Key Findings of the IPCC WG1 Fifth Assessment ReportKatestone
Presentation given by Dr Julie Arblaster Senior Research Scientist at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Lead Author of the ‘Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility‘ chapter of Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Julie presented the findings and likely trends suggested by the future climate projections of her work.
The document discusses observations of climate change from global and regional perspectives, noting that human activities have influenced the climate through increasing greenhouse gas emissions. It then summarizes trends in global temperature rise and changes in precipitation patterns, as well as projections for further temperature increases and impacts on tropical cyclones and monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia specifically. Adaptation and mitigation strategies are needed to address the physical and non-physical impacts of climate change.
THEME – 1 Anticipated dryland expansion in scenarios of global warmingICARDA
The document summarizes projections of dryland expansion under scenarios of global warming based on analysis of climate model simulations. It finds that precipitation is expected to decrease in many subtropical regions due to warming-induced increases in potential evapotranspiration outpacing any increases in precipitation. This would result in expansion of arid and semi-arid lands in regions like North Africa, the Mediterranean, western US and southern Africa. The confidence in projections is higher for drying trends than wetting trends in some regions.
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC WG1 Report. It finds that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, with atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. It also concludes that human influence has been the dominant cause of warming since the mid-20th century. To limit global warming to 2°C, substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are required urgently, as over half the carbon budget is already used. Regional projections for Southeast Asia show increased temperatures and precipitation changes under climate change scenarios.
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. It finds that human influence has extremely likely caused warming since 1950, and that continued emissions will cause further warming and climate changes. Impacts are already occurring on all continents and oceans, affecting both ecosystems and human societies. While ambitious mitigation action is still possible and affordable to limit further warming to 2°C, delaying action will substantially increase challenges of meeting that goal. A combination of adaptation and substantial emissions reductions can limit climate change risks.
Present vs. Future Climate: What Science tells Us?ipcc-media
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report. It discusses the establishment of the IPCC to provide independent scientific assessments of climate change. It outlines the unequivocal warming of the climate system due to human influence and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Projections indicate further warming and changes to the climate system, as well as impacts that are already occurring. Limiting warming to 2°C would require substantial emissions reductions, but delaying mitigation will increase challenges. Ambitious mitigation is needed and affordable. The choices made will determine different climate outcomes.
The document summarizes the Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on mitigation of climate change. It describes the extensive work that went into the report, including 235 authors, over 800 reviewers, and close to 10,000 references. The report found that greenhouse gas emissions have grown significantly in recent decades despite reduction efforts. Effective mitigation will require substantial technological and economic changes across all sectors on a global scale, as well as significant international cooperation.
Key Findings of the IPCC WG1 Fifth Assessment ReportKatestone
Presentation given by Dr Julie Arblaster Senior Research Scientist at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Lead Author of the ‘Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility‘ chapter of Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Julie presented the findings and likely trends suggested by the future climate projections of her work.
The document discusses observations of climate change from global and regional perspectives, noting that human activities have influenced the climate through increasing greenhouse gas emissions. It then summarizes trends in global temperature rise and changes in precipitation patterns, as well as projections for further temperature increases and impacts on tropical cyclones and monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia specifically. Adaptation and mitigation strategies are needed to address the physical and non-physical impacts of climate change.
THEME – 1 Anticipated dryland expansion in scenarios of global warmingICARDA
The document summarizes projections of dryland expansion under scenarios of global warming based on analysis of climate model simulations. It finds that precipitation is expected to decrease in many subtropical regions due to warming-induced increases in potential evapotranspiration outpacing any increases in precipitation. This would result in expansion of arid and semi-arid lands in regions like North Africa, the Mediterranean, western US and southern Africa. The confidence in projections is higher for drying trends than wetting trends in some regions.
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC WG1 Report. It finds that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, with atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. It also concludes that human influence has been the dominant cause of warming since the mid-20th century. To limit global warming to 2°C, substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are required urgently, as over half the carbon budget is already used. Regional projections for Southeast Asia show increased temperatures and precipitation changes under climate change scenarios.
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. It finds that human influence has extremely likely caused warming since 1950, and that continued emissions will cause further warming and climate changes. Impacts are already occurring on all continents and oceans, affecting both ecosystems and human societies. While ambitious mitigation action is still possible and affordable to limit further warming to 2°C, delaying action will substantially increase challenges of meeting that goal. A combination of adaptation and substantial emissions reductions can limit climate change risks.
Present vs. Future Climate: What Science tells Us?ipcc-media
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report. It discusses the establishment of the IPCC to provide independent scientific assessments of climate change. It outlines the unequivocal warming of the climate system due to human influence and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Projections indicate further warming and changes to the climate system, as well as impacts that are already occurring. Limiting warming to 2°C would require substantial emissions reductions, but delaying mitigation will increase challenges. Ambitious mitigation is needed and affordable. The choices made will determine different climate outcomes.
The document summarizes the Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on mitigation of climate change. It describes the extensive work that went into the report, including 235 authors, over 800 reviewers, and close to 10,000 references. The report found that greenhouse gas emissions have grown significantly in recent decades despite reduction efforts. Effective mitigation will require substantial technological and economic changes across all sectors on a global scale, as well as significant international cooperation.
This document summarizes key findings from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report on climate change. It states that warming of the climate is unequivocal based on observations across the atmosphere, ocean, and land. Human influence has been the dominant cause of observed warming since the mid-20th century. Continued greenhouse gas emissions will cause further warming and changes to all components of the climate system. Limiting future warming will require substantial reductions in emissions.
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). It finds that:
1) Human influence has been the dominant cause of warming since the mid-20th century.
2) Continued emissions will cause further warming and changes to the climate system like sea level rise.
3) Impacts of climate change are already occurring on all continents and oceans.
This powerpoint presentation is produced by IPCC Working Group I for outreach purposes. It is based on the figures and approved text from the Working Group I Summary for Policymakers with some additional information on the process. The IPCC Working Group I website www.climatechange2013.org provides comprehensive access to all products generated by Working Group I during the fifth assessment cycle of the IPCC.
The Caribbean 1.5 Project analyzed climate impacts in the Caribbean under scenarios of 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 2.5°C of global warming. They reported three interim headlines: 1) We don't have much time to limit warming to 1.5°C based on current emissions trajectories. 2) Reaching 1.5°C still won't stop further changes to regional climate like more extreme rainfall, heat waves, and dry spells. 3) Staying below 2.0°C or 2.5°C is significantly better for the Caribbean in terms of avoided climate impacts. The project involved over 45 scientists modeling climate and impacts in 7 sectors across 6 Caribbean nations.
WGI: The Physical Science Basis - Overview Presentation, Thomas Stockeripcc-media
1) Warming of the climate system is unequivocal according to observations and understanding from the IPCC.
2) The concentrations of CO2 have increased to unprecedented levels in at least the last 800,000 years.
3) Further warming is expected to increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems according to the IPCC.
