To show how transportation funding is handled in CBO's cost estimates, this slide deck provides a guide to the agency's 2012 estimate of the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act.
Presentation by Sarah Puro, Principal Analyst in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, at the Annual Conference of the National Federation of Municipal Analysts.
The Fixing America’s Surface Transportation Act, which was signed into law on December 4, 2015, provided $281 billion in contract authority for surface transportation programs through 2020. But projected spending from the Highway Trust Fund exceeds its revenues. Under current law, CBO estimates that the Highway Account of the Highway Trust Fund will be able to meet obligations through 2021 and the Transit Account through 2020.
Some proposals involve establishing a new entity to finance infrastructure investments. However, even if such an entity is not officially a federal agency, its activity might be considered part of the federal budget.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, CBO’s Assistant Director for Macroeconomic Analysis, and Teri Gullo, CBO's Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, to Congressional Staff.
CBO provides formal, written estimates of the cost of virtually every bill approved by Congressional committees to show how the bill would affect spending or revenues over the next 5 or 10 years, depending on the type of spending involved. In May, the Congress adopted a concurrent resolution on the budget for fiscal year 2016 that requires CBO, to the greatest extent practicable, to incorporate macroeconomic effects into its 10-year cost estimates for major legislation that Congressional committees approve. Such estimates must also include, when practicable, a qualitative assessment of the budgetary effects for the following 20 years. Incorporating such macroeconomic feedback into cost estimates is often called dynamic scoring. This presentation describes how CBO will prepare such estimates.
Presentation by Ben Page, CBO's Fiscal Policy Studies Unit Chief, at the National Tax Association 108th Annual Conference on Taxation.
In May, the Congress adopted a concurrent resolution on the budget for fiscal year 2016. That resolution requires CBO, to the greatest extent practicable, to incorporate macroeconomic effects into its 10-year cost estimates for major legislation that Congressional committees approve. Such estimates must also include, when practicable, a qualitative assessment of the budgetary effects for the following 20 years. Incorporating such macroeconomic feedback into cost estimates is often called dynamic scoring. This presentation describes how CBO will prepare such estimates.
On March 7, 2016, Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, will present at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
CBO has devoted significant effort to developing analytical tools that enable it to assess the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policies and how such effects, or "macroeconomic feedback," would affect the federal budget. When CBO incorporates such effects in its cost estimates of major legislation, the approach is often called dynamic scoring. This presentation describes how CBO prepares estimates of macroeconomic feedback, and provides a case study on proposed legislation to repeal the Affordable Care Act.
Presentation on Capitol Hill in a Panel Discussion with Local Leaders, by Sarah Puro, Principal Analyst, Budget Analysis Division, Congressional Budget Office
Presentation by Sarah Puro, Principal Analyst in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, at the Annual Conference of the National Federation of Municipal Analysts.
The Fixing America’s Surface Transportation Act, which was signed into law on December 4, 2015, provided $281 billion in contract authority for surface transportation programs through 2020. But projected spending from the Highway Trust Fund exceeds its revenues. Under current law, CBO estimates that the Highway Account of the Highway Trust Fund will be able to meet obligations through 2021 and the Transit Account through 2020.
Some proposals involve establishing a new entity to finance infrastructure investments. However, even if such an entity is not officially a federal agency, its activity might be considered part of the federal budget.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, CBO’s Assistant Director for Macroeconomic Analysis, and Teri Gullo, CBO's Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, to Congressional Staff.
CBO provides formal, written estimates of the cost of virtually every bill approved by Congressional committees to show how the bill would affect spending or revenues over the next 5 or 10 years, depending on the type of spending involved. In May, the Congress adopted a concurrent resolution on the budget for fiscal year 2016 that requires CBO, to the greatest extent practicable, to incorporate macroeconomic effects into its 10-year cost estimates for major legislation that Congressional committees approve. Such estimates must also include, when practicable, a qualitative assessment of the budgetary effects for the following 20 years. Incorporating such macroeconomic feedback into cost estimates is often called dynamic scoring. This presentation describes how CBO will prepare such estimates.
Presentation by Ben Page, CBO's Fiscal Policy Studies Unit Chief, at the National Tax Association 108th Annual Conference on Taxation.
In May, the Congress adopted a concurrent resolution on the budget for fiscal year 2016. That resolution requires CBO, to the greatest extent practicable, to incorporate macroeconomic effects into its 10-year cost estimates for major legislation that Congressional committees approve. Such estimates must also include, when practicable, a qualitative assessment of the budgetary effects for the following 20 years. Incorporating such macroeconomic feedback into cost estimates is often called dynamic scoring. This presentation describes how CBO will prepare such estimates.
On March 7, 2016, Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, will present at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
CBO has devoted significant effort to developing analytical tools that enable it to assess the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policies and how such effects, or "macroeconomic feedback," would affect the federal budget. When CBO incorporates such effects in its cost estimates of major legislation, the approach is often called dynamic scoring. This presentation describes how CBO prepares estimates of macroeconomic feedback, and provides a case study on proposed legislation to repeal the Affordable Care Act.
Presentation on Capitol Hill in a Panel Discussion with Local Leaders, by Sarah Puro, Principal Analyst, Budget Analysis Division, Congressional Budget Office
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, CBO’s Assistant Director for Macroeconomic Analysis, and Teri Gullo, CBO's Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
Presentation by Peter Fontaine, CBO's Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, to a Global Network of Parliamentary Budget Offices Community Meeting Sponsored by the World Bank Institute
Presentation by Megan Carroll and David Newman, analysts in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, at the spring symposium of the American Association for Budget and Program Analysis.
Since 1975, CBO has produced nonpartisan analyses of budgetary and economic issues to support the Congressional budget process. Each year, the agency’s budget analysts produce hundreds of cost estimates for proposed legislation. This presentation describes some of the principles that underlie those estimates and how the estimates relate to Congressional budget enforcement procedures.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the National Bureau of Economic Research conference, Economics of Infrastructure Investment.
Federal investment in physical capital, education, and research and development boosts private-sector productivity gradually, CBO estimates. The overall macroeconomic and budgetary effects of federal investment depend on how that spending is financed.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, CBO’s Assistant Director for Macroeconomic Analysis, to the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
CBO has devoted significant effort to developing analytical tools that enable it to assess the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policies and how such effects, or "macroeconomic feedback," would affect the federal budget. This presentation describes the tools CBO uses to estimate the long-term economic effects of fiscal policies.
