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Global Food Policy Report 2018

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IFPRI's flagship report reviews the major food policy issues, developments, and decisions of 2017, and highlights challenges and opportunities for 2018 at the global and regional levels. This year's report looks at the impacts of greater global integration—including the movement of goods, investment, people, and knowledge—and the threat of current antiglobalization pressures. Drawing on recent research, IFPRI researchers and other distinguished food policy experts consider a range of timely topics:

■ How can the global food system deliver food security for all in the face of the radical changes taking place today?
■ What is the role of trade in improving food security, nutrition, and sustainability?
■ How can international investment best contribute to local food security and better food systems in developing countries?
■ Do voluntary and involuntary migration increase or decrease food security in source countries and host countries?
■ What opportunities does greater data availability open up for improving agriculture and food security?
■ How does reform of developed-country farm support policies affect global food security?
■ How can global governance structures better address problems of food security and nutrition?
■ What major trends and events affected food security and nutrition across the globe in 2017?

The 2018 Global Food Policy Report also presents data tables and visualizations for several key food policy indicators, including country-level data on hunger, agricultural spending and research investment, and projections for future agricultural production and consumption. In addition to illustrative figures, tables, and a timeline of food policy events in 2017, the report includes the results of a global opinion poll on globalization and the current state of food policy.

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Global Food Policy Report 2018

