This document summarizes a systematic literature review on the impacts of climate change on agriculture systems and food security. Some key findings include:
- Climate change negatively impacts agriculture productivity and food production, especially in tropical regions. It threatens food production stability and other aspects of the food system.
- Global climate change analyses need to be validated at local levels to account for spatial variability, potential adaptations, resources, and socioeconomics.
- The review examines how increased climate variability may lead to greater food insecurity in the future. It also discusses how farmers currently cope with climate variability and how they may need to adapt.
- The review recommends actions to help farmers in tropical and subtropical regions address climate variability and
Adverse Environment and Pest Management for Sustainable Plant ProductionRahulGupta2015
In the era of rapid industrialization, there is increasing global concerns pertaining to anthropogenic activities mediated massive enhancement in atmospheric greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, etc., thereby triggering global warming phenomenon. The global warming mediated climate change has been found to impose long-lasting detrimental impact on the environment. In contrast, adverse environment poses new unsightly challenges to agriculture sector like changes in precipitation pattern, temperature variations, pest infestation patterns and so on. Plant health management essentially contributes to socio-cultural sustainability, economic and environment sustainability as well as food security. The development of next-generation Integrated Pest Management programmes equipped with Artificial Intelligence, Bioinformatics and Biotechnology based tools would be a milestone for the protection of water, soil/land, wild species, environmental safety, improved plant productivity and profitability. This chapter provides an overview on the scientific approaches/strategies towards the prevention of climate change mediated impacts on agricultural plant/crop health and productivity with some notable eco-friendly pest management solutions. Overall, the better global treaties of coordination, cooperation and collaboration would lead to improved management of adverse environment and pests and plant/crop production can sustain the life on earth.
Canadian experiences in sustainability in agriculture and climate change Premier Publishers
Agriculture has changed dramatically, with food and fiber productivity soaring due to new technologies, specialization and government policies. These changes allowed fewer farmers with reduced labor demands to produce the majority of the food. It is in this context that the concept of “sustainable agriculture” has come into existence. The severity of climate change has motivated strong scientific inquiry within the past decade. These mysteries have largely to do with the unpredictability of climate change, which varies widely across the globe. Many scientists argue that climate impacts are best understood on a regional scale. Unfortunately, it is often difficult to assess regional impacts of climate change due to various reasons. The tools at the disposal of those interested in building up resilience to climate change are therefore often limited, but some degree of speculation can be achieved through research. This paper aims to: investigate the potential impacts of climate change on Canadian agriculture, and assess the possible effects of these changes on the prevalence of sustainable agriculture. The paper concludes that while few predictions have been made on the specific impacts of climate change on sustainable agriculture, possible scenarios can be speculated based on the multitude of climate change studies.
Running head FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 1 FOOD SECUR.docxjeanettehully
Running head: FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 1
FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 6
How To Achieve Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change
The state of food security in the world right now is wanting, and the rate at which the globe is experiencing climate change is inexplicable. According to a research carried out by the World Food Program and the World Health Organization, the number of chronically malnourished people in the world is estimated to have increased drastically in the year 2016 to 815 million from 777 million in 2015. However, over the last few years, progress has been made; the number of malnourished people in the year 2000 was approximately 900 million. Nevertheless, ensuring food security has become an issue in our communities due to the many changes experienced daily. Subsistence farmers, in particular, are experiencing a lot of constraints, such as unfavorable bio-physical conditions and limited arable land (Rasul et al., 2014). Furthermore, the consequent reduced agricultural production has affected food security and changed the overall vulnerability of many people around the world (Hussain et al., 2016). They have become more dependent on genetically modified foods which can be bad for their health at times. Now, there exist ways in which people can achieve food security in the face of climate change. According to a commission of agriculture formed in the year 2000 to investigate the issue of food security and climate change, several strategies and approaches can be put in place to improve on the food situation across the world. I believe these methods would best help achieve food security in the face of climate change.
The Commission suggested that world leaders should integrate sustainable agriculture and food security into national and global policies (Beddington et al., 2012). One way in which this can be done is for governments to make sustainable climate-friendly agriculture central to green growth. According to research, governments should support financial commitments for regional programs to improve food systems and agriculture. This strategy should include specific research on alternative agricultural practices and an enhanced capacity to speed up transitions between establishment phases and the study.
Similarly, governments should find a way to finance strategies that support viable agricultural production systems that are not prone to damage during weather changes. In other words, they can develop mitigation and adaptation strategies and implement agrarian programs. Also, governments can include researchers who can come up with ways in which agricultural sectors can benefit from sustainable farming practices. Global donors can also play a key role. They can identify finance mechanisms that can be used to sustain various systems and interventions that build on the enormous potential synergies between climate change and agriculture. In simple terms, when world leaders prioritize food security as a re ...
RUNNING Head: IMPACTS ON FOOD SYSTEMS. 1
IMPACTS ON FOOD SYSTEMS 8
Impacts of Food Systems.
Students Name.
Institutional Affiliation.
Impacts on food systems.
Introduction
Sustainability in food systems entails the provision of the food security and nutrition which are essential to maintain and promote the living condition of the people under the earth (Ericksen, Ingram, & Liverman, 2009). The food system is according to the four pillar that defines its implication in any society. These four pillars are stability, availability, utilization and access. According to Food and Agriculture Organization, food security refers to “all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”(Source, FAO SOFI 2011).
When four pillars are conjoined together with the sustainability and nutrition, a desirable food system foundation is therefore achieved. With such food programs, they will mainly lead in making a multiple SDS (Sustainable Development Goals). Because of these to monitor and provide a desirable food system in any country, a Global Food System Index is crucial in tracking and monitoring progress. In the ultimate of the global food system, we address the six important dimensions by the GFSI which traces their progression. These critical dimensions are social sustainability, health and nutrition consumptions, environmental productivity, climate and ecological sustainability and market dynamics (Shown in Figure 1).
Therefore the ideal goal of a food system tries to effectively dialogue challenges to ecological and human welfare transversely in all of its phases. The dimension arrives from the theories and concepts involving food systems which will inform and guide the relevant managerial personnel in their decisions after the consideration of the report on the available data’s provided in concern of the behaviors portrayed by the target group like tourists in any environment when food is involved for life sustenance.
Global economic growth in investments, trade, food and Market Dynamic
Food system synthesis propels the global financial increase in investment, trade and food prices — they makeup all that happens and is the boundaries of the market dynamic as stated to be one of the critical dimensions guiding the food systems and its synthesis. To have a desirable food system, we require to have: an interaction in food supply chains which functions with all fundamental priors in the whole food system and also a well-operating trade and market dynamics (McCarthy, Lipper, & Branca, 2011). Using good trade and market strategies we can regulate and reduce the adverse effects caused by the market astonishment and hence drastically.
Climate Resilient Agriculture an Approach to Reduce the Ill-Effect of Climate...UditDebangshi
Climate resilient agriculture (CRA) is a sustainable
approach for converting and reorienting agricultural systems to
support food security under the new realities of climate change
through different adaptation and mitigation mechanisms.
Agricultural systems are extremely vulnerable to climate change, given their sensitivity to variations in different threats like temperature, precipitation and incidence of natural events and disasters such as droughts and floods with this on an average the extreme weather patterns can impact farm incomes in the range of 15-18 %. Threats can be reduced by increasing the adaptive capacity of farmers as well as increasing resilience and resource use efficiency in agricultural production systems. CRA promotes synchronized actions by farmers, government, scientist, private sector, and policy-makers through three main action areas: (1) Building the capacity to identify the threats; (2) Curing the threats through adaptation and mitigation process (3) Sustain their adaptive mechanisms over a long time. The vulnerability of existing conditions of poverty, malnutrition and increasing populations puts intense pressure on finite natural resources, especially land, water and energy – all of which are integral to agricultural systems. In this context, it becomes imperative to adopt Climate-Resilient Agriculture (CRA) measures at cooperative scale to address the impending impact of climate change on agriculture.
Strategies for managing climate risk: a case study of smallholder farmers in ...Premier Publishers
This study analyses the factors affecting Ethiopian farmers’ choice of ex-ante adaptation and ex-post coping strategies for climate risk. We use multivariate probit models to explain the choice of various adaptation and coping strategies. We find that plot characteristics such as slope, depth, soil type and soil fertility, and farm size are important factors affecting the choice of adaptation strategy. These plot characteristics also significantly affect the choice of particular coping strategies such as selling livestock, reducing meals and borrowing. The results also show that plot management practices such as leaving crop residues, intercropping and use of non-recycled hybrid maize are associated with a reduced likelihood of choosing coping measures such as selling livestock. We advocate increased farmer education on improved farm management practices to reduce household vulnerability to climate change and variability.
Adverse Environment and Pest Management for Sustainable Plant ProductionRahulGupta2015
In the era of rapid industrialization, there is increasing global concerns pertaining to anthropogenic activities mediated massive enhancement in atmospheric greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, etc., thereby triggering global warming phenomenon. The global warming mediated climate change has been found to impose long-lasting detrimental impact on the environment. In contrast, adverse environment poses new unsightly challenges to agriculture sector like changes in precipitation pattern, temperature variations, pest infestation patterns and so on. Plant health management essentially contributes to socio-cultural sustainability, economic and environment sustainability as well as food security. The development of next-generation Integrated Pest Management programmes equipped with Artificial Intelligence, Bioinformatics and Biotechnology based tools would be a milestone for the protection of water, soil/land, wild species, environmental safety, improved plant productivity and profitability. This chapter provides an overview on the scientific approaches/strategies towards the prevention of climate change mediated impacts on agricultural plant/crop health and productivity with some notable eco-friendly pest management solutions. Overall, the better global treaties of coordination, cooperation and collaboration would lead to improved management of adverse environment and pests and plant/crop production can sustain the life on earth.
Canadian experiences in sustainability in agriculture and climate change Premier Publishers
Agriculture has changed dramatically, with food and fiber productivity soaring due to new technologies, specialization and government policies. These changes allowed fewer farmers with reduced labor demands to produce the majority of the food. It is in this context that the concept of “sustainable agriculture” has come into existence. The severity of climate change has motivated strong scientific inquiry within the past decade. These mysteries have largely to do with the unpredictability of climate change, which varies widely across the globe. Many scientists argue that climate impacts are best understood on a regional scale. Unfortunately, it is often difficult to assess regional impacts of climate change due to various reasons. The tools at the disposal of those interested in building up resilience to climate change are therefore often limited, but some degree of speculation can be achieved through research. This paper aims to: investigate the potential impacts of climate change on Canadian agriculture, and assess the possible effects of these changes on the prevalence of sustainable agriculture. The paper concludes that while few predictions have been made on the specific impacts of climate change on sustainable agriculture, possible scenarios can be speculated based on the multitude of climate change studies.
Running head FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 1 FOOD SECUR.docxjeanettehully
Running head: FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 1
FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 6
How To Achieve Food Security In The Face Of Climate Change
The state of food security in the world right now is wanting, and the rate at which the globe is experiencing climate change is inexplicable. According to a research carried out by the World Food Program and the World Health Organization, the number of chronically malnourished people in the world is estimated to have increased drastically in the year 2016 to 815 million from 777 million in 2015. However, over the last few years, progress has been made; the number of malnourished people in the year 2000 was approximately 900 million. Nevertheless, ensuring food security has become an issue in our communities due to the many changes experienced daily. Subsistence farmers, in particular, are experiencing a lot of constraints, such as unfavorable bio-physical conditions and limited arable land (Rasul et al., 2014). Furthermore, the consequent reduced agricultural production has affected food security and changed the overall vulnerability of many people around the world (Hussain et al., 2016). They have become more dependent on genetically modified foods which can be bad for their health at times. Now, there exist ways in which people can achieve food security in the face of climate change. According to a commission of agriculture formed in the year 2000 to investigate the issue of food security and climate change, several strategies and approaches can be put in place to improve on the food situation across the world. I believe these methods would best help achieve food security in the face of climate change.
The Commission suggested that world leaders should integrate sustainable agriculture and food security into national and global policies (Beddington et al., 2012). One way in which this can be done is for governments to make sustainable climate-friendly agriculture central to green growth. According to research, governments should support financial commitments for regional programs to improve food systems and agriculture. This strategy should include specific research on alternative agricultural practices and an enhanced capacity to speed up transitions between establishment phases and the study.
Similarly, governments should find a way to finance strategies that support viable agricultural production systems that are not prone to damage during weather changes. In other words, they can develop mitigation and adaptation strategies and implement agrarian programs. Also, governments can include researchers who can come up with ways in which agricultural sectors can benefit from sustainable farming practices. Global donors can also play a key role. They can identify finance mechanisms that can be used to sustain various systems and interventions that build on the enormous potential synergies between climate change and agriculture. In simple terms, when world leaders prioritize food security as a re ...
RUNNING Head: IMPACTS ON FOOD SYSTEMS. 1
IMPACTS ON FOOD SYSTEMS 8
Impacts of Food Systems.
Students Name.
Institutional Affiliation.
Impacts on food systems.
Introduction
Sustainability in food systems entails the provision of the food security and nutrition which are essential to maintain and promote the living condition of the people under the earth (Ericksen, Ingram, & Liverman, 2009). The food system is according to the four pillar that defines its implication in any society. These four pillars are stability, availability, utilization and access. According to Food and Agriculture Organization, food security refers to “all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”(Source, FAO SOFI 2011).
When four pillars are conjoined together with the sustainability and nutrition, a desirable food system foundation is therefore achieved. With such food programs, they will mainly lead in making a multiple SDS (Sustainable Development Goals). Because of these to monitor and provide a desirable food system in any country, a Global Food System Index is crucial in tracking and monitoring progress. In the ultimate of the global food system, we address the six important dimensions by the GFSI which traces their progression. These critical dimensions are social sustainability, health and nutrition consumptions, environmental productivity, climate and ecological sustainability and market dynamics (Shown in Figure 1).
Therefore the ideal goal of a food system tries to effectively dialogue challenges to ecological and human welfare transversely in all of its phases. The dimension arrives from the theories and concepts involving food systems which will inform and guide the relevant managerial personnel in their decisions after the consideration of the report on the available data’s provided in concern of the behaviors portrayed by the target group like tourists in any environment when food is involved for life sustenance.
Global economic growth in investments, trade, food and Market Dynamic
Food system synthesis propels the global financial increase in investment, trade and food prices — they makeup all that happens and is the boundaries of the market dynamic as stated to be one of the critical dimensions guiding the food systems and its synthesis. To have a desirable food system, we require to have: an interaction in food supply chains which functions with all fundamental priors in the whole food system and also a well-operating trade and market dynamics (McCarthy, Lipper, & Branca, 2011). Using good trade and market strategies we can regulate and reduce the adverse effects caused by the market astonishment and hence drastically.
Climate Resilient Agriculture an Approach to Reduce the Ill-Effect of Climate...UditDebangshi
Climate resilient agriculture (CRA) is a sustainable
approach for converting and reorienting agricultural systems to
support food security under the new realities of climate change
through different adaptation and mitigation mechanisms.
Agricultural systems are extremely vulnerable to climate change, given their sensitivity to variations in different threats like temperature, precipitation and incidence of natural events and disasters such as droughts and floods with this on an average the extreme weather patterns can impact farm incomes in the range of 15-18 %. Threats can be reduced by increasing the adaptive capacity of farmers as well as increasing resilience and resource use efficiency in agricultural production systems. CRA promotes synchronized actions by farmers, government, scientist, private sector, and policy-makers through three main action areas: (1) Building the capacity to identify the threats; (2) Curing the threats through adaptation and mitigation process (3) Sustain their adaptive mechanisms over a long time. The vulnerability of existing conditions of poverty, malnutrition and increasing populations puts intense pressure on finite natural resources, especially land, water and energy – all of which are integral to agricultural systems. In this context, it becomes imperative to adopt Climate-Resilient Agriculture (CRA) measures at cooperative scale to address the impending impact of climate change on agriculture.
Strategies for managing climate risk: a case study of smallholder farmers in ...Premier Publishers
This study analyses the factors affecting Ethiopian farmers’ choice of ex-ante adaptation and ex-post coping strategies for climate risk. We use multivariate probit models to explain the choice of various adaptation and coping strategies. We find that plot characteristics such as slope, depth, soil type and soil fertility, and farm size are important factors affecting the choice of adaptation strategy. These plot characteristics also significantly affect the choice of particular coping strategies such as selling livestock, reducing meals and borrowing. The results also show that plot management practices such as leaving crop residues, intercropping and use of non-recycled hybrid maize are associated with a reduced likelihood of choosing coping measures such as selling livestock. We advocate increased farmer education on improved farm management practices to reduce household vulnerability to climate change and variability.
Agriculture-Nutritious Foods: Impact of Climate Change (Temperature and Preci...BRNSSPublicationHubI
Climate change is not global warming; it is only one component of climate change as defined by WMO/IPCC/
UNFCCC. The two main climatic parameters that play vital role in agriculture production are temperature
and precipitation. Temperature presents high seasonal and annual variations, which form irregular variations
part under natural variability of climate change. Since, around the past two decades groups are polluting
agriculture research under the disguise of global warming which is insignificant when compared to seasonal
and annual variations. Agriculture is adopted to such vagaries. Countries like USA and Australia moving
past to renewable energy but country like India, second most populous after China contributing to around
50% of thermal power production similar to USA; and USA and India contributing to around 25% of the
nuclear and hydropower, respectively. The modern agriculture system from 1960, new seeds are tailored to
chemical inputs and now genetically modified (GM) seeds entered India. In such scenarios, reports say that,
the two major crops, namely, rice and wheat that are distributed under Public Distribution System (PDS).
Reports also say that the strength and nutrition quality are reduced by 45% by now and will be reducing to
100% by 2040. According to FAO around 30% of what is produced is going as waste; but it is more than
40% for India excluding illegal exports; PDS rice entering black market.
Extreme weather events and their impact on urban crop production: A case of K...Innspub Net
Extreme weather events are anticipated to increase the existing challenges and generate new combination of vulnerabilities, especially in developing countries. The agricultural sector is the most vulnerable due to overreliance on unpredictable rainfall. This study examined the impact of extreme weather events on urban crop production and the adaptation strategies applied by the farmers. Secondary data were collected through a literature survey and primary data were collected using structured interviews, observations and focus group discussions. A total of 108 crop farmers were interviewed in two wards of Kinondoni District. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 20 was used to analyze the data and Pearson Chi-square was used to test the statistical significance between variables. The study observed that, farmers perceived extreme weather events including floods (39%), extreme temperatures (36%), and drought (25%). These extreme weather events affected negatively crop production leading damaging of crops and low yields (38%), outbreak of crop pests and disease (38%), drying of water sources (20%), and loss of soil fertility (4%). Crop farmers used various adaptation strategies such as crop diversification (28%), the use of pesticides (23%), changing of cropping patterns and planting calendar (16%), irrigation practices (18%) and replanting (10%). The study recommends for adoption of new farming systems such as vertical farming systems for better output with the use of limited water and land resources.
A WFP and ODI joint report showing food security risks in the Middle East and North Africa from climate change, as well as other vulnerability interactions, e.g. with population growth, urbanisation, and conflict.
Agriculture in developing countries must undergo a significant transformation in order to meet the related challenges of achieving food security and responding to climate change. Projections based on population growth and food consumption patterns indicate that agricultural production will need to increase by at least 70 percent to meet demands by 2050. Most estimates also indicate that climate change is likely to reduce agricultural productivity, production stability and incomes in some areas that already have high levels of food insecurity. Developing climate-smart agriculture is thus crucial to achieving future food security and climate change goals. This seminar describe an approach to deal with the above issue viz. Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) and also examines some of the key technical, institutional, policy and financial responses required to achieve this transformation. Building on cases from the field, the seminar try to outlines a range of practices, approaches and tools aimed at increase the resilience and productivity of agricultural product systems, while also reducing and removing emissions. A part of the seminar elaborates institutional and policy options available to promote the transition to climate-smart agriculture at the smallholder level. Finally, the paper considers current gaps and makes innovative suggestion regarding the combined use of different sources, financing mechanism and delivery systems.
To Review the Impact and Copping Strategies of Climate Change in Developing C...AI Publications
Rapid change in climate is set to alter the delicate balance that exists between man and nature. The literature to this effect points out that the poorest countries and communities are likely to suffer the most because of their geographic locations, low income and low institutional capacity, as well as their greater reliance on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture. Even if climate mitigations plans are implemented properly there will be some degree of warming due to inertia of emissions already released. As such, there is a strong consensus about the need of adaptation to changing climatic conditions. Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. Adaptation is believed to enhance the resilience against increasing climate variability. In this backdrop, the objective of the present paper is, therefore, to systematically and critically review the existing literature on the impacts of climate change and choice of adaptations across countries and draw insights for suggesting a comprehensive policy framework particularly for developing countries in this regard. The paper finds that the role of government and civil society is crucial for enabling efficient adaptation methods. Development policies and programs having synergy effect with climate change initiatives help adapt with the changing climate better. However, the availability of clean technology in developing countries will play the decisive role in controlling their growth rate of emission.
Impact of agro-ecosystem on risk management in agriculture in some selected a...Premier Publishers
This definite study was conducted based on the relationship of agro-ecosystem and the income level to judge the risk in farming among the respondents in the study areas. The reason for the study was to clarify the farmers about the risks and uncertainties in farming. Three Upazilas namely Gouripur, Ishwarganj and Haluaghat from Mymensingh district were selected with a view to analyzing the changes of biodiversity and its impact on income diversification. Several indexes like Shannon, richness, evenness, dominance and income diversity index were calculated for the plants, animals etc. to measure the changes among these species and its contribution on income level. The study was conducted in 2014 and the mean income index was found highest (2.15) in Ishwarganj which means the respondents were earning from more than two sources that helped them to reduce risk in farming. Most of the respondents in Ishwarganj were involved in tree plantation, animal rearing, vegetables cultivation or business that lead the highest richness indexes (2.68) and (0.61) in plant and animal rearing than other two areas. The dominance indexes were also found lowest (0.40) and (0.30) respectively that lead to the diversification of enterprises.
Effectiveness of Adaptation Measures Taken by Farmers in the Field of Effects...IJEAB
It is evident that climate change affects the well being of farmers and increases their vulnerability in the future if no action is taken into account by them. In fact, Various adaptation measures, such as crop diversification, changes in the dates of semi and crops, use of seed and fertilizer varieties, irrigation, use of tractors etc. are carried out by Farmers. However, these different measures have not yet had the same effect in reducing the negative effects of climate change on agriculture. Thus, this paper aims at evaluating empirically assess the effectiveness of these measures or strategies of adaptations on the performance of farms in Benin. Using the estimation technique of MCO, estimating the technical efficiency of farmers' production reveals that the use of improved seeds and fertilizers also reduces the negative impact of climate change In addition, land irrigation and the number of weeding remain influential factors for which we do not have the necessary statistics to assess their efficiencies
Climate Change and Its Impact on Agricultural Production: An Empirical Review...Premier Publishers
Agriculture, which is the mainstay of the economies of many developing countries, is highly depends on climatic conditions. This paper aimed at reviewing the climate change and its impacts on agricultural production with the specific objectives of reviewing the farmer’s adaptation strategies and barriers to the climate change and the impacts of climate change on agricultural production and food security in sub Saharan Africa countries. Empirical evidence shows that most of the smallholder famers in Sub-Saharan Africa have experienced the adaptation strategy of switching from planting high water-requirement to low water-requirement crops, planting diversified crops, changed planting dates to correspond to the change in the precipitation pattern and mixed cropping. The farmers’ ability to adapt to climate change has faced by access to information, extension services and access to credit. The effect of long-term mean climate change has significance impacts on global food production and affects all dimensions of food security in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure which may require ongoing adaptation. Finally, effective institutions on climate change at the global level help to facilitate the policy implementations and to combat the impact of climate change.
Food Security Production Challenges in Indonesia as Impact of Global Climate ...Agriculture Journal IJOEAR
— Global food availability, including national as well as local, is highly dependent on the natural resources that will affect crop production. Although there is rain, soil temperatures and conditions have formed a natural system that will support agricultural efforts, but this state is unstable and always changes according to atmospheric conditions in an integrated manner. Human beings on certain boundaries can intervene with the natural resources. Climate (generally a combination of rain, temperature, and sunlight) is the most important growth factor in crop production in the field. Any change in climatic conditions will have far-reaching effects on global food production. Global climate change, excessive land and land exploitation, inaccurate land management, in its time will have an impact on the food production and availability of a region. Knowing well the of nature characteristics, then anticipating the impact that will arise and determine the ways of handling it, is a series of business and activities that must be done to achieve food security. To anticipate climate change and its impacts on crop production, a broad outline can be made by considering the following physical technic aspects: 1) adjusting cropping patterns; 2) increasing the area of forest cover and catchment areas; 3) application of land and crop management technology. Some application of land and crop management technologies include: organic farming, implementation of Surjan system, food diversification, large tree planting, water pond production, etc. The policies that need to be taken as a solution in anticipating the impact of global climate change are 1) the preparation and stipulation of special food agriculture scenarios, including the zoning of production potential and zonation of climate risk (drought, flood, landslide, etc.) with the updating of data every year; 2) reducing the conversion of agricultural land (food); 3) incentives for farmers; 4) changing the consumption pattern of the people, from the consumption of rice to alternative staple foods; 5) subsidies and protection of food farming; 6) climate monitoring and prediction (early rainy season, long growing period, and potential water availability; 7) Revitalization of watershed (DAS) functions; 8) Multiply the artificial water absorption area.
Biophysical Foundations of Production and Consumption of Human Economy Source...ijtsrd
Three major problems associated with our management of the world's ecosystems are already causing significant harm to some people, particularly the poor, and unless addressed will substantially diminish the long term benefits we obtain from ecosystems First, approximately 60 15 out of 24 of the ecosystem services examined during the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment are being degraded or used unsustainably, including fresh water, capture fisheries, air and water purification, and the regulation of regional and local climate, natural hazards, and pests. The full costs of the loss and degradation of these ecosystem services are difficult to measure, but the available evidence demonstrates that they are substantial and growing. Many ecosystem services have been degraded as a consequence of actions taken to increase the supply of other services, such as food. These trade offs often shift the costs of degradation from one group of people to another or defer costs to future generations. Second, there is established but incomplete evidence that changes being made in ecosystems are increasing the likelihood of nonlinear changes in ecosystems including accelerating, abrupt, and potentially irreversible changes that have important consequences for human well being. Dr. Anshumala Chandangar "Biophysical Foundations of Production and Consumption of Human Economy Sources and Sink Functions of the Ecosystem" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-6 , October 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd47663.pdf Paper URL : https://www.ijtsrd.com/economics/other/47663/biophysical-foundations-of-production-and-consumption-of-human-economy-sources-and-sink-functions-of-the-ecosystem/dr-anshumala-chandangar
Agriculture-Nutritious Foods: Impact of Climate Change (Temperature and Preci...BRNSSPublicationHubI
Climate change is not global warming; it is only one component of climate change as defined by WMO/IPCC/
UNFCCC. The two main climatic parameters that play vital role in agriculture production are temperature
and precipitation. Temperature presents high seasonal and annual variations, which form irregular variations
part under natural variability of climate change. Since, around the past two decades groups are polluting
agriculture research under the disguise of global warming which is insignificant when compared to seasonal
and annual variations. Agriculture is adopted to such vagaries. Countries like USA and Australia moving
past to renewable energy but country like India, second most populous after China contributing to around
50% of thermal power production similar to USA; and USA and India contributing to around 25% of the
nuclear and hydropower, respectively. The modern agriculture system from 1960, new seeds are tailored to
chemical inputs and now genetically modified (GM) seeds entered India. In such scenarios, reports say that,
the two major crops, namely, rice and wheat that are distributed under Public Distribution System (PDS).
Reports also say that the strength and nutrition quality are reduced by 45% by now and will be reducing to
100% by 2040. According to FAO around 30% of what is produced is going as waste; but it is more than
40% for India excluding illegal exports; PDS rice entering black market.
Extreme weather events and their impact on urban crop production: A case of K...Innspub Net
Extreme weather events are anticipated to increase the existing challenges and generate new combination of vulnerabilities, especially in developing countries. The agricultural sector is the most vulnerable due to overreliance on unpredictable rainfall. This study examined the impact of extreme weather events on urban crop production and the adaptation strategies applied by the farmers. Secondary data were collected through a literature survey and primary data were collected using structured interviews, observations and focus group discussions. A total of 108 crop farmers were interviewed in two wards of Kinondoni District. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 20 was used to analyze the data and Pearson Chi-square was used to test the statistical significance between variables. The study observed that, farmers perceived extreme weather events including floods (39%), extreme temperatures (36%), and drought (25%). These extreme weather events affected negatively crop production leading damaging of crops and low yields (38%), outbreak of crop pests and disease (38%), drying of water sources (20%), and loss of soil fertility (4%). Crop farmers used various adaptation strategies such as crop diversification (28%), the use of pesticides (23%), changing of cropping patterns and planting calendar (16%), irrigation practices (18%) and replanting (10%). The study recommends for adoption of new farming systems such as vertical farming systems for better output with the use of limited water and land resources.
A WFP and ODI joint report showing food security risks in the Middle East and North Africa from climate change, as well as other vulnerability interactions, e.g. with population growth, urbanisation, and conflict.
Agriculture in developing countries must undergo a significant transformation in order to meet the related challenges of achieving food security and responding to climate change. Projections based on population growth and food consumption patterns indicate that agricultural production will need to increase by at least 70 percent to meet demands by 2050. Most estimates also indicate that climate change is likely to reduce agricultural productivity, production stability and incomes in some areas that already have high levels of food insecurity. Developing climate-smart agriculture is thus crucial to achieving future food security and climate change goals. This seminar describe an approach to deal with the above issue viz. Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) and also examines some of the key technical, institutional, policy and financial responses required to achieve this transformation. Building on cases from the field, the seminar try to outlines a range of practices, approaches and tools aimed at increase the resilience and productivity of agricultural product systems, while also reducing and removing emissions. A part of the seminar elaborates institutional and policy options available to promote the transition to climate-smart agriculture at the smallholder level. Finally, the paper considers current gaps and makes innovative suggestion regarding the combined use of different sources, financing mechanism and delivery systems.
To Review the Impact and Copping Strategies of Climate Change in Developing C...AI Publications
Rapid change in climate is set to alter the delicate balance that exists between man and nature. The literature to this effect points out that the poorest countries and communities are likely to suffer the most because of their geographic locations, low income and low institutional capacity, as well as their greater reliance on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture. Even if climate mitigations plans are implemented properly there will be some degree of warming due to inertia of emissions already released. As such, there is a strong consensus about the need of adaptation to changing climatic conditions. Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. Adaptation is believed to enhance the resilience against increasing climate variability. In this backdrop, the objective of the present paper is, therefore, to systematically and critically review the existing literature on the impacts of climate change and choice of adaptations across countries and draw insights for suggesting a comprehensive policy framework particularly for developing countries in this regard. The paper finds that the role of government and civil society is crucial for enabling efficient adaptation methods. Development policies and programs having synergy effect with climate change initiatives help adapt with the changing climate better. However, the availability of clean technology in developing countries will play the decisive role in controlling their growth rate of emission.
Impact of agro-ecosystem on risk management in agriculture in some selected a...Premier Publishers
This definite study was conducted based on the relationship of agro-ecosystem and the income level to judge the risk in farming among the respondents in the study areas. The reason for the study was to clarify the farmers about the risks and uncertainties in farming. Three Upazilas namely Gouripur, Ishwarganj and Haluaghat from Mymensingh district were selected with a view to analyzing the changes of biodiversity and its impact on income diversification. Several indexes like Shannon, richness, evenness, dominance and income diversity index were calculated for the plants, animals etc. to measure the changes among these species and its contribution on income level. The study was conducted in 2014 and the mean income index was found highest (2.15) in Ishwarganj which means the respondents were earning from more than two sources that helped them to reduce risk in farming. Most of the respondents in Ishwarganj were involved in tree plantation, animal rearing, vegetables cultivation or business that lead the highest richness indexes (2.68) and (0.61) in plant and animal rearing than other two areas. The dominance indexes were also found lowest (0.40) and (0.30) respectively that lead to the diversification of enterprises.
Effectiveness of Adaptation Measures Taken by Farmers in the Field of Effects...IJEAB
It is evident that climate change affects the well being of farmers and increases their vulnerability in the future if no action is taken into account by them. In fact, Various adaptation measures, such as crop diversification, changes in the dates of semi and crops, use of seed and fertilizer varieties, irrigation, use of tractors etc. are carried out by Farmers. However, these different measures have not yet had the same effect in reducing the negative effects of climate change on agriculture. Thus, this paper aims at evaluating empirically assess the effectiveness of these measures or strategies of adaptations on the performance of farms in Benin. Using the estimation technique of MCO, estimating the technical efficiency of farmers' production reveals that the use of improved seeds and fertilizers also reduces the negative impact of climate change In addition, land irrigation and the number of weeding remain influential factors for which we do not have the necessary statistics to assess their efficiencies
Climate Change and Its Impact on Agricultural Production: An Empirical Review...Premier Publishers
Agriculture, which is the mainstay of the economies of many developing countries, is highly depends on climatic conditions. This paper aimed at reviewing the climate change and its impacts on agricultural production with the specific objectives of reviewing the farmer’s adaptation strategies and barriers to the climate change and the impacts of climate change on agricultural production and food security in sub Saharan Africa countries. Empirical evidence shows that most of the smallholder famers in Sub-Saharan Africa have experienced the adaptation strategy of switching from planting high water-requirement to low water-requirement crops, planting diversified crops, changed planting dates to correspond to the change in the precipitation pattern and mixed cropping. The farmers’ ability to adapt to climate change has faced by access to information, extension services and access to credit. The effect of long-term mean climate change has significance impacts on global food production and affects all dimensions of food security in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure which may require ongoing adaptation. Finally, effective institutions on climate change at the global level help to facilitate the policy implementations and to combat the impact of climate change.
Food Security Production Challenges in Indonesia as Impact of Global Climate ...Agriculture Journal IJOEAR
— Global food availability, including national as well as local, is highly dependent on the natural resources that will affect crop production. Although there is rain, soil temperatures and conditions have formed a natural system that will support agricultural efforts, but this state is unstable and always changes according to atmospheric conditions in an integrated manner. Human beings on certain boundaries can intervene with the natural resources. Climate (generally a combination of rain, temperature, and sunlight) is the most important growth factor in crop production in the field. Any change in climatic conditions will have far-reaching effects on global food production. Global climate change, excessive land and land exploitation, inaccurate land management, in its time will have an impact on the food production and availability of a region. Knowing well the of nature characteristics, then anticipating the impact that will arise and determine the ways of handling it, is a series of business and activities that must be done to achieve food security. To anticipate climate change and its impacts on crop production, a broad outline can be made by considering the following physical technic aspects: 1) adjusting cropping patterns; 2) increasing the area of forest cover and catchment areas; 3) application of land and crop management technology. Some application of land and crop management technologies include: organic farming, implementation of Surjan system, food diversification, large tree planting, water pond production, etc. The policies that need to be taken as a solution in anticipating the impact of global climate change are 1) the preparation and stipulation of special food agriculture scenarios, including the zoning of production potential and zonation of climate risk (drought, flood, landslide, etc.) with the updating of data every year; 2) reducing the conversion of agricultural land (food); 3) incentives for farmers; 4) changing the consumption pattern of the people, from the consumption of rice to alternative staple foods; 5) subsidies and protection of food farming; 6) climate monitoring and prediction (early rainy season, long growing period, and potential water availability; 7) Revitalization of watershed (DAS) functions; 8) Multiply the artificial water absorption area.
Biophysical Foundations of Production and Consumption of Human Economy Source...ijtsrd
Three major problems associated with our management of the world's ecosystems are already causing significant harm to some people, particularly the poor, and unless addressed will substantially diminish the long term benefits we obtain from ecosystems First, approximately 60 15 out of 24 of the ecosystem services examined during the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment are being degraded or used unsustainably, including fresh water, capture fisheries, air and water purification, and the regulation of regional and local climate, natural hazards, and pests. The full costs of the loss and degradation of these ecosystem services are difficult to measure, but the available evidence demonstrates that they are substantial and growing. Many ecosystem services have been degraded as a consequence of actions taken to increase the supply of other services, such as food. These trade offs often shift the costs of degradation from one group of people to another or defer costs to future generations. Second, there is established but incomplete evidence that changes being made in ecosystems are increasing the likelihood of nonlinear changes in ecosystems including accelerating, abrupt, and potentially irreversible changes that have important consequences for human well being. Dr. Anshumala Chandangar "Biophysical Foundations of Production and Consumption of Human Economy Sources and Sink Functions of the Ecosystem" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-6 , October 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd47663.pdf Paper URL : https://www.ijtsrd.com/economics/other/47663/biophysical-foundations-of-production-and-consumption-of-human-economy-sources-and-sink-functions-of-the-ecosystem/dr-anshumala-chandangar
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Agriculture System And Climate Change A Systematic Literature Review
1. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________
*Corresponding author: E-mail: julian_witjaksono@yahoo.com;
Journal of Scientific Research & Reports
18(2): 1-9, 2018; Article no.JSRR.39661
ISSN: 2320-0227
Agriculture System and Climate Change: A
Systematic Literature Review
Rita Indrasti1
and Julian Witjaksono2*
1
Indonesian Center for Agricultural Technology Assessment and Development, Indonesia.
2
The Assessment Institute for Agricultural Technology of Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia.
Authors’ contributions
This work was carried out in collaboration between both authors. Author RI contributed in collecting
the literature related with the writing theme and selected papers which have been identified based on
the parameter and co-author conducted method of systematic review. Both authors read and
approved the final manuscript.
Article Information
DOI: 10.9734/JSRR/2018/39661
Editor(s):
(1) Rahul Kumar Jaiswal, National Institute of Hydrology, WALMI Campus, Bhopal, India.
Reviewers:
(1) Lawal Mohammad Anka, Nigeria.
(2) Sylvester Odiana, University of Benin, Nigeria.
(3) Isaac Kojo Arah, Ho Technical University, Ghana.
Complete Peer review History: http://www.sciencedomain.org/review-history/23333
Received 26
th
November 2017
Accepted 20
th
February 2018
Published 24th
February 2018
ABSTRACT
Agriculture system is still taking the high risk in order to feed the people around the world. Climate
is changing now and will have the big problem of agriculture productivity. Feeding people in the
future is not easy. We need to take some actions regarding climate change. Objectives of this
paper were addressed by performing a systematic review of both academic, scientific and grey
literature elaborating on food security and climate change. This paper discussed that it is
necessary to generate evidence that can show how and why climate vulnerability is a problem
requiring integration into development decisions. In addition, global climate impact analysis should
"come down to earth" and be validated at the local level, accounting for spatial variability, possible
adaptation responses, local resource availabilities and constraints, and socio-economic
determinants. We conclude with a recommendation for a specific action to enable farmers in the
tropics and subtropics to address climate variability and extreme events.
Keywords: Food; farmers; productivity; adaptation.
Review Article
2. Indrasti and Witjaksono; JSRR, 18(2): 1-9, 2018; Article no.JSRR.39661
2
1. INTRODUCTION
Now more than ever, the observed and
anticipated impacts of climate change are
recognized as a development challenge. Higher
temperatures, changing precipitation patterns,
more frequent and/or extreme events, and rising
sea levels will change the distribution of water
resources, the productivity of food systems, the
spread of human and animal diseases, as well as
strain critical infrastructure and networks,
disrupting ecosystems, livelihoods and
economies around the world. Climate change is
a significant driver of change for food security [1]
because it's threatens food production and its
stability as well as other aspects of food system
such as storage, food access and utilization [2].
For over 30 years it has been generally accepted
that trends towards increasing temperatures and
changing precipitation patterns in agricultural
areas will have major, generally negative,
implications for cropland productivity and will
increase stress on global food production in the
coming decades.
The food security concept was therefore defined
and delimited, after which the different pathways
leading to food security were identified. The FAO
distinguishes four aspects of food security: food
availability at local or national level, food access
(consumption) at household and individual level,
the stability of food access over time, and food
utilisation resulting in a good nutritional status –
the ultimate goal [3]. All these comprise four key
dimensions of food supplies: availability, stability,
access and utilization. According to [4] the first
dimension relates to the availability of sufficient
food, i.e., to the overall ability of the agricultural
system to meet food demand. Its subdimensions
include the agro-climatic fundamentals of crop
and pasture production (2) and the entire range
of socio-economic and cultural factors that
determine where and how farmers perform in
response to markets. The second dimension,
stability, relates to individuals who are at high
risk of temporarily or permanently losing their
access to the resources needed to consume
adequate food, either because these individuals
cannot ensure ex-ante against income shocks or
they lack enough ‘‘reserves’’ to smooth
consumption ex-post or both. The third
dimension, access, covers access by individuals
to adequate resources (entitlements) to acquire
appropriate foods for a nutritious diet. Finally,
utilization encompasses all food safety and
quality aspects of nutrition; its subdimensions are
therefore related to health, including the sanitary
conditions across the entire food chain.
Robust trends in global agricultural productivity
are emerging from the growing literature on
climate impact assessments, with clear
indications of differential responses across
regions. While climate change effects on
agriculture will be felt everywhere, some regions
will be more negatively affected than others,
while some regions may benefit from climate
warming – up to a point. Convergent results are
showing negative effects on food supply in
tropical zones but some positive effects in high-
latitude regions. Moderate warming may benefit
crops in the mid and high latitudes in the short
term. However, any warming in seasonally dry
and low-latitude regions would decrease yields
[5].
Building awareness is a critical first step towards
generating enough interest on the part of
decision-makers to demand climate vulnerability
information. It is necessary to generate evidence
that can show how and why climate vulnerability
is a problem requiring integration into
development decisions. In addition, global
climate impact analysis should “come down to
earth” and be validated at the local level,
accounting for spatial variability, possible
adaptation responses, local resource
availabilities and constraints, and socio-
economic determinants. The robust and reliable
evidence is critical to the development of policies
to address climate impacts on agriculture and
food. When used effectively, evidence can be
used to guide decisions on policy, highlight
options for policy action and also identify areas
where insufficient evidence currently exists.
However, the interaction between that
generating evidence (climate science) and the
needs of those developing policy is not
straightforward.
This paper objective was addressed by
performing a systematic review of both
academic, scientific and grey literature
elaborating on food security and climate change.
This paper presents the synthesis that resulted
from this review as well as the researcher's
critical appraisal of the state of the research field.
In this review, we consider the possible impacts
of changes in climate variability on food system
which effects on agriculture food production and
farming system as well in terms of crop growth
and crop yield under different future climate
conditions. We then briefly review some of the
3. Indrasti and Witjaksono; JSRR, 18(2): 1-9, 2018; Article no.JSRR.39661
3
major impacts of climate variability on agricultural
systems at a range of scales. We then present
some new analysis that seeks to link increases in
climate variability with increasing food insecurity
in the future, before considering the ways in
which people deal with climate variability and
vulnerability and how they may adopt in the
coming decades. We conclude with a
recommendation for a specific action to enable
farmers in the tropics and subtropics to address
climate variability and extreme events.
2. CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND ITS
IMPACT OF THE FUTURE FARMING
SYSTEM
Agriculture is a diverse economic sector that
produces food, fibre, material and energy
commodities. In most regions, agricultural
productivity is directly dependent on weather and
climate conditions – more so than any other
major economic sector. The agriculture sector
also serves a variety of purposes beyond primary
production, including nature and resource
conservation, recreation, greenhouse gas (GHG)
mitigation and various other so-called ecosystem
services [6].
Agriculture system is of central importance to
society, and climate change is a major concern
for agricultural systems and food security. Due to
the rapid expansion of international markets,
agriculture has become an increasingly
globalized sector over the course of the 20th
century. Shocks to production in individual
countries resulting from policy or climate change
can affect prices across the globe, as
demonstrated, for example, during the food price
spikes in 2008 and 2010 [7,8]. Agricultural
production is directly dependent on weather
conditions, which – together with soil conditions –
determine the conditions for plant growth.
Weather conditions can be managed to some
extent by, for example, using irrigation to
compensate for deficient rainfall or timing the
cropping season to avoid adverse weather
conditions (dry, hot, cold). Climate change is
inevitably resulting in changes in climate
variability and in the frequency, intensity, spatial
extent, duration, and timing of extreme weather
and climate events [9]. Changes in climate
variability and extremes can be visualized in
relation to changes in probability distributions,
shown in Fig. 1.
From the graphic above we can explain that the
top panel shows a shift of the entire distribution
towards a warmer climate (a change in the
mean), a situation in which more hot (and record
hot) weather would be expected, along with less
cold (and record cold) weather. The middle panel
shows a change in the probability distribution of
temperature that preserves the mean value, but
involves an increase in the variance of the
distribution: on average, the temperature is the
same, but in the future, there would be more hot
and cold (and record hot and cold) weather. The
bottom panel shows the situation in which the
temperature probability distribution preserves its
mean, but the variability evolves through a
change in asymmetry towards the hotter part of
the distribution; here, we would see near
constant cold (and record cold) weather, but
increases in hot (and record hot weather).
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change [10] “all aspects of food security
are potentially affected by climate change,
including food access, utilization, and price
stability”. While estimated impacts differ
between regions, some projects suggest yield
losses of more than 25 percent for the period
2030 to 2049 compared to the late 20th century
[10].
2.1 Impacts on Food Production and
Availability of Farming System
Changes in extremes have been observed since
1950, and there is evidence that some of these
changes are a result of anthropogenic influences,
although attribution of single extreme events to
these influences remains challenging [10].
Human influence has been detected in warming
of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in
the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and
ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes
in some climate extremes. It is extremely likely
that human influence has been the dominant
cause of the observed warming since the mid-
20
th
century [10]. Changes in temperature and
precipitation associated with continued emissions
of greenhouse gases will bring changes in land
suitability and crop yields. In particular, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) considers four families of socio-economic
development and associated emission scenarios,
known as Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios (SRES) A2, B2, A1, and B1 [11].
Of relevance to this review, of the SRES
scenarios, A1, the ‘‘business-as-usual scenario,’’
corresponds to the highest emissions, and B1
corresponds to the lowest. The other scenarios
are intermediate between these two. Depending
on the SRES emission scenario and climate
4. Indrasti and Witjaksono; JSRR, 18(2): 1-9, 2018; Article no.JSRR.39661
4
models considered, global mean surface
temperature is projected to rise in a range from
1.8°C (with a range from 1.1°C to 2.9°C for
SRES B1) to 4.0°C (with a range from 2.4°C to
6.4°C for A1) by 2100 [5]. Moreover, findings
from the Massachussets Institute of
Technology’s JPM model, published in 2009,
describe a mean surface warming in 2091–2100
of 4.1°C to 5.1°C relative to 1990, compared to
2.4°C in their previous 2003 study, and a 90
percent probability of surface warming of
between 3.5 to 7.4 degrees [12] Increased
precipitation intensity and variability are projected
to increase the risks of flooding and drought,
while higher water temperatures and changes in
extremes, including floods and droughts, are
projected to affect water quality and exacerbate
water pollution. By the 2050s, the area of land
subject to increasing water stress due to climate
change is projected to be more than double that
with decreasing water stress. While quantitative
projections of changes in precipitation, river flows
and water levels at the river-basin scale are
uncertain, it is very likely that hydrological
characteristics will change in the future [13].
[14] Use observational data to analyse how soon
the world will experience the onset of
permanently higher temperatures. They project
that many tropical regions in Africa, Asia and
South America will experience unprecedented
summer heat by 2040. The most immediate
increase will occur in the tropics, with up to 70
percent of seasons in 2010–2039 exceeding late
20th century maximums.
Fig. 1. The effect of changes in temperature distribution on extremes. Different changes of
temperature distributions between present and future climate and their effects on extreme
values of distributions: (a) Effects of simple shift of the entire distribution towards a warmer
climate; (b) effects on an increase in temperature variability with no shift of the mean; (c)
effects on altered shape of the distribution, in this example a change in asymmetry towards
the hotter part of distribution.
Source: IPCC (2014) dan adopted from Thornton et al. (2014)
5. Indrasti and Witjaksono; JSRR, 18(2): 1-9, 2018; Article no.JSRR.39661
5
Table 1. Global summary for maize, rice, wheat and soybean
Maize Rice Wheat Soybean
Mean yield change per year (%per year) 1.6 1.0 0.9 1.3
Mean yield change per year (kg/ha/year) 84 40 27 31
Projected average yield in 2025 (tons/ha/year) 6.5 4.9 3.4 3.0
Projected average yield in 2050 (tons/ha/year) 8.6 5.9 4.1 3.8
Projected production in 2025 (million tons/ha) at fixed
crop harvested area of 2008
1016 760 741 275
Projected production in 2050 (million tons/ha) at fixed
crop harvested area of 2008
1343 915 891 347
Projected production shortfall in 2025 as compared to
the rate that double production 2050 (million tons/year)
100 160 157 43
Projected production shortfall in 2050 as compared to
the rate that double production 2050 (million tons/year)
247 394 388 107
Required extra land (million hectares) to produce the
shortfall at 2025 projected yields
15 33 46 14
Required extra land (million hectares) to produce the
shortfall at 2050 projected yields
29 67 95 28
Yield in the year 2008 (tons/ha/year) 5.2 4.4 3.1 2.4
90% confidence limit in yield change (%/year) 0.8-2.4 0.5-1.4 0.1-0.8 0.3-2.0
90% confidence limit in yield change (kg/ha/year) 41-124 21-68 4-52 6-60
90% confidence limit in production in 2025 (million
tons/year) at fixed crop harvested area of 2008
640-1203 607-846 500-620 214-320
90% confidence limit in production in 2050 (million
tons/year) at fixed crop harvested area of 2008
1009-1686 769-1072 618-1182 228-442
Source: Ray et al. [19]
Numerous studies have shown that feeding a
more populated and more prosperous world will
roughly require a doubling of agricultural
production by 2050 [14,15,16,17,18] translating to
a 2.4% rate of crop production growth per year. It
is important to note that the top four global crops
– maize, rice, wheat, and soybean – are currently
witnessing average yield improvements only
between 0.9 to 1.6 percent per year, far slower
than the required rates to double their production
by 2050 solely from yield gains. This is because
yield improvements are below, 2.4% per year in
many areas of our most important agricultural
lands. At these rates maize, rice, wheat and
soybean production may increase by, 67%, 42%,
38%, and, 55% respectively, by 2050 globally.
There is a 90% chance that the total global
production increase from yields alone would be
between 34–101% for maize, 21–59% for rice,
4–76% for wheat, and 13–84% for soybean by
2050. Thus, if these yield change rates do not
increase, land clearing possibly would be needed
[17] if global food security is to increase or even
maintained (Table 1).
According to [19], top three rice and wheat
producing nations are witnessing very low yield
growth rates. China, India and Indonesia are
witnessing rice yield increases of only 0.7%,
1.0%, and 0.4% improvement per year. China,
India, and the U. S., the top three wheat
producers similarly were witnessing yield
increases of only 1.7%, 1.1%, and 0.8% per
year, respectively. At these rates, we found that
yield driven production growth in India and China
could result in nearly unchanged per capita rice
harvests, but decline steeply in Indonesia. In
many of the smaller crop-producing nations,
maize, rice, or wheat yield improvement rates are
below the 2.4% doubling rate. Elsewhere rice
yields are increasing too slowly to overcome the
impact of their population growth. Clearly, the
world faces a looming and growing agricultural
crisis. Yields are not improving fast enough to
keep up with projected demands in 2050. For
every aspect of future crop production and
climate impact, technology and local
management practices do and will play a crucial
role, and the interactions of environmental,
technological and management changes must be
better understood and better modelled.
Technological change in the agricultural sector
proceeded unevenly in the twentieth century
[19].
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6
2.2 Impacts on the Stability of Food
Supplies of Farming System
The second dimension of food security is the
stability of food supply. Temporary disruption of
supplies can have long-term impacts. The two
options for fulfilling demand – food imports and
domestic production – imply several reasons for
instability of food supplies. A major reason for
instability in the food supply is high fluctuation in
food prices (price volatility). Volatile prices lead
to poor investment strategies of producers and
immediate impacts on consumers, especially in
developing countries where consumers spend a
large share of their income on food. Another
source of instability is conflicted, which increase
food supply risks. Low and fluctuating prices are
a core problem for stable food production.
Agricultural price volatility increases the
uncertainty faced by farmers and affects their
investment decisions, productivity and income.
It should also be noted that global food prices are
determined by a small share of food products
that are traded on the global market. The share
of cereals traded compared to the volume
produced is small and has increased slightly over
the last four decades, from 9% to 13%. Annual
fluctuations in world cereal production are in the
same order of magnitude, varying from +9.8% to
–3.9% of the previous year’s production [20].
This implies that supplies to the world market
(the sum of the surplus in the supply of each
region) can be reduced by one-third or increase
two-fold. Demand in the world market does not
follow this trend, however, and probably even
moves in the opposite direction in case of poor
harvests. These yearly trends describe the risk of
discrepancy between supply and demand on the
world food market. For this reason, with open
markets, developing countries are very
vulnerable to fluctuations in global food supply
and prices and temporary protection of their own
agricultural markets are promoted for these
countries.
Agricultural prices are forecast to decline over
the next two years but to remain well above the
levels of the first half of this decade. However, by
2030–2050, the current scenarios of losses and
constraints due to climate change and
environmental degradation– with no policy
change – suggest that production increases
could fall to 0.87% towards 2030 and to 0.5% by
2030–2050 [10]. Should global agricultural
productivity rise by less than 1.2% per year on
average, then prices, rather than declining, can
be expected to rise by as much as 0.3% per
year. In addition, a production short of demand, a
greater geographical inequity in production and
demand, combined with possibly more extreme
weather and subsequent speculation in food
markets, could generate much greater price
volatility than before. In turn, this could potentially
induce a substantially greater reduction in food
security than that seen in the current crisis, if
appropriate options for increasing supply and
security are not considered and implemented.
2.3 Impacts of Climate Change on Access
to Food of Farming System
Accessibility to food concerns both physical
access and affordability. Access to markets
concerns transportation of commodities and its
costs as well as the transmission of price
developments to producers. Poor transmission of
price incentives to producers results in
broadening the gap between consumers and
producers, especially in periods of changing
diets. According to the latest UN estimates,
almost all of the world’s population growth
between 2000 and 2030 will be concentrated in
urban areas in developing countries (Fig. 2).
By 2030, almost 60% of the people in developing
countries will live in cities, if present trends
continue, urban population will equal rural
population by around 2017 [21]. Poor
connections between urban and rural areas
hinder price transmissions towards local markets,
broadening the gap between urban demand and
rural production in increasing demand for
traditional products or for product diversification.
The majority of more than 1 billion individuals
who are food insecure are small-scale farmers
living in rural areas, women and children. There
are about 500 million small-scale farmers
worldwide that support more than 2 billion
individuals – one-third of humanity. In many
developing countries, particularly in Africa and
Asia, small-scale farmers, the majority of whom
are women, produce 80 percent of the food
consumed [22]. Moreover, the evolving of a
financial crisis and economic recession are
further aggravating the stability of food system.
Energy insecurity and high energy prices will
continue negatively affect the avaibility and
access to food, particulary given that the
production, transportation and distribution of food
are reliant on energy markets. The major long-
term challenge to global food security will be to
meet the increased demand and changing diets
7. Indrasti and Witjaksono; JSRR, 18(2): 1-9, 2018; Article no.JSRR.39661
7
of the world’s rapidly increasing population, the
majority of whom will be children and youth.
According to [22] global food production must
increase by 70 percent by 2050 to keep pace
with increasing demand. In addition, the
unpredictable impacts of climate change on the
global food system, compounded by a significant
reduction and degraded environmental resource
base particularly the increasing shortage of fresh
water will further exacerbate food insecurity and
other vulnerabilities of the poor.
Just under a billion people globally do not have
adequate food to meet their basic nutritional
needs [23]. Globally, sufficient calories are
produced to feed the current population, but
access to a safe, sufficient and nutritious diet is
unequal around the world. As the global
population is expected to grow from about 7
billion [24] to more than 9 billion by mid-century,
there is the potential for the food security crisis to
deepen. The FAO has predicted [25] that
demand for food will grow by 38% by 2030 and
60% by 2050. The food security challenge, in
essence, is to meet the rising demand for food in
ways that are environmental, socially and
economically sustainable, and in the face of
evolving world-wide markets, distribution
mechanisms and global climate and
demographic changes, and by so doing provide
an acceptable, safe and nutritious diet for all. In
future, food supply (including production,
processing and distribution) must – as far as
possible – use the same or less land and fewer
inputs, produce less waste and have a lower
environmental impact [26]. This food must be
safe, nutritious and affordable, and available to
all, with improved equity of distribution, and
reflect social and cultural needs. Therefore,
pressure on production systems needs to be
reduced by helping consumers to make the right
food choices for health and sustainability.
Climate change impacts on crop yield are
different in various areas, in some regions it will
increase, in others, it will decrease which is
concerned with the latitude of the area and
irrigation application. The crop yield can be
increased with irrigation application and
precipitation increase during the crop growth;
meanwhile, crop yield is more sensitive to the
precipitation than temperature. If water
availability is reduced in the future, soil or high
water holding capacity will be better to reduce
the frequency of drought and improve the crop
yield [27]. With climate change, the growing
period will reduce and the planting dates also
need to change for higher crop production.
Climate change can decrease the crop rotation
period, so farmers need to consider crop
varieties, sowing dates, crop densities and
fertilization levels when planting crops [28].
Fig. 2. Urbanization in Developing Countries between 1960 and 2030
(Source: UNEP, 2007)
8. Indrasti and Witjaksono; JSRR, 18(2): 1-9, 2018; Article no.JSRR.39661
8
3. CONCLUSIONS
Regarding the climate change, farming system
now is facing the problems in terms of food
production, food availability and food access. On
the other hand, world population has increased
and need to be fed. Therefore, farming system
needs to be changed of mission and its vision in
the future in terms of technology particularly in
developing countries where small-scale farmers
are dominated.
COMPETING INTERESTS
Authors have declared that no competing
interests exist.
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