Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Robert Arnold, and Joshua Shakin, CBO Unit Chiefs, at a joint seminar by CBO and the Congressional Research Service.
A.T. Kearney Consolidation of the US Banking IndustryKearney
More and more banked consumers are migrating from small to large banks, flagging the accelerated consolidation of the retail banking industry in the years to come.
Infrastructure Victoria - AZ/ZEV International ScanL.E.K. Consulting
InfrastructureVictoria for released the Evidence Base that will inform its advice to the Victorian Government on the infrastructure required to support automated and zero emissions vehicles. The Evidence Base includes the findings of ten projects to address key areas, including transport, energy, ICT and urban design. L.E.K. Consulting contributed to this work program, undertaking an international scan of the regulation and technical standards relating to automated and zero emission vehicle technologies.
You can receive our Powerpoint slides by sharing this presentation and submitting your email at www.slidebooks.com | Digital Transformation Strategy Template and Training | By ex-Deloitte and McKinsey Consultants
A.T. Kearney Consolidation of the US Banking IndustryKearney
More and more banked consumers are migrating from small to large banks, flagging the accelerated consolidation of the retail banking industry in the years to come.
Infrastructure Victoria - AZ/ZEV International ScanL.E.K. Consulting
InfrastructureVictoria for released the Evidence Base that will inform its advice to the Victorian Government on the infrastructure required to support automated and zero emissions vehicles. The Evidence Base includes the findings of ten projects to address key areas, including transport, energy, ICT and urban design. L.E.K. Consulting contributed to this work program, undertaking an international scan of the regulation and technical standards relating to automated and zero emission vehicle technologies.
You can receive our Powerpoint slides by sharing this presentation and submitting your email at www.slidebooks.com | Digital Transformation Strategy Template and Training | By ex-Deloitte and McKinsey Consultants
The enterprise software industry is being transformed by substantial investor capital, Cloud 2.0, artificial intelligence, data protection, preferred platforms, and a talent shortage, leading stakeholders of all kinds to make big changes, and big choices.
Future of asthma care a global expert view - summary - august 2021Future Agenda
Future of Asthma Care in 2030
Often hidden by many, asthma is a set of chronic conditions that will, some believe, impact around 1bn of us by the end of the decade. It will see new diagnostics, new treatments as well as gain new social and economic perspectives in many nations. As part of a global Open Foresight programme to bring together an informed outlook for all to use, this is a draft synthesis based on dialogue with 100 experts worldwide. At a time when lung health is front of mind for many, this is an important topic for our future health.
We are keen to understand your view on this. What do you agree with, what is missing and what may need an alternative perspective? Please do share any comments and feedback to douglas.jones@futureagenda.org and we will include everything in the final report that will made available later this year.
Our most recent US edition of the Global Mobile Consumer Survey showed that with the technological know-how and the increased cash flow, 25 to 34-year-olds are demonstrating higher levels of mobile device interest and use. Learn more at www.deloitte.com/us/mobileconsumer
This publication serves as the first in-depth DMCC (Dubai Multi Commodities Centre) thought leadership report on the global and local gaming and esports ecosystem. It gathers contributions from key opinion leaders to share their views on where the gaming and esports industry is heading and places emphasis on the drivers of gaming and esports from a technology, culture and business perspective.
Going Digital: The Banking Transformation Road MapSemalytix
The leaders in digital banking are more client-centric, tech-savvy, and inclusive—and are fundamentally changing to deliver the best results.
Most banks today want to become digital banking leaders—after all, that's where the customers are. And for much of the past decade as digital banking has taken hold, most leading traditional banks have incorporated strong digital strategies.
So what separates the digital banking leaders from the laggards? A new A.T. Kearney study on digitization, in conjunction with Efma, seeks the answer and finds three main findings: the leaders understand the importance of mobile in a digital strategy, they are developing more agile operating models, and, most notably, they have tackled the need for internal culture shifts (see sidebar: About the Study).
