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Do we really need CCUS?
Glen Peters (CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Norway)
Clean Air Task Force, Third Way (remote, 4/12/2020)
Anatomy of a scenario
Baseline: A world with no or little climate policy
Mitigation (Paris): We want to get to a world 1.5C or <2C, which means net-zeros emissions around 2050-2100
Source: Own calculations based on the IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer
Anatomy of a scenario
Mitigation: Reduce emissions by technical and behavioural change (e.g., renewables, electric cars, efficiency)
Source: Own calculations based on the IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer
Anatomy of a scenario
Fossil CCS: Perhaps we continue to use coal in industry or gas in electricity, but apply CCS to avoid emissions
Source: Own calculations based on the IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer
Anatomy of a scenario
Non-CO2: Emissions in agriculture might be hard to avoid, such as paddy rice or meat consumption
Source: Own calculations based on the IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer
Anatomy of a scenario
Land-use change: Large emissions from deforestation, but this needs to go to zero and preferably afforestation
Source: Own calculations based on the IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer
Anatomy of a scenario
Carbon Dioxide Removal: We can’t get everything to zero, so we physically remove CO2 from the atmosphere
(BECCS: Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage)
Source: Own calculations based on the IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer
Anatomy of a scenario
We now have now successfully kept global warming to 1.5C (we got to net-zero GHGs around 2060)
Source: Own calculations based on the IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer
Anatomy of a scenario
How does CCS fit in?
Conventional mitigation Fossil with
CCUS
Removal involving
CCUS
Removal using other
techniques
There are many ways to 1.5C, even more ways to <2C, many pathways to 2.5C, and so on.
They all differ, but they all have the same general characteristics (less fossils, more non-fossil, some removals)
Source: Own calculations based on the IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer
There are many alternative pathways
An average CCS facility is about 1MtCO2/yr. Building 1 per day will give 11GtCO2/yr in 2050!
Unlikely we can deploy CCS at these rates. This is just what a cost-optimising models shows!
Source: Own calculations based on the IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer
Nearly all pathways require a lot of CCS
• Scenarios (generally) assume rationale behaviour, cost
optimisation over 100 years, discounting, “overshoot”, etc.
– They use a lot of carbon capture and storage
– Can argue scenarios use too much CCS
• But we will need some level of CCS (several GtCO2/yr)
– Mitigation: CCS may be cheapest (eg in industry)
– Removal: Offset hard-to-mitigate sectors & agriculture
– Overshoot: Reduce temperature (maybe)
• The question is not ‘if’, but ‘how much’ CCS do we need?
Do we *need* CCS?
Source: Sognnæs & Peters (2020)
We probably need more CCS than we can feasibly deploy!
A future for CCS? Yes…
Peters_Glen
cicero.oslo.no
cicerosenterforklimaforskning
glen.peters@cicero.oslo.no
Glen Peters

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Do we really need Carbon Capture & Storage?

  • 1. Do we really need CCUS? Glen Peters (CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Norway) Clean Air Task Force, Third Way (remote, 4/12/2020)
  • 2. Anatomy of a scenario
  • 3. Baseline: A world with no or little climate policy Mitigation (Paris): We want to get to a world 1.5C or <2C, which means net-zeros emissions around 2050-2100 Source: Own calculations based on the IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer Anatomy of a scenario
  • 4. Mitigation: Reduce emissions by technical and behavioural change (e.g., renewables, electric cars, efficiency) Source: Own calculations based on the IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer Anatomy of a scenario
  • 5. Fossil CCS: Perhaps we continue to use coal in industry or gas in electricity, but apply CCS to avoid emissions Source: Own calculations based on the IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer Anatomy of a scenario
  • 6. Non-CO2: Emissions in agriculture might be hard to avoid, such as paddy rice or meat consumption Source: Own calculations based on the IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer Anatomy of a scenario
  • 7. Land-use change: Large emissions from deforestation, but this needs to go to zero and preferably afforestation Source: Own calculations based on the IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer Anatomy of a scenario
  • 8. Carbon Dioxide Removal: We can’t get everything to zero, so we physically remove CO2 from the atmosphere (BECCS: Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage) Source: Own calculations based on the IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer Anatomy of a scenario
  • 9. We now have now successfully kept global warming to 1.5C (we got to net-zero GHGs around 2060) Source: Own calculations based on the IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer Anatomy of a scenario
  • 10. How does CCS fit in? Conventional mitigation Fossil with CCUS Removal involving CCUS Removal using other techniques
  • 11. There are many ways to 1.5C, even more ways to <2C, many pathways to 2.5C, and so on. They all differ, but they all have the same general characteristics (less fossils, more non-fossil, some removals) Source: Own calculations based on the IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer There are many alternative pathways
  • 12. An average CCS facility is about 1MtCO2/yr. Building 1 per day will give 11GtCO2/yr in 2050! Unlikely we can deploy CCS at these rates. This is just what a cost-optimising models shows! Source: Own calculations based on the IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer Nearly all pathways require a lot of CCS
  • 13. • Scenarios (generally) assume rationale behaviour, cost optimisation over 100 years, discounting, “overshoot”, etc. – They use a lot of carbon capture and storage – Can argue scenarios use too much CCS • But we will need some level of CCS (several GtCO2/yr) – Mitigation: CCS may be cheapest (eg in industry) – Removal: Offset hard-to-mitigate sectors & agriculture – Overshoot: Reduce temperature (maybe) • The question is not ‘if’, but ‘how much’ CCS do we need? Do we *need* CCS? Source: Sognnæs & Peters (2020)
  • 14. We probably need more CCS than we can feasibly deploy! A future for CCS? Yes…