Presentation by Robert Shackleton, an analyst for CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the NABE Foundation's 12th Annual Economic Measurement Seminar.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the Brookings Institution’s Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy.
Revenues and spending as a share of economic output have varied over business cycles as a result of both changes in legislation and automatic stabilizers. Automatic stabilizers are the automatic increases in revenues and decreases in outlays in the federal budget that occur when the economy strengthens, and the opposite changes that occur when the economy weakens.
Presentation by Ben Page, CBO's Fiscal Policy Studies Unit Chief, at the National Tax Association 108th Annual Conference on Taxation.
CBO’s long-term budget projections generally reflect current law and estimates of future economic conditions and demographic trends. Those projections depend on estimates of the future paths of mortality rates, productivity, interest rates, and health care costs, among many other variables. To illustrate some of the uncertainty about long-term budgetary outcomes, CBO constructed alternative projections showing what would happen to the budget if those factors differed from the values used in the extended baseline.
Presentation by Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland.
Since 1975, CBO has produced nonpartisan analyses of budgetary and economic issues to support the Congressional budget process. Each year, the agency’s economists and budget analysts produce dozens of reports and hundreds of cost estimates for proposed legislation.
One such report is the annual Budget and Economic Outlook, which is generally released each January and updated in August, and projects economic and budget outcomes under the assumption that current laws regarding federal spending and revenues generally remain in place. Those baseline projections cover the 10-year period used in the Congressional budget process. This presentation includes some key elements of those projections.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the Peter G. Peterson Foundation’s 2016 Fiscal Summit.
In 2016, the federal budget deficit will increase, in relation to the size of the economy, for the first time since 2009, according to CBO’s estimates. If current laws generally remained unchanged, the deficit would grow over the next 10 years, and by 2026 it would be considerably larger than its average over the past 50 years, CBO projects. Debt held by the public would also grow significantly from its already high level.
To analyze the state of the budget in the long term, CBO has extrapolated its 10-year baseline projections an additional two decades. If current laws governing taxes and spending remain in place, the outlook for the budget would steadily worsen over the long term, with revenues falling well short of spending. CBO is in the process of completing a detailed update of its long-term projections; but in January the agency did a simplified update. On that basis, budget deficits are projected to rise steadily and federal debt held by the public is projected to exceed 130 percent of GDP by 2040.
To put the federal budget on a sustainable path for the long term, lawmakers would have to make major changes to tax policies, spending policies, or both – by reducing spending for large benefit programs below the projected amounts, letting revenues rise more than they would under current law, or adopting some combination of those approaches. The size of such changes would depend on the amount of federal debt that lawmakers considered appropriate.
The programs funded through the Highway Trust Fund are currently authorized through 2021. Activities funded through the Airport and Airway Trust Fund are currently authorized through 2023.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, CBO’s Assistant Director for Macroeconomic Analysis, and Teri Gullo, CBO's Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
Presentation by Peter Fontaine, CBO's Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, to a Global Network of Parliamentary Budget Offices Community Meeting Sponsored by the World Bank Institute
Presentation by Megan Carroll and David Newman, analysts in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, at the spring symposium of the American Association for Budget and Program Analysis.
Since 1975, CBO has produced nonpartisan analyses of budgetary and economic issues to support the Congressional budget process. Each year, the agency’s budget analysts produce hundreds of cost estimates for proposed legislation. This presentation describes some of the principles that underlie those estimates and how the estimates relate to Congressional budget enforcement procedures.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the National Bureau of Economic Research conference, Economics of Infrastructure Investment.
Federal investment in physical capital, education, and research and development boosts private-sector productivity gradually, CBO estimates. The overall macroeconomic and budgetary effects of federal investment depend on how that spending is financed.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, CBO’s Assistant Director for Macroeconomic Analysis, to the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
CBO has devoted significant effort to developing analytical tools that enable it to assess the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policies and how such effects, or "macroeconomic feedback," would affect the federal budget. This presentation describes the tools CBO uses to estimate the long-term economic effects of fiscal policies.
Presentation by Robert Shackleton, an analyst for CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the NABE Foundation's 12th Annual Economic Measurement Seminar.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the Brookings Institution’s Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy.
Revenues and spending as a share of economic output have varied over business cycles as a result of both changes in legislation and automatic stabilizers. Automatic stabilizers are the automatic increases in revenues and decreases in outlays in the federal budget that occur when the economy strengthens, and the opposite changes that occur when the economy weakens.
Presentation by Ben Page, CBO's Fiscal Policy Studies Unit Chief, at the National Tax Association 108th Annual Conference on Taxation.
CBO’s long-term budget projections generally reflect current law and estimates of future economic conditions and demographic trends. Those projections depend on estimates of the future paths of mortality rates, productivity, interest rates, and health care costs, among many other variables. To illustrate some of the uncertainty about long-term budgetary outcomes, CBO constructed alternative projections showing what would happen to the budget if those factors differed from the values used in the extended baseline.
Presentation by Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland.
Since 1975, CBO has produced nonpartisan analyses of budgetary and economic issues to support the Congressional budget process. Each year, the agency’s economists and budget analysts produce dozens of reports and hundreds of cost estimates for proposed legislation.
One such report is the annual Budget and Economic Outlook, which is generally released each January and updated in August, and projects economic and budget outcomes under the assumption that current laws regarding federal spending and revenues generally remain in place. Those baseline projections cover the 10-year period used in the Congressional budget process. This presentation includes some key elements of those projections.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the Peter G. Peterson Foundation’s 2016 Fiscal Summit.
In 2016, the federal budget deficit will increase, in relation to the size of the economy, for the first time since 2009, according to CBO’s estimates. If current laws generally remained unchanged, the deficit would grow over the next 10 years, and by 2026 it would be considerably larger than its average over the past 50 years, CBO projects. Debt held by the public would also grow significantly from its already high level.
To analyze the state of the budget in the long term, CBO has extrapolated its 10-year baseline projections an additional two decades. If current laws governing taxes and spending remain in place, the outlook for the budget would steadily worsen over the long term, with revenues falling well short of spending. CBO is in the process of completing a detailed update of its long-term projections; but in January the agency did a simplified update. On that basis, budget deficits are projected to rise steadily and federal debt held by the public is projected to exceed 130 percent of GDP by 2040.
