The document discusses the risks of climate change from increasing levels of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane. It shows mathematical models of the temperature effects of pulses of CO2 and CH4 over different timeframes. It argues that cutting research funding and UN participation means direct action is needed to address existential climate risks from these gases, as there are still many unknowns. The document also references a book on the economic consequences of climate change and uncertainties in predicting impacts.

1. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Climate Science Appendix
Ap – Math Plots

2. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
What the math tells us
What we don’t know is astounding
If we can’t convert unknowns in time to forestall known
existential risks, then immediate action must be
mandated.
Cutting research funding, UN support/participation
means direct action must be engaged
Here is what we CAN show:
• Temperature effects from one pulse of CO2
• Temperature effects from one pulse of CH4
• Temperature effects of CO2 past 2050
• Temperature effects of CH4 past 2050

3. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Doing the math
The GWP stuff – Behavior of one pulse of CO2 ( GWP = 1)

4. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Doing the math
The GWP stuff – Behavior of one pulse of CH4 using GWP0 = 125

5. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Doing the math
The GWP stuff – 34 years of CO2, then coast at 2050

6. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Doing the math
The GWP stuff – 34 years of CH4, then coast at 2050

7. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
We can’t know the future
What we don’t know is astounding
If we can’t convert unknowns in time to forestall known
existential risks, then immediate action must be
mandated.
We are being forced by the existence of fossil fuels
to struggle with a dire and unpredictable future
We can cut the risk
• Its easier to eliminate the problem than to struggle
with it at great risk for who knows how long
Accumulation of economic risk as forced by future
unknowns is explored by Wagner and Weitzman in
Climate Shock

8. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Climate Shock © 2015
The Economic Consequences
of a Hotter Planet
Wagner and Weitzman
CO2
IPCC Human Causation
1995 - Not unlikely
2001 – Likely
2007 – Very likely
2013 – Extremely likely
2015 – Virtually certain
Identify Root Cause
of GHG
Amount of GHG
Emitted
Measured GHG
Concentration
Global Temp
Climate Damage
Impact on
Habitability
Society’s Coping
Effectiveness of
Response
Arc of Truth: Carbon Overuse
Coffin
Corner
CO2e
Start at
280ppm
Serious
Unknown
Climate
Sensitivity
- Unknown
700ppm =2016
CO2 at 400ppm
CO2e > 1900ppb
Start at
790ppb
6 deg C [10%]
2 deg C
Serious
Unknown
Serious
Unknown
Serious
Unknown
No reflection
Acidification
Methane release
Sea Level
Food collapse
Refugees
Conflict
Disease
Extinctions
False profits
Surprises
Trees do not absorb CO2e
Personal mortality risk
Car accident, lifetime 1%
Heart disease 0.2%
Why not cut root causes ?
[10% - p55]
Solar
Source
[compounding uncertainties p57]
[knowns and unknowns p56]
[insured risks p55]
[cascade of uncertainties p12]