With top-down implementation, these leaders have set their paths toward becoming more client-centric, more tech-savvy, and more inclusive. As the market evolves even more rapidly through the end of the decade, all banks will have to adapt to a disruptive model in people and IT—the two engines of retail banking—and must fundamentally adapt to deliver the best results.
This paper looks at the trends and the path forward.
The Evolving Digital Journey
Most banks began their digital journey years ago and have clear digital strategies, yet even those are facing major changes. In particular, as more customers use their mobile phones and tablets to do their banking, and omnichannel takes hold in financial services, the mobile experience is becoming a crucial aspect of digital strategy that banks must address.
Secondly, to keep up in this fast-changing market, traditional banks will have to adapt their operating models. In particular, changes in IT, new products and services development, and changing expectations for time-to-market will be key factors going forward.
Perhaps the most important step, however, is that banking in the digital age requires a drastic, profound reset of how banking staff reacts to customer needs. This means thinking customer first, rather than by channel; as one panelist puts it, "Banks think in channels, but customers don't." It means being conscious that small digital players can gain market share faster and in a manner that is more disruptive to traditional banks' models. It means understanding that organizational silos pose significant obstacles to creating new solutions for customers. Most importantly, it means looking inward, changing organizational beliefs and habits to facilitate clients and drive digital innovation.
A new spirit of banking—led by top executives—will lead the way to addressing market changes, becoming more agile, and improving openness in day-to-day business.
- See more at: http://www.atkearney.com/latest-article/-/asset_publisher/lON5IOfbQl6C/content/going-digital-the-banking-transformation-road-map/10192?_101_INSTANCE_lON5IOfbQl6C_redirect=#sthash.oKsJGij3.dpuf
IBOR transition: Opportunities and challenges for the asset management industryEY
EY Wealth & Asset Management explores the practical implications and the way forward for the transition to the new risk-free rates. This presentation aims to help asset managers and asset owners explore IBOR transition strategies that are compliant and future-focused.
TMT Outlook 2017: A new wave of advances offer opportunities and challengesDeloitte United States
Important trends continue to shape the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) industry. What developments should you anticipate in 2017? https://subscriptions.deloitte.com/default.aspx?eventid=1323075
Global survey by BCG GAMMA and Ipsos finds overall optimism toward Artificial Intelligence in the workplace but large national differences and significant worries about privacy, job security, and economic equality.
Apache Hadoop Summit 2016: The Future of Apache Hadoop an Enterprise Architec...PwC
Hadoop Summit is an industry-leading Hadoop community event for business leaders and technology experts (such as architects, data scientists and Hadoop developers) to learn about the technologies and business drivers transforming data. PwC is helping organizations unlock their data possibilities to make data-driven decisions.
Tech Adoption and Strategy for Innovation & Growthaccenture
Accenture presents the benefits of investing in technology at scale by discussing the importance of tech adoption and strategy through case studies. View more.
The enterprise software industry is being transformed by substantial investor capital, Cloud 2.0, artificial intelligence, data protection, preferred platforms, and a talent shortage, leading stakeholders of all kinds to make big changes, and big choices.
Future of asthma care a global expert view - summary - august 2021Future Agenda
Future of Asthma Care in 2030
Often hidden by many, asthma is a set of chronic conditions that will, some believe, impact around 1bn of us by the end of the decade. It will see new diagnostics, new treatments as well as gain new social and economic perspectives in many nations. As part of a global Open Foresight programme to bring together an informed outlook for all to use, this is a draft synthesis based on dialogue with 100 experts worldwide. At a time when lung health is front of mind for many, this is an important topic for our future health.
We are keen to understand your view on this. What do you agree with, what is missing and what may need an alternative perspective? Please do share any comments and feedback to douglas.jones@futureagenda.org and we will include everything in the final report that will made available later this year.