To put the federal budget on a sustainable path for the long term, lawmakers would have to make major changes to tax policies, spending policies, or both – by reducing spending for large benefit programs below the projected amounts, letting revenues rise more than they would under current law, or adopting some combination of those approaches. The size of such changes would depend on the amount of federal debt that lawmakers considered appropriate.
The programs funded through the Highway Trust Fund are currently authorized through 2021. Activities funded through the Airport and Airway Trust Fund are currently authorized through 2023.
Federal spending for highways, which takes place largely through grants to state and local governments, has equaled a fairly stable percentage of gross domestic product over the past 30 years. Since 2001, that spending has exceeded the revenues from fuel and other taxes that are credited to the Highway Trust Fund for highway programs. Policymakers have various options for changing the ways in which the federal government spends on highways and raises money to fund those expenditures.
Hawaii Gov. David Ige's budget director, Wes Machida, delivered the administration's financial plan to lawmakers Jan. 21, 2015, at the Capitol auditorium.
A few times each year, CBO produces a baseline budget projection—a detailed projection of federal spending, revenues, and resulting deficits for the current year and the subsequent 10 years, reflecting an assumption that current laws generally remain unchanged. That baseline serves as a neutral benchmark for measuring the budgetary effects of proposed changes in federal revenues and mandatory spending. It is the basis for CBO’s cost estimates for proposed legislation, analyses of the President’s annual budget, volume of policy options that would reduce the deficit, and assessments of multiyear budget trends. It is often a starting point for development of Congressional budget resolutions.
This presentation describes those baseline projections and how they are formulated. It also summarizes CBO’s most recent projections.
Presentation by Theresa Gullo, Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, and John McClelland, Assistant Director for Tax Analysis, at a joint seminar by CBO and the Congressional Research Service for Congressional staff.
Presentation by Kathleen Burke, John McClelland, and Jennifer Shand, analysts in CBO’s Tax Analysis Division, to the National Association of Legislative Fiscal Offices.
14 clauses to consider when debating the Uganda Public Finance Bill, 2012CSBAG
This document is a guide for Palriamentarians when debating the Uganda Public Finance Bill, 2012. It is produced by the e Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group (CSBAG)
The federal budget is a measure of the overall scope and magnitude of federal activities that involve the spending or collection of money. The net costs of those activities are shown in the budget mostly on a cash basis, but some transactions are recorded by means of accrual accounting. This presentation discusses the advantages and disadvantages of cash and accrual measures when accounting for various federal insurance programs and federal retirement programs.
The federal budget is a measure of the overall scope and magnitude of federal activities that involve the spending or collection of money. The net costs of those activities are shown in the budget mostly on a cash basis, but some transactions are recorded by means of accrual accounting. This presentation discusses the relative merits of cash and accrual measures when accounting for various federal insurance programs and federal retirement programs.
For its baseline budget projections, CBO estimates the revenue effects of enacted legislation that changed the amount of funding for tax enforcement. Similarly, CBO’s annual analysis of the President’s budget includes its estimates of the revenue effects of the Administration’s proposals to change such funding. (But CBO does not estimate the changes in revenue from proposals to amend the tax code; those estimates are the responsibility of the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation.)
However, for legislation being considered by the Congress, CBO does not include projections of additional receipts from proposed increases in funding for tax enforcement in its estimates of the budgetary effects that are used for budget enforcement purposes. That approach follows the budget scorekeeping guidelines specified in the conference report for the Balanced Budget Act of 1997.
These slides describe the circumstances under which CBO estimates the revenue effects of changes in funding for tax enforcement and the factors that affect those estimates. They were the basis for a presentation by Janet Holtzblatt, a unit chief in CBO's Tax Analysis Division, at the sixth annual Internal Revenue Service-Tax Policy Center Joint Research Conference on Tax Administration.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Robert Arnold, and Joshua Shakin, CBO Unit Chiefs, at a joint seminar by CBO and the Congressional Research Service.
Presentation by Theresa Gullo, CBO's Director of Budget Analysis, to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's Committee of Senior Budget Officials.
This presentation was made by Ratanak Hav, Cambodia, at the 14th OECD-Asian Senior Budget Officials Meeting held in Bangkok, Thailand, on 13-14 December 2018
CBO provides additional information about its most recent projections of remittances from the Federal Reserve, which have decreased largely because of higher projected short-term interest rates in 2023 and 2024.
Similar to Anatomy of a Cost Estimate for Legislation Funding Transportation Programs (20)
Presentation by Jared Jageler, David Adler, Noelia Duchovny, and Evan Herrnstadt, analysts in CBO’s Microeconomic Studies and Health Analysis Divisions, at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Summer Conference.
Presentation by Mark Hadley, CBO's Chief Operating Officer and General Counsel, at the 2nd NABO-OECD Annual Conference of Asian Parliamentary Budget Officials.
Presentation by Daria Pelech, an analyst in CBO’s Health Analysis Division, at the Center for Health Insurance Reform McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University.
This slide deck highlights CBO’s key findings about the outlook for the economy as described in its new report, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034.
Presentation by CBO analysts Rebecca Heller, Shannon Mok, and James Pearce, and Census Bureau research economist Jonathan Rothbaum at the American Economic Association Annual Meeting, Committee on Economic Statistics.
Presentation by Eric J. Labs, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Bank of America 2024 Defense Outlook and Commercial Aerospace Forum.
Presentation by Elizabeth Ash, William Carrington, Rebecca Heller, and Grace Hwang of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis and Health Analysis divisions to the Children’s Health Group, American Academy of Pediatrics.
Presentation by Molly Dahl, Chief of CBO’s Long-Term Analysis Unit, at a meeting of the National Conference of State Legislatures’ Budget Working Group.
In the President’s 2024 budget request, total military compensation is $551 billion, including veterans' benefits. That amount represents an increase of 134 percent since 1999 after removing the effects of inflation.
ZGB - The Role of Generative AI in Government transformation.pdfSaeed Al Dhaheri
This keynote was presented during the the 7th edition of the UAE Hackathon 2024. It highlights the role of AI and Generative AI in addressing government transformation to achieve zero government bureaucracy
Many ways to support street children.pptxSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-individuals-can-support-street-children-in-india/
#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
Russian anarchist and anti-war movement in the third year of full-scale warAntti Rautiainen
Anarchist group ANA Regensburg hosted my online-presentation on 16th of May 2024, in which I discussed tactics of anti-war activism in Russia, and reasons why the anti-war movement has not been able to make an impact to change the course of events yet. Cases of anarchists repressed for anti-war activities are presented, as well as strategies of support for political prisoners, and modest successes in supporting their struggles.