Human influence on the climate is clear, and greenhouse gas emissions are causing the climate to change rapidly. Continued emissions will lead to further warming and risks to natural and human systems. To limit global warming to 2°C, which can reduce severe impacts, emissions must be substantially reduced through coordinated global action. Delay or failure to reduce emissions significantly will make it much harder to limit warming to 2°C and avoid its worst effects.
Climate Change effect in Thailand and ASEAN regionipcc-media
A changing climate leads to more extreme weather and climate events. This document discusses climate change projections for Thailand using downscaled global climate models. It summarizes observed temperature and rainfall trends from 1965-1989 to 1990-2006 and projects further increases in temperature and changes in rainfall patterns for Thailand through the 21st century depending on greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Time series, maps and bar charts are presented to illustrate observed trends and modeled projections at regional and local scales down to 200 meters.
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Climate Change and Impacts ipcc-media
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Climate Change and Impacts by Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC, International Safranbolu Climate Change Conference, Safranbolu, Turkey, 25 March 2015
Highlights of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Reportipcc-media
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. It finds that human influence has extremely likely been the dominant cause of warming since the mid-20th century. Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes like sea level rise. Impacts from climate change are already occurring and include threats to food and water security. Options exist to limit warming to 2°C through ambitious mitigation like improving energy efficiency and increasing renewable energy, but the window to take action is rapidly closing.
The document discusses global warming and its causes according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It notes that surface temperatures have risen over the past few decades, and the main cause is likely increased greenhouse gas emissions from human activity like burning fossil fuels. If greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the IPCC warns of increasingly severe impacts of climate change, such as rising sea levels, stronger extreme weather events, food and water shortages. However, the document also notes there is still some debate around how much human activity contributes to global warming.
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Mitigation of Climate Changeipcc-media
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Mitigation of Climate Change by Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC, International Safranbolu Climate Change Conference, Safranbolu, Turkey, 25 March 2015
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report. It finds that human activity, including emissions from energy production, agriculture and other sources, are extremely likely the dominant cause of global warming since the mid-20th century. Impacts from climate change are already occurring on every continent and risks include food and water shortages, increased poverty, and coastal flooding. Limiting global temperature rise to 2°C requires substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 along with adaptation measures, but the window for action is closing as over half of the carbon budget for staying below 2°C has already been used. Delaying mitigation will increase challenges and risks of impacts from climate change.
Climate Change: The physical science basisipcc-media
Human influence on the climate system is clear according to observations and scientific understanding. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, with each of the last three decades likely being the warmest in the last 1400 years in the Northern Hemisphere. Limiting climate change will require substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to keep global temperature increases below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels.
Key message on climate change: the physical science basisipcc-media
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC 2013/2014 report on climate change science:
1) Warming of the climate system is unequivocal and human influence is clear based on increased greenhouse gas emissions and energy stored in oceans and atmosphere.
2) If emissions continue at a high level, global temperature increases by the late 21st century will likely exceed 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels.
3) Limiting warming to 2°C will require substantial reductions in greenhouse emissions, as the remaining carbon budget for a 2°C target is shrinking due to ongoing emissions.
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. It finds that human activity is extremely likely the dominant cause of global warming since the mid-20th century. If greenhouse gas emissions continue, the report warns of consequences like more extreme weather, water shortages, displaced populations, and impacts on food production. However, the summary also finds that limiting global temperature rise to 2°C is possible with ambitious emissions reductions, though the window for action is closing rapidly.
The document summarizes key findings from the 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It discusses the IPCC's assessment of evidence that human activity is the dominant cause of observed warming since 1950. It also notes that future warming is projected to cause sea level rise, ocean acidification, and further changes to glaciers, Arctic sea ice, and oceans. While some adaptation is possible, there are limits, and increasing impacts pose growing challenges.
The document provides an overview of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It describes the IPCC's role in assessing scientific information on climate change and its impacts. It outlines the IPCC's structure, including its three working groups and task forces. It summarizes the IPCC's key reports over time that have informed international climate change agreements. The document also discusses the IPCC's role in the Paris Agreement and outlines its planned future reports.
This presentation created and addressed by Gonzalo Saenz de Miera in the intensive three day course from the BC3, Basque Centre for Climate Change and UPV/EHU (University of the Basque Country) on Climate Change in the Uda Ikastaroak Framework.
The objective of the BC3 Summer School is to offer an updated and multidisciplinary view of the ongoing trends in climate change research. The BC3 Summer School is organized in collaboration with the University of the Basque Country and is a high quality and excellent summer course gathering leading experts in the field and students from top universities and research centres worldwide.
The document provides an overview of a training module on climate change science. The module contains 5 sections that will enable participants to explain key concepts of climate change science, identify anthropogenic drivers of climate change, and analyze observed and projected climate trends and scenarios. It covers topics such as the greenhouse effect, factors influencing the climate, observed global warming, climate models and projections, and the impacts of climate change. The history of climate change science and its importance for policymaking are also discussed.
This document summarizes key findings from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report on climate change. It states that warming of the climate is unequivocal based on observations across the atmosphere, ocean, and land. Human influence has been the dominant cause of observed warming since the mid-20th century. Continued greenhouse gas emissions will cause further warming and changes to all components of the climate system. Limiting future warming will require substantial reductions in emissions.
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). It finds that:
1) Human influence has been the dominant cause of warming since the mid-20th century.
2) Continued emissions will cause further warming and changes to the climate system like sea level rise.
3) Impacts of climate change are already occurring on all continents and oceans.
This powerpoint presentation is produced by IPCC Working Group I for outreach purposes. It is based on the figures and approved text from the Working Group I Summary for Policymakers with some additional information on the process. The IPCC Working Group I website www.climatechange2013.org provides comprehensive access to all products generated by Working Group I during the fifth assessment cycle of the IPCC.
The Caribbean 1.5 Project analyzed climate impacts in the Caribbean under scenarios of 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 2.5°C of global warming. They reported three interim headlines: 1) We don't have much time to limit warming to 1.5°C based on current emissions trajectories. 2) Reaching 1.5°C still won't stop further changes to regional climate like more extreme rainfall, heat waves, and dry spells. 3) Staying below 2.0°C or 2.5°C is significantly better for the Caribbean in terms of avoided climate impacts. The project involved over 45 scientists modeling climate and impacts in 7 sectors across 6 Caribbean nations.
WGI: The Physical Science Basis - Overview Presentation, Thomas Stockeripcc-media
1) Warming of the climate system is unequivocal according to observations and understanding from the IPCC.
2) The concentrations of CO2 have increased to unprecedented levels in at least the last 800,000 years.
3) Further warming is expected to increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems according to the IPCC.
Human influence on the climate is clear, and greenhouse gas emissions are causing the climate to change rapidly. Continued emissions will lead to further warming and risks to natural and human systems. To limit global warming to 2°C, which can reduce severe impacts, emissions must be substantially reduced through coordinated global action. Delay or failure to reduce emissions significantly will make it much harder to limit warming to 2°C and avoid its worst effects.