  1. 1. 2018 GFPR Overview GLOBAL FOOD SYSTEM UNDER RADICAL CHANGES InvestmentTrade Knowledge & data Migration Developed country policies Global institutions Food security
  2. 2.  Despite economic recovery, inequality is on the rise globally  Global hunger is increasing, driven by conflicts and climate change  Food production is strong and food prices are declining  Anti-globalism and the changing global landscape may create further uncertainties Food policy in 2017-2018 Progress, uncertainty & rising anti- globalism Source: Fan 2018
  3. 3.  Food is at the heart of poverty reduction and improvements in nutrition • Food systems also contribute to rising obesity, hunger, and environmental degradation  Radical changes are creating new challenges and opportunities for progress • e.g. Anti-globalism and emerging technologies  Addressing global trends will be critical to end hunger and malnutrition within environmental boundaries Food security under radical changes Global trends impacting food systems Source: Stordalen and Fan 2018
  4. 4. Food security under radical changes Key recommendations  Encourage an open, efficient, and fair trading system  Support rural development to break the vicious cycle of conflict, food insecurity, and migration  Invest more in research and innovation for food systems  Enhance evidence-based policy making  Promote cooperation and mutual learning  Leverage new opportunities in emerging technologies and knowledge-sharing Source: Stordalen and Fan 2018
  5. 5.  Open trade can contribute to • Food security • Improving nutrition through diversification of food baskets, producers, and suppliers • Reducing natural resource use and environmental impact  At the same time, real risks are associated with opening trade • Increases in inequality, negative impact on health, increases in energy use, environmental damage Trade Free flow of goods for food security and nutrition Source: Martin and Laborde 2018
  6. 6. Trade Contributing to sustainable food systems Source: Martin and Laborde 2018
  7. 7.  Support trade opening with active and strong institutions to guarantee cooperative behavior and coordination  Design policies to address challenges or externalities associated with trade • Address inequality and private volatility with safety nets and investment in human capital • Address environmental impacts with resource management policies • Address overnutrition with education and other policies targeting consumption Trade Key recommendations Source: Martin and Laborde 2018
  8. 8.  International investment is key to eliminating hunger • Creates jobs, develops rural infrastructure, connects smallholders to global markets, etc. • Benefits production, value chains, rural incomes, technology, and food safety and quality  Private agribusiness investments in Africa and Asia improved ability of local people to buy more food and more nutritious food  Governance and screening of investments are important Investment International investment and local food security Source: Zhan, Mirza, and Speller 2018
  9. 9. Investment Impact on food security Source: Zhan, Mirza, and Speller 2018
  10. 10.  Promote and facilitate investment in staple and cash crops in food insecure regions  Support public-private partnerships for agro-infrastructure to link farms to markets and attract investment  Improve access to digital technology from farmer to consumer to meet information needs for productive investments  Ensure responsible investing by • Implementing agricultural investment principles • Supporting government screening of investments through technical assistance Investment Key recommendations Source: Zhan, Mirza, and Speller 2018
  11. 11.  Politically motivated arguments for immigration restrictions are increasingly common, but not supported by evidence  Voluntary migration can improve food security for migrants and families • Increases incomes and reduces pressure on natural resources • But migration involves upfront costs that can exclude the poor  Despite concerns, refugee camps can stimulate incomes and entrepreneurship in local communities Migration Tightening borders and threats to food security Source: De Brauw and Ambler 2018
  12. 12. Migration Migration impacts households, especially in rural areas Source: De Brauw and Ambler 2018
  13. 13.  Improve seasonal migration mechanisms to help farmers find alternative work within countries during lean season  Reduce international migration costs at the source and support participation of the poor in legal migrant work programs  Develop innovative financial products to facilitate migration, especially for the poor  Intensify technology use and improve services before and during crises Migration Key recommendations Source: De Brauw and Ambler 2018
  14. 14.  Accessible data are critical for decision making, from the farm to the retail level of food systems  Open data increase both visibility and utility of research  Open data can push governments toward increased accountability and support evidence-based policy decisions  Data quality and ease of use are essential for successful open data use  Inequality in access to knowledge is increasing Knowledge and data Open access data for food and nutrition security Source: Yerramareddy and Babu 2018
  15. 15. Knowledge and data Progress toward open data Source: Yerramareddy and Babu 2018
  16. 16.  Increase the efficiency of knowledge transfers to prevent information loss and ensure uptake in the field  Make government “big data” public to drive high-quality analysis of food systems and better policy and decision making  Build open data initiatives to reduce inequality and address issues of data quality, use, storage, and dissemination  Empower citizen stakeholders to demand open data through capacity building and access to data tools Knowledge and data Key recommendations Source: Yerramareddy and Babu 2018
  17. 17.  Developed country farm support policies often lead to overproduction and lower prices globally  Developing countries may face increased malnutrition and food insecurity  OECD countries shifted toward less distortionary mechanisms, yet reforms stagnated and farm support levels remain high  Large emerging economies are increasing distortionary forms or farm support Developed country policies Domestic farm policy reform and global food security Source: Glauber 2018
  18. 18. Developed country policies Trends in OECD support programs Source: Glauber 2018
  19. 19.  Further reduce agricultural distortions in global markets • Allows developing-country producers to improve incomes • Reduces rural poverty and malnutrition  Avoid adopting agricultural subsidy policies, given how difficult it is to remove them  Pursue reforms of domestic farm support even in the absence of multicountry agreements, as these reforms have multiple benefits Developed country policies Key recommendations Source: Glauber 2018
  20. 20.  Policy and governance in food security and nutrition are increasingly complex  Inadequate responses to food crises reveal need for nations to strengthen global planning and coordination of policy  Global governance can provide and protect international public goods  Formal institutions, less formal networks, and food and agriculture corporations all have roles to play in governance of food security and nutrition Global institutions Governance reform for food, nutrition, and agriculture Source: Von Braun 2018
  21. 21. Global institutions Toward redesign of international governance Source: Von Braun 2018
  22. 22.  Conduct formal stakeholder consultations on global institutional architecture and governance of agriculture, food, and nutrition  Create institutional coordination capacity to match increased scope and global action required for the SDGs  Base redesign of governance on principles of legitimacy, accountability, effectiveness, and inventiveness • Design a Governing Platform for intergovernmental coordination, decision making, and funding • Establish an International Panel on Food, Nutrition, and Agriculture with members of global scientific community Source: Von Braun 2018 Global institutions Key recommendations
  23. 23. REGIONAL AND NATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS Africa • Famine and near-famine conditions in South Sudan, Nigeria, and Somalia • Inaugural Biennial Review of Malabo commitments East and Southeast Asia • Myanmar promoting climate-smart villages • Multi-country seed policy agreement signed for climate-resilient rice varieties Central Asia • Policy reforms in Uzbekistan to enhance access to machinery, fertilizer, and credit • Kazakhstan approved State Program for Agro-Industrial Development Latin America & Caribbean • Economic slowdown and sluggish recovery impacting poverty and undernourishment • Uncertainties due to policy changes regarding trade and migration in the US Middle East & North Africa • Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen face continuing conflict, impacting incomes and food security • Macroeconomic reforms combined with social protection schemes expanded in several countries South Asia • Heavy floods impacted rainy-season food supply • Bangladesh instituting nationwide electronic system to monitor public food grain stocks
  24. 24. Regional developments: Africa Call for sustaining growth and building resilience Source: Makombe, Collins, Ulimwengu and Badiane 2018  Climate shocks and conflicts severely threatened a number of countries • Famine or near-famine conditions in South Sudan, Nigeria, and Somalia • Poor rains in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia  Progress on Malabo commitments assessed in inaugural biennial review • Agricultural transformation score for 20 countries on track to achieve goal by 2025  Looking forward • Moderately higher economic growth • Building resilience to livelihoods and food systems urgently needed
  25. 25. Regional developments: Middle East and North Africa A tale of two MENAs (1) Source: Breisinger, Abdelaziz, and Khouri 2018  Food security and incomes continued to deteriorate, especially for countries in conflict  Well-managed globalization is critical for the region with high food import and mineral resource export dependency  Macroeconomic policy reforms expected to improve economic growth, employment, and food security • Expanding social protection schemes to protect the poor from short-term negative effects of reforms  Looking forward • Urgency in addressing the needs of people under conflict and post-conflict reconstruction • Well-designed policy changes in countries not affected by conflicts can help reap the benefits of globalization
  26. 26. Regional developments: Middle East and North Africa A tale of two MENAs (2) Source: Breisinger, Abdelaziz, and Khouri 2018
  27. 27. Regional developments: Central Asia Steps toward cooperation Source: Akramov, Ilyasov, and Park 2018  Economic recovery • Significant upturns in energy and metals prices • More favorable external economic conditions  Continued poverty reduction and food security driven by income from employment and remittances  Improving environment for regional cooperation from recent political changes  Looking forward • Favorable outlook for commodity exports, but continued challenges in financial sector
  28. 28. Regional developments: South Asia Food systems at a crossroads (1) Source: Kumar, Ahmed, Davies, and Joshi 2018  Despite rapid economic growth, progress is uneven across region and highly vulnerable to climate impact  Continued efforts to address poverty and malnutrition challenge • Bangladesh: Reforming public food distribution through electronic monitoring system and modern food storage facilities • India: Promoting agricultural growth through enhancing credit for farmers and creation of long-term and micro-irrigation funds  Looking forward • Challenges: climate variability, extreme weather events, and rising temperatures • Opportunities: global food value chains and robust economic prospects
  29. 29. Regional developments: South Asia Food systems at a crossroads (2) Source: Kumar, Ahmed, Davies, and Joshi 2018
  30. 30. Regional developments: East and Southeast Asia Progress continues, challenges grow (1) Source: Chen, Timmer, Dawe, and Wang 2018  Food insecurity and malnutrition remain a concern, despite strong economic growth • Serious hunger in Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Philippines, and Timor- Leste • Obesity rapidly increasing throughout region  Structural transformation to connect rural areas to economic growth • China: Rural revitalization, private investment in large-scale farming  Looking forward • Deeper regional and global integration as priority • Emphasis on enhancing infrastructure investments, upgrading agricultural value chains, agricultural R&D
  31. 31. Source: Chen, Timmer, Dawe, and Wang 2018 Regional developments: East and Southeast Asia Progress continues, challenges grow (2)
  32. 32. Regional developments: Latin America and the Caribbean Integration and growth advance Source: Díaz-Bonilla and Piñeiro 2018  Economic slowdown and sluggish recovery taking a toll on poverty and undernourishment  Active hurricane season impacted livelihoods, agriculture, and infrastructure  Uncertainties due to policy changes regarding trade, migration in the US  Outlook for 2018 • Economic recovery with the stabilization of key countries (e.g. Brazil) and stronger global growth • Prudent economic policies, democratic governance, and high-impact investment will be important
  33. 33. Food policy indicators Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators SPEEDASTI Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development GHI Global Hunger Index FPRCI Food Policy Research Capacity Indicators IMPACT International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade TFP Agricultural Total Factor Productivity
  34. 34. Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators Women’s role in agricultural sciences is growing, but gender gap persists
  35. 35. Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators Many African countries are overlooking research in favor of spending on other agricultural areas SPENDING IN AGRICULTURE & AGRICULTURAL RESESARCH IN AFRICA
  36. 36. Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development Trends in agricultural public expenditures and share of agricultural spending diverge across regions
  37. 37. Vast inequality is found within regions Global Hunger Index
  38. 38. Global Hunger Index Children’s undernutrition varies widely within countries
  39. 39. Research capacity is uneven within developing regions Food Policy Research Capacity Indicators Number of publications per researcher rising in Africa, but with wide variation
  40. 40. Agricultural Total Factor Productivity Sustained TFP growth in developing countries
  41. 41. Agricultural Total Factor Productivity China, Brazil, and India are the drivers of TFP growth
  42. 42. International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade Sources of growth are projected to vary for food and feed crops Increased investment can reduce hunger, despite setbacks due to climate change
  43. 43. Global integration of national food systems will be key to progress, but will require robust evidence, good governance, and strong commitment from the international community
  44. 44. For the Global Food Policy Report and more information, please visit: http://gfpr.ifpri.info/

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