Our most recent US edition of the Global Mobile Consumer Survey showed that with the technological know-how and the increased cash flow, 25 to 34-year-olds are demonstrating higher levels of mobile device interest and use. Learn more at www.deloitte.com/us/mobileconsumer
This publication serves as the first in-depth DMCC (Dubai Multi Commodities Centre) thought leadership report on the global and local gaming and esports ecosystem. It gathers contributions from key opinion leaders to share their views on where the gaming and esports industry is heading and places emphasis on the drivers of gaming and esports from a technology, culture and business perspective.
Going Digital: The Banking Transformation Road MapSemalytix
The leaders in digital banking are more client-centric, tech-savvy, and inclusive—and are fundamentally changing to deliver the best results.
Most banks today want to become digital banking leaders—after all, that's where the customers are. And for much of the past decade as digital banking has taken hold, most leading traditional banks have incorporated strong digital strategies.
So what separates the digital banking leaders from the laggards? A new A.T. Kearney study on digitization, in conjunction with Efma, seeks the answer and finds three main findings: the leaders understand the importance of mobile in a digital strategy, they are developing more agile operating models, and, most notably, they have tackled the need for internal culture shifts (see sidebar: About the Study).
With top-down implementation, these leaders have set their paths toward becoming more client-centric, more tech-savvy, and more inclusive. As the market evolves even more rapidly through the end of the decade, all banks will have to adapt to a disruptive model in people and IT—the two engines of retail banking—and must fundamentally adapt to deliver the best results.
This paper looks at the trends and the path forward.
The Evolving Digital Journey
Most banks began their digital journey years ago and have clear digital strategies, yet even those are facing major changes. In particular, as more customers use their mobile phones and tablets to do their banking, and omnichannel takes hold in financial services, the mobile experience is becoming a crucial aspect of digital strategy that banks must address.
Secondly, to keep up in this fast-changing market, traditional banks will have to adapt their operating models. In particular, changes in IT, new products and services development, and changing expectations for time-to-market will be key factors going forward.
Perhaps the most important step, however, is that banking in the digital age requires a drastic, profound reset of how banking staff reacts to customer needs. This means thinking customer first, rather than by channel; as one panelist puts it, "Banks think in channels, but customers don't." It means being conscious that small digital players can gain market share faster and in a manner that is more disruptive to traditional banks' models. It means understanding that organizational silos pose significant obstacles to creating new solutions for customers. Most importantly, it means looking inward, changing organizational beliefs and habits to facilitate clients and drive digital innovation.
A new spirit of banking—led by top executives—will lead the way to addressing market changes, becoming more agile, and improving openness in day-to-day business.
- See more at: http://www.atkearney.com/latest-article/-/asset_publisher/lON5IOfbQl6C/content/going-digital-the-banking-transformation-road-map/10192?_101_INSTANCE_lON5IOfbQl6C_redirect=#sthash.oKsJGij3.dpuf
IBOR transition: Opportunities and challenges for the asset management industryEY
EY Wealth & Asset Management explores the practical implications and the way forward for the transition to the new risk-free rates. This presentation aims to help asset managers and asset owners explore IBOR transition strategies that are compliant and future-focused.
TMT Outlook 2017: A new wave of advances offer opportunities and challengesDeloitte United States
Important trends continue to shape the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) industry. What developments should you anticipate in 2017? https://subscriptions.deloitte.com/default.aspx?eventid=1323075
Global survey by BCG GAMMA and Ipsos finds overall optimism toward Artificial Intelligence in the workplace but large national differences and significant worries about privacy, job security, and economic equality.
Apache Hadoop Summit 2016: The Future of Apache Hadoop an Enterprise Architec...PwC
Hadoop Summit is an industry-leading Hadoop community event for business leaders and technology experts (such as architects, data scientists and Hadoop developers) to learn about the technologies and business drivers transforming data. PwC is helping organizations unlock their data possibilities to make data-driven decisions.