Climate Change effect in Thailand and ASEAN regionipcc-media
A changing climate leads to more extreme weather and climate events. This document discusses climate change projections for Thailand using downscaled global climate models. It summarizes observed temperature and rainfall trends from 1965-1989 to 1990-2006 and projects further increases in temperature and changes in rainfall patterns for Thailand through the 21st century depending on greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Time series, maps and bar charts are presented to illustrate observed trends and modeled projections at regional and local scales down to 200 meters.
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Climate Change and Impacts ipcc-media
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Climate Change and Impacts by Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC, International Safranbolu Climate Change Conference, Safranbolu, Turkey, 25 March 2015
Highlights of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Reportipcc-media
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. It finds that human influence has extremely likely been the dominant cause of warming since the mid-20th century. Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes like sea level rise. Impacts from climate change are already occurring and include threats to food and water security. Options exist to limit warming to 2°C through ambitious mitigation like improving energy efficiency and increasing renewable energy, but the window to take action is rapidly closing.
The document discusses global warming and its causes according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It notes that surface temperatures have risen over the past few decades, and the main cause is likely increased greenhouse gas emissions from human activity like burning fossil fuels. If greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the IPCC warns of increasingly severe impacts of climate change, such as rising sea levels, stronger extreme weather events, food and water shortages. However, the document also notes there is still some debate around how much human activity contributes to global warming.
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Mitigation of Climate Changeipcc-media
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Mitigation of Climate Change by Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC, International Safranbolu Climate Change Conference, Safranbolu, Turkey, 25 March 2015
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report. It finds that human activity, including emissions from energy production, agriculture and other sources, are extremely likely the dominant cause of global warming since the mid-20th century. Impacts from climate change are already occurring on every continent and risks include food and water shortages, increased poverty, and coastal flooding. Limiting global temperature rise to 2°C requires substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 along with adaptation measures, but the window for action is closing as over half of the carbon budget for staying below 2°C has already been used. Delaying mitigation will increase challenges and risks of impacts from climate change.
Climate Change: The physical science basisipcc-media
Human influence on the climate system is clear according to observations and scientific understanding. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, with each of the last three decades likely being the warmest in the last 1400 years in the Northern Hemisphere. Limiting climate change will require substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to keep global temperature increases below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels.
Key message on climate change: the physical science basisipcc-media
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC 2013/2014 report on climate change science:
1) Warming of the climate system is unequivocal and human influence is clear based on increased greenhouse gas emissions and energy stored in oceans and atmosphere.
2) If emissions continue at a high level, global temperature increases by the late 21st century will likely exceed 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels.
3) Limiting warming to 2°C will require substantial reductions in greenhouse emissions, as the remaining carbon budget for a 2°C target is shrinking due to ongoing emissions.
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. It finds that human activity is extremely likely the dominant cause of global warming since the mid-20th century. If greenhouse gas emissions continue, the report warns of consequences like more extreme weather, water shortages, displaced populations, and impacts on food production. However, the summary also finds that limiting global temperature rise to 2°C is possible with ambitious emissions reductions, though the window for action is closing rapidly.
The document summarizes key findings from the 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It discusses the IPCC's assessment of evidence that human activity is the dominant cause of observed warming since 1950. It also notes that future warming is projected to cause sea level rise, ocean acidification, and further changes to glaciers, Arctic sea ice, and oceans. While some adaptation is possible, there are limits, and increasing impacts pose growing challenges.
The document provides an overview of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It describes the IPCC's role in assessing scientific information on climate change and its impacts. It outlines the IPCC's structure, including its three working groups and task forces. It summarizes the IPCC's key reports over time that have informed international climate change agreements. The document also discusses the IPCC's role in the Paris Agreement and outlines its planned future reports.
This presentation created and addressed by Gonzalo Saenz de Miera in the intensive three day course from the BC3, Basque Centre for Climate Change and UPV/EHU (University of the Basque Country) on Climate Change in the Uda Ikastaroak Framework.
The objective of the BC3 Summer School is to offer an updated and multidisciplinary view of the ongoing trends in climate change research. The BC3 Summer School is organized in collaboration with the University of the Basque Country and is a high quality and excellent summer course gathering leading experts in the field and students from top universities and research centres worldwide.
The document provides an overview of a training module on climate change science. The module contains 5 sections that will enable participants to explain key concepts of climate change science, identify anthropogenic drivers of climate change, and analyze observed and projected climate trends and scenarios. It covers topics such as the greenhouse effect, factors influencing the climate, observed global warming, climate models and projections, and the impacts of climate change. The history of climate change science and its importance for policymaking are also discussed.
Rapporto Global Gender Gap del World Economic ForumAgi
The Global Gender Gap Report 2016 measures gender-based gaps rather than levels of resources or opportunities across countries. It examines gaps in economic participation and opportunity, educational attainment, health and survival, and political empowerment based on outcome variables. The report introduces an updated methodology for measuring gender parity in estimated earned income.
The document provides draft conclusions for the European Council meeting on December 15, 2016. It addresses four main topics: migration, security, economic and social development, and external relations. On migration, it discusses strengthening cooperation with external partners to address illegal migration and root causes. On security, it emphasizes implementing EU strategies on counterterrorism, borders, and defense. It also calls for greater EU responsibility and resources for security. On economic issues, it supports single market and youth initiatives. Finally, it condemns violence in Syria and calls for accountability.
Leggi il dossier completo Global 500, edizione 2017 Agi
1. The document summarizes Brand Finance's methodology for valuing global brands in its annual Brand Finance Global 500 report.
2. Brand Finance values brands using a royalty relief approach, estimating future revenues attributable to the brand and calculating a royalty rate brand owners would pay to use the brand if they did not already own it.
3. Brand strength, sector royalty rates, forecasted revenues, and post-tax discounting are used to determine individual brand values.
The Physical Science Basis of Climate Changeipcc-media
The document summarizes key messages from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report regarding the physical science basis of climate change. It discusses how the climate has warmed by 0.85°C since 1850 due to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Glaciers and snow cover have declined and sea levels have risen due to this warming. Future projections estimate further increases in temperature, changes in precipitation patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events. The report emphasizes that without significant reductions in emissions, climate change impacts on issues like food/water security and human settlements will be severe and widespread.
The document summarizes key findings from the WMO's 18th annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin. It finds that globally averaged surface levels of CO2, CH4, and N2O reached new highs in 2021 according to observations from the WMO GAW network. CH4 levels saw exceptionally large increases in 2020 and 2021, though the specific causes are still under investigation. While reducing CH4 emissions is important, reducing CO2 emissions, which have longer-lasting effects, remains a priority. Attribution of changes in the CH4 growth rate is challenging due to overlapping sources and sinks.
The document provides an overview of images from a draft US climate change assessment report that discusses the science of climate change, including rising temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, effects in polar regions like declining sea ice and thawing permafrost, impacts on agriculture and food security from changing conditions and crop yields, and implications for public health. The images show projections of future climate conditions under different emissions scenarios and observed trends in key climate indicators like rising CO2 levels and global temperatures that can only be explained by human influence on the climate system.
