents an increase of 134 percent since 1999 after removing the effects of inflation.
A process server is a authorized person for delivering legal documents, such as summons, complaints, subpoenas, and other court papers, to peoples involved in legal proceedings.
Understanding the Challenges of Street ChildrenSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
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Russian anarchist and anti-war movement in the third year of full-scale warAntti Rautiainen
Anarchist group ANA Regensburg hosted my online-presentation on 16th of May 2024, in which I discussed tactics of anti-war activism in Russia, and reasons why the anti-war movement has not been able to make an impact to change the course of events yet. Cases of anarchists repressed for anti-war activities are presented, as well as strategies of support for political prisoners, and modest successes in supporting their struggles.
Thumbnail picture is by MediaZona, you may read their report on anti-war arson attacks in Russia here: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/10/13/burn-map
Links:
Autonomous Action
http://Avtonom.org
Anarchist Black Cross Moscow
http://Avtonom.org/abc
Solidarity Zone
https://t.me/solidarity_zone
Memorial
https://memopzk.org/, https://t.me/pzk_memorial
OVD-Info
https://en.ovdinfo.org/antiwar-ovd-info-guide
RosUznik
https://rosuznik.org/
Uznik Online
http://uznikonline.tilda.ws/
Russian Reader
https://therussianreader.com/
ABC Irkutsk
https://abc38.noblogs.org/
Send mail to prisoners from abroad:
http://Prisonmail.online
YouTube: https://youtu.be/c5nSOdU48O8
Spotify: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/libertarianlifecoach/episodes/Russian-anarchist-and-anti-war-movement-in-the-third-year-of-full-scale-war-e2k8ai4
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
What is the point of small housing associations.pptxPaul Smith
Given the small scale of housing associations and their relative high cost per home what is the point of them and how do we justify their continued existance
ZGB - The Role of Generative AI in Government transformation.pdfSaeed Al Dhaheri
This keynote was presented during the the 7th edition of the UAE Hackathon 2024. It highlights the role of AI and Generative AI in addressing government transformation to achieve zero government bureaucracy
PNRR MADRID GREENTECH FOR BROWN NETWORKS NETWORKS MUR_MUSA_TEBALDI.pdf
Baseline Budget Projections
1. Congressional Budget Office
A Joint Seminar by the Congressional Budget Office
and the Congressional Research Service
January 23, 2019
Theresa Gullo, Assistant Director for Budget Analysis
John McClelland, Assistant Director for Tax Analysis
Baseline Budget Projections
3. 2
To provide the Congress with objective, nonpartisan, and timely analyses of legislative
proposals and of budgetary and economic issues to support the Congressional budget
process
CBO’s Role
CBO
4. 3
Developing a budget plan
Implementing that budget plan
Assessing the impact of proposed federal mandates
Considering issues related to the budget and to economic policy
What CBO Helps the Congress With
CBO
7. 6
A detailed projection for the current year and the ensuing 10 years of federal spending,
revenues, net spending for interest, and resulting deficits or surpluses
Based on CBO’s economic forecast
Incorporates the assumption that current laws governing taxes and spending generally
remain in place
Not a forecast of future budgetary outcomes; those depend on future Congressional
action and other factors
Generally provided two or three times a year
Reported in the annual Budget and Economic Outlook and subsequent reports
What Is CBO’s Baseline?
CBO
10. 9
Principles and rules mainly come from law, budget resolutions, House and Senate rules,
and the 1967 Report of the President’s Commission on Budget Concepts
A key law is the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act, section 257
–Defines the baseline
–Sets out rules for projecting spending and receipts
–Requires an assumption of full funding for entitlements
–Directs the treatment of expiring programs and certain excise taxes
How Is the Baseline Constructed?
CBO
11. 10
A neutral benchmark for measuring budgetary effects of proposed changes in federal
revenues and mandatory spending
Basis for:
–Cost estimates for proposed legislation
–CBO’s analyses of the President’s annual budget
–CBO’s budget options volume
–Other reports (including those describing CBO’s long-term budget projections)
–Assessments of multiyear budget trends
Often a starting point for budget resolutions
How Do CBO and the Congress Use the Baseline?