Thumbnail picture is by MediaZona, you may read their report on anti-war arson attacks in Russia here: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/10/13/burn-map
Links:
Autonomous Action
http://Avtonom.org
Anarchist Black Cross Moscow
http://Avtonom.org/abc
Solidarity Zone
https://t.me/solidarity_zone
Memorial
https://memopzk.org/, https://t.me/pzk_memorial
OVD-Info
https://en.ovdinfo.org/antiwar-ovd-info-guide
RosUznik
https://rosuznik.org/
Uznik Online
http://uznikonline.tilda.ws/
Russian Reader
https://therussianreader.com/
ABC Irkutsk
https://abc38.noblogs.org/
Send mail to prisoners from abroad:
http://Prisonmail.online
YouTube: https://youtu.be/c5nSOdU48O8
Spotify: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/libertarianlifecoach/episodes/Russian-anarchist-and-anti-war-movement-in-the-third-year-of-full-scale-war-e2k8ai4
Canadian Immigration Tracker March 2024 - Key SlidesAndrew Griffith
Highlights
Permanent Residents decrease along with percentage of TR2PR decline to 52 percent of all Permanent Residents.
March asylum claim data not issued as of May 27 (unusually late). Irregular arrivals remain very small.
Study permit applications experiencing sharp decrease as a result of announced caps over 50 percent compared to February.
Citizenship numbers remain stable.
Slide 3 has the overall numbers and change.
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
This session provides a comprehensive overview of the latest updates to the Uniform Administrative Requirements, Cost Principles, and Audit Requirements for Federal Awards (commonly known as the Uniform Guidance) outlined in the 2 CFR 200.
With a focus on the 2024 revisions issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), participants will gain insight into the key changes affecting federal grant recipients. The session will delve into critical regulatory updates, providing attendees with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate and comply with the evolving landscape of federal grant management.
Learning Objectives:
- Understand the rationale behind the 2024 updates to the Uniform Guidance outlined in 2 CFR 200, and their implications for federal grant recipients.
- Identify the key changes and revisions introduced by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the 2024 edition of 2 CFR 200.
- Gain proficiency in applying the updated regulations to ensure compliance with federal grant requirements and avoid potential audit findings.
- Develop strategies for effectively implementing the new guidelines within the grant management processes of their respective organizations, fostering efficiency and accountability in federal grant administration.
Understanding the Challenges of Street ChildrenSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-individuals-can-support-street-children-in-india/
#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
2024: The FAR - Federal Acquisition Regulations, Part 36
Anatomy of a Cost Estimate for Legislation Funding Transportation Programs
1. Congressional Budget Office
Anatomy of a Cost Estimate for
Legislation Funding
Transportation Programs
An explanation of the cost estimate for the conference report
for the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act
(MAP-21; Public Law 112-141)
June 2014
2. CBO
Identifying all of the budgetary effects of legislation
funding transportation programs can be complicated
because those programs have split budgetary
treatment.
Their budget authority is classified as mandatory and
their outlays are classified as discretionary.
3. CBO
CBO’s cost estimates show the incremental effects
of legislation relative to what would occur under
current law or, for certain programs, what is assumed
in CBO’s baseline projections.
As a result, the effects shown in the cost estimate
differ from the total cost to the Treasury of
implementing the legislation because some of the
effects of the legislation are assumed in CBO’s
baseline projections (as required by the laws that
govern those projections).
4. CBO
Places to Look for Information in CBO’s Cost
Estimate for MAP-21
What effects are
considered in enforcing
budget rules?
How much spending is
authorized from the
Highway Trust Fund?
What will the balances in
the Highway Trust Fund
be under the bill?
Table 1. Changes in
Direct Spending and
Revenues
Table 2. Changes in
Spending Subject to
Appropriation
Table 3. Summary of
Cash Flows in the
Highway Trust Fund
6. CBO
Pay-As-You-Go rules are enforced on the basis of the
effects of legislation on direct (or mandatory)
spending and revenues.
Direct spending is the budget authority provided by
laws other than appropriation acts and the outlays
that result from that budget authority.
Contract authority is one type of mandatory budget
authority. It is the authority to obligate funds in
advance of an appropriation act.
7. CBO
Table 1 Has Two Parts
Changes in
Direct Spending
Changes in
Revenues
CHANGES IN REVENUES
Pension Provisions 595 2,391 4,501 5,044 3,540 1,446 74 -882 -2,303 -3,046 -2,616 17,517 8,744
Transfer of Excess Pension Assets
and Allow Section 420 to Apply to
Life Insurance Benefits 0 0 20 41 42 43 44 45 47 48 24 145 354
Phased Retirement 0 1 2 3 4 4 4 3 3 1 -1 14 24
Expand Definition of Tobacco
Manufacturer to Include Roll-
Your-Own-Cigarette Machines 2 12 13 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 57 94
Increased Civil Penalties for
Lenders 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 10
Total Changes 597 2,405 4,537 5,100 3,597 1,503 131 -826 -2,245 -2,989 -2,585 17,738 9,226
On-budget Revenues 597 2,291 4,324 4,888 3,425 1,422 141 -726 -1,998 -2,712 -2,355 16,946 9,299
Off-budget Revenues 0 114 213 212 172 81 -10 -100 -247 -277 -230 792 -73
TABLE 1. ESTIMATE OF THE EFFECTS ON DIRECT SPENDING AND REVENUES OF THE CONFERENCE
REPORT FOR H.R. 4348, MAP-21, AS POSTED ON THE WEB SITE OF THE HOUSE COMMITTEE
ON RULES ON JUNE 28, 2012
By Fiscal Year, in Millions of Dollars
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
2012-
2017
2012-
2022
CHANGES IN DIRECT SPENDING
Transportation Contract Authority
Budget Authority 0 388 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 4,716 10,126
Estimated Outlays 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8. CBO
Changes in Direct Spending: “The Score”
The cost estimate shows the increase in contract
authority for the years covered by MAP-21 (2013 and
2014) and the resulting increase in the baseline for
subsequent years. Those increases total about $1 billion
a year after 2013.