Changes in Climate and Imminent Effects There is .docxsleeperharwell
Changes in Climate and Imminent Effects
There is evidence of global warming and climatic change seen in the history of time which has impaled many kinds of research and reports on climate change. Thus, there is a global scientific organization that is tasked with the assessment of emerging information on climate change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2015). This organization is known as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC). The group is the most dependable source of impartial facts on the subject of climate variation. Additionally, the IPCC is able to detail long-term and short-term effects of climate change inclusive of the specific regions to be affected. Thus, an insight into some environmental changes discussed by IPCC is sought and discussed below.
Temperature Changes
The temperature ranges are expected to change further in the future as projected the climate models. This is attributed to the effects of global warming that are progressively being witnessed. The key global changes that are related to temperature are as follows. First, by 2100 surges in average universal temperatures are probable to be ranging between 0.5°F to 8.6°F with an expected rise of a minimum of 2.7°F for all situations (Hawkins & Sutton, 2016). This excludes the one demonstrating the greenhouse gas emissions which is the most belligerent. Similarly, ground-level atmospheric temperatures are anticipated to remain to warm more promptly above land than water bodies. This thus shows that most areas are expected to see greater temperature rises than the total average.
A rise in Sea Level
Increase in temperatures leads to sea level rise by dissolving mountain glaciers and hoarfrost, intensifying ocean water and instigating parts of the Antarctic ice pieces and Greenland to dissolve or stream into the sea. Research anticipates worldwide sea level to increase by an additional 1 to 4 feet with an improbability range of 0.66 to 6.6 feet by the year 2100 (Mengel et al., 2016). The influence of thermal increase, frost caps, and trifling glaciers to the ocean level rise are comparatively well calculated. Thus, by the end of this century, 1.2 to 8 inches of sea level rise will be accounted for by vicissitudes in ice sheets that are currently being experienced.
Acidification of the Oceans
The continuous increase of emission of Carbon (IV) oxide will subsequently result to increase in ocean acidification. The global surface of the pH of the ocean is also projected to decrease at a rate of 0.14 and 0.35 over the 21st century (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2015). Ocean acidification therefore harmfully distresses many aquatic species, including corals, shellfish, planktons, and mollusks. As a result of the acidification, the disposal of calcium carbonate will drop which is a crucial component for the exoskeleton of marine organisms (Seijo & Villanueva , 2018). Further, the rates of coral calcification are proposed.
The Synthesis Report integrates the findings of the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report on climate change. It finds that human activities have unequivocally warmed the planet over 1 degree Celsius since pre-industrial times. Further warming is projected to intensify climate hazards substantially. To limit warming to 1.5C will require global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest and be reduced by 43% by 2030. Delaying action increases climate risks and costs. Ambitious climate policies in this critical decade can deliver many benefits for sustainable development while protecting people and natural systems.
- The global mean near-surface temperature for 2023 (through October) was the highest on record at 1.40°C above 1850-1900 levels, making 2023 virtually certain to be the warmest year.
- The past 9 years, 2015-2023, are the 9 warmest years on record. Monthly temperature records were broken for both land and ocean temperatures from April through September 2023.
- Greenhouse gas concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide reached new highs in 2022 and continued to rise in 2023, according to real-time monitoring data.
K The document provides an introduction to climate change, discussing how human activities are releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, changing the climate. Climate models predict global temperatures will rise 1.4-5.8°C by 2100, though impacts will continue for centuries. Effects include sea level rise, changes to weather patterns and ecosystems, and risks to human society and infrastructure. The international community is addressing this through the UN Climate Change Convention and its Kyoto Protocol, which aim to stabilize greenhouse gas levels and limit emissions.
RELEVANCE OF HFCs AND OTHER SLCF GASES AND MAIN INTERNATIONAL REGULATION POLICYPietro Pecchi
This document provides an analysis of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) and international climate regulation policies. It begins with background on concepts like global warming potential (GWP) and defines key terms used to measure the impact of greenhouse gases (GHGs) on climate change, such as greenhouse effect, lifetime, and radiative forcing. It then discusses specific SLCFs like tropospheric ozone, black carbon, methane, hydrofluorocarbons, and the differences between SLCFs and longer-lived gases like CO2. The document also analyzes the environmental and economic impacts of reducing SLCFs as well as policies aimed at doing so. It provides a detailed outlook on hydrofluorocarbons, including
The document provides an executive summary of trends in US greenhouse gas emissions from 1990-2015. It finds that total US emissions increased by 3.5% from 1990-2015, but decreased by 2.3% from 2014-2015, driven by decreases in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. CO2 emissions remain the largest contributor to total US emissions. Emissions are now 11.5% below 2005 levels. The summary follows UNFCCC guidelines for calculating and reporting greenhouse gas inventories.
A briefing from the Poznan Climate Change ConferenceLeonardo ENERGY
The document summarizes key discussions and outcomes from the Poznan Climate Change Conference (COP14) in January 2009. It provides background on climate science and the UNFCCC process. Discussions focused on negotiating a post-Kyoto agreement and increasing climate action by all countries. Progress was made on adaptation funding but not on emissions reductions commitments. Developing countries expressed frustration with the pace of negotiations. Al Gore called for bolder climate targets and linking emissions reductions to poverty reduction.
Climate is a major determinant of everything in nature, including human life. There have been changes in climate in the history of the planet and these have caused massive changes in the fauna and flora. The evidence is increasing that another change in climate is in process probably caused by the industrial activities of man, and that there will be changes in climate that will disrupt the status quo. The risks associated with this are huge ... and we are ill-prepared. The risk posed by climate change is huge.
The document discusses rising greenhouse gas emissions and their effects. It notes that greenhouse gases have increased since the pre-industrial era due to human activities like electricity generation, transportation, and industry. This has led to increased global temperatures and a rise in sea levels. While greenhouse gases are necessary in small amounts to regulate the planet's temperature, the large increases in recent times are causing problems like more extreme weather, rising sea levels, and effects on biodiversity. Mitigation efforts are needed to reduce emissions through behavioral changes, technological solutions, and carbon budgets.
The document summarizes changes between the IPCC's 5th and 6th Assessment Reports. The AR6 will include more regional projections and linkages between climate change and other issues like air quality, water cycles, and short-lived climate pollutants. It will also improve attribution of extreme events and integrate cross-cutting issues. The AR6 outline was presented with 12 chapters addressing topics like future climate projections, carbon cycles, ocean and sea level change, regional impacts, and a new regional atlas. Strengthening links between working groups and a focus on regional information will help decision-makers assess climate risks.
The document summarizes the key findings of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report from the Working Group I contribution on the physical science basis of climate change. It involved 259 authors from 39 countries, underwent extensive review by over 1000 experts, and assessed observed changes in the climate system, drivers of climate change, understanding of the climate system and projections for future climate change. The report found clear evidence that climate change poses a serious risk and is already affecting many natural and human systems across all continents and oceans.