Tech Adoption and Strategy for Innovation & Growthaccenture
Accenture presents the benefits of investing in technology at scale by discussing the importance of tech adoption and strategy through case studies. View more.
A few times each year, CBO produces a baseline budget projection—a detailed projection of federal spending, revenues, and resulting deficits for the current year and the subsequent 10 years, reflecting an assumption that current laws generally remain unchanged. That baseline serves as a neutral benchmark for measuring the budgetary effects of proposed changes in federal revenues and mandatory spending. It is the basis for CBO’s cost estimates for proposed legislation, analyses of the President’s annual budget, volume of policy options that would reduce the deficit, and assessments of multiyear budget trends. It is often a starting point for development of Congressional budget resolutions.
This presentation describes those baseline projections and how they are formulated. It also summarizes CBO’s most recent projections.
Presentation by Theresa Gullo, Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, and John McClelland, Assistant Director for Tax Analysis, at a joint seminar by CBO and the Congressional Research Service for Congressional staff.
In CBO’s projections, economic output is expected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019, supporting strong labor market conditions that feature low unemployment and rising wages. After 2019, economic growth averages 1.8 percent per year, which is less than the historical average.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit for 2019 will be $960 billion. Under current law, budget deficits are projected to average $1.2 trillion a year between 2020 and 2029, boosting debt held by the public to 95 percent of GDP in that year—its highest level since just after World War II.
The Budget and Economic Outlook, a recurring publication of the Congressional Budget Office, provides budget and economic projections that incorporate the assumption that current laws governing federal spending and revenues generally remain in place. Those baseline projections cover the 10-year period used in the Congressional budget process. The report generally describes the differences between the current projections and previous ones; compares the economic forecast with those of other forecasters; and shows the budgetary impact of some alternative policy assumptions. This presentation describes the projections and provides some recent examples.
Presentation by Kathleen Burke, John McClelland, and Jennifer Shand, analysts in CBO’s Tax Analysis Division, to the National Association of Legislative Fiscal Offices.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
This presentation provides an overview of the agency’s most recent budget and economic projections, which incorporate the assumption that current laws governing taxes and spending generally remain unchanged. In those projections, federal debt held by the public grows sharply over the next 30 years, reaching unprecedented levels. The presentation also includes a discussion of the effects of the 2017 tax act and recent changes to federal spending policy on the projections. In addition, the presentation touches on budgetary outcomes under scenarios that include future changes to current law.
Presentation by John McClelland, CBO’s Assistant Director for Tax Analysis, at the International Tax Policy Forum.
CBO supports the Congressional budget process by providing the Congress with objective, nonpartisan, and timely analyses of legislative proposals and of budgetary and economic issues. From a macroeconomic perspective, CBO produces work in two areas. First, it provides baseline economic forecasts over 10- and 30-year projection windows. Second, it analyzes the short-term and longer-term effects on the overall economy of some proposed changes in federal tax and spending policies. This presentation describes that work and provides recent examples of forecasts and analysis.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
CBO makes baseline economic and budget projections covering the next 10 years and also the next 30 years. The projections incorporate the assumption that current laws generally do not change. To produce the 30-year economic projections, CBO uses its policy growth model, which relies on a standard economic framework that focuses on the inputs that drive growth in the supply side of the economy: the amount of labor, the productive services provided by capital, and total factor productivity.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, and Jeffrey Werling, Assistant Director of CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the 2019 Social Security Technical Panel.
If current laws governing taxes and spending did not change, the condition of the federal budget would worsen considerably over the next three decades. Growth in federal spending would continue to outpace growth in federal revenues, leading to ever larger budget deficits.
Federal spending is projected to rise noticeably in relation to the economy because of growth in spending in Social Security, the major health programs, and interest on the government’s debt. Federal revenues would also increase if current laws remained generally unchanged, but they would increase much more slowly than federal spending.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the 19th annual meeting of the Retirement Research Consortium.
