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Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Climate Science Appendix
Ap – GWP20
Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Climate Science Appendix
Ap – GWP20
Comparing Two IPCC Standards for Properties of CH4
20 year Global Warming Potential – GWP20
100 year Global Warming Potential – GWP100
Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Comparing GWP100 to GWP20
This IPCC chart depicts the total global anthropogenic GHG emissions over the
past 40 years, expressed in C02 and CO2 equivalent gigatons/year. Note that for
methane, the chart uses a 100 year time frame for CO2 equivalence.
Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
This chart appears as Figure SPM.1 in the IPCC’s 2014 climate change mitigation
report.
(IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working
Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-
Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J.
Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United
Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.)
The caption for SPM.1 explains the formula used to compute the CO2e for
methane each year is based on the 100 year time frame established by the IPCC in
its 1996 report:
“…Emissions are converted into CO2-equivalents based on GWP100 from
the IPCC Second Assessment Report…”
The 1996 report used GWP100 = 21. As concern over a near-term climate tipping
point has increased in recent years, researchers have shifted from the 100 year
time horizon to a 20 year time horizon which captures the greater near term threat
of methane. Over a 20 year time frame, the methane GWP20 = 84.
Comparing GWP100 to GWP20
Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
The standard values for methane Global Warming Potential (GWP) are
increasing as solar-chemical properties of CH4 in the atmosphere become
better known.
At 100 years after release, the GWP100 of CH4 is 28, meaning that as CH4
slowly decomposes into CO2, it is 28x better than CO2 in capturing heat. The
IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR) in 2013 set the standards for methane GWP20 and GWP100.
Comparing GWP100 to GWP20
Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
For the 20 years after release to the environment, methane retains
heat 84x better than CO2, compared to methane after 100 years at
28x. Since we don’t have all century to deal with climate damage,
countering GWP20 is crucial.
Comparing GWP100 to GWP20
Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
.
Using the GWP20 standard, CH4 matches CO2
Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Comparing GWP100 to GWP20
• Modifying the IPCC chart to reflect the current
GWP20 standard has the effect of scaling up
methane’s GWP contribution by a factor of 4.
• Note that visually, methane is now a much more
significant factor in climate change.
• It may be necessary to adjust GHG Inventory
reports using this factor, if CH4 is being released
faster than its 12.5 year half-life decline. This
factor reduces carbon budget margin.

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Ap -gwp20

  • 1. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017 Climate Science Appendix Ap – GWP20
  • 2. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017 Climate Science Appendix Ap – GWP20 Comparing Two IPCC Standards for Properties of CH4 20 year Global Warming Potential – GWP20 100 year Global Warming Potential – GWP100
  • 3. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017 Comparing GWP100 to GWP20 This IPCC chart depicts the total global anthropogenic GHG emissions over the past 40 years, expressed in C02 and CO2 equivalent gigatons/year. Note that for methane, the chart uses a 100 year time frame for CO2 equivalence.
  • 4. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017 This chart appears as Figure SPM.1 in the IPCC’s 2014 climate change mitigation report. (IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs- Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.) The caption for SPM.1 explains the formula used to compute the CO2e for methane each year is based on the 100 year time frame established by the IPCC in its 1996 report: “…Emissions are converted into CO2-equivalents based on GWP100 from the IPCC Second Assessment Report…” The 1996 report used GWP100 = 21. As concern over a near-term climate tipping point has increased in recent years, researchers have shifted from the 100 year time horizon to a 20 year time horizon which captures the greater near term threat of methane. Over a 20 year time frame, the methane GWP20 = 84. Comparing GWP100 to GWP20
  • 5. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017 The standard values for methane Global Warming Potential (GWP) are increasing as solar-chemical properties of CH4 in the atmosphere become better known. At 100 years after release, the GWP100 of CH4 is 28, meaning that as CH4 slowly decomposes into CO2, it is 28x better than CO2 in capturing heat. The IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR) in 2013 set the standards for methane GWP20 and GWP100. Comparing GWP100 to GWP20
  • 6. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017 For the 20 years after release to the environment, methane retains heat 84x better than CO2, compared to methane after 100 years at 28x. Since we don’t have all century to deal with climate damage, countering GWP20 is crucial. Comparing GWP100 to GWP20
  • 7. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017 . Using the GWP20 standard, CH4 matches CO2
  • 8. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017 Comparing GWP100 to GWP20 • Modifying the IPCC chart to reflect the current GWP20 standard has the effect of scaling up methane’s GWP contribution by a factor of 4. • Note that visually, methane is now a much more significant factor in climate change. • It may be necessary to adjust GHG Inventory reports using this factor, if CH4 is being released faster than its 12.5 year half-life decline. This factor reduces carbon budget margin.