1. The document discusses a presentation given by Fatima Driouech on climate science and the IPCC.
2. It provides definitions of key terms like weather, climate, and climate change. It also discusses observed changes in temperature, snow and ice, and sea level rise.
3. The presentation outlines future projections for increased temperatures, sea level rise, changes in precipitation patterns and more frequent/ intense extreme weather events from climate models.
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report's Working Group 1 contribution on the physical science basis of climate change. It involved 259 authors from 39 countries, who found clear evidence that climate change poses a serious risk and is caused by human activity such as greenhouse gas emissions. If emissions continue at high levels, global temperatures will likely rise more than 2°C by 2100 and warming effects like sea level rise will be irreversible for hundreds of years. Immediate emissions reductions are required to limit global warming.
IPCC from AR5 to AR6 - WGI Perspectives - by Panmao Zhai, Co-Chair of WGIipcc-media
This document summarizes the key changes from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) to the upcoming Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) on climate change. It notes that AR5 had 14 chapters and over 1,500 pages, but did not adequately cover regional projections or linkages to impacts. The proposed outline for AR6 features 12 chapters that place greater emphasis on regional climate change, short-lived climate pollutants, and connections across working groups. The goal is to provide more detailed and policy-relevant information to inform adaptation and mitigation efforts.
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Organizzazione meteorologica mondiale, il report 2015
1. WMO GREENHOUSE GAS
BULLETIN
No. 12 | 24 October 2016
The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere
Based on Global Observations through 2015
ISSN2078-0796
2015: Changes in greenhouse gases strongly
influenced by El Niño
In 2015, Earth experienced the start of a strong El
Niño event. El Niño events are natural fluctuations
of the climate system where unusually warm water
accumulates in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño
events are associated with abnormal weather patterns
such as strong storms in some places and droughts
or flooding in others. A typical El Niño event lasts
9 months to 2 years. This phenomenon is witnessed
roughly every 2–7 years, although such a significant
El Niño event had not occurred for the past 18 years.
The figure at left shows the multivariate El Niño/Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) index [1] that indicates the strength
of the El Niño events. The largest El Niño events since
1950 are shown. The 2015/2016 El Niño was one of the
eight strongest since 1950 and was associated with
16 consecutive months of record global temperatures [2].
With the exception of the years following the eruption of Mt
Pinatubo in 1991, there has been an increase in the growth
rates of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) following
El Niño events (figure at right). The plot is based on the
CO2 global growth rate as estimated from the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) global
in situ network [3] with data starting in 1960. The periods
with the seven largest El Niño events since 1960 are
highlighted in blue.
The CO2 growth rate calculated using observations from
the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme
is larger than the average of the last 10 years, despite
evidence that global anthropogenic emissions remained
essentially static between 2014 and 2015. According
to the most recent data, increased growth rates have
persisted far into 2016, consistent with the expected
lag between CO2 growth and the ENSO index. It is
predicted that because of this, 2016 will be the first
year in which CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory
remains above 400 ppm(1) all year, and hence for many
generations [4].
Despite the increasing emissions from fossil fuel energy,
ocean and land biosphere still take up about half of
the anthropogenic emissions [5]. There is, however,
potential that these sinks might become saturated,
which will increase the fraction of emitted CO2 that
stays in the atmosphere and thus may accelerate the
CO2 atmospheric growth rate. During El Niño events,
the uptake by land is usually decreased. As during the
previous significant El Niño of 1997/1998, the increase
in net emissions is likely due to increased drought
in tropical regions, leading to less carbon uptake by
vegetation and increased CO2 emissions from fires.
According to the Global Fire Emissions Database [6],
CO2 emissions in equatorial Asia were 0.34 PgC(2) in
2015 (average for the period 1997–2015 is 0.15 PgC).
Other potential feedback can be expected from changes
other than El Niño itself, but rather related to large-
scale sea-ice loss in the Arctic, the increase in inland
droughts due to warming [7], permafrost melting and
changes in the thermohaline ocean circulation of which
El Niño is in fact a minor modulator.
WEATHER CLIMATE WATER
–2
–1
0
1
2
3
4
Index
Multivariate ENSO index (MEI) (NOAA , 2016)
1957 1965 1972 1982 1986 1991 1997 2015
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0.5
0
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
CO2
growthrate(ppmperyear)
CO2
global growth rate (Source: NOAA , 2016)
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Pinatubo
2. Executive summary
The latest analysis of observations from the WMO Global
Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme shows that globally
averaged surface mole fractions(3) calculated from this in
situ network for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and
nitrous oxide (N2O) reached new highs in 2015, with CO2 at
400.0±0.1 ppm, CH4 at 1845±2 ppb(4) and N2O at 328.0±0.1 ppb.
These values constitute, respectively, 144%, 256% and 121%
of pre-industrial (before 1750) levels. It is predicted that
2016 will be the first year in which CO2 at the Mauna Loa
Observatory remains above 400 ppm all year, and hence
for many generations [4]. The increase of CO2 from 2014 to
2015 was larger than that observed from 2013 to 2014 and
that averaged over the past 10 years. The El Niño event
in 2015 contributed to the increased growth rate through
complex two-way interactions between climate change and
the carbon cycle. The increase of CH4 from 2014 to 2015 was
larger than that observed from 2013 to 2014 and that averaged
over the last decade. The increase of N2O from 2014 to 2015
was similar to that observed from 2013 to 2014 and greater
than the average growth rate over the past 10 years. The
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Annual Greenhouse Gas Index [8, 9] shows that from 1990
to 2015 radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases
(LLGHGs) increased by 37%, with CO2 accounting for about
80% of this increase.
Introduction
Since pre-industrial times (before 1750), atmospheric
abundances of LLGHGs have risen considerably due to
emissions related to human activity. Growing population,
intensified agricultural practices, increase in land use and
deforestation, industrialization and associated energy use
from fossil sources have all led to the increased growth rate
of LLGHG abundances in recent years.
It is extremely likely that these increases have led to the
global warming that the world is now experiencing [5]. It
is also likely that the Earth system will respond to climate
change with feedback, including changes in the magnitude
of natural fluxes of greenhouse gases. This feedback can
increase or decrease the atmospheric growth rate of these
Ground-based Aircraft Ship GHG comparison sites
a Assuming a pre-industrial mole fraction of 278 ppm for CO2,
722 ppb for CH4 and 270 ppb for N2O. Stations used for the
analyses numbered 125 for CO2, 123 for CH4 and 33 for N2O.
Figure 2. The GAW global net-
work for carbon dioxide in the
last decade. The network for
methane is similar.
Figure 1. Atmospheric radiative forcing, relative to 1750,
of LLGHGs and the 2015 update of the NOAA Annual
Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) [8, 9]
CO2 CH4 N2O
Global abundance in 2015
400.0±0.1
ppm
1845±2
ppb
328.0±0.1
ppb
2015 abundance relative
to year 1750a 144% 256% 121%
2014–2015 absolute
increase
2.3 ppm 11 ppb 1.0 ppb
2014–2015 relative
increase
0.58% 0.60% 0.31%
Mean annual absolute
increase during last
10 years
2.08
ppmyr–1
6.0
ppb yr–1
0.89
ppb yr–1
Table 1. Global annual surface mean abundances (2015)
and trends of key greenhouse gases from the WMO/GAW
global greenhouse gas monitoring network. Units are dry-
air mole fractions, and uncertainties are 68% confidence
limits [10]; the averaging method is described in [11].
