Shenggen Fan Urbanization, Nutrition, and Purchased Food - DFID Webinar July 5, 2018

1. Shenggen Fan, July 2018
Shenggen Fan | Director General
International Food Policy Research Institute
DFID Webinar | July 5, 2018
RESHAPING
FOOD SYSTEMS
IN A CHANGING
WORLD
Urbanization, Nutrition, and Purchased Food

2. Shenggen Fan, July 2018
Outline
Reshaping food systems is key to address these global
trends
Mega-trends are impacting global food systems
Despite progress, multiple burdens of malnutrition persist
AND planetary health is increasingly at risk

3. Shenggen Fan, July 2018
Source: FAO 2017
Prevalence and number of undernourished worldwide
Metabolic risk factors for diet-related NCDs globally (%)
Source: GNR 2017
Prevalence of adult obesity, 2016(%)
Source: WHO 2018
Source: UNICEF/WHO/WB 2018
Children under 5 affected by malnutrition, 2000-2017 (millions)
Despite progress, multiple burdens of malnutrition persist

4. Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Source: Campbell et al. 2017
Under BAU, agriculture will almost reach 2°C
target emission for all sectors in 2050 (~21 GtCO2eyr-1)
Agriculture is pushing planetary boundaries Climate mitigation requires dramatic transformation
Source: Bajželj et al. 2014
BAU
2° target
by 2050
2009 emissions
from agriculture
CT1 = Current yield trend
CT2 = Current yield trend & 50% food waste reduction
CT3 = Current yield trend & 50% food waste reduction &
Healthy diets
YG1 = Yield gap closure (sustainable intensification)
YG2 = Yield gap closure & 50% food waste reduction
YG3 = Yield gap closure & 50% food waste reduction &
Healthy diets
AND planetary heath is increasingly at risk

5. Shenggen Fan, July 2018
Mega-trends are impacting food systems
Rapid population
growth, and
urbanization
Technological
innovations
Conflict, hunger,
and famine
Emerging food
industry
Food safety concerns
& anti-microbial
resistance
Changing global
landscape

6. Shenggen Fan, July 2018
Threats to investments
Trade protectionism Knowledge & data flow restrictions
Tightening borders
Stalled farm policy reforms
Anti-multilateralism
1. The global landscape is changing

7. Shenggen Fan, July 2018
In 2017, conflict and insecurity was the main driver of
food insecurity in 18 countries, affecting 74 million people
Global Report on Food Crises: Main drivers of hunger in 2017
Source: FSIN 2018
Famine risk: largest food crises in 70 years
Source: FAO 2017
2. Conflict is driving hunger, and famine risk is
increasing
Source: FSIN 2018

8. Shenggen Fan, July 2018
Projected urban share of global population
Urban
68%
20502015
Urban
54%
Source: Ruel et al. 2017
• Nearly 90% of projected urban population increase is concentrated in Asia and Africa
• China, India, and Nigeria alone expected to add 900 million urban residents
• Burdens of malnutrition shifting from rural areas to urban areas
Source: OECD 2010
0
20
40
60
80
2009 2020 2030
North America Europe
Central and South America Asia Pacific
Share of global middle class, 2009-2030 (%)
Source: UN 2018
3. Rapid urbanization & middle class growth
continues…

9. Shenggen Fan, July 2018
3. ...AND changing diets are increasing pressure
on food systems
Projected changes in diet composition
(kcal/capita/day)
Source: Wiebe and Rosegrant 2015
Note: WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean;
MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
World East Asia Europe
Historical changes in diet composition
(kcal/capita/day)
North America South Asia Africa
Source: FAO 2018
Increase in consumption of animal products
and fats, oils, and sugar – especially in Asia

10. Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Source: Ruel, Garrett, and Yosef 2017
• Urban poor face challenges in access to high-
quality, diverse, safe, and affordable diets
• As incomes increase urban consumers more
likely to consume imbalanced diets that are
‒ Heavy on processed foods
‒ High in calories, saturated fats, refined sugars,
and salt
‒ Low in fiber
• Poor diets among urban residents resulting
from
‒ Availability and marketing of energy-rich,
nutrient-poor foods
‒ Changes in life styles and types of employment,
especially for women
Urban areas face unique challenges
Rural
Urban
Source: GLOPAN 2016
Percentage of value of food consumed from different categories,
Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Mozambique, Malawi, South Africa