TABLE 1. ESTIMATE OF THE EFFECTS ON DIRECT SPENDING AND REVENUES OF THE CONFERENCE REPORT FOR
H.R. 4348, MAP-21, AS POSTED ON THE WEB SITE OF THE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON RULES ON JUNE 28, 2012
By Fiscal Year, in Millions of Dollars
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
2012-
2017
2012-
2022
CHANGES IN DIRECT SPENDING
Transportation Contract
Authority
Budget Authority 0 388 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 4,716 10,126
Estimated Outlays 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9. CBO
How Are the Budget Authority Amounts in
Table 1 Calculated?
As required by law, CBO’s baseline reflects the assumption
that most mandatory programs (including programs funded
from the Highway Trust Fund) that expire on specific dates
will continue to operate as they did immediately before
their expiration.
Years Covered by
MAP-21 Assumptions Contained in CBO’s Baseline
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Baseline Contract Authority
(Before MAP-21) 50,158 50,852 50,852 50,852 50,852 50,852 50,852 50,852 50,852 50,852
Contract Authority
Provided by MAP-21 50,545 51,934
Assumed in the baseline
after MAP-21 51,934 51,934 51,934 51,934 51,934 51,934 51,934 51,934
Difference
(Shown in Table 1) 388 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082
(Millions of dollars, by fiscal year)
(This table does not appear in the original cost estimate.)
10. CBO
Total Contract Authority Provided by the Bill Differs
From the Increase Shown in CBO’s Cost Estimate
Footnote a to Table 1 shows the total estimated
authority to spend stemming from the bill:
“H.R. 4348 would provide $12.4 billion in contract
authority (a mandatory form of budget authority)
for the last quarter of fiscal year 2012, $50.5 billion
for fiscal year 2013, and $51.9 billion for fiscal year
2014, CBO estimates.”
CBO estimated that the bill provided $102 billion in
contract authority in 2013 and 2014, but the increase
over 10 years relative to CBO’s baseline was only
$10.1 billion.
11. CBO
Estimated Outlays in Table 1 Are Zero
Table 1 records no outlays from changes in direct
spending because CBO assumes that contract authority
provided by the bill will continue to be controlled by
limitations on obligations contained in appropriation acts.
Outlays are shown in Table 2 as discretionary spending.
TABLE 1. ESTIMATE OF THE EFFECTS ON DIRECT SPENDING AND REVENUES OF THE CONFERENCE REPORT FOR
H.R. 4348, MAP-21, AS POSTED ON THE WEB SITE OF THE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON RULES ON JUNE 28, 2012
By Fiscal Year, in Millions of Dollars
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
2012-
2017
2012-
2022
CHANGES IN DIRECT SPENDING
Transportation Contract
Authority
Budget Authoritya 0 388 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 4,716 10,126
Estimated Outlaysb 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12. CBO
The obligation limitations set in appropriation acts
control the amount of contract authority that can
be used in any given year. The spending subject to
that obligation limitation is recorded as
discretionary outlays when it occurs.
13. CBO
Spending Derived From Permanent Authority
A small portion of spending for highway programs is
exempt from the obligation limitation. The outlays from
that spending are mandatory. However, because those
amounts are already contained in the baseline, they do
not appear in Table 1. They total $739 million per year,
CBO estimates.
14. CBO
The Budgetary Effects of Revenue Provisions:
Treatment of Excise Taxes on Motor Fuels
The taxes credited to the Highway Trust Fund are
excise taxes.
As required by law, CBO’s baseline reflects the
assumption that expiring excise taxes dedicated to trust
funds will be extended beyond their expiration. As a
result, when MAP-21 extended those taxes, the effects of
those extensions were not shown in the cost estimate,
which shows only the changes relative to CBO’s baseline.
16. CBO
Obligation limitations are set and controlled through
the appropriation process. Therefore, spending from
the Highway Trust Fund, which is subject to those
limitations, is also considered to be subject to future
appropriation action.
Thus, outlays stemming from the bill’s authorizations
are shown as discretionary.
17. CBO
Table 2 Shows New Spending From the Highway
Trust Fund and From General Appropriations
Spending from the
authority to obligate
funds that would be
subject to future
appropriation action
is shown in Table 2.
TABLE 2. CHANGES IN SPENDING SUBJECT TO APPROPRIATION UNDER THE
CONFERENCE REPORT FOR H.R. 4348, MAP-21, AS POSTED ON THE RULES
COMMITTEE WEB SITE ON JUNE 28, 2012
By Fiscal Year, in Millions of Dollars
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2013-
2017
CHANGES IN SPENDING SUBJECT TO
APPROPRIATION
Spending from the Highway Trust Fund
Estimated Obligation Limitation 49,409 50,103 0 0 0 99,512
Estimated Outlays 12,318 31,794 27,318 12,134 6,780 90,344
Other Authorized Transportation Programs
Estimated Authorization Level 2,697 2,198 0 0 0 4,895
Estimated Outlays 379 1,011 1,168 817 618 3,993
Non-Transportation Programs
Estimated Authorization Level 438 437 437 437 437 2,186
Estimated Outlays 80 245 337 431 435 1,528
Total Changes
Estimated Budgetary Resources 52,544 52,738 437 437 437 106,593
Estimated Outlays 12,777 33,050 28,823 13,382 7,833 95,865
18. CBO
CBO estimated that
MAP-21 would
authorize future
obligation limitations
totaling about
$100 billion for
2013 and 2014.
Ultimately, the
obligation
limitations are set in
appropriation acts.
The Obligation Limitation: About $100 Billion
TABLE 2. CHANGES IN SPENDING SUBJECT TO APPROPRIATION UNDER THE
CONFERENCE REPORT FOR H.R. 4348, MAP-21, AS POSTED ON THE RULES
COMMITTEE WEB SITE ON JUNE 28, 2012
By Fiscal Year, in Millions of Dollars
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2013-
2017
CHANGES IN SPENDING SUBJECT TO
APPROPRIATION
Spending from the Highway Trust Fund
Estimated Obligation Limitation 49,409 50,103 0 0 0 99,512
Estimated Outlays 12,318 31,794 27,318 12,134 6,780 90,344
Other Authorized Transportation Programs
Estimated Authorization Level 2,697 2,198 0 0 0 4,895
Estimated Outlays 379 1,011 1,168 817 618 3,993
Non-Transportation Programs
Estimated Authorization Level 438 437 437 437 437 2,186
Estimated Outlays 80 245 337 431 435 1,528
Total Changes
Estimated Budgetary Resources 52,544 52,738 437 437 437 106,593
Estimated Outlays 12,777 33,050 28,823 13,382 7,833 95,865
19. CBO
About $90 billion
would be spent from
the Highway Trust
Fund from 2013 to
2017 as a result of
the bill’s provisions.