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1.4
AGGI (2015) = 1.37
AnnualGreenhouseGasIndex(AGGI)
Radiativeforcing(Wm–2
)
CO2
CH4
N2
O CFC-12 CFC-11 15 minor
2
3. gases and thus accelerate or de-accelerate the rate of climate
change. The direction and magnitude of this feedback is
quite uncertain, but a number of very recent studies hint
at a strong influence of future climate change on drought,
resulting in weakening of the land sink, further amplifying
atmospheric growth of CO2; that business-as-usual emissions
will lead to stronger warming than previously thought; and
that melting of Antarctica might lead to twice the maximum
sea-level rise thought possible in the last Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, even when the action
agreed by the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at its
twenty-first session (COP 21) to limit global temperature
increase at 2 oC will be reached [12, 13, 14].
Only closely observing the atmosphere with long-term,
high-accuracy measurements such as those in the GAW in
situ programme, supplemented by satellite observations
and numeric modelling, will allow for an understanding of
how global atmospheric composition is changing. These
observations will also inform as to whether the reduced
emissions arising from the COP 21 agreement have the desired
effect on atmospheric LLGHG abundances, and whether
success will be achieved in reducing these abundances in the
long run. This information will guide political decisions on
whether even greater mitigation efforts are needed because
of the effects of the Earth system feedback mechanisms.
Overview of the GAW in situ network observations
for 2015
This twelfth WMO/GAW Annual GHG Bulletin reports
atmospheric abundances and rates of change of the most
important LLGHGs – carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous
oxide – and provides a summary of the contributions of the
other gases. These three, together with CFC-12 and CFC-11,
account for approximately 96%(5) [15] of radiative forcing
due to LLGHGs (Figure 1).
The WMO Global Atmosphere Watch Programme (http://
www.wmo.int/gaw) coordinates systematic observations
and analysis of LLGHGs and other trace species. Sites
where greenhouse gases are measured in the last decade
are shown in Figure 2. Measurement data are reported by
participating countries and archived and distributed by the
World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) at the
Japan Meteorological Agency.
The results reported here by WMO WDCGG for the global
average and growth rate are slightly different from the results
that NOAA reports for the same years [3] due to differences
in the stations used, differences in the averaging procedure
and the time period for which the numbers are representative.
WMO WDCGG follows the procedure described in WMO/
TD-No. 1473 [11].
Table 1 provides globally averaged atmospheric abundances
of the three major LLGHGs in 2015 and changes in their
abundances since 2014 and 1750. Data from mobile stations,
with the exception of NOAA sampling in the Pacific (blue
triangles in Figure 2), are not used for this global analysis.
The three LLGHGs shown in Table 1 are closely linked to
anthropogenic activities and they also interact strongly with
the biosphere and the oceans. Predicting the evolution of
the atmospheric content of LLGHGs requires quantitative
understanding of their many sources, sinks and chemical
transformations in the atmosphere. Observations from GAW
provide invaluable constraints on the budgets of these and
other LLGHGs, and they are used to support the improvement
of emission inventories and to evaluate satellite retrievals of
LLGHG column averages.
3
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
N2
Ogrowthrate(ppb/yr)
(b)
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
CH4
molefraction(ppb)
(a)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
(b)
CH4
growthrate(ppb/yr)
Year
0
1
2
3
4
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
CO2
growthrate(ppm/yr)
(b)
300
305
310
315
320
325
330
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
N2
Omolefraction(ppb)
(a)
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
(a)
CO2
molefraction(ppm)
Figure 3. Globally averaged CO2 mole
fraction (a) and its growth rate (b) from
1984 to 2015. Increases in successive
annual means are shown as columns
in (b).
Figure 4. Globally averaged CH4 mole
fraction (a) and its growth rate (b) from
1984 to 2015. Increases in successive
annual means are shown as columns
in (b).
Figure 5. Globally averaged N2O mole
fraction (a) and its growth rate (b) from
1984 to 2015. Increases in successive
annual means are shown as columns
in (b).
(Continued on page 6)
4. 4
THE INTEGRATED GLOBAL
GREENHOUSE GAS INFORMATION SYSTEM
In December 2015, the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change adopted the Paris Agreement, codifying
the idea of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The
NDCs vary by nation, geographical region and economic
ability. Regardless of the strategies and measures applied,
the ability to implement long-term policies and manage
them effectively will require consistent, reliable and timely
information on the magnitude of greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions and their trends over time.
In 2010, the atmospheric, carbon cycle and climate change
science communities produced a number of studies [16,
17, 18] on the potential for atmospheric GHG concentration
measurements and model analyses to independently
evaluate the accuracy of GHG emission inventories produced
according to the statistical methods outlined in the 2006
Guidelines of the IPCC Task Force on National Greenhouse
Gas Inventories (IPCC TFI) [19]. These reports concluded
that a full realization of this approach required additional
investment in research, increased density of well-calibrated
atmospheric GHG measurements and improved atmospheric
transport modelling and data assimilation capabilities.
In recognition of the progress that has been made on the
research, measurement and modelling front since 2010,
WMO has initiated the development of an Integrated Global
Greenhouse Gas Information System (IG3IS) [20]. WMO GAW
provides the standards for atmospheric measurements, and
IG3IS will establish, propagate and, over time, improve the
methodological standards for how atmospheric transport
inverse model analyses of atmospheric GHG concentration
measurements (“top-down”) can be combined with spatially
and temporally explicit socioeconomic emission inventory
data (“bottom-up”) to better inform and manage emission
reduction policies and measures.
The IG3IS will serve as an international coordinating
mechanism working with many WMO partners, such as the
United Nations Environment Programme, the International
Bureau of Weights and Measures and the Group on Earth
Observations. For the IG3IS initiative to succeed, it must
work hard to connect with customers and end users of its
information to understand their needs, earn their trust and
demonstrate the value of the information they will receive,
with the goal of increasingly effective emission-reduction
actions. Over time, the IG3IS framework must be capable of
promoting and accepting advancing technical capabilities
(for example, new satellite observations and sensors),
continually improving the quality of and confidence in such
information.
The implementation of IG3IS is now under way according
to a set of principles and three objective areas defined in
the Concept Paper [20]: (1) reduce uncertainty of national
emission inventory reporting to UNFCCC; (2) locate, quantify
and inform emitters of previously unknown emission
reduction opportunities; and (3) provide national and sub-
national entities with timely and quantified information
on the amounts, trends and attribution of their emissions
to support progress towards emission reduction goals.