This presentation provides an overview of the Congressional Budget Office’s most recent budget and economic projections, which were published on January 28. In those projections, the federal budget deficit is about $900 billion in 2019 and exceeds $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022. Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 93 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2029.
Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019—down from 3.1 percent in 2018—as the effects of the 2017 tax act on the growth of business investment wane and federal purchases decline sharply in the fourth quarter of the year. Economic growth is projected to slow to an average of 1.7 percent through 2023 and to average 1.8 percent from 2024 to 2029.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, Robert Arnold, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, and Joshua Shakin, Chief of the Revenue Estimating Unit in CBO’s Tax Analysis Division, at a joint seminar with the Congressional Research Service.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
Similar to The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2022 to 2032 (20)
Presentation by Jared Jageler, David Adler, Noelia Duchovny, and Evan Herrnstadt, analysts in CBO’s Microeconomic Studies and Health Analysis Divisions, at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Summer Conference.
Presentation by Mark Hadley, CBO's Chief Operating Officer and General Counsel, at the 2nd NABO-OECD Annual Conference of Asian Parliamentary Budget Officials.
Presentation by Daria Pelech, an analyst in CBO’s Health Analysis Division, at the Center for Health Insurance Reform McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University.
This slide deck highlights CBO’s key findings about the outlook for the economy as described in its new report, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034.
Presentation by CBO analysts Rebecca Heller, Shannon Mok, and James Pearce, and Census Bureau research economist Jonathan Rothbaum at the American Economic Association Annual Meeting, Committee on Economic Statistics.
Presentation by Eric J. Labs, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Bank of America 2024 Defense Outlook and Commercial Aerospace Forum.
Presentation by Elizabeth Ash, William Carrington, Rebecca Heller, and Grace Hwang of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis and Health Analysis divisions to the Children’s Health Group, American Academy of Pediatrics.
Presentation by Molly Dahl, Chief of CBO’s Long-Term Analysis Unit, at a meeting of the National Conference of State Legislatures’ Budget Working Group.
In the President’s 2024 budget request, total military compensation is $551 billion, including veterans' benefits. That amount represents an increase of 134 percent since 1999 after removing the effects of inflation.
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
This session provides a comprehensive overview of the latest updates to the Uniform Administrative Requirements, Cost Principles, and Audit Requirements for Federal Awards (commonly known as the Uniform Guidance) outlined in the 2 CFR 200.
With a focus on the 2024 revisions issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), participants will gain insight into the key changes affecting federal grant recipients. The session will delve into critical regulatory updates, providing attendees with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate and comply with the evolving landscape of federal grant management.
Learning Objectives:
- Understand the rationale behind the 2024 updates to the Uniform Guidance outlined in 2 CFR 200, and their implications for federal grant recipients.
- Identify the key changes and revisions introduced by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the 2024 edition of 2 CFR 200.
- Gain proficiency in applying the updated regulations to ensure compliance with federal grant requirements and avoid potential audit findings.
- Develop strategies for effectively implementing the new guidelines within the grant management processes of their respective organizations, fostering efficiency and accountability in federal grant administration.
Many ways to support street children.pptxSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
Donate Us
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Understanding the Challenges of Street ChildrenSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-individuals-can-support-street-children-in-india/
#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
1. A Joint Seminar by the Congressional Budget Office
and the Congressional Research Service
June 14, 2022
Christina Hawley Anthony, Chief, Projections Unit, Budget Analysis Division
Robert Arnold, Chief, Projections Unit, Macroeconomic Analysis Division
Joshua Shakin, Chief, Revenue Estimating Unit, Tax Analysis Division
The Budget and Economic Outlook:
2022 to 2032
3. 2
To provide the Congress with objective, nonpartisan, and timely analyses of
legislative proposals and of budgetary and economic issues to support the
Congressional budget process
CBO’s Role
5. 4
A detailed projection for the current year and the ensuing 10 years of federal
spending, revenues, and the resulting deficits and surpluses
Based on CBO’s economic forecast
Based on the assumption that current laws governing taxes and spending
generally remain in place
Not a forecast of future budgetary outcomes; those depend on future
Congressional action and other factors
Generally provided two or three times a year
Reported in the annual Budget and Economic Outlook and subsequent reports
What Is CBO’s Baseline?