CBO
15. 14
How Is CBO’s Economic Forecast Developed and Reviewed?
Step 1: Background Analysis
Develop preliminary forecast for exogenous variables (e.g., oil prices)
Review recent data
Step 2: Preliminary Forecast
Use macroeconometric model to develop preliminary forecast
Incorporate preliminary federal tax and spending projections
Step 3: Internal and External Review
Obtain input from CBO’s senior staff and other divisions within the agency
Obtain feedback from CBO’s Panel of Economic Advisers and staff of
Congressional budget committees
Step 4: Final Forecast
Incorporate feedback and latest data to produce final forecast
Transmit to CBO’s budget and tax divisions to develop budget projections
CBO
16. 15
Baseline updates begin with a thorough analysis of prior-year spending and revenue
collections for each account and revenue source.
When it is appropriate, CBO uses historical patterns and experience to develop
projections.
The internal review process includes an assessment of the quality of past projections to
identify opportunities to refine methods and improve the accuracy of projections.
CBO solicits input from program experts at federal agencies and compares its
projections with those prepared by others.
How Does CBO Foster Accuracy in Its Projections?
CBO
17. 16
All projections are subject to some degree of uncertainty about how closely they will
correspond to actual outcomes.
Projections for years farther in the future are more uncertain.
The amount of uncertainty can vary depending on many factors, including data quality,
possible administrative actions, behavioral responses to changes in policies, and the
variability of underlying factors.
Analysts often test the sensitivity of their projections to identify the range of possible
outcomes for those projections.
CBO’s goal is to develop estimates that are near the middle of the range of possible
outcomes.
How Does CBO Address Uncertainty?
CBO
20. 19
Includes spending for programs governed by permanent law, including payments to
people, businesses, and state and local governments
The largest mandatory programs are Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and the
retirement program for civilians working for the federal government.
Generally reflects current law (statutory language and administrative policy)
Is driven by projections of key variables that affect cash flows:
–Enrollment by beneficiaries and their average costs
–Factors underlying CBO’s macroeconomic forecast
By law, the baseline reflects an assumption that certain large entitlement programs
(such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) continue after their expiration
date.
The Baseline for Mandatory Spending
CBO
22. 21
Spending stemming from annual appropriation acts
Funding
–Starts with the enacted amount for the current year
–For individual accounts, incorporates adjustments for inflation for future years
–Totals constrained by caps through 2021
Outlays
–Depends on how quickly funding is spent, with that rate differing widely among
programs and accounts
–For a given year, depends on funding in that year and prior years because funding is
usually spent gradually over several years
The Baseline for Discretionary Spending
CBO
24. 23
Is projected for each source
–More than 50 sources
–Largest share of total (49 percent) is from individual income taxes: $1.6 trillion in
2018
Usually reflects current law
–Reductions in the individual income tax are assumed to expire as scheduled at the
end of 2025
–Exception: Excise taxes dedicated to trust funds are extended at current rates
Is sensitive to economic projections
Tends to increase as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) over time
The Baseline for Revenues
CBO
26. 25
CBO’s model:
–Incorporates existing stock of outstanding debt and associated interest rates
–Integrates projections of future deficits and other financing obligations
–Uses CBO’s forecast for interest rates
–Relies on a projection of the mix of securities that the Treasury could issue
CBO’s projections also include offsets from interest income received on loans and cash
balances.
The Baseline for Net Spending for Interest
CBO
28. 27
Both CBO and OMB develop baselines that reflect the budgetary effects of current law.
OMB also coordinates the President’s budget proposals as part of the annual budget
submission. Those proposals:
–Reflect the effects of the President’s legislative, regulatory, and administrative
changes
–Usually have significantly different spending and revenue projections from those in
CBO’s baseline because they incorporate proposed policy changes
In CBO’s Analysis of the President’s Budget, the Administration’s proposals are
estimated in relation to CBO’s baseline
Projections by CBO and OMB
CBO
29. 28
An Example of CBO’s Account-by-Account Projections of Spending