Additional amounts
would be spent after
2017.
The Obligation Limitation: Outlays of $90 Billion
TABLE 2. CHANGES IN SPENDING SUBJECT TO APPROPRIATION UNDER THE
CONFERENCE REPORT FOR H.R. 4348, MAP-21, AS POSTED ON THE RULES
COMMITTEE WEB SITE ON JUNE 28, 2012
By Fiscal Year, in Millions of Dollars
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2013-
2017
CHANGES IN SPENDING SUBJECT TO
APPROPRIATION
Spending from the Highway Trust Fund
Estimated Obligation Limitation 49,409 50,103 0 0 0 99,512
Estimated Outlays 12,318 31,794 27,318 12,134 6,780 90,344
Other Authorized Transportation Programs
Estimated Authorization Level 2,697 2,198 0 0 0 4,895
Estimated Outlays 379 1,011 1,168 817 618 3,993
Non-Transportation Programs
Estimated Authorization Level 438 437 437 437 437 2,186
Estimated Outlays 80 245 337 431 435 1,528
Total Changes
Estimated Budgetary Resources 52,544 52,738 437 437 437 106,593
Estimated Outlays 12,777 33,050 28,823 13,382 7,833 95,865
20. CBO
Other Spending for Transportation Programs
The bill authorized
the future
appropriation of
about $5 billion for
other transportation
programs.
From 2013 to 2017,
about $4 billion
would be spent.
TABLE 2. CHANGES IN SPENDING SUBJECT TO APPROPRIATION UNDER THE
CONFERENCE REPORT FOR H.R. 4348, MAP-21, AS POSTED ON THE RULES
COMMITTEE WEB SITE ON JUNE 28, 2012
By Fiscal Year, in Millions of Dollars
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2013-
2017
CHANGES IN SPENDING SUBJECT TO
APPROPRIATION
Spending from the Highway Trust Fund
Estimated Obligation Limitation 49,409 50,103 0 0 0 99,512
Estimated Outlays 12,318 31,794 27,318 12,134 6,780 90,344
Other Authorized Transportation Programs
Estimated Authorization Level 2,697 2,198 0 0 0 4,895
Estimated Outlays 379 1,011 1,168 817 618 3,993
Non-Transportation Programs
Estimated Authorization Level 438 437 437 437 437 2,186
Estimated Outlays 80 245 337 431 435 1,528
Total Changes
Estimated Budgetary Resources 52,544 52,738 437 437 437 106,593
Estimated Outlays 12,777 33,050 28,823 13,382 7,833 95,865
21. CBO
Total Discretionary Outlays
Outlays would total
about $96 billion,
of which $90 billion
would come from
the Highway Trust
Fund.
TABLE 2. CHANGES IN SPENDING SUBJECT TO APPROPRIATION UNDER THE
CONFERENCE REPORT FOR H.R. 4348, MAP-21, AS POSTED ON THE RULES
COMMITTEE WEB SITE ON JUNE 28, 2012
By Fiscal Year, in Millions of Dollars
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2013-
2017
CHANGES IN SPENDING SUBJECT TO
APPROPRIATION
Spending from the Highway Trust Fund
Estimated Obligation Limitation 49,409 50,103 0 0 0 99,512
Estimated Outlays 12,318 31,794 27,318 12,134 6,780 90,344
Other Authorized Transportation Programs
Estimated Authorization Level 2,697 2,198 0 0 0 4,895
Estimated Outlays 379 1,011 1,168 817 618 3,993
Non-Transportation Programs
Estimated Authorization Level 438 437 437 437 437 2,186
Estimated Outlays 80 245 337 431 435 1,528
Total Changes
Estimated Budgetary Resources 52,544 52,738 437 437 437 106,593
Estimated Outlays 12,777 33,050 28,823 13,382 7,833 95,865
22. CBO
Table 3.
Summary of Cash Flows in the
Highway Trust Fund Under the
Provisions of MAP-21
(Status of the Highway Trust Fund)
23. CBO
The Highway
Trust Fund:
Two Accounts
The highway account
is for highway
construction and
highway safety
programs.
The transit account
is for transit
programs.
TABLE 3. SUMMARY OF CASH FLOWS FOR ACCOUNTS IN THE HIGHWAY TRUST FUND
UNDER H.R. 4348, MAP-21, AS POSTED ON THE WEB SITE OF THE HOUSE
COMMITTEE ON RULES ON JUNE 28, 2012
By Fiscal Year, in Billions of Dollars
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Highway Account
Start-of-Year Balance 14 8 4 4 c c c c c c c
Revenues and Interest 33 33 33 34 35 36 36 36 36 37 37
Intragovernmental Transfers 2 6 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Outlaysa,b 42 43 44 44 44 45 45 46 46 47 47
End-of-Year Balance 8 4 4 c c c c c c c c
Transit Account
Start-of-Year Balance 7 5 5 1 c c c c c c c
Revenues and Interest 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Intragovernmental Transfers 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Outlaysa,b 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 10 10
End-of-Year Balance 5 5 1 c c c c c c c c
Memorandum:
Cumulative Shortfallc
Highway Account Shortfall n.a. n.a. n.a. -6 -15 -24 -33 -42 -52 -62 -72
Transit Account Shortfall n.a. n.a. n.a. -3 -7 -12 -16 -20 -24 -29 -33
Notes: n.a. = not applicable.
Contract authority is a mandatory form of budget authority typically provided in authorization acts.
Obligation limitations are limitations on the obligation of contract authority typically provided in
appropriation acts.
a. After 2014, the estimated outlays assume obligations will continue at the 2014 level, adjusted for inflation. The
total outlays shown reflect prior and future obligations.
b. Outlays include amounts “flexed” or transferred between the highway and transit accounts. CBO estimates that
amount would total about $1 billion annually.
c. CBO projects that, under provisions of the Conference Report for H.R. 4348, the highway account and the transit
account of the Highway Trust Fund would be exhausted in fiscal year 2015. Under current law, the Highway Trust
Fund cannot incur negative balances. However, following rules in the Deficit Control Act of 1985, CBO’s baseline
for highway spending assumes that obligations presented to the Highway Trust Fund will be paid in full. The
memorandum to this table illustrates the cumulative shortfall of fund balances, assuming spending levels that would
be authorized by the Conference Report for H.R. 4348.