Implementation of IG3IS is proceeding along two lines of
activity for each objective area: (1) the initiation of near-
term pilot projects that advance the capabilities of selected
methods and build confidence in the value of the information
with stakeholders; and (2) the preparation of systematic
plans for each objective area that will guide nations, states,
cities and private enterprises on the implementation of
these information systems. A growing number of successful
demonstrations for each objective area serve as the bedrock
for IG3IS implementation. The following selected examples
demonstrate the value of IG3IS.
Continuous methane measurements from four sites on the
Swiss Plateau and two additional sites were combined with
atmospheric transport simulations and an inverse modelling
framework in order to deduce the spatial distribution of
CH4 emissions in Switzerland and adjacent countries [21].
The best inverse estimate of total Swiss CH4 emissions
for the observation period March 2013 to February 2014 is
196±18 Gg yr–1.(6) This value is in close agreement with the
national total of 206±33 Gg yr–1 reported by Switzerland
to UNFCCC in 2015 for the years 2012 and 2013. The
combination of the bottom-up and top-down approaches
largely confirms the estimate of the reported emission
totals, with an uncertainty reduction on the reported value
from 16% to 9%.
The inversion system was not set up to optimize emissions by
category separately but to estimate the spatial distribution of
total emissions. However, information from the inversion on
the spatial distribution of the emissions provides qualitative
insights into the source categories that dominate in a given
region. A robust spatial pattern suggests increased emissions
estimated for north-eastern Switzerland (see illustration
at top of page 5). Possible candidates for these differences
are farming practices between this area and the rest of the
country, resulting in different per-head emissions from
livestock. Other potential anthropogenic and natural sources
may contribute to the unexpectedly high emissions from
this area. Further observations will be needed to verify
and better characterize this source. Both Switzerland and
the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
include top-down information as part of their National
Reports to UNFCCC [22].
Global atmospheric concentrations of methane are continuing
to grow, but the global growth rate’s variability and attribution
to both natural and anthropogenic sources are not well
understood. Past studies reporting divergent estimates of
methane emissions from the oil and gas supply chain have
5. 5
generated conflicting claims about the full greenhouse gas
footprint of this industry. Top-down estimates based on
large-scale atmospheric sampling often exceed bottom-up
estimates based on source-based emission inventories.
Work led by the Environmental Defense Fund and NOAA
[23] reconciles top-down and bottom-up methane emission
estimates in one of the major natural gas production basins in
the United States of America using replicable measurement
and data integration techniques. Based on the success
of these methods, IG3IS intends to prototype and refine
standard methods that can be propagated worldwide and
deliver greater confidence and accuracy in characterizing
methane emission sources from the oil and gas supply
chain. The capability to identify and quantify the small
proportion of high-emitting locations will guide oil and
gas system operators, as well as methane emissions from
waste management and agriculture, to new mitigation
opportunities.
The Lima–Paris Action Agenda of the Paris Agreement has
formalized a role for sub-national entities such as cities (large
urban source regions), which account for more than 70% of
fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Several studies have shown the
potential to better quantify the GHG emissions and trends
of cities with atmospheric measurement networks and high-
resolution inverse model analyses [24, 25]. The requirements
for atmospheric inversion are more demanding in the case
of fossil-fuel CO2 (FFCO2). However, there is evidence that
by combining inverse model analysis of a sufficiently dense
and well-distributed network of measurements with spatially
explicit prior knowledge of sources, urban emissions of FFCO2
can be better quantified [26] (see bottom illustration on this
page). While trends in total emissions of FFCO2 from cities
are valuable, city planners and managers will need sector-
specific information to guide them to emission reduction
opportunities. A recent study used an observation system
simulation experiment to demonstrate that denser networks
of lower-cost, medium-precision measurement sites (30 to
70 for Paris) can produce sector-specific, spatially explicit
information on urban emissions [27]. In emerging economies
that may have inadequate bottom-up statistical knowledge
of emissions from large urban source regions and from
natural landscapes, such atmospheric inversion approaches
can prove to be especially valuable sources of information.
The spatial distribution of the prior emission
inventory for Switzerland is shown in (a), posterior
emissions are shown in (b), and their absolute and
relative difference (posterior minus the prior) are
shown in (c) and (d), respectively. An irregular
inversion grid was used that exhibits high spatial
resolution close to the observation sites (marked
by X) and becomes coarser with distance from
these sites (source: taken from [21]).
Total flux estimates over a 30-day period, for the four 6-hour periods, for anthropogenic emissions (red), biogenic fluxes
(green) and the total (blue). The prior estimates are shown as open rectangles, while the posterior is shown as filled rectan-
gles. Uncertainty reduction is evident for the morning and afternoon time periods (source: taken from [25]).
Fluxes[MtCO2
month–1
]
0–6h 6–12h 12–18h 18–24h
6. The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) [8] in 2015
was 1.37, representing a 37% increase in total radiative forcing
(relative to 1750) by all LLGHGs since 1990 and a 1.3% increase
from 2014 to 2015 (Figure 1). The total radiative forcing by
all LLGHGs in 2015 corresponds to a CO2-equivalent mole
fraction of 485 ppm [9].
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
Carbon dioxide is the single most important anthropogenic
greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, contributing ~65%(5)
to radiative forcing by LLGHGs. It is responsible for ~81%
of the increase in radiative forcing over the past decade
and ~82% over the past five years. The pre-industrial level
of ~278 ppm represented a balance of fluxes between
the atmosphere, the oceans and the land biosphere.
Atmospheric CO2 reached 144% of the pre-industrial level
in 2015, primarily because of emissions from combustion
of fossil fuels and cement production (the sum of CO2
emissions was 9.8±0.5 PgC in 2014), deforestation and
other land-use change (0.9±0.5 PgC average for 2005–2014
[7]). The average increase in atmospheric CO2 from 2005
to 2014 corresponds to ~44% of the CO2 emitted by human
activity with the remaining ~56% removed by the oceans
and the terrestrial biosphere. The portion of CO2 emitted
by fossil fuel combustion that remains in the atmosphere
(airborne fraction) varies interannually due to the high natural
variability of CO2 sinks without a confirmed global trend.
The globally averaged CO2 mole fraction in 2015 was
400.0±0.1 ppm (Figure 3). The increase in annual means
from 2014 to 2015, 2.3 ppm, is larger than the increase from
2013 to 2014 and the average growth rate for the past decade
(~2.08 ppm yr–1). The higher growth rate in 2015 compared
with the previous years is due to increased natural emissions
of CO2 related to the most recent El Niño event.
Methane (CH4)
Methane contributes ~17%(5) to radiative forcing by
LLGHGs. Approximately 40% of methane is emitted into the
atmosphere by natural sources (e.g. wetlands and termites),
and about 60% comes from anthropogenic sources (e.g.
ruminants, rice agriculture, fossil fuel exploitation, landfills
and biomass burning). Atmospheric CH4 reached 256% of the
pre-industrial level (~722 ppb) due to increased emissions
from anthropogenic sources. Globally averaged CH4 mole
fraction calculated from in situ observations reached a new
high of 1845±2 ppb in 2015, an increase of 11 ppb with respect
to the previous year (Figure 4). The mean annual growth rate
of CH4 decreased from ~13 ppb yr–1 during the early 1980s
to near zero during 1999–2006. Since 2007, atmospheric
CH4 has been increasing again. Studies using GAW CH4
measurements indicate that increased CH4 emissions from
wetlands in the tropics and from anthropogenic sources at
mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere are likely causes.