6. 5
Principles and rules mainly come from law, budget resolutions, House and Senate rules,
and the 1967 Report of the President’s Commission on Budget Concepts.
A key law is the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act, section 257.
– Defines the baseline
– Sets out rules for projecting spending and revenues
– Requires an assumption of full funding for entitlements
– Directs the treatment of expiring programs and certain excise taxes
How Is the Baseline Constructed?
7. 6
A benchmark for measuring the budgetary effects of proposed changes in federal
revenues and mandatory spending
Basis for:
– Cost estimates for proposed legislation
– CBO’s analyses of the President’s annual budget
– CBO’s budget options volume
– Other reports (including those describing CBO’s long-term budget projections)
– Assessments of multiyear budget trends
Often a starting point for budget resolutions
How Do CBO and the Congress Use the Baseline?
11. 10
Graphics editors can export charts from reports into nicely fitted images for Powerpoint. The caption is editable text.
Total Deficits, Primary Deficits, and Net Interest Outlays
In CBO’s projections,
primary and total deficits
initially shrink as a
percentage of GDP and then
generally increase,
particularly in the second
half of the projection period.
The aging of the population
and the rising costs of
health care boost primary
deficits; net interest outlays,
which double as a
percentage of GDP over the
projection period, further
increase total deficits.
12. 11
A Comparison of Deficits in CBO’s Baseline Projections With Deficits and
Surpluses at Other Times in the Past 50 Years When Unemployment Was Low
Although the unemployment
rate remains below 5 percent
from 2023 to 2032 in CBO’s
projections, deficits in those
years are large by historical
standards. Total deficits
average 5.1 percent of GDP,
and primary deficits,
2.5 percent. The average
unemployment rate was less
than 5 percent in 11 of the
past 50 fiscal years. In those
11 years, total deficits
averaged 1.2 percent of GDP,
and the budget recorded an
average primary surplus
equal to 0.7 percent of GDP.
13. 12
Federal Debt Held by the Public, 1900 to 2052
Federal debt held by the
public is projected to increase
in most years in the projection
period, reaching 110 percent
of GDP in 2032—higher than
it has ever been. In the two
decades that follow, growing
deficits are projected to push
federal debt higher still, to
185 percent in 2052.
14. 13
Total Outlays and Revenues
Outlays are projected to
drop from recent highs, as
pandemic-related spending
wanes, and then trend
upward, as they did before
the pandemic. Revenues are
projected to increase sharply
this year and then hover
around their historical
average as a share of the
economy.
16. 15
The Uncertainty of CBO’s Baseline Projections
of the Budget Deficit
CBO estimates that there is a
roughly two-thirds chance
that by 2027, the deficit as a
share of gross domestic
product would be
2.4 percentage points smaller
or larger than the agency
projects.
17. 16
Changes in CBO’s Baseline Projections of the
10-Year Deficit Since July 2021
The cumulative deficit for
2022 to 2031 is $2.4 trillion
larger in CBO’s current
baseline projections than it
was in the agency’s July
2021 projections. Legislative
changes account for most of
that increase. Revenue
increases, which reduce
deficits, were mostly offset
by economic changes that
increased outlays,
particularly those for interest
and Social Security.
28. 27
Total Revenues
Total revenues as a share of
GDP are expected to reach
19.6 percent this year—their
highest level in two decades.
Revenues are projected to
remain above their 50-year
average of 17.3 percent of
GDP throughout the next
decade.
29. 28
Revenues, by Category
Receipts from individual
income taxes—the largest
source of federal revenues—
rose sharply in 2021 and are
projected to do so again in
2022 as the economy
recovers from recession and
temporary provisions enacted
in response to the pandemic
expire. Those receipts are
projected to rise again after
2025 because of the
scheduled expiration of some
provisions of the 2017 tax act.
