The document discusses global carbon emissions and temperature increases based on data and modeling from previous studies. It shows that emissions and temperatures continue to increase under a base scenario but not under a solar energy scenario where carbon emissions are greatly reduced. It also discusses the relatively low price on carbon and the need to increase it to over 100 Euros per ton to incentivize shifting to electric vehicles. Finally, it estimates that transitioning to solar energy to meet future energy needs would require investments of around 1% of GDP per year for countries like the US, and would not require much land area.

1. HANDELSHØYSKOLEN BI
J Randers 1J Randers 1
HANDELSHØYSKOLEN BI
Should we use
regulation or the market
to solve the climate problem?
Jorgen Randers
Professor emeritus
Climate strategy
BI Norwegian Business SchoolI
Club of Rome
Berlin, 11. november 2016

2. HANDELSHØYSKOLEN BI
J Randers 2
Most GHG is CO2 from energy production
Source: IEA, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion.. Highlights

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J Randers 3
Global emissions of CO2 (in GtCO2 per year)
Source: Randers et al 2016, “ESCIMO”, Earth System Dynamics Journal,
doi:10.5194/esd-2016-13
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
ESCIMO Base
case
g161010 2052 - update 2016

4. HANDELSHØYSKOLEN BI
J Randers 4
Global temperature increase (in ̊C from1850)
Source: Randers et al 2016, “ESCIMO”, Earth System Dynamics Journal,
doi:10.5194/esd-2016-13
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
ESCIMO Base
case
g161010 2052 - update 2016

5. HANDELSHØYSKOLEN BI
J Randers 5
Source: Randers et al 2016, “ESCIMO”, Earth System Dynamics Journal,
doi:10.5194/esd-2016-13
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
ESCIMO Base
case
Solar scenario
g161010 2052 - update 2016
Global emissions of CO2 (in GtCO2 per year)

6. HANDELSHØYSKOLEN BI
J Randers 6
Source: Randers et al 2016, “ESCIMO”, Earth System Dynamics Journal,
doi:10.5194/esd-2016-13
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
ESCIMO Base
case
Solar scenario
g161010 2052 - update 2016
Global temperature increase (in ̊C from1850)

7. HANDELSHØYSKOLEN BI
J Randers 7
The carbon price has remained (too) low
Source: http://www.sightline.org/2014/07/02/four-carbon-pricing-pitfalls-to-avoid/
The carbon price must be
100 €/tCO2 in order for an
electric cars to be cheaper
than a fossil car

8. HANDELSHØYSKOLEN BI
J Randers 8
Something needs to be done
jorgen.randers@bi.no www.2052.info

9. HANDELSHØYSKOLEN BI
J Randers 9
Source: Randers et al 2016, Earth System Dynamics Journal, doi:10.5194/esd-2016-13
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
ESCIMO with 2016
CO2 emissions
History NOAA
°C
g161010 2052 - update 2016
Global temperature increase (in ̊C from1850)

10. HANDELSHØYSKOLEN BI
J Randers 10
Havet vil fortsette å stige
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
ESCIMO with 2016
CO2 emissions
History
ESCIMO Base run
m
g161010 2052 - update 2016
Hav-stigning fra 1850 (i meter)
Source: Randers et al 2016, “ESCIMO”, Earth System Dynamics Journal,
doi:10.5194/esd-2016-13

11. HANDELSHØYSKOLEN BI
J Randers 11
Nok å bruke 1 % av GDP på solstrøm
Source: The Economist, October 1st 2016, p 41
Det koster 2 $ pr Wel å installere solpanel.
1 W solpanel gir rundt 3.000 kWhel pr år.
Dermed vil 5 kWel pr person gi nok strøm til
å opprettholde en vestlig levestandard. Inklu-
sive all transport og kjøling/varming av bygg.
For USA blir behovet 5 kW/p * 300 Mp =
1.500 GW. For å produsere dette med sol
innen 2050 vil kreve 1.500 GW / 34 år =
44 GW/år. Det er bare seks ganger så mye
som installasjonen i 2015.
Investeringskostnaden blir 5 kW/p * 2 $/W = 10.000 $ pr person. Det er 500 $
pr person pr år (ved 5 % pr år i kapitalkost). Ca 1 % av USAs BNP pr hode.
Arealbehovet er 0,1 m2/W. Det vil si 50 m2 pr person, eller 15.000 km2 totalt.
Det er 120 kilometer ganger 120 kilometer. En liten flekk på prærien.