Nitrous oxide (N2O)
Nitrous oxide contributes ~6%(5) to radiative forcing by
LLGHGs. It is the third most important individual contributor
to the combined forcing. It is emitted into the atmosphere
from both natural (about 60%) and anthropogenic sources
(approximately 40%), including oceans, soils, biomass
burning, fertilizer use and various industrial processes.
The globally averaged N2O mole fraction in 2015 reached
328.0±0.1 ppb, which is 1.0 ppb above the previous year
(Figure 5) and 121% of the pre-industrial level (270 ppb).
The annual increase from 2014 to 2015 is greater than the
mean growth rate over the past 10 years (0.89 ppb yr–1). The
likely causes are an increase in fertilizer use in agriculture
and increased release of N2O from soils due to an excess
of atmospheric nitrogen deposition related to air pollution.
Other greenhouse gases
Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) is a potent LLGHG. It is produced
by the chemical industry, mainly as an electrical insulator in
power distribution equipment. Its current mole fraction is
about twice the level observed in the mid-1990s (Figure 6 (a)).
The stratospheric ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs), together with minor halogenated gases, contribute
~12%(5) to radiative forcing by LLGHGs. While CFCs and most
halons are decreasing, some hydrochlorofluorocarbons
(HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which are also
potent greenhouse gases, are increasing at relatively rapid
rates, although they are still low in abundance (at ppt(7) levels).
6
0
5
10
15
20
25
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Molefraction(ppt)
Year
(a) SF6
and halocarbons
HCFC-141b
HCFC-142b
HFC-152a
SF6
Figure 6. Monthly mean mole fractions of sulphur hex-
afluoride (SF6) and the most important halocarbons: SF6
and lower mole fractions of halocarbons (a) and higher
ones of halocarbons (b). The numbers of stations used for
the analyses are as follows: SF6 (24), CFC-11 (23), CFC-12
(24), CFC-113 (23), CCl4 (21), CH3CCl3 (24), HCFC-141b (10),
HCFC-142b (14), HCFC-22 (14), HFC-134a (10), HFC-152a (9).
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Molefraction(ppt)
Year
(b) halocarbons CFC-12
CFC-11
HCFC-22
CH3
CCl3
CCl4
CFC-113 HFC-134a
7. This bulletin primarily addresses long-lived greenhouse
gases. Relatively short-lived tropospheric ozone has a
radiative forcing comparable to that of the halocarbons.
Many other pollutants, such as carbon monoxide, nitrogen
oxides and volatile organic compounds, although not
referred to as greenhouse gases, have small direct or
indirect effects on radiative forcing. Aerosols (suspended
particulate matter) are also short-lived substances that alter
the radiation budget. All gases mentioned herein, as well
as aerosols, are monitored by the GAW Programme, with
support from WMO Member countries and contributing
networks.
Acknowledgements and links
Fifty-one WMO member countries have contributed CO2
and other greenhouse gas data to the GAW WDCGG.
Approximately 46% of the measurement records submitted
to WDCGG are obtained at sites of the NOAA Earth System
Research Laboratory cooperative air-sampling network.
For other networks and stations, see GAW Report No. 206,
available at http://www.wmo.int/gaw [28]. The Advanced
Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) contributes
observations to this bulletin. Furthermore, the GAW
monitoring stations contributing data to this bulletin, shown
in Figure 2, are included in the list of contributors on the
WDCGG web page (http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/wdcgg/).
They are also described in the GAW Station Information
System, GAWSIS (https://gawsis.meteoswiss.ch) supported
by MeteoSwiss, Switzerland.
References
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7
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[27] Wu, L. et al., 2016: What would dense atmospheric
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Other Greenhouse Gases, and Related Measurement Techniques
(GGMT-2011). Wellington, New Zealand, 25–28 October 2011
(G. Brailsford, ed.). GAW Report No. 206. Geneva.
Contacts
World Meteorological Organization
Atmospheric Environment Research Division,
Research Department, Geneva
E-mail: gaw@wmo.int
Website: http://www.wmo.int/gaw
World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases
Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo
E-mail: wdcgg@met.kishou.go.jp
Website: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/wdcgg/
8
JN161640
The Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station (40.68°S,
144.69°E, 94 m a.s.l.) is a fully operational WMO GAW
global station. It sits atop the coastal cliff of the far
north-west corner of Tasmania, Australia. The prevail-
ing south-westerly winds have typically traversed over
long swathes of the Southern Ocean, having had mini-
mal or no contact with land or anthropogenic sources
for long time periods, providing an ideal location for
baseline sampling in the mid-latitudes of the southern
hemisphere. At other times, wind events from the north
(trajectories over the city of Melbourne), or from the
south-east (over rural agricultural land) allow for episodic
sampling under a range of circumstances. The station is
operated by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Australia,
guided by a science programme jointly managed by
BoM and the Australia Commonwealth Scientific and
Industrial Research Organization. Collaborative partners
include the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology
Organization and the University of Wollongong, as well
as several international institutions and measurement
programmes. Science programmes include particles
and multiphase atmospheric chemistry, spectral and
passive radiation, ozone/reactive gases, carbon dioxide
and its stable isotopes, non-CO2 greenhouse gases, air
archive and radon. Opened in 1976, the station celebrates
40 years of continuous observations and science excel-
lence in 2016.
The Kosetice Observatory (49.58°N, 15.08°E, 534 m a.s.l.) is
operated by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. It is
located in the sparsely-populated agricultural countryside
in the Bohemian-Moravian Highlands. The Observatory
was established in 1988 as a station specialized in monitor-
ing and research of environmental quality at the regional
level in Czechia. The station is focused on air quality (NOx,
O3, SO2, CH4, CO, VOCs, PAHs, precipitation chemistry),
selected aerosol and meteorological measurement, among
many others. The Observatory has performed continuous
observations of CH4 since 1996 with a gas chromatogra-
phy. The station is now part of the European Integrated
Carbon Observation System network and measures CO2
and CH4 with updated equipment.
(1) ppm = number of molecules of the gas per million (106) molecules
of dry air
(2) 1 PgC = 1 Petagram (1015 gram) of carbon
(3) Mole fraction is the preferred expression for abundance
(concentration) of a mixture of gases or fluids. In atmospheric
chemistry, it is used to express the concentration as the number
of moles of a compound per mole of dry air.
(4) ppb = number of molecules of the gas per billion (109) molecules
of dry air
(5) This percentage is calculated as the relative contribution of the
mentioned gas(es) to the increase in global radiative forcing
caused by all long-lived greenhouse gases since 1750.
(6) Gg = Gigagram (109 gram)
(7) ppt = number of molecules of the gas per trillion (1012) molecules
of dry air
Selected greenhouse gas observatories