24. CBO
As required by law, baseline projections for
discretionary resources (like obligation limitations)
reflect the assumption that amounts appropriated
in future years equal the amounts provided for the
current year, adjusted for inflation.
25. CBO
The Highway
Trust Fund:
Outlays
Outlays shown in
Table 2
+
Outlays from prior
transportation bills
+
Outlays from
obligation limitations
projected by CBO in
the baseline
TABLE 3. SUMMARY OF CASH FLOWS FOR ACCOUNTS IN THE HIGHWAY TRUST FUND
UNDER H.R. 4348, MAP-21, AS POSTED ON THE WEB SITE OF THE HOUSE
COMMITTEE ON RULES ON JUNE 28, 2012
By Fiscal Year, in Billions of Dollars
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Highway Account
Start-of-Year Balance 14 8 4 4 c c c c c c c
Revenues and Interest 33 33 33 34 35 36 36 36 36 37 37
Intragovernmental Transfers 2 6 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Outlaysa,b 42 43 44 44 44 45 45 46 46 47 47
End-of-Year Balance 8 4 4 c c c c c c c c
Transit Account
Start-of-Year Balance 7 5 5 1 c c c c c c c
Revenues and Interest 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Intragovernmental Transfers 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Outlaysa,b 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 10 10
End-of-Year Balance 5 5 1 c c c c c c c c
Memorandum:
Cumulative Shortfallc
Highway Account Shortfall n.a. n.a. n.a. -6 -15 -24 -33 -42 -52 -62 -72
Transit Account Shortfall n.a. n.a. n.a. -3 -7 -12 -16 -20 -24 -29 -33
Notes: n.a. = not applicable.
Contract authority is a mandatory form of budget authority typically provided in authorization acts.
Obligation limitations are limitations on the obligation of contract authority typically provided in
appropriation acts.
a. After 2014, the estimated outlays assume obligations will continue at the 2014 level, adjusted for inflation. The
total outlays shown reflect prior and future obligations.
b. Outlays include amounts “flexed” or transferred between the highway and transit accounts. CBO estimates that
amount would total about $1 billion annually.
c. CBO projects that, under provisions of the Conference Report for H.R. 4348, the highway account and the transit
account of the Highway Trust Fund would be exhausted in fiscal year 2015. Under current law, the Highway Trust
Fund cannot incur negative balances. However, following rules in the Deficit Control Act of 1985, CBO’s baseline
for highway spending assumes that obligations presented to the Highway Trust Fund will be paid in full. The
memorandum to this table illustrates the cumulative shortfall of fund balances, assuming spending levels that would
be authorized by the Conference Report for H.R. 4348.
26. CBO
The Highway
Trust Fund:
Revenues and
Interest
Table 3 shows
revenues credited to
the Highway Trust
Fund as a result of
MAP-21 extending
the excise taxes
dedicated to the
fund from 2013
through 2016.
TABLE 3. SUMMARY OF CASH FLOWS FOR ACCOUNTS IN THE HIGHWAY TRUST FUND
UNDER H.R. 4348, MAP-21, AS POSTED ON THE WEB SITE OF THE HOUSE
COMMITTEE ON RULES ON JUNE 28, 2012
By Fiscal Year, in Billions of Dollars
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Highway Account
Start-of-Year Balance 14 8 4 4 c c c c c c c
Revenues and Interest 33 33 33 34 35 36 36 36 36 37 37
Intragovernmental Transfers 2 6 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Outlaysa,b 42 43 44 44 44 45 45 46 46 47 47
End-of-Year Balance 8 4 4 c c c c c c c c
Transit Account
Start-of-Year Balance 7 5 5 1 c c c c c c c
Revenues and Interest 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Intragovernmental Transfers 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Outlaysa,b 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 10 10
End-of-Year Balance 5 5 1 c c c c c c c c
Memorandum:
Cumulative Shortfallc
Highway Account Shortfall n.a. n.a. n.a. -6 -15 -24 -33 -42 -52 -62 -72
Transit Account Shortfall n.a. n.a. n.a. -3 -7 -12 -16 -20 -24 -29 -33
Notes: n.a. = not applicable.
Contract authority is a mandatory form of budget authority typically provided in authorization acts.
Obligation limitations are limitations on the obligation of contract authority typically provided in
appropriation acts.
a. After 2014, the estimated outlays assume obligations will continue at the 2014 level, adjusted for inflation. The
total outlays shown reflect prior and future obligations.
b. Outlays include amounts “flexed” or transferred between the highway and transit accounts. CBO estimates that
amount would total about $1 billion annually.
c. CBO projects that, under provisions of the Conference Report for H.R. 4348, the highway account and the transit
account of the Highway Trust Fund would be exhausted in fiscal year 2015. Under current law, the Highway Trust
Fund cannot incur negative balances. However, following rules in the Deficit Control Act of 1985, CBO’s baseline
for highway spending assumes that obligations presented to the Highway Trust Fund will be paid in full. The
memorandum to this table illustrates the cumulative shortfall of fund balances, assuming spending levels that would
be authorized by the Conference Report for H.R. 4348.
27. CBO
The Highway
Trust Fund:
Revenues and
Interest
The further extension
of excise taxes
credited to the
Highway Trust Fund
from 2017 through
2022 would be
assumed in the
baseline.
TABLE 3. SUMMARY OF CASH FLOWS FOR ACCOUNTS IN THE HIGHWAY TRUST FUND
UNDER H.R. 4348, MAP-21, AS POSTED ON THE WEB SITE OF THE HOUSE
COMMITTEE ON RULES ON JUNE 28, 2012
By Fiscal Year, in Billions of Dollars
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Highway Account
Start-of-Year Balance 14 8 4 4 c c c c c c c
Revenues and Interest 33 33 33 34 35 36 36 36 36 37 37
Intragovernmental Transfers 2 6 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Outlaysa,b 42 43 44 44 44 45 45 46 46 47 47
End-of-Year Balance 8 4 4 c c c c c c c c
Transit Account
Start-of-Year Balance 7 5 5 1 c c c c c c c
Revenues and Interest 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Intragovernmental Transfers 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Outlaysa,b 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 10 10
End-of-Year Balance 5 5 1 c c c c c c c c
Memorandum:
Cumulative Shortfallc
Highway Account Shortfall n.a. n.a. n.a. -6 -15 -24 -33 -42 -52 -62 -72
Transit Account Shortfall n.a. n.a. n.a. -3 -7 -12 -16 -20 -24 -29 -33
Notes: n.a. = not applicable.
Contract authority is a mandatory form of budget authority typically provided in authorization acts.
Obligation limitations are limitations on the obligation of contract authority typically provided in
appropriation acts.
a. After 2014, the estimated outlays assume obligations will continue at the 2014 level, adjusted for inflation. The
total outlays shown reflect prior and future obligations.
b. Outlays include amounts “flexed” or transferred between the highway and transit accounts. CBO estimates that
amount would total about $1 billion annually.
c. CBO projects that, under provisions of the Conference Report for H.R. 4348, the highway account and the transit
account of the Highway Trust Fund would be exhausted in fiscal year 2015. Under current law, the Highway Trust
Fund cannot incur negative balances. However, following rules in the Deficit Control Act of 1985, CBO’s baseline
for highway spending assumes that obligations presented to the Highway Trust Fund will be paid in full. The
memorandum to this table illustrates the cumulative shortfall of fund balances, assuming spending levels that would
be authorized by the Conference Report for H.R. 4348.
28. CBO
The Highway Trust
Fund cannot incur
negative balances
and has no authority
to borrow additional
funds. The cumulative
shortfall is shown in
the memorandum.
The Highway
Trust Fund:
Cumulative
Shortfall
TABLE 3. SUMMARY OF CASH FLOWS FOR ACCOUNTS IN THE HIGHWAY TRUST FUND
UNDER H.R. 4348, MAP-21, AS POSTED ON THE WEB SITE OF THE HOUSE
COMMITTEE ON RULES ON JUNE 28, 2012
By Fiscal Year, in Billions of Dollars
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Highway Account
Start-of-Year Balance 14 8 4 4 c c c c c c c
Revenues and Interest 33 33 33 34 35 36 36 36 36 37 37
Intragovermental Transfers 2 6 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Outlaysa,b 42 43 44 44 44 45 45 46 46 47 47
End-of-Year Balance 8 4 4 c c c c c c c c
Transit Account
Start-of-Year Balance 7 5 5 1 c c c c c c c
Revenues and Interest 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Intragovernmental Transfers 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Outlaysa,b 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 10 10
End-of-Year Balance 5 5 1 c c c c c c c c
Memorandum:
Cumulative Shortfallc
Highway Account Shortfall n.a. n.a. n.a. -6 -15 -24 -33 -42 -52 -62 -72
Transit Account Shortfall n.a. n.a. n.a. -3 -7 -12 -16 -20 -24 -29 -33
Notes: n.a. = not applicable.
Contract authority is a mandatory form of budget authority typically provided in authorization acts.
Obligation limitations are limitations on the obligation of contract authority typically provided in
appropriation acts.
a. After 2014, the estimated outlays assume obligations will continue at the 2014 level, adjusted for inflation. The
total outlays shown reflect prior and future obligations.
b. Outlays include amounts “flexed” or transferred between the highway and transit accounts. CBO estimates that
amount would total about $1 billion annually.
c. CBO projects that, under provisions of the Conference Report for H.R. 4348, the highway account and the transit
account of the Highway Trust Fund would be exhausted in fiscal year 2015. Under current law, the Highway Trust
Fund cannot incur negative balances. However, following rules in the Deficit Control Act of 1985, CBO’s baseline
for highway spending assumes that obligations presented to the Highway Trust Fund will be paid in full. The
memorandum to this table illustrates the cumulative shortfall of fund balances, assuming spending levels that would
be authorized by the Conference Report for H.R. 4348.
29. CBO
Net Cash Flows (Cost) to the Treasury
The combination of
spending subject to
appropriation shown in
Table 2 ($96 billion) plus
spending from permanent
authority ($4 billion). . . .
. . . and the revenues
credited to the fund
(through 2016) shown in
Table 3 ($155 billion) . . .
. . . probably best reflect
the net effect ($55 billion)
of the transportation
provisions of the bill
through 2017.
(Billions of dollars, by fiscal year)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2013-
2017
Total Effect on the Deficit
From Table 2:
Spending From Obligation Limitations
and Other Authorized Transportation
Programs Contained in the Bill 13 33 29 13 8 96
From CBO’s Baseline:
Spending Derived From Permanent
Authority 1 1 1 1 1 4
From Table 3:
Estimated Revenues From Extending
Excise Taxes Credited to the Highway
Trust Fund Through 2016 a 38 38 39 40 0 155
Revenues minus spending 24 4 10 26 -8 55
Note: Components may not add up to totals because of rounding.
a. Extending excise taxes credited to the Highway Trust Fund would reduce the tax base of
income and payroll taxes, leading to reductions in income and payroll tax revenues. The
estimates shown here do not reflect those reductions.
(This table does not appear in the original cost estimate.)
30. CBO
Net Cash Flows (Cost) to the Treasury:
Four Years of Revenues and Two Years of Spending
The estimated gain in revenues ($155 billion), through
2017, exceeds the increase in outlays ($100 billion)
because the taxes would be extended for four years
by MAP-21 but the spending would be set for only
two years. In addition, some of the spending from
those obligation limitations would occur after 2017.
31. CBO
Note
Any increase in the taxes credited to the Highway Trust Fund
would result in a corresponding decrease in general fund
revenues of about 25 percent of the higher trust fund
revenues. (See Joint Committee on Taxation, New Income and
Payroll Tax Offsets to Changes in Excise Tax Revenues for
2014–2024 (February 2014), http://go.usa.gov/85Zk.)
32. CBO
About This Document
This slide deck supplements CBO’s report The Highway
Trust Fund and the Treatment of Surface Transportation
Programs in the Federal Budget (June 2014),
www.cbo.gov/publication/45416.
Sarah Puro prepared this slide deck with production
assistance from Jeanine Rees. Jonathan Schwabish,
formerly of CBO, also provided helpful assistance.
Sarah Puro prepared the cost estimate, released on
June 29, 2012. It is available on CBO’s website at
www.cbo.gov/publication/43368.