Shahidur Rashid, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI Presented at the ReSAKSS-Asia conference “Agriculture and Rural Transformation in Asia: Past Experiences and Future Opportunities”. An international conference jointly organized by ReSAKSS-Asia, IFPRI, TDRI, and TVSEP project of Leibniz Universit Hannover with support from USAID and Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) at the Dusit Thani Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand December 12–14, 2017.

1. PREPARED FOR RESAKSS-ASIA CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURE AND RURAL
TRANSFORMATION IN ASIA
DECEMBER 12-13, 2017 | DUSIT THANI HOTEL, BANGKOK, THAILAND
Aquaculture Growth in Bangladesh
Enablers, Impacts, and the Path Ahead
Shahidur Rashid
Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI

2. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Talking points
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• The Context
• Sector highlights
• Key Messages
• Future scenarios

3. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
The Context
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1. Policy Context: Links to Food and Ag Policy debates:
Structural Adjustments Program and Green Revolution in
1980s
 The main premise of the structural adjustment program was that
if policy restrictions (distortion to economic incentives) are
eliminated, economy will grow, which will in turn lead to higher
income, lower poverty, and overall improvement in food security.
 Green Revolution took roots: real prices of rice and wheat were
declining, rural income was growing, and the region was enjoying
overall prosperity.
 A strong strand of research surfaced at around the same time,
arguing that income growth doesn’t lead to improvement in
nutrition. This research was at odds with the very premise of the
structural adjustments
(E.G., Pitt, 1983, Behrman and Deolalikar, 1987, 1990, Bouis and
Haddad, 1992)

4. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
The Context (2)
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2. Bangladesh context:
• Fish is the second largest items in households’
budgets in Bangladesh
• Bengalis derive over 60% of animal source protein
from fish
Consider the following quotes:
“…although inflation-adjusted price of cereals in Bangladesh have
declined by 40% over the past 25 years (a remarkable success), real
price of lentils, vegetables, and animal products have increased by
25-50%. Real fish prices have more than doubled. The dietary quality
of the poor may be declining due to these price effects…”

5. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Sector Highlights: Sub-sectoral trends
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1983-93 1994-03 2004-13
Produciionin000tons
Sub-sectoral growth, 1983-2013
Marine Inland Capture Inland Culture
1. Three sub-sectors:
Inland Capture, Inland
Culture (aquaculture),
Marine
2. Aquaculture production
has increased from only
about 100 thousand tons
in 1983/84 to over 2
million tons in 2015!
3. From being smallest
subsector, aquaculture
now accounts for more
than 50% of country’s
total fish production

6. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Sector Highlights: Prices and Consumption
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1. Fish prices were
rising rapidly in the
through late 1990s.
2. But there has been a
reversal in the price
trends (except Hilsha,
a marine fish)!
3. Per capita annual fish
consumption has
increased from just
about 7kgs in 1990 to
23kgs in 2016.

7. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Focus of this research
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There are many questions underlying these
phenomenal growth. We focused on the following
aspects:
1. Enablers / drivers of growth
2. The impacts of the growth
3. Opportunities and challenges

8. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Key messages
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A. The enablers of growth:
1. Largely private sector driven with limited government
supports (or interventions)
o No national policies until 1998
o No regulations on inputs until 2010/11
2. Non-shrimp aquaculture growth is led by domestic
market demand
o Over ninety percent of non-shrimp aquaculture is consumed
domestically.
o Share of non-shrimp aquaculture in export is very small
(less than 1% of the production).

9. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Key messages (2)
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A. The enablers of growth:
3. There have been transformation in the value
chain through:
o Growth, intensification, and specialization
o Disintermediation and reduction in
transactions costs
o Innovation in marketing (markets are moving
to the farm)

10. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Key messages (3)
Page 10
B. Impacts of growth:
1. Benefitted across income groups, geographic
locations, and gender.
2. Large impacts on income and poverty reduction
o Aquaculture growth accounted for 1.74% reduction in
headcount poverty between 2000 and 2010
o The reduction due to aquaculture (1.7%) is about 10%
of the overall reduction in poverty in the country
(17.4%) during the same period.

11. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Impacts (income)
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12. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Impacts (poverty)
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13. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Key messages (4)
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C. Future scenarios:
1. Both prices and consumptions are expected to
grow in the medium term (until 2030)
2. If investment in aquaculture increases, total
production can increase by as much as 120%
between 2015 and 2030.
3. In a high productivity (~6%) scenario, which is
achievable, total production will increase by
152%, equivalent to total production of 7 million
tons

14. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Opportunities and Challenges
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Paths ahead have both opportunities and
challenges:
 Opportunities: High potential for growth.
 Current productivity is low relative to other countries.
For example, shrimp yield in Bangladesh is less than
0.8 tons / ha, which compares with 3 tons / in Vietnam
and Thailand. Striped catfish (pangasius) is yield is 60-
70 tons (under intensive), which can go over 200 tons /
ha
 There are also potentials for growth in marine
aquaculture
 Challenges: Domestic demand, which has been the
main trigger, is going to saturate. Where will be the
demand sinks?

15. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Opportunities and Challenges
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Challenges: Negative externalities (unintended
consequences)
 Knowledge (and strategies) about negative
externalities are limited:
 Habitat degradation, environmental consequences, is
limited.
 Food safety and human health
 Missing institutions:
 It is a risky business and there is no effective institutions
(insurance and credit) to protect farmers against them
 Very limited capacity to conduct market intelligence and
risk management analysis

16. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Thank you
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