11. Shenggen Fan, July 2018
Food industry is expanding, especially in
developing countries
• Increased consolidation and vertical coordination
• Modernization and expansion of food sector, particularly
at midstream stages
‒ Opportunities for job creation, diet diversification,
increased food safety
• Expansion of supermarkets changing nature of food
distribution
‒ By mid-2000s supermarkets controlled up to 50% of food
market in Southeast Asia and Central America
• ICTs and online distribution channels continue to change
market organization and access to food
Source: IFPRI 2018; Ruel, Garrett, and Yosef 2017
Global food and agribusiness in 2015
estimated to account for
• $5 trillion value
• 10% of global consumer spending
• 40% of employment
Sources: Goedde, Horii, and Sanghvi 2015
4. Food industry is also rapidly emerging

12. Shenggen Fan, July 2018
• Unsafe foods pose huge economic costs
‒ USA: Foodborne illnesses cost $14 - 152 bil./year
‒ China: $970 mil. in losses in 2014 from tainted meat
Source: Adapted from WHO 2015
5. Food safety concerns for nutrition, health
and livelihoods are rising
Projected extra healthcare expenditures
Anti-microbial resistance (AMR) is
becoming prominent, impacting human
health, productivity, and poverty
Sources: Word Bank 2017

13. Shenggen Fan, July 2018
6. Technologies are emerging in and beyond
agriculture
Source: Thottathil, Jayasekaran, and Othman 2016; Toumisto 2011
Automation and mechanization
• Increasing use of machines and
electronics in agriculture
• Implications on youth unemployment
– need to move jobs to post-harvest
service sector
Hydroponic, vertical or indoor
farming
• Estimated US$750 million in North
American private investment in
vertical farming (through Q3 2017)
• Economically viable and sustainable
Biotechnology
Source: Indoor Ag-Con 2016
• Gene sequencing
‒ Dramatic reduction in cost to ~US $1,121/genome
‒ Sequenced crop
genomes could
improve agriculture in
challenging climates
• ‘Cultured’ meat
‒ Production involves 78-96% lower GHG emissions,
99% lower land use, 82-96% lower water use
depending on conventional meat product compared

14. Shenggen Fan, July 2018
Reshaping food systems is key to address
global trends

15. Shenggen Fan, July 2018
Promote nutritious, sustainable, and healthy diets
• Tax nutrient-poor foods and subsidize nutrient-rich foods
‒ Divert funds to promote carbon neutral or low carbon food
production (e.g. Brazil’s carbon neutral beef)
• Taxing emissions-intensive foods (e.g. meat and dairy) could
avoid more than 100,000 deaths in 2020
Source: Tiffin and Arnoult 2010, WRI 2016, Springmann et al. 2016
Changes in prices and consumption by
food commodity (%)
Convert inefficient subsidies of unhealthy foods and
inputs to
• Support production of fruits, vegetables, and other nutrient-
rich foods
• Provide income support for vulnerable groups, including
smallholders, women, and youth
Prioritize policies for health and the environment
Environmental footprint of various foods

16. Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Source: Resnick 2017, Glatzel 2017, Fan and Graziano da Silva 2017
Strengthen rural-urban linkages
• Improve policy coordination between rural and urban areas
• Support efficient and inclusive rural-urban value chains
• Leverage towns and intermediate cities to facilitate socio-economic links
Promote effective governance mechanisms
• Integrate and coordinate relevant sectors
• Enhance monitoring and accountability with data
Improve governance in urban and rural areas
Support informal economy in urban areas
• Improve policies for effective oversight and safety without stifling commerce or access
– E.g. Zambia’s inclusive management boards of informal markets
• Provide training and education, especially for food safety standards
– E.g. Kenya’s Dairy Traders Association trains informal milk traders on basic
hygiene and quality testing

17. Shenggen Fan, July 2018
Invest in evidence-based techs for health and the environment
• Yield enhancing technologies (e.g. Precision agriculture)
‒ Microdosing in Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso saw millet yields increase by over 50% & better water
absorption (ICRISAT)
• Improved, climate-resilient varieties (e.g. C4 Rice)
‒ Increased rice yields by 50% and N-use efficiency by 30% (IRRI)
• Nutrition-driven and nutrition-sensitive technologies (e.g. Biofortification)
‒ More than 30 million people are consuming one or more of 12 biofortified crops globally (HarvestPlus)
Photos: HarvestPlus, WEF
Scale up new multiple-win technologies
• Foster an “innovative ecosystem” – enabling innovators to engage in iterative processes
• Encourage global networks for sharing ideas and learning across markets and
geographies
Use ICTs to link smallholders to urban consumers
• E-commerce connecting rural farmers with supply and demand information
(e.g. China’s G20 initiative)
Promote multiple-win technological innovations

18. Shenggen Fan, July 2018
Upcoming global learning event bringing
together decision makers, practitioners,
researchers, and other stakeholders
Cooperation and mutual learning will be key

19. Shenggen Fan, July 2018