30. 29
Estimated Outlays, Revenues, and Tax Expenditures in 2022
Tax expenditures are
provisions of the tax
system (such as tax
credits and
deductions) that cause
revenues to be lower
than they would be
otherwise. Like federal
spending programs,
tax expenditures
contribute to the
budget deficit. In 2022,
the total revenues
forgone because of tax
expenditures are
projected to equal
8.3 percent of GDP.
31. 30
Changes in CBO’s Baseline Projections of the
10-Year Deficit Since July 2021
The cumulative deficit for
2022 to 2031 is $2.4 trillion
larger in CBO’s current
baseline projections than it
was in the agency’s July
2021 projections. Legislative
changes account for most of
that increase. Revenue
increases, which reduce
deficits, were mostly offset
by economic changes that
increased outlays,
particularly those for interest
and Social Security.
32. 31
Changes Since July 2021 in CBO’s Forecast of the
Growth of Nominal Gross Domestic Product
As a result of upward
revisions to the forecast of
nominal GDP, revenues from
income, payroll, and
corporate taxes are now
projected to be higher than
CBO projected in July 2021.
33. 32
Changes Since July 2021 in CBO’s Forecast of the
Wages and Salaries
Stronger growth in wages
and salaries led to increases
in projected revenues from
income and payroll taxes.
35. 34
Outlays, by Category of Spending
Under current law, mandatory
outlays fall for the next few
years before higher spending
for Social Security and the
major health care programs
cause those outlays to rise.
Discretionary outlays fall in
relation to GDP as funding
grows modestly in nominal
terms. Net interest outlays
increase substantially as
interest rates rise and debt
mounts.
38. 37
Changes in CBO’s Baseline Projections of the
10-Year Deficit Since July 2021
The cumulative deficit for
2022 to 2031 is $2.4 trillion
larger in CBO’s current
baseline projections than it
was in the agency’s July
2021 projections. Legislative
changes account for most of
that increase. Revenue
increases, which reduce
deficits, were mostly offset
by economic changes that
increased outlays,
particularly those for interest
and Social Security.
40. 39
Note: IIJA = Infrastructure Investment and Job Act.
Discretionary Outlays in CBO’s Baseline and
Under Three Alternatives
Under a scenario in which
appropriations grew with
nominal GDP, discretionary
outlays as a share of the
economy would remain
relatively steady. Under the
other three scenarios,
including the scenario
underlying CBO’s baseline
budget projections, outlays
would fall to or below recent
historical lows as a
percentage of GDP.
41. 40
Data sources: Congressional Budget Office; staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation. See www.cbo.gov/publication/57950#data.
Budgetary Effects of Selected Alternative Assumptions About
Future Revenue Policies
Billions of Dollars
Increase (-) in the Deficit, Excluding Debt Service
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Total,
2023–
2032
Extend the 2017 Tax Act’s Changes to
Individual Income Tax Provisions 0 * * -6 -167 -301 -295 -307 -317 -328 -342 -2,064
Extend Higher Estate and Gift Tax
Exemptions 0 0 * -1 -2 -13 -15 -16 -17 -18 -20 -102
Extend the 2017 Tax Act's Changes to the
Tax Treatment of Investment Costs 0 -61 -46 -48 -48 -49 -44 -34 -28 -24 -21 -404
Maintain Certain Business Tax Provisions
Altered by the 2017 Tax Act 0 0 0 0 -10 -18 -19 -19 -19 -20 -20 -125
Extend Expiring Tax Provisions Other Than
Those From the 2017 Tax Act 0 -3 -4 -5 -11 -14 -16 -16 -17 -18 -20 -123
Retroactively Extend Certain Expired Tax
Provisions 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 -5 -5 -6 -7 -37
Extend Trade Promotion Programs 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -11