Using a carbon budget that counts to limit. CO2, CH4, historical, best info from Oil Change International.

1. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Climate Science Appendix
Ap – Carbon Budget

2. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
The Global Carbon Budget
Bringing targets in line with current climate science:
Oregon’s approach to carbon accounting relies on out-of-date
GWP standards and are based on incomplete data.
The near term risks of methane driven climate change are
real and potentially catastrophic.
We start with a simple CO2 budget from the UN Emissions
Gap Report, because it is much better understood.
Then translate the basic UN data to our graphic
representation, using UN data from 2012.
Update it to 2015 relying on the Oil Change International
carbon budget found in The Sky’s Limit report.

3. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
The Global Carbon Budget
Then tackle Methane (CH4) because it's a big deal.
Our task force believes that the surprises are largely because
of a lack of understanding of Methane (CH4), i.e. Natural Gas,
so we then tackle that.
How to chase a kite? Hang on to the string:
Since the target doesn't stand still, it will be important to
adjust plans to deal with the changes.
1)Track Data,
2)Make Plans Follow Data,
3)Make Actions Follow Plans.
Our belief is that someone in Oregon must be responsible for
tracking the changing data, then adjusting plans to the data
and legislating to change behaviors in agreement with the
plans.

4. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
The 2014 UN Emissions Gap Report
Data points and thresholds are direct from
Executive Summary, p. xiv

5. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
The 2014 UN Emissions Gap Report

6. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
IPCC info on emissions (“Inventory”)
We look back to this chart for CO2 contributions in 2010 timeframe of 38 Gt

7. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
The 2014 UN Emissions Gap Report

8. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
The OCI carbon budget
.

9. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
The Oil Change International carbon budget
.
Oil Change International Board of Directors
Michael Brune, Executive Director, Sierra Club
Thomas Cavanagh, Executive Director, Bandaloop
John Durkalski, Partner, Butsavage & Durkalski, P.C.
D. Cole Frates, Co-Founder, Renewable Resources Group & EndOil
Leslie Harroun, Director, Partners for a New Economy
Jonathan G. Kaufman, Legal Advocacy Coordinator, EarthRights
International
Stephen Kretzmann, Executive Director, Oil Change International
Jennifer Krill, Executive Director, Earthworks
Jason Scott, Co-Managing Partner, Encourage Capital
Katherine Silverthorne, Director, Aristotle Project

10. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
The OCI carbon budget
.
The numbers on global warming are
even scarier than we thought.
BY
September 22, 2016
Illustration by Neil Webb
The future of humanity depends on math. And the numbers in a released Thursday are the
most ominous yet.
Those numbers spell out, in simple arithmetic, how much of the fossil fuel in the world’s
existing coal mines and oil wells we can burn if we want to prevent global warming from
cooking the planet. In other words, if our goal is to keep the Earth’s temperature from
rising more than two degrees Celsius—the upper limit identified by the nations of the world
—how much more new digging and drilling can we do?
Here’s the answer: zero.

11. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
The OCI carbon budget
p 11

12. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
The OCI carbon budget
.
p 5

13. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
The OCI carbon budget
.

14. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
The OCI carbon budget
.
p 12

15. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
The OCI carbon budget
.

16. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
The OCI carbon budget
.

17. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Conclusions at this point
If we used a % decline, the time to end would
increase by about 2X. With so few years left,
even with an extension, target is already a
challenge.
• To stop at 1.5 degree limit would be amazing
– i.e. 50% green by 2025, 100% green by 2035.
• To stop at 2 degrees limit seems possible with
serious effort
- i.e. 50% green by 2035, 100% green by 2055.

18. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Now let's try to try to fit CH4 back into picture.
Remember that a band of CO2e was reserved for CH4,
and that up to now, all calculations were done assuming
the CH4 picture was really just the original proportion of
the problem.
Note that there are lots of problems with that assumption,
and there is rarely much discussion of that.

19. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Note that CH4 estimates keep growing!!

20. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
The 2014 UN Emissions Gap Report

21. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Oregon's GWC point of view

22. And what more?

23. Methane Climate Task Force 16 Jan 2017
Conclusions at this point
Oregon's budget doesn't work, and needs serious attention.
We are over budget and the feedback isn't strong enough to cause
correction.
Even if we met the CO2 or CO2e budget w/o including fugitive methane,
we won't have controlled the problem.
We haven't recognized the urgency or seriousness of the early transition